Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

Solar and wind curtailment reached record levels in 2019, says AEMO | RenewEconomy

This solar farm has to switch off every second day due to negative prices | RenewEconomy

This provides some indication of the market for energy storage batteries.... not just time shifting electricity into the evening peak, but charging the battery when prices are negative and discharging when prices are higher...

So often when prices are negative during the day, there may still be high prices during the evening peak.....

And if batteries can contribute to "system strength" they can keep RE running as a higher percentage of the grid...... this last part is a bit like FSD ... it needs to be proven to work, then the regulators need to be happy...

It's not that batteries need to be proven to the regulators, that's already been shown in Australia, it's the vested interests that own the politicians that have to be defeated. Here in Texas, batteries are considered energy generation rather than energy storage so they can't be used to store electricity by the energy distribution companies. Those companies must purchase from energy generating companies which don't want batteries because they love the $9999 / kWh cap on instantaneous pricing. They know that batteries will lower the cost of electricity and are doing everything in their power to stop them, which they have.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Seems like a no-brainer but could SpaceX vastly increase launch pricing to pull the profits and FCF to their side?

I guess we'll know the answer if Tesla changes Model 3 / Robotaxi purchase to 1 or 2 hundred K, which is closer to their actual value based on cash flows...

Meanwhile, back here on Earth:

TSLA > Real Time Quotes
$815.00 +66.93 +8.94%
Real-Time data 2/10/2020 06:45 EST​

Cheers!

 

[KarenRei]

Did you talk to him (her) since early last year, which time frame was probably less glorious to TSLA options strategies?

Never felt the need to talk to one before

Seriously, though, I view taxes as a form of charity - a quite suboptimally managed one, sure, but paying them as contributing to my country being the sort of place that treats people well, gives everyone opportunity, and runs smoothly. What's kept me from using a tax advisor before is, I'd much rather pay $1k to the government than to an advisor. Indeed, I'd much rather pay $2k, or $3k to the government than $1k to an advisor.

But 10x? 20x? 50x? Hmm.... yeah, it's time to meet with a tax advisor I have no interest in "hiding money from the government in tax shelters in Panama" or anything like that, but I nonetheless want to make sure I handle my taxes this year in as intelligently of a manner as possible.

 

[anthonyj]

I always mark your posts funny, but today I don't dare to. Informative it is.

Care to share when you think they'll go ITM?

Soon

 

[KarenRei]

An 'older' video about energy storage and how a small increase in energy density of Lithium ion cells can disrupt the trillion-dollar energy market.
Don't forget: it's not just cars and FSD. Tesla Energy will be a huuuuuge revenue boost the coming years.

Tesla will be a trillion dollars worth of a monster company coming years!

Yeah, people keep missing out on how staggering its potential is.

Every reduction in prices leads to an order of magnitude more growth potential. Current prices are about $350/kWh - way over current cell costs, let alone future cell costs. Yes, you need power electronics and physical housings as well, but still, there's many orders of magnitude of market growth potential ahead.

 

[UncaNed]

Can somebody give me a list of the top 10 contributors of this forum (People who are very knowledgeable about Tesla/TSLA) The rest of the people on this forum I'm going to ignore. I don't want to waste my time going through pages with no helpful/useful information. Thanks

Scroll down, click SUPPORT TMC and buy yourself a black and red S shield maybe we'll feel like giving you some hints.

 

[AlexS]

13F final reporting date is this Friday, so we will see some interesting data

 

[jbcarioca]

This is a must watch.

"must watch" may be the most classically British understatement of recent times.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Soon

 

[Fact Checking]

Last week wasn't either of these either though. Do we know what open interest was at the start of last week? Is it possible that a bunch of people buying options on Monday will make it another massive expiry week? Would this be nullified by MMs having learned from their mistake and pricing options higher this time?

That's true, but it appears February 21 is the "big one":

date          open interest # of contracts, each contract is 100 shares

2020/Feb/07:  PUTs:   237,522 ; CALLs:   182,918  <-- these expired last Friday
2020/Feb/14:  PUTs:    96,471 ; CALLs:   115,780  <-- this week's expiry
2020/Feb/21:  PUTs:   309,790 ; CALLs:   136,461  <-- next week's expiry
2020/Feb/28:  PUTs:    23,228 ; CALLs:    29,118
2020/Mar/06:  PUTs:    11,245 ; CALLs:    13,336
2020/Mar/13:  PUTs:     4,468 ; CALLs:     6,318
2020/Mar/20:  PUTs:   214,018 ; CALLs:   126,519
2020/Mar/27:  PUTs:       350 ; CALLs:       585

In comparison February 14, this Friday, is a minor expiry. This options series was only created on January 2, when we were well on the way to $450, and most of the open interest was created in the past 2 weeks I believe.

February 21 on the other hand was created in early December, with the stock price in the $330s, when many call writers probably assumed that $400-$800 strikes are lottery tickets bought by fools.

My hypothesis (without firm proof) is that written calls in the $700-$900 range were rolled over to last week's expiry, where the (short) hedge funds who wrote them pulled the Xetra-Nasdaq-Marketwatch stunt to get rid of their weakly hedged liability. A lot of calls (over 100,000 contracts) expired worthless last week - and this week's open interest looks more naturally grown and not nearly as many calls are in the relevant price range, with sufficiently juicy elevated-IV premiums paid to genuine market makers to assume the risk and to finance the delta hedging.

Again, I could be wrong.

 

[Vad42]

$1,880 calls are gonna go ITM and y’all gonna mark this as “funny” just like you did when I said buy $600 calls a few months ago

I did mark it as Funny but I’m not laughing too hard. I was actually thinking of selling some covered calls for income this week but I’m not sure what strikes are “safe” at this point for 3-4 weeks out.

 

[Cobbler]

That's true, but it appears February 21 is the "big one":
...
Again, I could be wrong.

/eli5: last week turned out to be another bear-trap. ATH will be broken this week

 

[saniflash]

I did mark it as Funny but I’m not laughing too hard. I was actually thinking of selling some covered calls for income this week but I’m not sure what strikes are “safe” at this point for 3-4 weeks out.

burned myself 3 out of the last 4 weeks by selling covered calls. pausing this for now. this baby is currently too volatile to the upside imho so that the chance of missed out profits by having shares called away is too high for my taste

 

[Romand]

Should I buy shares rn? and sell in couple hours

 

[FrankSG]

Pre-market volume is getting wild.

With the influx of new market participants at 7:00AM, nearly 100k shares traded between 7:00AM and 7:05AM. These are mid-day market hours levels of volume, not usual pre-market volume (although last week also saw some absurd pre-market volume).

Pre-market volumes in $ as of 7:09AM:

1. TSLA - $240M
2. APPL - $34.7M
3. BABA - $19.1M
4. AMZN - $14.0M
5. MSFT - $5.3M

 

[Tslynk67]

$1,880 calls are gonna go ITM and y’all gonna mark this as “funny” just like you did when I said buy $600 calls a few months ago

Thanks to you, @TrendTrader007's recent post seemed relatively not-so-hyper-bullish

 

[SO16]

Never felt the need to talk to one before

Seriously, though, I view taxes as a form of charity - a quite suboptimally managed one, sure, but paying them as contributing to my country being the sort of place that treats people well, gives everyone opportunity, and runs smoothly. What's kept me from using a tax advisor before is, I'd much rather pay $1k to the government than to an advisor. Indeed, I'd much rather pay $2k, or $3k to the government than $1k to an advisor.

But 10x? 20x? 50x? Hmm.... yeah, it's time to meet with a tax advisor I have no interest in "hiding money from the government in tax shelters in Panama" or anything like that, but I nonetheless want to make sure I handle my taxes this year in as intelligently of a manner as possible.

I wish more people in America had your mindset.

 

[Tslynk67]

Google Could Acquire Tesla For $1,500 Per Share On Its Way To $2 Trillion Stock

Article in Forbes from “contributor” Trefis Team.

I'm not giving my shares away for $1500, but I like that they get these decent valuations out there into people's heads - that does not harm at all.

 

[Tslynk67]

Thanks. I think I had missed your other post.

Despite the number of options being significantly smaller than last week, there is still a lot of money at play. I think the thesis may still hold, although perhaps not as dramatically as last week.

I think you might be confusing the puts and calls?

 

[juanmedina]

Soon

Feb 28th, right?