Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M3Rider]

Reloaded my calls basket. That's what sales are for. Holding shares. Hoping these extra calls will help me exercise one of them soon.

@anthonyj - is this -->960-->700 what you meant by -->1100-->650 or it's a warm up round?
Curious on your take.

 

[woodisgood]

I have to say kudos to those that were able to capitalize on the "bubble" if that's what it ends up being. I thought about selling a 2022 LEAP that had appreciated 1,300% but got greedy in a way - didn't like the idea of paying short-term taxes on something I had planned to hold at least a year-ish.

It may end up being a while before we retest the 900s. Battery day could possibly propel us back into that range but not if it's balanced by a tepid 1Q ER. With Corona impacting Shanghai, 1Q isn't likely to be as much of a slam dunk as it could have been. Will be an interesting Spring for sure...

 

[azaz]

still gonna hold these 3/20s for a while. am not convinced the run up is over, although that is more likely than not the case

 

[anthonyj]

Reloaded my calls basket. That's what sales are for. Holding shares. Hoping these extra calls will help me exercise one of them soon.

@anthonyj - is this -->960-->700 what you meant by -->1100-->650 or it's a warm up round?
Curious on your take.

When I was modeling that, I was trying to mirror the 2013 move and Bitcoin's parabolic move. If it rebounds and breaks $1,000 this week, then yes, replace those numbers and expect some serious carnage

 

[wipster]

I just got off the phone with one of my friends. I sold enough shares yesterday at 959, just minutes before the crash, to pay off my house. He called to ask me how I knew when to sell?!? I had to tell him I really had no idea. It just hit a number that I had in my head for a long time as a goal to pay off my house. If I knew it was going to drop, I would have sold all my shares and bought back in after this dip. When we hung up, I still don't think he believed me...

Good on ya mate! Glad you were able to catch the wave! Might do the same, but probably after Battery Day... I have a feeling that may be a wonderful day!

 

[EinSV]

No matter how good your case for $1000/share is right now, it'll be a stronger case in 12 months.

In 12 months...
+ 500k+ deliveries
+ Full year FCF positive
+ Full year profitable
+ Substantial market share gain in China and world
+ Full ramp up of Model Y in Giga California
+ Full ramp up of Model 3 in Giga Shanghai
+ Build out of Model Y line at Giga Shanghai
+ Build out of Giga Berlin
+ Production start of Semi, maybe Cybertruck too
+ Battery tech advances
+ FSD tech advances
+ Initial development of GF5, Giga Texas perhaps
+ Scale up of Energy products
+++ MORE SURPRISES

+ What did I miss?


In 12 months we'll be able to look back and say, this is what Tesla in 2020, and $1000/share is well earned.

Now what's the justification for $1000/share today? That Tesla will accomplish these things this year.

$1000 in 2020, based on expectations
$1000 in 2021, based on results

Nobody expects .... Because it has taken so long ... Has started now and eventually will be here in volume ....

Solarglass roof
Elon says 1000/wk. Then 10000/wk. Then 20000/wk.

 

[Nocturnal]

Tesla is nothing like VW in 2008. VW literally burnt every single short instantly. It went 5x in like 2 days. Tesla had a move on 5/14/2013 that is pretty similar to now.

5/14/2013
Peaked at $98
5/15/2013
Bottomed at $78
5/16/2013
Peaked at $95

I hope you are correct and will gladly buy you a beer if so (well, I'll buy one if you are wrong too) but isn't there something psychologically different about the same percent swings, at higher relative numbers? People are more prone to panic if 20% means losing 200 bucks a share than if 20% means losing 20 bucks a share.

 

[eloder]

I need to buy another Model 3. It has given me the luckiest string of sale timing ever.

Sold ~20k above 350 in late 2018 for down payment (bought it all back after Q1 with tax credit and savings), sold a $1.3k option for $29k yesterday minutes before the flash crash simply because I had a limit sale matching the remainder of my Model 3 loan.

All my shares are intact and still have a couple longer options that I'm holding on to. No regrets on touching anything else as I expect we'll be above 1k before July. Keep strong, longs--we're still in an amazing spot even after today!

 

[tslagreen]

LOL. I get Yahoo finance alerts on my phone. Just got one (which I deleted), something to the effect of Tesla
on track for worst one-day loss ever. Funny, I actually expected similar alerts when the TSLA was flying recently, but I
don't remember seeing it.

Never like to see red, but honestly, I cannot complain. This has been a good run and I expect it to run a lot further with
continued exponential future growth.

 

[azaz]

On track for a casual 20 Mio volume openings hour.

If everyone could stop selling, that would be great.

Tesla is nothing like VW in 2008. VW literally burnt every single short instantly. It went 5x in like 2 days. Tesla had a move on 5/14/2013 that is pretty similar to now.

5/14/2013
Peaked at $98
5/15/2013
Bottomed at $78
5/16/2013
Peaked at $95

I hope you are correct and will gladly buy you a beer if so (well, I'll buy one if you are wrong too) but isn't there something psychologically different about the same percent swings, at higher relative numbers? People are more prone to panic if 20% means losing 200 bucks a share than if 20% means losing 20 bucks a share.

there's also just an extreme level of casuals in the stock rn as evidenced by google's "should I" autocomplete

 

[Foghat]

I guess I'm not seeing what the "majors", their employees or their facilities bring to the table.

Tesla needs expertise in AI, software, computers, electrical engineering, robotics and systems integration. The majors have.....none of those. Retraining ICE assemblers for those skills does not sound like Tesla's reputation for hiring the top 1%. I see the talent needs of EV and ICE diverging. EVs are more like spaceships, ICEVs are more like farm machinery.

I heard an analyst say yesterday that governments will step in to limit Tesla because big industry jobs are at stake. In stead of artificial limitations on Tesla's growth (aka threats of war on Tesla) from governments/politicians that hold certain companies "too big to fail," it might be fruitful to explore ways to mitigate that outcome as well as potentially accelerate growth.

Training employees in actually extremely useful to "finding" exceptional talent. If Tesla can generate exceptional talent, even if they don't have degrees from prestigious universities, or have direct experience in solar or evs, they will accelerate the growth. Tesla university may be more prestigious anyway if someone put that on their resume.

It would have to work out to be advantageous to Tesla and shareholders, but going through broader strategic concerns such as the political, social, economic implications of such a massive industrial change, we might find ourselves with increasing road blocks to growth outside the immediate market forces around a superior product. Absorbing assets and talent of other vehicle companies might be a consideration on onboarding through Tesla training. Elon says finding talent is a big limiting factor, so onboarding and training might be a strategic boon to accelerate talent expertise procurement as well as deal with political level headwinds due to dying ICE&fossil fuel industries.

 

[Buckminster]

 

[farzyness]

Nice pullback here for folks to enter - this thing will march back to $1k in the coming weeks and months.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I'm more sanguine about US political risk. Elon does hold a (ahem) trump card in that he is a major US manufacturer. And Trump himself seemed to be speaking well of Elon last week. It sounded very Trump like in that it sounded like they came to a transactional agreement. Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised if in exchange for building another giga factory in Texas, Elon got a) Texas sales restrictions lifted and b) modification of the fed tax subsidy to level the playing field now that Tesla doesn't have it anymore.

It's possible. Trump and Greg Abbott apparently were pretty friendly in Davos.
WATCH: Trump hugs Greg Abbott during 'candid moment' in Davos

 

[anthonyj]

I hope you are correct and will gladly buy you a beer if so (well, I'll buy one if you are wrong too) but isn't there something psychologically different about the same percent swings, at higher relative numbers? People are more prone to panic if 20% means losing 200 bucks a share than if 20% means losing 20 bucks a share.

And shorts are more prone to panic if it pumps to $1,000+, it goes both ways. Anyway I'm happy that I unloaded most of my calls yesterday, still have some $1,000 calls for March that I bought for a pack of turkey jerky and a few ITM calls for 2021 that I bought for about 30 8-foot 2x4s from Home Depot. Still long tons of shares, might sell 50 of them at $900 so we can blow past $1,000

 

[Compton]

Jeez, I don't know what people are complaining for. Apparently most are speculating instead of investing.

 

[mekberg]

In Palo Alto on business this week. Have an unexpected opening in my schedule and my long shot email to factory tours netted me a seat. Will see if anyone is doubting their vibe re: stock price.

 

[Mkorpal]

Before the Cybertruck reveal, I decided to go very aggressive with a $6000 call bet. Yesterday, for a brief moment, that bet hit 1 million.

I'm oddly calm today despite that dropping more than half. The calls still have plenty of time and I think I'll still have an opportunity to win that lotto. Even if it doesn't, I still took out a decent win a few weeks ago, so I can sleep well at night.

 

[S3XY]

Oh god. SpaceX is in Texas. My crazy theory might be correct

I really don’t like tattoos

Edit: He changed his location on Twitter to Austin Texas
View attachment 508077

This makes perfect sense if they will be making the Cybertruck there. Since it will use the same stainless steel as the Starship it should be built somewhere close to where the Starship is built.

 

[Silentk]

Money bit starts around 19 minutes in. Got very lucky!