Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[PeterJA]

Hmm couple that with a sardine bubble ...that spells....um.....well nonsense.

I predict a chunky sardine switchback rhinoceros horn with a pi-gamma unicorn toothbrush handle forming by Feb 31.

Not advice.

 

[SageBrush]

The retail shorts firmly believe Tesla is all a fraud, a scam and about to be revealed that all those factories are potemkin villages. They really believe their delusions and are gambling their entire assets thinking they are going to make a killing off of our complete humiliation.

Edit: BTW they are NutF@%&ing lunatics! Tesla go Bragh™

Funny, and I'm sure there are retail shorts that fit the bill but large hedge funds cannot be clowns. They can be wrong, they can be ignorant; but they cannot be Trumpers outside of AGW denial. I have already posted above that I think that AGW denial has caused them to miss a TSLA (and EV in general) headwind. That is quite a bit different than putting a bag over one's head and claiming that GF3 is a photoshopped TSLA conspiracy.

I know that garden variety TSLAQ tweets are the stuff of stupidity and FUD but I think it is a mistake to not read the short hypothesis with a fair and critical eye. Do not get complacent. And do not underestimate the enemy. Most important of all, do not underestimate those people who simply short TSLA as a profit venture. Their profits depend on seeing the world for what it is, not whether they love or hate Elon.

--
While I am [sort of] ranting, I'll mention a presumption that the shorting hedge funds that are the most obnoxious are well hedged. We should not take the bait and turn into symmetric obnoxious bulls because they are bluffing. That Spiegal jerk is a good example: 70% of his portfolio is LONG; 5-10% of his remaining SHORT positions are TSLA. He is likely to survive being wrong because his exposure is actually pretty small when it comes to his hedge fund. An awful lot of TMC folk who are LONG TSLA have much, much greater exposure, and it behooves them to take a more moderated approach and not be baited by the blow-hards riling up their base.

Just my opinion,

Cheers !

 

[StealthP3D]

And there is that buying pressure I was talking about yesterday.

 

[neezer]

Reading about Lincoln's and Rivian's agreement for Lincoln to build on top of the skateboard platform that Rivian will supply makes me cringe in a way. I hope that Tesla won't go that route. Imo they are going to face a ton of integration issues and it will probably take a lot of energy from Rivian also to get that sorted. Further, I would think that it will hold Rivian back in innovation pace because it will make them less flexible to implement changes.

In that regard vertical integration also makes much more sense to me.

That definitely sounds like conundrum for what's the best way to go about it. Rivian has no issues raising money...so why are they doing this or even announcing it, so early on?! How about deploy even ONE car to a customer in the field first, you know?? Sheesh. Who knows, maybe Bezos is forcing them lol.

 

[SMAlset]

Didn’t Tesla drop Nvidia because Nvidia wasn’t able/couldn’t do all the customizations that Tesla wanted (developer time involved)? Really have to question if Tesla would want to get themselves in that development issue with others expecting a lot of customization to differentiate their vehicles from others. I just don’t see Tesla looking for revenue from others in this fashion.

 

[mejojo]

Agreed. It would be like Apple providing hardware to Microsoft. Why? The whole point is that it's all engineered together as a complete package...

The case I like to entertain is to provide skateboard to RV manufacturers, where the top hat is highly, highly customized. Electrification would revolutionize the RV experience.

 

[MarcoRP]

Superchargers in Bulgaria!!!

We’ve got Bulgaria too! I wonder how long it will be until we get Turkey. Woohoo!!!

 

[SOULPEDL]

And there is that buying pressure I was talking about yesterday.

Is it possible that shorts put a line in the sand at $580 much like a real battle?
And were they in hiding in recent weeks until this day and price - also seeing it coming as others here have mentioned?

 

[SageBrush]

As is typical, GUIDANCE is what all eyes are upon. Let's suppose TSLA reports lukewarm numbers, barely meeting expectations or barely making a profit, BUT they give strong guidance including the official announcement of the Model Y production and deliveries being WAY ahead of schedule, starting in Feb, and then Musk explains they have more built-in margin than the Model 3....why would the stock not go up?

I think one fair answer would be because today is fact and future guidance is a prediction.

 

[AudubonB]

Is it possible that shorts put a line in the sand at $580 much like a real battle?
And were they in hiding in recent weeks until this day and price - also seeing it coming as others here have mentioned?

I don't think so - as hard as I can try, I cannot seriously imagine a determined battle as such prior to the earnings release.

I can and do expect a very concerted effort at providing all sorts of mischievous statements subsequent to the release, however.

 

[ZeApelido]

You all have totally polluted my mind with the concept that Tesla might realize those deferred tax benefits. I simply can't get it out of my mind. I already expect a very nice looking profit for the last quarter, but the idea it might beat expectations by such a wide margin is just kind of mind boggling. I have no idea what to expect if they suddenly throw out a 5 EPS or something absurd like that.

 

[StealthP3D]

Not sure if I would want them to realize those deferred tax benefits. It opens the door to accusations about ‘accounting tricks’ - even if it is not a trick - and that would cloud any good results from regular operations.

The sooner we can get into the S&P500, the more stability we will have.

There are two kinds of investors, those who can't tie their own shoes and those who are still able to see the underlying good results (if the deferred tax benefits are realized). Those who can't tie their own shoes will be impressed by the big number anyway. The TSLAQ crowd is going to yell "fwaud" and "accounting twicks" no matter what so they are not even relevant.

 

[kengchang]

Didn’t Tesla drop Nvidia because Nvidia wasn’t able/couldn’t do all the customizations that Tesla wanted (developer time involved)? Really have to question if Tesla would want to get themselves in that development issue with others expecting a lot of customization to differentiate their vehicles from others. I just don’t see Tesla looking for revenue from others in this fashion.

You are thinking of Mobileye, nVidia is only a chip supplier.

 

[StealthP3D]

Well, it will cost more money for the Ford, so there would be snob appeal.

On a related note, some people put a premium on having something different from everyone else. And, once "everyone" is driving Tesla's, Ford will be more of a boutique brand that some will pay a premium for.

 

[ggr]

If Boring has an IPO I will be throwing money at it. I grew up in the mid-east and lived through arguably the worst traffic in the nation (NoVA -DC) for about 6 months. 40 mile trip each way took 2 hours on a normal day. There were dedicated places to stop and pick up strangers to ride with you just so you could use the HOV lanes.

If you can get people around cities at 127 miles per hour they will be willing to just throw money at you for that privilege.

Chairmageddon?​

I think Tesla has taught Elon never to go public again.

 

[ammulder]

She's driving a car with multiple gears... how quaint!

 

[Pezpunk]

thinking about maybe hitting a new ATH *before* the earnings report. no big deal.

 

[ggr]

Wow! Real fight to stop this from going though $580. Huge number of sell orders at $580.

Broke through just now.

 

[SOULPEDL]

F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5

 

[neezer]

I think Tesla has taught Elon never to go public again.

lol. Imagine how clueless Joe public or Jim the Analyst would be in trying to evaluate space tech and science ... they can't even do Tesla anywhere near the realm of good accuracy.