Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SageBrush]

We believe investor optimism about TSLA’s addressable market for electric vehicles, volume growth trajectory, and, most importantly, sustainable profits/cash flow inflection is overblown.”

I wonder how many of those bozos realize that inflection is a second derivative ?

 

[Sudre]

Heh:

First Principle Investor ᴺᵒᵗ ᶜᶠᵃ on Twitter


First Principle Investor ᴺᵒᵗ ᶜᶠᵃ
@1stPrincipleInv

Just to provide some perspective. #NotSellingAShareBefore5000
......
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So in a year and a half. LOL!
​

 

[Unpilot]

No honest reasons that's for sure.

Unfortunately they are just doing their job

 

[ZeApelido]

Just saw a Model Y casually down a main street in Redwood City.

It's happening..

 

[Tim S]

Does anyone remember what time of day the earnings were released for Q3?

Fred's Electrek story was published at 4:57 PM ET, so probably a few minutes before that.

 

[SageBrush]

Here is the thing that makes me shake my head:

If the SP drops today I bunker down and wait for fundamentals to set things right
If the SP jumps today the shorts are looking at a squeeze and being wiped out. There will be no tomorrow.

I just don't understand taking on that kind of risk/reward

 

[tschmidty]

“BofA has had a rude awakening,” analysts led by John Murphy said in a note to investors on Wednesday. “While we admit TSLA is a trailblazer in the electric vehicle market. We believe investor optimism about TSLA’s addressable market for electric vehicles, volume growth trajectory, and, most importantly, sustainable profits/cash flow inflection is overblown.”

This right here clarifies how ridiculous these analysts can be. They keep thinking that the "electric vehicle market" is somehow fundamentally different from the "vehicle market." The difference right now is only market segments, but that will change.

Will it be next year? Probably not. Will it be within 10 years? S**t, yeah.

 

[woodisgood]

Just saw a Model Y casually down a main street in Redwood City.

It's happening..

Tesla plate I presume? Or PAPER?

 

[lklundin]

While we are waiting:
The GF4 land purchase contract has been notarized (per the German source),
Giga Berlin / Gigafactory 4 on Twitter

 

[dl003]

T-5 hours

 

[avoigt]

The GF4 land deal got notarized, as confirmed by Brandenburg officials a couple of hours ago:

@GF4Tesla..️️...#GigaBerlin. on Twitter

"The purchase contract between Tesla and the State of Brandenburg has been notarized, the State Chancellery confirmed on Wednesday afternoon in Potsdam after the meeting of a task force.✌"​

Notarizing a contract is required in Germany to make it binding: the GF4 deal has closed!

​

Its official and binding now but the contract includes clauses that the price could change if comparable prices in that region deviate. No big deal though.

Also Tesla need to show how they will solve the water requirements they have for phase 2 and 3 which IMHO should not be a big issue too. If they have to pipeline it from longer distance like e.g. Munich is getting the water from a source 80km from the city so be it but there are other local solution too.

 

[Opus BC fan]

 

[Artful Dodger]

Let's take a moment to focus on TSLA techincals as of 11:30 EST today, highlighting the Bollinger Bands:

• Upper: $609.96
• Middle: $511.05
• Lower: $412.15

Commentary/Analysis:

• Upper-BB is in the perfect position for a +10.8% move to ~$630, will be dragged up slightly and then providing a signal for profit takers once SP peaks
  
• Middle-BB is near the bottom of a -10.8% so ~ $510 would provide a solid support level to consolidate SP
• Lower-BB is already well over $400, and will NOT be breeched in any reasonable circumstance where there is not also blood running in the gutters, a ~ $410 hard floor thus portending utter disaster to any Shortzes so foolish to be place $ Million wagers at, oh say, the $300 Strike price (unmöglich).

Zo, the hall is rented, the orchestra engaged, it's time for the fat Lady to sing.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Todd Burch]

I like to be wrong, so I'm going to go ahead and call a sharp rise in the share price as the trading day closes (as we often see on a Friday at close in anticipation of PapaFox's Monday Morning Exuberance).

Why?

Shorts are bluffing right now. I don't think they really want to exposed for this conference call. The 0.025% of them that are smart enough to realize this will cover their position before the closing bell. 0.025% of a lot of shorted shares should make a noticeable difference

 

[dl003]

There will be SP 500 inclusion and short squeeze of the century. If not now, then in April.
I'm not worried one bit.
Still doing nothing since 5:00 am today.

 

[Alphacrux]

And now, a break from the earnings countdown. WSJ has a video entitled, 'Three Continents and Hours and Hours of Charging. The electric vehicle road test".

Eight reporters try out different brand EVs on different continents. Their experiences: commuting around town mostly fine. Long-distance travel: range anxiety, having to turn off features (heat, A/C) to reach destination, lack of charging stations, broken or in-use public charging stations. *Finally* mention Tesla Superchargers having a better experience, but then they focus on one reporter in a Model 3 encountering a full station and then waiting for an hour to charge fully. This is in the Northeast where Superchargers are abundant. And the reporter obviously did not know how to minimize charging time in a Tesla (stop often, keep battery in the bottom of capacity to maximize charge rate).

Claims video is first of a series. If I have time, maybe it's possible to contact the editorial staff. Maybe others here can do so.

And now back to your regularly scheduled programming...

 

[Derek Vinyard]

a qualitative summary prior to ER and overall expectations - including Brinkman´s (JPM) "extreme caution" on TSLA

Tesla reports its Q4 earnings after the bell
Tesla (TSLA) is scheduled to report results of its fourth fiscal quarter on January 29, with a conference call scheduled for 6:30 pm EDT. What to watch for:

1. OUTLOOK: During the company's last earnings call, Tesla said it sees positive quarterly free cash flow going forward, with possible temporary exceptions, particularly around the launch and ramp of new products. The company also said it continues to believe its business has grown to the point of being self-funding. The electric carmaker sees positive GAAP net income going forward, and added that continuous volume growth, capacity expansion, and cash generation remain the main focus. The company plans to produce limited volumes of Tesla Semi in 2020.

2. DELIVERY UPDATE: Earlier this month, Tesla reported fourth quarter deliveries that beat expectations. With the help of its "record" deliveries of approximately 112,000 vehicles, Tesla delivered approximately 367,500 vehicles for the year, topping the low end of the company's guidance range.

3. CYBERTRUCK: Back in November, Tesla CEO Elon Musk unveiled the Cybertruck electric pickup truck. The company's base Cybertruck model will cost $39,900 and will come in three variants. Customers can order the truck with a deposit of just $100, according to Bloomberg's Dana Hull and Edward Ludlow.

4. CHINA POTENTIAL: In a research note to investors, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said that he does not see any major disruption on the horizon for Tesla post Chinese New Year, other than maybe a timing issue, as the impact around Shanghai still appears to be in flux amid the coronavirus outbreak in the country. Ives ultimately believes Tesla can hit a 150,000 run-rate for units in China over the next year. Ives also noted that Tesla has been saying all its China vehicles will have free supercharging to facilitate travel until the outbreak is resolved, which he views as "a smart strategic move."

Earlier this month, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter raised his price target for Tesla to $553 from $423 after analyzing the company's potential in China. If Tesla's Model 3 market share in the U.S. can be replicated in China, and if this logic extends also to Model Y, then Tesla's annual volume in China alone would eventually exceed 650,000 units, Potter contended. The analyst also said that while he is not sure Tesla can immediately replicate its U.S. success in China due to the strength of German brands in China, he is increasing his estimates nonetheless. Potter now expects China deliveries of 112,000 in 2020, 225,000 in 2021, and 399,000 in 2022. The analyst kept an Overweight rating on Tesla shares.

Back in December, Tesla China announced via Twitter that it was delivering "the first China-made Model 3 at Gigafactory 3 plant in Shanghai." The 15 customers to get their Model 3s first were Tesla employees.

5. 'EXTREME CAUTION' AFTER STOCK RUN: Last week, JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman urged "extreme caution" on shares of Tesla following the stock's recent run. The analyst said he sees 58% downside risk relative to his unchanged price target of $240, and kept an Underweight rating on Tesla. Better deliveries, better earnings, and on-time start of production in China seem the likeliest catalysts for the recent rally, but a closer look suggests "less enthusiasm may be warranted," Brinkman contended, adding that he wonders if the strong close to 2019 could set the company up for a more challenging start to 2020.

Breaking News: TSLA latest news. - The Fly

 

[Mkorpal]

I wonder how many roadsters are going to be reserved tomorrow?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Bankrupt of America admits 'rude awakening' for its bearish Tesla call, but still predicts plunge

FTFY

 

[StealthP3D]

Me for the next six hours...

Me for the next six hours: