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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Since there seems to be a fascination with the Taycan's range here.

Porsche Taycan Turbo Crushes EPA Range Rating On Our 436-Mile Drive

Had we been driving in 70-degree temperatures and no rain the range would have been even better. Even with the cold weather and rain, we averaged 2.96 miles per kWh over the 436-mile trip. If you multiply that consumption rate by the 83.7 usable capacity the Taycan Turbo has, you come up with 248-miles of range per charge. That's not bad, and much better than the EPA range rating of 201 miles per charge. The car's remaining range estimator was a little more conservative and if you add the miles driven with the estimated remaining range you get a trip average of 235 miles per charge, still way better than EPA.

So why the huge discrepancy? I honestly don't know. I've driven pretty much all of the EVs available today, and I usually agree with the EPA range rating. EV range is a moving target; there are a lot of factors that influence how far any EV can go. We already talked about battery temperature and weather conditions like rain we experienced above. Topography is another. We did lose 1,000 ft of elevation from Atlanta to Daytona Beach so that was helpful, but not really enough to make that much of a difference over a 436-mile drive.
People who regularly do drive BEV between Florida and Atlanta or pretty much anywhere East of there they become accustomed to two things. First, the prevailing winds out of the North and Second, the effects of even modest altitude changes and hilly area. I normally plan for about a 20% penalty Northbound and a similar benefit Southbound. The difference is notable to efficiency, not so much viscerally. After driving Miami-Atlanta north and return every few months I've been accustomed to that. When I had a P85D the Northbound trip seemed to require at least three charging stops , when returning it was always two, sometimes three. . My current P3D is enough more efficient that the Northbound stop is usually two. Southbound is normally one. I admit that my typical driving is somewhat more Porsche-style than it would be Toyota-style. No question YMMV.

As for Taycan, cars tuned for Performance do tend to more penalties in the EPA test cycle, or so it seem to me. Either way, if I did not have Tesla, the Taycan would be tempting. I had two 911 and loved them back in ICE days.
 
Looks like TSLA moved to catch up with the Nasdaq. We were way below where the market was so that move back to -1.5% for the day before it hit a wall was warranted.
Looks more like a 'forced march'. That move from $543 to $556 was near linear. I suggest somebody wants some more cheap shares... Oop, and its $558 now. :cool:

TSLA.2020-01-27.12-43.png



Yeah, mostly matched the moves on the NDX, but much less bumpy to $555, which is of course a big SP tgt for obvious reasons. Let's see where we close.

Cheers!
 
This may have already been posted, but it was new to me and so there may be others who haven't seen it:

Auto Trader New Car Awards 2019 | Most loved brand - Tesla

Full story here: Most Loved Brand 2019 – Tesla

Some relevant excerpts:

Brand appeal is something that’s very difficult to quantify. Why? Because everyone who favours one brand over the rest will have very different reasons for doing so, and these reasons are usually are built on preferences and experiences that differ greatly from person to person.

That’s why the only real way to get a handle on brand appeal is to talk directly to the individuals in question, and happily, that’s what our research is all about. And it seems that the brand that’s formed the biggest connection with its customer base in 2019 is Tesla.

Like all our awards, this category was decided by feedback collated from a survey of more than 60,000 car owners, all of whom rated their car in 16 key areas. That means an Auto Trader New Car Award is a real stamp of approval from people that live with the car day-in, day-out, and it makes each winner a true consumer champion.

Here are just a few of the comments Tesla owners made about their cars…

  • “It’s the greatest car I have even owned. I bought it for my wife and kids to keep them safe, and make my mark for a better planet. Space, performance, tech features, gets better with age, never needs fuel. Better on every metric.”
  • “Insanely safe for all the family. The car feels strong and controlled, even on snow and ice.”
  • “It doesn’t cause any air pollution. I can look my children in the eye and say I didn’t contribute to doing that.”
  • “Loaded with innovative technology, and the fact it is electric.”

Commenting on Tesla’s victory in this category, Auto Trader’s road test editor, Ivan Aistrop, said: “Our research shows that pioneering technology and the feel-good factor of electric motoring certainly play their part in Tesla owners’ enthusiasm about their cars, but there’s more to it than that. Tesla has managed to make electric motoring cool, and that’s a trick that not many other electric car manufacturers have managed to pull off so far. What owning a Tesla says about you seem to be as important to owners as the car itself, and for a company trying to build brand loyalty and desirability, that’s a master stroke.”
 
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Pretty surprised at the lack of downward pressure from bears/shorts both today and on Friday. Would have been a good time to do a bear raid because volume on Friday and today has been lower than what the average has been for the past 1-2 months by quite a bit. Dare I say bears & shorts are too afraid of what's on that earnings call to initiate a bear raid???
 
Looks more like a 'forced march'. That move from $543 to $556 was near linear. I suggest somebody wants some more cheap shares... Oop, and its $558 now. :cool:

View attachment 504812


Yeah, mostly matched the moves on the NDX, but much less bumpy to $555, which is of course a big SP tgt for obvious reasons. Let's see where we close.

Cheers!
Now it appears it has its eyes set on the S&P percentages haha outperforming at the moment
 
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Pretty surprised at the lack of downward pressure from bears/shorts both today and on Friday. Would have been a good time to do a bear raid because volume on Friday and today has been lower than what the average has been for the past 1-2 months by quite a bit. Dare I say bears & shorts are too afraid of what's on that earnings call to initiate a bear raid???

I observed that the bear presure is related to the overall market quit ofen. My guess is that the liquidity of the not-for-profit shorts is somehow related to the overall market.
 
A couple of quick thoughts on macros / coronavirus. I am seeing some good news today: mainly, mild severity / lack of local transmission in countries where the virus has been imported; reports of a drop in persons within Wuhan presenting with fever at hospitals; estimations of lower reproduction numbers (~1.5-2.5) than previously estimated, and signs of symptoms presenting earlier than previously estimated (~5 days, as opposed to up to 14).

If (big if) the trend of good news holds through Thursday, the collective sigh of relief could be rocket fuel to a good earnings call for TSLA.
 
The recently resigned Illinois state senator Martin Sandoval was the transportation committee chairman supported by car dealerships who last year proposed that the annual registration (license plate) fee for EVs be raised from $17.50 to $1000. Eventually the raise was to $248 for EVs, and $148 (from $101) for ICE. My primary complaint is that unlike the gasoline tax, car usage is not correlated.

Chicago Tribune - today: Ex-state Sen. Martin Sandoval charged with bribery in red light camera scheme
 
Pretty surprised at the lack of downward pressure from bears/shorts both today and on Friday. Would have been a good time to do a bear raid because volume on Friday and today has been lower than what the average has been for the past 1-2 months by quite a bit. Dare I say bears & shorts are too afraid of what's on that earnings call to initiate a bear raid???
Or the market has now begun to understand that Tesla has achieved an iconic brand moment, like the iphone, where it is valued on its brand alone, and is an EV second.
 
One last macro thought of which some might not be aware: in US politics, some Republican senators are telegraphing that they may back a call for witnesses in the impeachment of Donald Trump. As we all know, the market doesn't like uncertainty and there may be some derisking as a result of an increased likelihood of his removal.

EDIT: And right on cue...

Maggie Haberman on Twitter

Maggie Haberman
@maggieNYT


Confirming
@ABC
on White House preparing for likelihood of witnesses - and preparing to fight a Bolton subpoena in court.
 
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Yes, 2/21 is very risky. I strictly consider them to be lottery tickets. However, I was lucky enough to buy them before the run up to ~$570 and created a calendar spread at that time by selling 1/31 options at the same strike. So at least they're "free" lottery tickets. :D (And if my sold 1/31 options end up ITM, well, this board will be very rich indeed.)
Well I just sold and bought lotto 1/31 earnings calls w the profits :)
 
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