Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Similar estimates were given by the WHO's modeling expert yesterday already.
A rather opinionated person, plus there's no "correct" way to model a largely unknown pathogen based on unreliable reporting.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Similar estimates were given by the WHO's modeling expert yesterday already.
A rather opinionated person, plus there's no "correct" way to model a largely unknown pathogen based on unreliable reporting.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Early Pre-market trading now happening in NYC:
That implies ~ 2x multiple on TSLA over the NDX
Jan. 27, 4:03 a.m. EST
Pre-market 548.57 −16.25 (2.88%)
Jan. 27, 4:08 a.m. EST
Pre-market 546.76 −18.06 (3.20%)
NASDAQ-100 Futures dn -1.26%
Pre-market 548.57 −16.25 (2.88%)
Jan. 27, 4:08 a.m. EST
Pre-market 546.76 −18.06 (3.20%)
NASDAQ-100 Futures dn -1.26%
That implies ~ 2x multiple on TSLA over the NDX
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Update, this is the first reliable estimate I've seen about duration of the coronavirus epidemic, on a live news conference of Hong Kong university modeling experts that is ongoing right now:
Thread by @rachel_cheung1: Gabriel Leung, dean of HKU's medical school on #CoronavirusOutbreak: basic reproductive number - secondary cases generated by an index infec…
"Epidemic curves with or without population quarantine are very similar, so the policy may not have a substantial impact on the course of outcome. In other major Chinese cities, the outbreak will reach its peak in April/May, and die down in June/July, says Leung."
I.e. about a month longer than my SARS based coarse estimate. Q1 GF3 production and deliveries would be impacted I suspect.
Their latest estimated R0 is lower than some of the previous estimates, at 2.1.
They also outlined their hypothesis that mildly infected patients are less infectious. This would be good news for international containment.
Last edited:
There are 3 authors of the paper.
This is one of them:
Yaneer Bar-Yam - Wikipedia
Can you source your WHO data?
Latest im seeing from them is this:
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...126-sitrep-6-2019--ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=beaeee0c_4
Last edited:
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
That's their official communique, which is, in part, politics.
The WHO's modeling expert is Professor Ferguson, who yesterday estimated 100,000 patients:
But I take back my remark about Nassim Nicholas Taleb, I've just read up his tweeting history, and he's opinionated and a bit arrogant, but entertainingly honest and mostly right.
Anyway, what Taleb says, what Ferguson estimated and the Hong Kong models are mostly in agreement.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
I had a look on the impact of the SARS epidemic (end of 2002 to mid 2003) on NASDAQ: up about 20% over that time period.
I don't think you should link the possible length of this epidemic to GF3 production in Q1. There is no direct link between the two. There is only a link with the length of containment measures (mandatory factory closures, travel limitations, etc). Those will not last to April/May. It's not like Chinese businesses will go in lockdown for several months.
Opening is going to be a bloodbath across everything, hopefully we see a recovery throughout the day.
(Pointless comparing to impact from viruses in China from almost 20 years ago. Chinese market is far bigger today and far more important to many large cap US firms.)
We should really be prepared in the short term for what the worst case scenario will be for Tesla if it loses (temporarily) Shanghai production and has heavily reduced China sales for Q1 and into Q2, and then in the medium term what a large China economic slowdown will do for US & EU economies, and how that may impact sales in those regions. Again just a worse case scenario, but it’s more probable than it was a week ago.
Thank goodness the model Y is just around the quarter, which will be a massive positive to offset any potential weakness.
(Pointless comparing to impact from viruses in China from almost 20 years ago. Chinese market is far bigger today and far more important to many large cap US firms.)
We should really be prepared in the short term for what the worst case scenario will be for Tesla if it loses (temporarily) Shanghai production and has heavily reduced China sales for Q1 and into Q2, and then in the medium term what a large China economic slowdown will do for US & EU economies, and how that may impact sales in those regions. Again just a worse case scenario, but it’s more probable than it was a week ago.
Thank goodness the model Y is just around the quarter, which will be a massive positive to offset any potential weakness.
Political influences and the china virus is one, impeachment uncertainties are another, create usually an overreaction driven by fear.
As the virus has actually zero correlation with the performance of Tesla as a company unless GF3 productivity is impacted or the global economy will go down because of it which is hard to imagine, you have today morning a real nice buy opportunity.
Over the years at the stock market I always thought that this connection should be seen as an easy to identify pattern and investors will learn over time and adjust, instead I learned they do not. Whenever something unexpected happens that creates fear and the media is reporting constantly about it the stock market is going down for irrational reasons and later even higher up.
No one including myself knows if that pattern will happen here again but the likelihood it does is much higher than the risk it to be this time different.
Also, although infections will for good reasons rise and the up to 14 day until symptoms appear are bad in coordination with spreading the virus and no one knows you have it, its nothing else than a virus that we have every year and every year people who are weak or have other complications are dying.
Our brain considers a treat to be more dangerous the more often its reported to us while the true threat may be ignored. The likelihood for us all to die in traffic or by a hard stroke today is much higher than getting the virus but our brain does not work in likelihoods and prefers to run away.
Today is easy money for those who understand human behavior.
As the virus has actually zero correlation with the performance of Tesla as a company unless GF3 productivity is impacted or the global economy will go down because of it which is hard to imagine, you have today morning a real nice buy opportunity.
Over the years at the stock market I always thought that this connection should be seen as an easy to identify pattern and investors will learn over time and adjust, instead I learned they do not. Whenever something unexpected happens that creates fear and the media is reporting constantly about it the stock market is going down for irrational reasons and later even higher up.
No one including myself knows if that pattern will happen here again but the likelihood it does is much higher than the risk it to be this time different.
Also, although infections will for good reasons rise and the up to 14 day until symptoms appear are bad in coordination with spreading the virus and no one knows you have it, its nothing else than a virus that we have every year and every year people who are weak or have other complications are dying.
Our brain considers a treat to be more dangerous the more often its reported to us while the true threat may be ignored. The likelihood for us all to die in traffic or by a hard stroke today is much higher than getting the virus but our brain does not work in likelihoods and prefers to run away.
Today is easy money for those who understand human behavior.
100% agree. It may turn into a big nothing burger, but it is not very helpful to compare this to SARS. China had barely joined the WTO then. It was a much smaller economy, it's grown by over 6% annually for 17 years since then.
China is a completely different country than it was in 2003. In 2003 there were 3 subway lines in Beijing. Now there are 25.
Beijing's Incredible Subway Expansion In One GIF | HuffPost
Instead of tanking the Chinese economy and therefore the world economy, the Chinese government might also decide that - once containment fails - it is better to just let the epidemic rage, with extra protection for the weak and elderly. Then it will simply be like the yearly flu epidemic (the flu kills half a million people worldwide every year), but worse.
By the way, if reports are true that a lot more people - hundreds of thousands - are infected/sick, then it would probably mean the mortality rate is much lower than reported. The number of mortalities is generally registered more thoroughly than the number of sick people.
By the way, if reports are true that a lot more people - hundreds of thousands - are infected/sick, then it would probably mean the mortality rate is much lower than reported. The number of mortalities is generally registered more thoroughly than the number of sick people.
EV sales growing faster than expected
Sales of electrified vehicles — particularly plug-in hybrids and full battery electrics — are growing faster than expected, according to a new study from Boston Consulting Group.
Electrified vehicles — which stand at about 8 percent of global sales — will account for a third of sales by 2025, according to a report released this month, up from the company's previously forecast one-fourth of sales.
Aside from plug-ins and full electric vehicles, the company's definition of electrified includes conventional and mild hybrids.
EV sales are expected to surpass internal-combustion-engine vehicle sales by 2030, taking 51 percent of the market.
Sales of electrified vehicles — particularly plug-in hybrids and full battery electrics — are growing faster than expected, according to a new study from Boston Consulting Group.
Electrified vehicles — which stand at about 8 percent of global sales — will account for a third of sales by 2025, according to a report released this month, up from the company's previously forecast one-fourth of sales.
Aside from plug-ins and full electric vehicles, the company's definition of electrified includes conventional and mild hybrids.
EV sales are expected to surpass internal-combustion-engine vehicle sales by 2030, taking 51 percent of the market.
I'm going to take the over on 51 percent in 2030.
And I'll take the under on 2030 being the year where a majority of vehicles are electric.
This transition is going to go much faster than people are anticipating.
According to carsonight GF1 is producing between 7k and 8k packs per week.
Last quarter Tesla produced M3s at a rate of (87k * 4 /52)= 6.7k per week.
Excluding any inventory packs or local production we shouldn't expect GF3 to produce vehicles at a rate any better than 1.3k per week (17k) on average this quarter.
When local production starts we should be able to see it from the drone videos.
Last quarter Tesla produced M3s at a rate of (87k * 4 /52)= 6.7k per week.
Excluding any inventory packs or local production we shouldn't expect GF3 to produce vehicles at a rate any better than 1.3k per week (17k) on average this quarter.
When local production starts we should be able to see it from the drone videos.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Or to quote Herbert Diess, the CEO of Volkswagen:
“There’s a misperception about the automotive industry.”
“An industry such as ours can crash a lot faster than many would like to believe. Take a look at the automotive industry in Italy or Great Britain: it’s almost non-existent. Our industry once flourished in Detroit, bringing prosperity. The USA and China sense there is an opportunity to challenge our supremacy as regards the car of the future. And they are making headway. I put our chances of retaining our leading position at 50:50.”
“An industry such as ours can crash a lot faster than many would like to believe. Take a look at the automotive industry in Italy or Great Britain: it’s almost non-existent. Our industry once flourished in Detroit, bringing prosperity. The USA and China sense there is an opportunity to challenge our supremacy as regards the car of the future. And they are making headway. I put our chances of retaining our leading position at 50:50.”
And that was in 2018, when Tesla was still struggling with the Model 3 ramp-up.
I'll take the under on 50% chance of Volkswagen/Germany retaining their leading position in the automotive industry.
I think it's less than 10% chance
OT
@SageBrush
Dr Anthony Faucci of NIH was on NPR this am describing the 5 cases in US and how quarantined and pointed out 1 year for vaccine, 3 months for preliminary things. (Clinical trials ‘n such)
They are going as fast as possible.
(as an aside, things are accelerating. What took my spouse 3-4 years of dna sequencing, ~48,000 base pairs both directions, by hand, can be done after lunch at the push of a button in a few hours)
in addition to the sage advice given by @Fact Checking, I would urge you to study this monthly chart I posted at the end of last week.
Although past performance is not a guide to future, we do see a pattern, and over the years I’ve been following this stock, it’s repeated more often than not.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
