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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
JusRelax
Active Member
Sudre
Active Member
How are people assuming the shorts squeeze has ended when shorts did not get out? They rolled their shorts out. One short even publicly announced he’s back in.
It’s pretty obvious Market Watch had inside short information about today and they accidentally sent the article out yesterday 3 minutes before close instead of today. Oops. Isn’t this almost exactly what happened last time one of these types of articles were “accidentally” published too soon.
With the SEC we have I expect them to now start an investigation........ into Tesla/Elon manipulating the SP up with insider information.
It’s pretty obvious Market Watch had inside short information about today and they accidentally sent the article out yesterday 3 minutes before close instead of today. Oops. Isn’t this almost exactly what happened last time one of these types of articles were “accidentally” published too soon.
With the SEC we have I expect them to now start an investigation........ into Tesla/Elon manipulating the SP up with insider information.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Same page. Buying at $700 to get to $1000 in about 12 months is a really terrific rate of return. I'm recommending to friends accumulation below $750.
Had a sell order for half my shares at 990$ yesterday, so close! Well well, got a few extra today at 730$
jhm
Well-Known Member
They are doing their best to give us discounted buying opportunities.
Just a reminder: Correlation is not causation . . . .
Just because two things happen at the same time does not mean that one caused the other.
Licensing battery tech to accelerate electrification may not make the best sense (for a few reason) in my option.
Ultimately, one or many of the majors will have to merge with Tesla as maybe the fastest way. In the merger deal, Tesla will get all their useful production facilities and land. Shareholders in the majors will convert their stock to tsla. All "transition" costs of factories and employees will be negotiated and also be a determinate of stock deal.
As far as the unions of the majors, they will renegotiate contracts with Tesla. They either decide to stick with dying majors and their organization structures, or transition to Tesla and negotiate a deal that works for them under the new electric car and solar&storage world. It will be a clean slate that they can start with a better outcome right away and consult with current Tesla employees as to the benefits and non-benefits of their working conditions and compensation. Also, technical and engineering training in EVs, solar, and energy storage will be very enticing as well. Employees of the majors can now have the opinion for long term career path security in the emerging mega industries. It will allow for mass transition without uncertainty of unemployment as ICE manufacturers downsize. Instead of worry, excitement of new long term stability could take hold. They have the option to join solar, energy storage, or vehicle etc., teams.
If it only makes sense to Tesla and shareholders, this will very much accelerate the transition to sustainable production and consumption. I think with an eventual road map for monopoly break up will also be required since at a certain point Tesla will provoke governments to determine it non-innovate and harmful to continued economic/social prosperity as structured. But this is far off, but nessessary to get governments further on board. I also think this could lead to governments focus on investment in road networks to upgrade for better vehicle AI safety as well as accelerate vehicle autonomy across the fleet.
As opposed to licensing, we as shareholders might be closer to getting full electrification through an eventual push for merger/acquisition deal with the majors for assets and employees/talent.
Ultimately, one or many of the majors will have to merge with Tesla as maybe the fastest way. In the merger deal, Tesla will get all their useful production facilities and land. Shareholders in the majors will convert their stock to tsla. All "transition" costs of factories and employees will be negotiated and also be a determinate of stock deal.
As far as the unions of the majors, they will renegotiate contracts with Tesla. They either decide to stick with dying majors and their organization structures, or transition to Tesla and negotiate a deal that works for them under the new electric car and solar&storage world. It will be a clean slate that they can start with a better outcome right away and consult with current Tesla employees as to the benefits and non-benefits of their working conditions and compensation. Also, technical and engineering training in EVs, solar, and energy storage will be very enticing as well. Employees of the majors can now have the opinion for long term career path security in the emerging mega industries. It will allow for mass transition without uncertainty of unemployment as ICE manufacturers downsize. Instead of worry, excitement of new long term stability could take hold. They have the option to join solar, energy storage, or vehicle etc., teams.
If it only makes sense to Tesla and shareholders, this will very much accelerate the transition to sustainable production and consumption. I think with an eventual road map for monopoly break up will also be required since at a certain point Tesla will provoke governments to determine it non-innovate and harmful to continued economic/social prosperity as structured. But this is far off, but nessessary to get governments further on board. I also think this could lead to governments focus on investment in road networks to upgrade for better vehicle AI safety as well as accelerate vehicle autonomy across the fleet.
As opposed to licensing, we as shareholders might be closer to getting full electrification through an eventual push for merger/acquisition deal with the majors for assets and employees/talent.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
At 3:34 he also says factory will be back online Feb 10 after holidays extended by not quite one week. So we got that from three independent sources now.
The Accountant
Active Member
Excellent List!
Perhaps by year-end we will hear more about the China Design Studio and more details on the potential China designed car for Worldwide consumption.
Elon Musk Announces Tesla Will Set Up Design Center in China
https://electrek.co/2020/01/16/tesla-new-design-drawing-announces-design-center-chinese-style-car/
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Do you really believe shorts weren't piling on during yesterday's flash crash and this morning in the 800's? I would guess that short interest is building.
On the other hand, they have shown a love of selling low and buying high.
I almost sold a few shares at $960 yesterday, but I was 5 seconds too late... Now it's at 710 and dropping, maybe I should still sell but I feel like an idiot.
edit: ok sold a few shares at $710 and now it's headed back up, you can all thank me for the increase in price since stocks always go up right after I sell them
Why is everyone disagreeing?
Because now is the time to buy, not sell. Or rather it will be the time time to buy after it starts bouncing up for real. It isn't even a bad time to buy now and dollar cost average down from here. That's a value investor perspective.
I realize that Tesla seems like a great stock to day trade in, but if you weren't able to pull the trigger and sell during the last two days of apparent short squeezing, and weren't able to pull the trigger first trade this morning when it was obvious that the stock was going to continue falling today, then maybe day trading isn't for you. Just some friendly advice.
Today's price moves increase my confidence in this interpretation.
Effective free float of investors willing to trade their shares has got far too small (both due to old investors holding very high price targets and with new long term investors jumping on board the clean energy transition), while the net delta exposure of the options market has got far too big. So prices moves in either direction rapidly spiral, amplified by the delta hedging change (both from higher/lower delta of each option as price rises/falls and with leveraged investors increasing exposure or taking profits in the options market and market maker's dumping their corresponding delta hedge shares).
This is again all amplified by a trend of buying options on Monday and taking profits through the week (particularly on Thursday and Friday ahead of weekly maturities). More investors have caught on to this trend so it becomes equivalent to a self reinforcing investor buy/sell technical signal.
If this is all the case, very high volatility is likely to continue.
And if investors took enough profit on Monday and Tuesday, they can boost the stock again significantly on Monday by buying options en masse again.
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I'm predicting we end the week around 650. I might have to buy LEAPS with a small amount of money on Friday.
Glamisduner
Active Member
Yea, I'm not much of a day trader. Guess I screwed up. If it drops more tomorrow I will buy some back, if not I only sold 3 shares for ~160% profit. I'm not a big time investor like some people here, I just took my $5k refund Tesla gave me last year and purchased their stock with it
Wish I sold yesterday though, but no big deal I guess.
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Barring catastrophe, the thing I am most concerned about is political risk. There are few limits on what might trigger angry tweets. Similarly the Commerce, EPA and State Departments are all controlled by zealots who could create havoc. Those make me cautious. Nothing fundamentally does. Were GF-5 to go to Texas we might well see some changes in policy there, the second largest vehicle market in North America and by far the largest pickup/large SUV market. That would be wise, and would enhance the already strong SpaceX presence.
All of those could be major events this year.
I just got off the phone with one of my friends. I sold enough shares yesterday at 959, just minutes before the crash, to pay off my house. He called to ask me how I knew when to sell?!? I had to tell him I really had no idea. It just hit a number that I had in my head for a long time as a goal to pay off my house. If I knew it was going to drop, I would have sold all my shares and bought back in after this dip. When we hung up, I still don't think he believed me...
Continued rising of sea levels and hot summer temperatures making more people concerned about climate change.
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