Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Silentk]

I just took a cruise through the sounds of New Zealand and the one thing that annoyed me was the exhaust from the ship obscured part of the view.

https://www.stand.earth/sites/defau...r-pollution-on-the-decks-of-4-cruise-ship.pdf

"Concentrations of PM (particulate matter) on the decks of these ships are comparable to concentrations measured in polluted cities, including Beijing and Santiago. Despite being on the open water and in open air, vacationers and cruise ship staff may be exposed to elevated concentrations of PM"

 

[StealthP3D]

I gave it more thought, meaning at some point when my mind had nothing else to do like sitting on the throne, and I realized it is as I originally stated. The company is worth some market cap with X amount of cash. If the cash is spent to buy back stock the total value of the company is reduced by the amount of cash spent. The share price should not change as the remaining shares now equal the new value of the stock at the same price per share.

I'm not a big fan of share buy-backs but they do increase the value of the remaining shares in a growing company. And the faster a company is growing, the more this is true. Because each share represents a larger portion of the revenue stream. This is basic stock valuation stuff and the reason why companies buy back shares.

 

[lklundin]

That would be a way to create a frenzied run on the stock - 'TSLA shareholders as of X/Y/Z will be entitled to participate in the Starlink IPO and purchase X shares...'

Seriously, if the shares can subsequently be traded publicly could anything legally prevent this?

 

[LST]

By definition luck is always luck and has nothing to do with investing for profit. I have complete confidence that I can buy TSLA at $300 or less and make a profit in a year or two. At $500 I am less confident. At $900 I'm ready to short. It will be around a decade for TSLA to make the sort of money that will justify a $900 price tag. That's a bit too long to justify spending the money now. I think Kramer is saying $900 is a good price to buy, but then he has already invested, no?

yep, sure, after the split

 

[FrankSG]

Hard to predict with accuracy, but I think there's some chance we'll see $1,200, or even $1,500 this week.

@ReflexFunds posted some numbers. They had some caveats, but they showed that MMs might be holding less shares for delta hedging after Wednesday's close compared to Friday the 31st's close, yet SP appreciated ~15%, so it seems like the float has contracted even further (net increase in # of shares held by longs).

It's also pretty clear to me that @Artful Dodger is correct about heavy manipulations having occurred last week. He theorized MMs may have sold short as much as 2M+ shares, which they will have to buy back at some point.

It also seems very possible that some shorts jumped back on around Tuesday following Andrew Left's announcement that he went short TSLA once again.

All in all, it could shape up to be an even more explosive week than the last. The slight positive news about Giga Shanghai reopening should help, but we'll see what happens.

So far so good!! First 4 minutes of pre-market and we're up almost $30

EDIT: 1 minute later and we at $788!!!

$900 before market open?

 

[RobStark]

He’ll keep them happy by building state of the art gigafactories in their countries while innovating new technologies and taking over German firms like Grohmann and rewarding the workforce with stock options.

France and Germany are known for being happy being America's bitch.

Third world countries where US outsources.

So too China,Japan,South Korea and the rest of the world.

 

[Tslynk67]

So far so good!! First 4 minutes of pre-market and we're up almost $30

View attachment 509809

EDIT: 1 minute later and we at $788!!!

$900 before market open?

I expected green, but not that much, so quickly, very nice!

Wait until retail comes onboard at 13:00CET / 07:00ET...

 

[lklundin]

She’s been getting trashed on for her poor Tesla take last week. She’s trying to calm her DM’s and emails down. Her husband has owned that Tesla for a while though

Dan Telvock on Twitter

she’s still retweeting this idiot’s attempt to storm the beaches of GigaBuffalo.

Can anyone enlighten me, what motivates this sense of entitlement from him: "we own the damn building" ?
- So far I got no direct answer:
Lars Kr. Lundin on Twitter

PS. Oh wait, this is the investor's thread. OK. The SP is up 30+ points in pre-market trading...

 

[RobStark]

What are they going to do about it? They're already too late. They cannot stop the inevitable. Tesla will be the biggest car manufacturer in the EV future, the only question is by how large a margin.

Car companies that fully embrace the inevitable EV future today (Volkswagen) have a chance to play a role in the car industry of the future, but the vast majority is still of the opinion that EVs are some kind of joke, and they will not survive the next decade (BMW, most Japanese manufacturers).

You can only do so much to protect your national industries. If German/French/Japanese EVs are only going to be a couple of thousand $s more expensive than a Tesla, you can slap on some tariffs and suddenly your national prides stand a chance. But what about software/info-tainment? What about safety? What about the dealer networks? What about the dying ICE businesses? What about battery supply chain? Governments can't magically make a TWh of EV batteries appear to save their car industries.

Looking at Toyota's trajectory, Japan's car industry is already pretty much screwed in my opinion. Combine that with Japan's population implosion, and I'm indeed very worried for their economy going forward.

Also don't forget about the autonomy part. If Tesla solves autonomy in the next couple of years, that's another major existential threat to the French, German, Japanese, and Chinese car industries.

Governments can do all sorts of things.

Punitive taxes.

Punitive regulations. Outright bans.

Massive subsidies.

It is laughable to suggest one company will rule the entire globe in such a strategic industry.

Elon himself said vehicle autonomy will be a commodity ten years or so after Tesla achieves it.

I can very much see governments banning robotaxis until their local automotive companies have robotaxis.

I see max tesla market share as being 50% US, 20% countries/tariff unions with their own automotive industries, and 40% market share in countries with no automotive industry. The rest of BEVs will have to come from other companies.

It is the nature of governments that the only monopoly they will tolerate is their own.

 

[lklundin]

I thought the point of Tesla is push other auto OEMs to switch to BEVs. Because Tesla alone can not switch the entire globe to the sustainable production and consumption of energy.

The only firms using cylindrical cells are the startups. Legacy OEMs don't cylindrical cells.

If the same battery (ingredient) goes in a Tesla or in a BEV-competitor, then the push towards sustainable transportation is the same. So in that case, there is no reason why Tesla should allow the battery (ingredient) to go to the competitor. In fact as a publicly traded company, Tesla management would have a fiduciary duty to give preference to Tesla as opposed to the competitor.

 

[FrankSG]

Governments can do all sorts of things.

Punitive taxes.

How would this work?

Punitive regulations. Outright bans.

You think Tesla might be banned from selling cars in countries like Germany/Japan in the future?

Massive subsidies.

Yeah, but like I said... there's only so much you can subsidize. You can't subsidize away all of Tesla's advantages. If it was just a few thousand dollar price difference, I would agree with you.

It is laughable to suggest one company will rule the entire globe in such a strategic industry.

Elon himself said vehicle autonomy will be a commodity ten years or so after Tesla achieves it.

I can very much see governments banning robotaxis until their local automotive companies have robotaxis.

I see max tesla market share as being 50% US, 20% countries/tariff unions with their own automotive industries, and 40% market share in countries with no automotive industry. The rest of BEVs will have to come from other companies.

It is the nature of governments that the only monopoly they will tolerate is their own.

I think it could go much higher than 20% if more car manufacturers don't start being more serious very soon. I believe Apple also has a 50%+ market share in a number of markets with their iPhone. Not to say that Tesla is guaranteed to end up with 50%+ EV market share, but I wouldn't say it's impossible either. Others definitely need to wake up soon, because if they sleep for a few more years, I am doubtful that governments will be able to change what's coming.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Any news from Wedbush?

 

[Pezpunk]

mmmmm smells like some freshly roasted shorts this morning again. god i hope they never learn.

 

[lklundin]

Unconfirmed reports of resumed production at Giga Shanghai.

View attachment 509770 View attachment 509772 View attachment 509773

Not every auto maker in China is restarting today:
The Business Source on Twitter

 

[avoigt]

Frankfurt at 721,90 EUR +6,47 % +43,90 EUR

 

[KarenRei]

Cancelled all of my call sellback orders (pure calls -> spreads), as they all became way too low overnight God, this dip was so predictable....

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Jim Cramer mentioned SP might exceed $1000 in a big way during the next leg up.

 

[Green46]

Also don't forget about the autonomy part. If Tesla solves autonomy in the next couple of years, that's another major existential threat to the French, German, Japanese, and Chinese car industries.

Don't worry too much about it. The italians will come around to save the day with the Fiat 500e...after they finish down-selling it of course.

 

[Mich]

This is a very uncommon gap up today. I'm playing the Monday gap up, but this time it was not up in Frankfurt the hour before premarket opens and it was up from the very beginning.


I typical Monday gap up starts in Frankfurt. Not sure what this means.

 

[KarenRei]

This is a very uncommon gap up today. I'm playing the Monday gap up, but this time it was not up in Frankfurt the hour before premarket opens and it was up from the very beginning.


I typical Monday gap up starts in Frankfurt. Not sure what this means.

Who didn't see this coming when the factory reopened today?