Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

The fact that sales in the US - Tesla's largest market - are literally "imploding", starting Jan 1, 2019...
That is happening as we speak...
Cars are stacked up in lots all across the US, and selling 1-2-3 cars a day, per delivery center, just isn't gonna cut it...

And Euro/China sales somewhat "less" than as strong as expected (the next 4 weeks notwithstanding)...

I'm sure this post will get tons of "Disagree" ratings, but, lets see how it pans out when we actually see Q1 sales in April....

It was anticipated by all that a demand rush in the fourth quarter would be due to a reduction in the tax credit. Tesla wisely focused on US deliveries in the fourth quarter and then overseas for the first quarter.

Particularly with the much higher volume Model 3, inventory cars are produced in the most popular configurations. Many prospects want a new car when problems develop with their current one, and they cannot wait for something made-to-order in the manner of Tesla's earlier policy. So Tesla is understandably transitioning to a more conventional inventory system.

Meanwhile North Americans will continue to need a new car due to problems and excess mileage. Some of those will be earlier Tesla customers. Others will develop interest from friends as the number of Tesla owners rapidly grows. They'll soon be rolling in to fill the temporary void due to the tax credit reduction. Meanwhile, look for Tesla to push US sales again ahead of the next reduction in the tax credit.

The trick is to keep production and demand in equilibrium. If production ever starts outpacing demand, expect the advertising lever to be pulled. Let's look ahead for opportunity far beyond that of the first quarter.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

In other words - Tesla doesn't do stand alone FSD tests. They just run their FSD software in background and compare the output with what the driver actually does. This gives them error rates etc.

Well, not on public roads in CA, at least.

Also, while I'm on the topic, I noted this in the electrek article, but it's interesting to me that they seem to say they're actually running "shadow mode" directly on the car. I had assumed they just gathered data using the car and let their servers run simulations against it.

@verygreen I believe you investigated and have found no evidence of "shadow mode" actually running on the cars, right?

 

[Intl Professor]

Prosit! As vi say it in Sveeden. Chermans say Gesundheit, but that does not sound right backwards.

Edit: Oh, and while my Latin is week I don't even read Potter. Mucks up my hands, pottery.

Same here. My riposte is less clever than yours.

I could ad our Art Department had a well regarded pottery teacher whose students agreed with her comment. Something to this effect: "Pottery satisfies on a lot of levels the need for psychic healing." I got the same effect from gardening until my psychiatrist did one better with me bragging about his drip irrigation after taking up the pastime on my example. Intellectuals are so competitive. I wonder if there is a suicide of patients rating by psychiatrist? He did speak a lot about high suicide rates among his brethren almost every time in a conversation opener when we met socially. He died of some dreadful blood disease, not suicide.

 

[lascavarian]

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but once Tesla pays off the 920 million it'll reduce the amount of interest they're paying on debt on a quarterly basis right?

OTOH, they also won't have all that cash to derive income from either. Sort of a wash.

 

[EVNow]

So yes, I agree with you, it'll be settled 100% in cash come March 1st...

Paul Huettner, CFA on Twitter

Interesting - why were you following this. Seems to be a den of Pizza gate level conspiracy theorists.

 

[humbaba]

Interesting - why were you following this. Seems to be a den of Pizza gate level conspiracy theorists.

I think you answered your own question.

 

[Intl Professor]

Albert Einstein: The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

He must have got that from a 12-step program, or versa vice.

 

[Tenable]

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but once Tesla pays off the 920 million it'll reduce the amount of interest they're paying on debt on a quarterly basis right? I can't remember the interest rate they're paying. Might be a small amount but it would still go straight to profit?

You are correct technically. However, the rate they were paying on it was so low for a business that they are likely much better served having it.

 

[EVNow]

Interesting price action in the last 20 minutes. Even as Nasdaq went down 20 points quickly - TSLA went up. Wonder why - short covering ?

 

[mongo]

Well, not on public roads in CA, at least.

Also, while I'm on the topic, I noted this in the electrek article, but it's interesting to me that they seem to say they're actually running "shadow mode" directly on the car. I had assumed they just gathered data using the car and let their servers run simulations against it.

@verygreen I believe you investigated and have found no evidence of "shadow mode" actually running on the cars, right?

Getting back to the pre-market discussion, Tesla can run any level of software from EAP to FSD, as long at the nags are there, they do not need to report anything.

At the last call, Elon mentioned that the system uploads data on disengagements, so all EAP driving serves as validation/ testing and provides new data for poorly handled cases.

We feel confident about our technical strategy, and I think we have an advantage that no one else has, which is, that we have, at this point, somewhere in the order of 300,000 vehicles on the road, with a 360-degree camera sensor suite, radar, ultrasonics, always connected uploads, especially video clips with the customer submission when there is intervention. So effectively, we have a massive, massive training fleet.

 

[Tenable]

I don’t know who “tesla_truth” is, but it sure isn’t the deceased Steve Jobs. If people in the Tesla community are not cool with some Twitter account going by the name of “Tesla PR” I’m not sure why they’re cool with some account calling itself “tesla_truth” but falsely using the name and photo of Steve Jobs.

Same reason people despised the trolls on TMC but cheerlead TrendTrader. We hate FUD but many longs enjoy sh*t as long as its bullish. You know.. Bullsh*t

 

[Joe F]

Adam Jonas on CNBC soon. CNBC citing Tesla sales sliding (think they said "on the skids") due to competition. I think that kind of sounds familiar, like, I may have heard that somewhere before. Probably wrong about that though...

EDIT: fixed auto-correct error.

 

[gora321]

See the new BMW M engine - The S58!
A thought:
Ok, every new ICE engine today is a miss, lost of money, additional CO2...it is not the point at the moment.
A birdy from castings supplier told me that there is a shift where no traditional suppliers for German ICE motor blocks are counting increase inquiries. Can anybody confirm?
They must have increased risk with cost calculation. In this case motor last 5 years. Will they guarantee for new one again 5 years? Can they assure annual demand knowing that they developed last generation of ICE. There must be huge risk for supplier to take such order.
I was not aware before of risks from supply side.

 

[Lessmog]

Same here. My riposte is less clever than yours.

I could ad our Art Department had a well regarded pottery teacher whose students agreed with her comment. Something to this effect: "Pottery satisfies on a lot of levels the need for psychic healing." I got the same effect from gardening until my psychiatrist did one better with me bragging about his drip irrigation after taking up the pastime on my example. Intellectuals are so competitive. I wonder if there is a suicide of patients rating by psychiatrist? He did speak a lot about high suicide rates among his brethren almost every time in a conversation opener when we met socially. He died of some dreadful blood disease, not suicide.

Thanks. I guess.
Other than that, there is really not much point in trying to respond in a meaningful way.
But I actually have thrown exactly one pottery bowl, under intense instructions from a talented relative, and it survived the kiln. Actually came out quite nice with his glazing.

Good, patient instruction can be essential. let me tell you, Professor!

Mankind is made of clay, as the Eurythmics song goes. Just don't get thrown.

 

[AlexS]

Does anyone here hold March bonds? was there a notice of reduction of conversion price to holders? As I understand the cash payment will be exactly on March 1. It is not possible to pay some days earlier?
TESLA INC. Bond | Markets Insider

 

[Fact Checking]

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but once Tesla pays off the 920 million it'll reduce the amount of interest they're paying on debt on a quarterly basis right? I can't remember the interest rate they're paying. Might be a small amount but it would still go straight to profit?

Correct, the interest on the convertibles was reduced due to the convertible feature: they had a 0.25% annual interest, which is +$2.3m more GAAP income and to cash flow.

 

[gora321]

History repeats (please don't search who said that)
Greg Wester‏ @gwestr 19m19 minutes ago
$tslaq
in April: "Well, he revealed the Model Y and let everyone drive it, but he'll never build it!"
In August: "Well, he built the Model Y but it was by hand and he'll never automate it"
In January: "Well, he scaled it but everyone canceling their reservation for e-Tron!"

Greg Wester on Twitter

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Getting back to the pre-market discussion, Tesla can run any level of software from EAP to FSD, as long at the nags are there, they do not need to report anything.

At the last call, Elon mentioned that the system uploads data on disengagements, so all EAP driving serves as validation/ testing and provides new data for poorly handled cases.

Right, but the letter says the "shadow mode" is actually running on the physical car. As I remember, evidence to date has suggested that wasn't the case.

 

[Intl Professor]

Thanks. I guess.
Other than that, there is really not much point in trying to respond in a meaningful way.
But I actually have thrown exactly one pottery bowl, under intense instructions from a talented relative, and it survived the kiln. Actually came out quite nice with his glazing.

Good, patient instruction can be essential. let me tell you, Professor!

Mankind is made of clay, as the Eurythmics song goes. Just don't get thrown.

What would you do with Game of the Thrown? (Just to flummox the pure of thread.)

 

[JRP3]

I don’t know who “tesla_truth” is, but it sure isn’t the deceased Steve Jobs. If people in the Tesla community are not cool with some Twitter account going by the name of “Tesla PR” I’m not sure why they’re cool with some account calling itself “tesla_truth” but falsely using the name and photo of Steve Jobs.

You really can't see the difference? Steve Jobs is dead, everyone knows that. Tesla PR is imitating a branch of a currently existing company and purposely trying to deceive.

Same reason people despised the trolls on TMC but cheerlead TrendTrader.

Actually some of us constantly called out TT for bullsh*t because it was dangerous.