Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UnknownSoldier]

Damn, looks like I'm denied the milestone I wanted to reach.

For now.

I rode NVDA up to 293 ATH and then down to 120 and now it's at 250 or so. Having been on a ride like this one before, I know better than to do anything with my shares. Sad that I didn't get my calls out yesterday though.

 

[SageBrush]

To my knowledge, GM's Cruise gives demo rides to journalists and others and has posted some cherry-picked "best of" video clips to give the impression that they have accomplished something other than spending R&D. To my (admittedly inexperienced) eye Cruise looks to me more like a money pit than anything else, and mostly an expense to GM. Because GM spent the money to buy Cruise and the money invested by others in Cruise is not what it appears on its face.[1]

Thanks for the interesting overview.

My take is a bit different. I suspect that the AP market will fragment into 'AP anywhere' and 'AP on highways.'
If LIDAR can reach the latter (much lower) threshold then it has a real chance of beating Tesla to market and being a huge success.
No one but Tesla has any realistic chance of being AP everywhere, but then again they are not even close either.

 

[jbcarioca]

I actually have a good reason to short TSLA (haven't done it myself, mind you): to buy SpaceX

There's several funds that have SpaceX in them, but only as a small fraction. You could effectively buy a pure SpaceX play by buying the funds and shorting all of the non-SpaceX companies in ratios relative to their fraction of the fund you've bought (assuming they're all public). Said funds often have Tesla in them as well. Hence, shorting Tesla to buy SpaceX

I wouldn't recommend this strategy, however! In addition to it being high maintenance, you'd have to maintain total short positions much larger than your SpaceX position, which - even though they're in effect zero leverage - your broker would require you to tie up significant amounts of cash to do so.

If you really want SpaceX, this market sometimes has SpaceX, usually about once a year or so.
Forge
It does take careful consideration to invest through them. I have dealt with them, but always read all the fine print. I do not know whether there are geographical restrictions.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Licensing battery tech to accelerate electrification may not make the best sense (for a few reason) in my option.

Ultimately, one or many of the majors will have to merge with Tesla as maybe the fastest way. In the merger deal, Tesla will get all their useful production facilities and land. Shareholders in the majors will convert their stock to tsla. All "transition" costs of factories and employees will be negotiated and also be a determinate of stock deal.

As far as the unions of the majors, they will renegotiate contracts with Tesla. They either decide to stick with dying majors and their organization structures, or transition to Tesla and negotiate a deal that works for them under the new electric car and solar&storage world. It will be a clean slate that they can start with a better outcome right away and consult with current Tesla employees as to the benefits and non-benefits of their working conditions and compensation. Also, technical and engineering training in EVs, solar, and energy storage will be very enticing as well. Employees of the majors can now have the opinion for long term career path security in the emerging mega industries. It will allow for mass transition without uncertainty of unemployment as ICE manufacturers downsize. Instead of worry, excitement of new long term stability could take hold. They have the option to join solar, energy storage, or vehicle etc., teams.

If it only makes sense to Tesla and shareholders, this will very much accelerate the transition to sustainable production and consumption. I think with an eventual road map for monopoly break up will also be required since at a certain point Tesla will provoke governments to determine it non-innovate and harmful to continued economic/social prosperity as structured. But this is far off, but nessessary to get governments further on board. I also think this could lead to governments focus on investment in road networks to upgrade for better vehicle AI safety as well as accelerate vehicle autonomy across the fleet.

As opposed to licensing, we as shareholders might be closer to getting full electrification through an eventual push for merger/acquisition deal with the majors for assets and employees/talent.

I guess I'm not seeing what the "majors", their employees or their facilities bring to the table.

Tesla needs expertise in AI, software, computers, electrical engineering, robotics and systems integration. The majors have.....none of those. Retraining ICE assemblers for those skills does not sound like Tesla's reputation for hiring the top 1%. I see the talent needs of EV and ICE diverging. EVs are more like spaceships, ICEVs are more like farm machinery.

 

[ProfTournesol]

ok, we're near 700. It's ok now.

 

[SageBrush]

Just a reminder: Correlation is not causation . . . .
Just because two things happen at the same time does not mean that one caused the other.

A big shout-out to xkcd:

 

[Glamisduner]

I just got off the phone with one of my friends. I sold enough shares yesterday at 959, just minutes before the crash, to pay off my house. He called to ask me how I knew when to sell?!? I had to tell him I really had no idea. It just hit a number that I had in my head for a long time as a goal to pay off my house. If I knew it was going to drop, I would have sold all my shares and bought back in after this dip. When we hung up, I still don't think he believed me...

Thats amazing, congratulations!

 

[dw4ngg]

If Tesla's recent price movement is indeed not a bubble move but instead a "revaluation", I think today's price movement is a healthy consolidation. If not, well then, yeah, see V-dubz..

 

[azaz]

still think there's a chance we see 8XX on Monday/Tuesday.

 

[Nocturnal]

Looking back at the charts I totally forgot that the most recent run started on Jan 31st when we were at $649. That seems so low and so long ago now but it's just been a week. lol How soon we forget.

still think there's a chance we see 8XX on Monday/Tuesday.

The pattern of gains Monday/Tuesday and drops mid-late week has been pretty common lately. ​

 

[Cosmacelf]

Yea, I'm not much of a day trader. Guess I screwed up. If it drops more tomorrow I will buy some back, if not I only sold 3 shares for ~160% profit. I'm not a big time investor like some people here, I just took my $5k refund Tesla gave me last year and purchased their stock with it Wish I sold yesterday though, but no big deal I guess.

I have proven to myself through some idiotic trades in hindsight that I'm no day trader either. Timing the market and day trading requires full time focus, a system, gut feel, and being able to process lots of information. I just don't have the time or inclination for that.

So I'm a long term value investor. I look for good buy points, then buy, then leave it at that. Maybe buy more when the growth stock has derisked, like Tesla has done. My goal is to hold onto growth stocks until they are bought out or start generating dividends. Not all my portfolio is growth stocks - they give you an ulcer when a recession hits - and I need some income, so I have a very conservative side of the portfolio as well.

 

[StealthP3D]

So who is selling based on Ralph Nader attacking Tesla and Musk? He is on CNBC calling for an SEC investigation for insider trading. I wonder how much he is short TSLA.

Nader is just blowing hot air.

But if we take what he says seriously, doesn't that imply insiders have very bullish inside knowledge that is not yet public?

 

[SageBrush]

This squeeze (may I call it a squeeze ?) will end up being a wealth transfer of ~ $350k to me from the shorts.

I want to take this moment to thank them, and to invite them to the next party.

Now, back to our regularly scheduled 10 year horizon. Go Tesla !!

 

[lklundin]

Oh, how did you do that? The SP never went over $387.46 on Aug 7, 2018 the day of the tweet:

View attachment 508160

Aug 7 was the high point of the SP for the episode. On the following day, Aug 8, 2018, the highest share price was $382.64 and it slumped to $301.66 by end of the month.

Maybe check your records?

During pre-market hours on Aug. 8 2018 I bought (5) shares at 330.694€/share. That day a US dollar cost 0.86188 Euro, so I got them for 383.69$ / share - which is still less than 400$. For my dollar cost averaging, those are my most expensive shares - and I have thus not bought any lately...

 

[anthonyj]

If Tesla's recent price movement is indeed not a bubble move but instead a "revaluation", I think today's price movement is a healthy consolidation. If not, well then, yeah, see V-dubz..

Tesla is nothing like VW in 2008. VW literally burnt every single short instantly. It went 5x in like 2 days. Tesla had a move on 5/14/2013 that is pretty similar to now.

5/14/2013
Peaked at $98
5/15/2013
Bottomed at $78
5/16/2013
Peaked at $95

 

[dww12]

Is the chart preparing the mother of all bear traps?

 

[wipster]

You know, after the close last Wednesday of 578, if you would have told me a week later the stock would be trading in the 700's, I (along with most everyone on this board) would be screaming with joy! Keep that under consideration when thinking about the current SP, along with bitching at the shorts.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Barring catastrophe, the thing I am most concerned about is political risk. There are few limits on what might trigger angry tweets. Similarly the Commerce, EPA and State Departments are all controlled by zealots who could create havoc. Those make me cautious. Nothing fundamentally does. Were GF-5 to go to Texas we might well see some changes in policy there, the second largest vehicle market in North America and by far the largest pickup/large SUV market. That would be wise, and would enhance the already strong SpaceX presence.

All of those could be major events this year.

I'm more sanguine about US political risk. Elon does hold a (ahem) trump card in that he is a major US manufacturer. And Trump himself seemed to be speaking well of Elon last week. It sounded very Trump like in that it sounded like they came to a transactional agreement. Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised if in exchange for building another giga factory in Texas, Elon got a) Texas sales restrictions lifted and b) modification of the fed tax subsidy to level the playing field now that Tesla doesn't have it anymore.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I just got off the phone with one of my friends. I sold enough shares yesterday at 959, just minutes before the crash, to pay off my house. He called to ask me how I knew when to sell?!? I had to tell him I really had no idea. It just hit a number that I had in my head for a long time as a goal to pay off my house. If I knew it was going to drop, I would have sold all my shares and bought back in after this dip. When we hung up, I still don't think he believed me...

Yeah, no one can time the market. All you hope for is to be lucky.

 

[dw4ngg]

Tesla is nothing like VW in 2008. VW literally burnt every single short instantly. It went 5x in like 2 days. Tesla had a move on 5/14/2013 that is pretty similar to now.

5/14/2013
Peaked at $98
5/15/2013
Bottomed at $78
5/16/2013
Peaked at $95

Then I guess we’re expecting 939 tmrw.