Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

I doubt GF3's production would be affected by the virus outbreak. I believe most of their workers are from rural area across the country. It is very unlikely that they live in those cities on lockdown. Unless things get much worse, most of them should be able to return to the factory after Chinese new year. As for the MIC M3 demand side, Im not sure what would happen in lie of virus breakout.

So there's three potential interactions of the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak with GF3 production and sales.

Firstly, containment measures in Shanghai:

• Shanghai today closed bus traffic to all other provinces:
• 上海省际客运站发送与到达所有班车、省际包车停运
  
• Suzhou (big city next to Shanghai) ordered businesses to close longer than the spring festival:
• China's Suzhou to extend new year holiday on virus fears
  
• Shanghai Disneyland has closed and Shanghai shut down all cinemas:
• Shanghai shuts down all cinemas during Lunar New Year holidays: local paper
  
• First death in Shanghai was reported yesterday:
• Shanghai Reports First Death From China Coronavirus

Shanghai is apparently implementing Beijing's containment measures, with a time delay. Next move would be the closing of schools and universities.

These measures might eventually impact the movement of the GF3 workforce.

Secondly, we don't know how much interstate supply chain of Tesla is affected by the containment measures, but some automakers are already hit hard:

Global carmaker and luxury brands hit as coronavirus shuts down Wuhan - CNN​

At minimum the delivery of new cars to other provinces might be impacted.

Third, it's unclear how Tesla's China demand will be impacted:

• travel restrictions and fear of infections would reduce demand,
• the desire to but a private method of transportation not exposed to strangers and Biodefense Mode would increase demand.

 

[Mike Smith]

I doubt GF3's production would be affected by the virus outbreak. I believe most of their workers are from rural area across the country. It is very unlikely that they live in those cities on lockdown. Unless things get much worse, most of them should be able to return to the factory after Chinese new year. As for the MIC M3 demand side, Im not sure what would happen in lie of virus breakout.

GF3 is planning to start a second shift soon, so I'm sure they've already been hiring and that many of these workers could start earlier if need be.

 

[Prunesquallor]

So for you profitability prognosticators:

What is the effect of reduced GF Shanghai output on Q1 numbers?

 

[Fred42]

GF3 is planning to start a second shift soon, so I'm sure they've already been hiring and that many of these workers could start earlier if need be.

To build a car you need 100% of the parts. It seems unlikely that delivery of no part they need will be affected if this continues.

 

[madodel]

Here's a (very) fresh summary of all scientific Wuhan coronavirus R0 estimates:

View attachment 504645​

The freshest estimate is the highest, by Chinese authors - presumably based on very fresh data.

Here's a specific infection case study from The Lancet:

View attachment 504647​

The important takeaway is that infection in most cases seems flu-alike, and that Patient 6, a young child of the family, remained uninfected due to the use of facemasks.

Probably an insignificant data point, but I hear that my local hospital has 2 cases of confirmed Coronavirus and we are over 100 miles from NYC, and we have a huge base of commuters to NYC who live here. But the main illness filling up the hospital right now is Flu, Type A. But considering how this virus was labelled as difficult to transmit it sure is spreading pretty quick.

EDIT: BTW watching Pandemic on Netflix. Mostly centered on Flu and Ebola, but fascinating.

 

[SageBrush]

But considering how this virus was labelled as difficult to transmit it sure is spreading pretty quick.

Just the opposite -- Read the RO analyses.

Facemask. It is effective Vs influenza as well. Will Merkins catch on ? A lot later than the Chinese.

 

[lascavarian]

My only basis for this is how humans completely underestimated cpu/bus/memory needs... like forever. I still think this is the 64kb, 8 bit version by alalogy.

It is a thought. No one knows what the requirement will be IMO until it is done. My original IBM PC in 1981 came with only 48kb but it ran Visicalc and had a great keyboard. I trust Tesla will get it right in the end and I welcome helping them get there.

 

[madodel]

Just the opposite -- Read the RO analyses.

Facemask. It is effective Vs influenza as well. Will Merkins catch on ? A lot later than the Chinese.

Note, basic facemasks will work keeping secretions contained if worn properly by an infected person, but probably not for someone who comes in contact with someone who is infected. Get secretions from a contaminated person on your hand and you can end up inoculating yourself. It is all about limiting secretion spread.

 

[Open Interest]

I've been predicting the next major refresh of the Model X will include a built-in Keurig...

Oh my gosh, I would purchase immediately!!!

 

[SageBrush]

Note, basic facemasks will work keeping secretions contained if worn properly by an infected person, but probably not for someone who comes in contact with someone who is infected. Get secretions from a contaminated person on your hand and you can end up inoculating yourself. It is all about limiting secretion spread.

It is both.
The inoculum matters, not only to conversion from sub-clinical to active disease but to disease severity.

Please do not play at what you do not understand.

 

[HG Wells]

Just the opposite -- Read the RO analyses.

Facemask. It is effective Vs influenza as well. Will Merkins catch on ? A lot later than the Chinese.

And how many face masks are available in the US ?
In China everybody already had one or more from previous viruses.

Personally I have a box of N95's from back in 2013.
Recommend everyone buy at least one or two. They could sell out fast. Home Depot has them.

If its only a 2% chance of becoming serious a $10 investment is worth it.

 

[ammulder]

Oh my gosh, I would purchase immediately!!!

I know, right? It's the only advantage a Fuel Cell car has -- it generates water you can feed right into the Keurig.

 

[SageBrush]

I'm feeling a bit depressed by the US response. In typical fashion they want to throw money at vaccine development when the immediate response should be public health measures, specifically house quarantine for 72-96 hours with facemask for any asymptomatic visitors to affected areas and isolation until test negative for any recent exposure and GI/Respiratory symptoms.

 

[Green Pete]

It may just be me but I feel like there has been an increasing hostility between people over the last few weeks, which seems odd given everyone should be pretty happy given what the stock did. I recall seeing some very well known and active members who contribute excellent info on a regular basis appear to be at each others throats due to differing opinions how much more the stock would go up, which unto itself seems like a ridiculous think for a bunch of bulls to be arguing about. I realize investing is serious business, but there seems to be a level of politeness missing that was the norm before. Sorry if its just me who feels that way.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think it sounds better in a Bob Dylan voice...

RIP Kobe

Thanks brother, what a tragic end. Kobe's helicopter when down in fog shortly after takeoff. Bryant's 13 yr-old daughter was aboard. He was just 41.

Returning to our reading of the tea leaves, recall that Elon released "Rip Harumbe" on SoundCloud on Mar 31, 2019 (the day he would had the preliminary numbers for 2019Q1 P&D.

This year, Elon tweeted "Meteor" on Jan 17, the day before Tesla announced the date for the 2019Q4 earnings call.

Seeing a pattern yet? No? Well on Sat, Jan 25,2020 Elon tweeted this:

"Meme necromancy"

​

Back from the dead, Harumbe? Toss a coin to your witcher? I'm buying the dip.

#memeworld

 

[UncaNed]

Could somebody please link to or repost the helpful colorful graphic evaluating an options chain I saw on this forum last week or so? I think it illustrated the value of various options strikes and expirations in red-to-green gradient....?

It would be much appreciated.

 

[MaxPain]

Could somebody please link to or repost the helpful colorful graphic evaluating an options chain I saw on this forum last week or so? I think it illustrated the value of various options strikes and expirations in red-to-green gradient....?

It would be much appreciated.

Options profit calculator

 

[dw4ngg]

It may just be me but I feel like there has been an increasing hostility between people over the last few weeks, which seems odd given everyone should be pretty happy given what the stock did. I recall seeing some very well known and active members who contribute excellent info on a regular basis appear to be at each others throats due to differing opinions how much more the stock would go up, which unto itself seems like a ridiculous think for a bunch of bulls to be arguing about. I realize investing is serious business, but there seems to be a level of politeness missing that was the norm before. Sorry if its just me who feels that way.

Mo money mo problems

 

[FrankSG]

Could somebody please link to or repost the helpful colorful graphic evaluating an options chain I saw on this forum last week or so? I think it illustrated the value of various options strikes and expirations in red-to-green gradient....?

It would be much appreciated.

Do you mean this one?

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

 

[ZeApelido]

Influenza virus is very different from a coronavirus:

View attachment 504641​

There were only two coronavirus outbreaks in history, SARS and MERS, with very high mortality rates: 14% and 25%.

The "corona" are those appendages on the virus which make it so deadly, it attaches very easily to all sorts of cells.

Fortunately current strains of the Wuhan coronavirus appear to be much more mild, but there's significant uncertainties, which is part of the reason of the "freaking out".

Don't really understand what the big deal is. Just avoid this fine Mexican import