Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ammulder]

the passive aggresive, pathetic, lets-keep-doing-things-the-way-they-have-been-done-for-the-last-100-years approach of Germany to the Giga Berlin initiative indicates clearly that Germany has very much lost its mojo [...] China must feel very smug now, looking how EU is failing again in drawing innovation...

Yes, it's clear that a government that's not subject to input from its people is able to move more expeditiously than one that is. Annoying as it will be if is causes Gig Berlin to be delayed... on the whole I still prefer things that way.

 

[mars_or_bust]

Yes, it's clear that a government that's not subject to input from its people is able to move more expeditiously than one that is. Annoying as it will be if is causes Gig Berlin to be delayed... on the whole I still prefer things that way.

Actually, in this case the German government is ignoring the will of the majority of the people, unlike the Chinese government. These legal bureaucratic delaying games have nothing to do with the will of the people.

 

[Chocochip]

cooling system, (speculation: single-crystal, or at least directional grains?)

You need a cooling system (circulated water, most likely) for the dies.

It's not the first time you mention single-crystal parts, and I'm not quite sure where you envision such structures would be useful, particularly with Al alloys. Single crystal growth is used for parts that do better with strong anisotropy and for which structural defects are to be avoided at all costs. Classic examples are turbine blades (Ni superalloys), and Si wafers for electronics. Both of these have very simple (and very directional) geometries. I don't see how such structure would work with cast Al alloy components for automotive structural frames, which have very complex geometries -- remember those structural webbings spotted in the photo included with the Q4 update letter? For that type of geometry, it's actually more desirable to have a fairly fine but uniform grain structure.

 

[Rammstein]

You know what I just realized. I’m not surprised that TSLA is at 800 dollars a share. I never doubted that it would not get there. I am actually surprised how long it took other people to realize that TSLA is by far in the lead when it comes to energy, EVs, and antonymous driving. Although, I guess I shouldn’t be surprised. The propaganda from the media is strong! My friends still think TSLA is a major bubble and I should sell everything now. Can’t wait for it to double from here and see what they say then. Even more of a bubble I bet.

 

[charlesgres]

Sorry if this has already been discussed before, but there are just too many messages here to be able to keep up, but what if a competitor of Tesla came with a battery breakthrough, like say lighter with 2000mi on a charge and faster charging, i.e. completely crushes Tesla tech, how would that affect Tesla? I know Tesla cars are more than their range, i.e. with autopilot, FSD, OAU's, infotainment, etc.. but wouldn't that seriously dampen Tesla's potential as an investment?

 

[MC3OZ]

You know what I just realized. I’m not surprised that TSLA is at 800 dollars a share. I never doubted that it would not get there. I am actually surprised how long it took other people to realize that TSLA is by far in the lead when it comes to energy, EVs, and antonymous driving. Although, I guess I shouldn’t be surprised. The propaganda from the media is strong! My friends still think TSLA is a major bubble and I should sell everything now. Can’t wait for it to double from here and see what they say then. Even more of a bubble I bet.

What I find most interesting is when people say things like "We are always going to need gas", "EVs can't do XYZ" or "The majority of new cars will be ICE for a long time", it is clear that they are making those assumptions because that is all they have ever known, and they are not seeing anything obvious to change their opinion.

Sooner or later their neighbour buys a Tesla, a new Supercharger opens nearby and a few months later someone else in the street buys an EV.... They talk to their neighbour, and find out they are just back from a long road trip in the Tesla, and it was great..

All of a sudden their assumptions are challenged and it occurs to them they never really thought about it...

 

[charlesgres]

Regarding options, there's a lot I am learning here, but I am still a bit mystified about the importance of ITM vs OTM..
Say I buy a $1880 call march 2021.. Assuming the stock has been going up considerably by the end of the option period, I can always sell again with a profit and buy a new LEAP.. Why does it matter whether the option was ITM when I sold? Why would I wait till the expiry? Where's the risk of losing my money? Even if the stock went down I'd still be able to sell at a loss without actually losing 100% of my premium.. Or do I miss something?

 

[Beltsbear]

Sorry if this has already been discussed before, but there are just too many messages here to be able to keep up, but what if a competitor of Tesla came with a battery breakthrough, like say lighter with 2000mi on a charge and faster charging, i.e. completely crushes Tesla tech, how would that affect Tesla? I know Tesla cars are more than their range, i.e. with autopilot, FSD, OAU's, infotainment, etc.. but wouldn't that seriously dampen Tesla's potential as an investment?

A battery like that would change the world. Electric planes, boats and trains. We have been at this for a while, there will be improvements to batteries, but they will be 10% here and 10% there. The first dry electrode batteries will be the biggest gains we have seen in years. And Tesla will be the ones with them.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Sorry if this has already been discussed before, but there are just too many messages here to be able to keep up, but what if a competitor of Tesla came with a battery breakthrough, like say lighter with 2000mi on a charge and faster charging, i.e. completely crushes Tesla tech, how would that affect Tesla? I know Tesla cars are more than their range, i.e. with autopilot, FSD, OAU's, infotainment, etc.. but wouldn't that seriously dampen Tesla's potential as an investment?

Complains about too many messages to keep up....adds another nonsensical one to the pile. You really can’t make this stuff up folks.

 

[MC3OZ]

Sorry if this has already been discussed before, but there are just too many messages here to be able to keep up, but what if a competitor of Tesla came with a battery breakthrough, like say lighter with 2000mi on a charge and faster charging, i.e. completely crushes Tesla tech, how would that affect Tesla? I know Tesla cars are more than their range, i.e. with autopilot, FSD, OAU's, infotainment, etc.. but wouldn't that seriously dampen Tesla's potential as an investment?

IMO it could happen and many car companies have stakes in battery R&D start ups, but realistically most of these battery breakthroughs are probably 5 years away from commercialisation and possibly not significant better than Tesla's Maxwell tech...
IMO the next 5-10 years is a gold rush for EV market share, first in best dressed and Tesla is well placed.
The chance of a competitor car company owning battery tech considerably better than Maxwell, being able to get it to market at scale in less that 5 years, and freezing Tesla out is about 1%... even then Tesla can still probably sell every EV they make until ICE sales are about 5% of the market.

Others having better battery tech doesn't suddenly make ICE better than a Tesla... that is the bottom line.

 

[Driver Dave]

https://www.wsj.com/video/series/shifting-to-electric/the-electric-vehicle-road-test/E390D3C3-5437-4E64-B2F9-8AD8598DEE5A

finally got a chance to watch this.

like reporting on the new smart phone market and ignoring the iPhone and AppStore.

Amazing how far ahead Tesla is.

I can’t imagine why someone would buy anything else. This video is pretty much an ad for “only buy Tesla”

Sad part is people coming away from this video not realizing that the EV world this video describes sucks because other car makers, dealers and chargers suck.

Tesla EV world is awesome.

TSLA is going to be ahead for quite a while. Maybe forever.

 

[jerry33]

IMO it could happen and many car companies have stakes in battery R&D start ups, but realistically most of these battery breakthroughs are probably 5 years away from commercialisation.

And even when they once start being commercialized, it will be another ten years before they are mature enough to make it into vehicles.

 

[Rashomon]

You need a cooling system (circulated water, most likely) for the dies.

It's not the first time you mention single-crystal parts, and I'm not quite sure where you envision such structures would be useful, particularly with Al alloys. Single crystal growth is used for parts that do better with strong anisotropy and for which structural defects are to be avoided at all costs. Classic examples are turbine blades (Ni superalloys), and Si wafers for electronics. Both of these have very simple (and very directional) geometries. I don't see how such structure would work with cast Al alloy components for automotive structural frames, which have very complex geometries -- remember those structural webbings spotted in the photo included with the Q4 update letter? For that type of geometry, it's actually more desirable to have a fairly fine but uniform grain structure.

Single-crystal parts in gas turbines are used as much for creep resistance than anything else; parts where the operating metal temperature is not all that far from the liquidus temperature and are also heavily loaded tend to grow, and that's right into the shrouds for turbine blades. Chocochip is absolutely right that the strongest aluminum parts come from almost the exact opposite of the single crystal process, which tends to require longish solidification. Rather, for aluminum, you would rather freeze the molten alloy as quickly as possible, and get a very fine grain structure without much crystal growth. High-pressure die casting is great for that, but the oxides and porosity that are almost inherent in the process tend to create material properties that are far lower than wrought (forged) properties. But they can be near-net shape and inexpensive, and strong enough. If you want high-strength aluminum castings, google ablation-casting and Alotech. Brilliant process, but not fully commercialized except for heavy truck wheels.

 

[gerebgraus]

Sorry if this has already been discussed before, but there are just too many messages here to be able to keep up, but what if a competitor of Tesla came with a battery breakthrough, like say lighter with 2000mi on a charge and faster charging, i.e. completely crushes Tesla tech, how would that affect Tesla? I know Tesla cars are more than their range, i.e. with autopilot, FSD, OAU's, infotainment, etc.. but wouldn't that seriously dampen Tesla's potential as an investment?

I am not aware of any hardware technology that was in an exponential improvement curve replaced with another technology until that tech. reached its technological limit. I cannot give you an absolute proof that this will not happen, but personally I do not believe it will happen.
Tesla's role is to improve the rate of the exponential improvement of the Li-ion battery and they do a phenomenal job in that.

 

[Prunesquallor]

https://www.wsj.com/video/series/shifting-to-electric/the-electric-vehicle-road-test/E390D3C3-5437-4E64-B2F9-8AD8598DEE5A

finally got a chance to watch this.

like reporting on the new smart phone market and ignoring the iPhone and AppStore.

Amazing how far ahead Tesla is.

I can’t imagine why someone would buy anything else. This video is pretty much an ad for “only buy Tesla”

Sad part is people coming away from this video not realizing that the EV world this video describes sucks because other car makers, dealers and chargers suck.

Tesla EV world is awesome.

TSLA is going to be ahead for quite a while. Maybe forever.

This is a complete hit piece against electric vehicles. Tesla isn’t even mentioned until ⅔ of the way through the video.

 

[tinm]

Here is the Green League website in case anyone wants to write them a letter.
I suspect (with no evidence so far, but will be looking) that they may be controlled partly by infiltrated fossil fuel shills. Many green organizations become 'greenwashed'.
Tesla steht nicht über dem Gesetz

Google Translated article from that Green League site:

Google Translate (“Tesla Is Not Above The Law”)

 

[EV forever]

So, some nuance. At any moment of time, you can get the same net impact from any options strategy because the momentary change in assets with response to changes in the stock price reduces down to a single parameter - delta - and you can choose a given balance of delta-to-cost basis with any options strategy. Indeed, you can incorporate theta into the equation, and still yield the same result with any options strategy.

What a particular options strategy effects is how your options evolve over time with respect to given trends in the stock price. If the greeks on your options start to differ too much from your targets, you need to roll them. E.g., if a call spread starts losing delta relative to cost basis, you can roll it up, and thus, there is no true "cap" to your earnings. However, most people seek to avoid having to roll their options in excess (due to the effort, expense, tax consequences, etc), and want to choose options which continue to have desirable greeks and maximal profit over time. Your options strategy thus should reflect a Monte Carlo simulation of the trends you expect with the stock over time, judged based on how happy you would be with the outcome of the options strategy in that scenario.

A call spread strategy is a strategy focused against swings and only "keeping your eye on the prize". It limits your benefits from unexpected early SP jumps, but also limits your losses in unexpected early SP dips. So they're not always the "financially optimal" choice; indeed, if there was a single options strategy that was perfect, everyone would use it. I certainly had to roll plenty during the recent spike! But for a person whose main goal is the long term, e.g. "eyes on the prize" investment, I find them to be appropriate for me.

Thanks.
I think I understand this a little better now - will try out a few scenarios taking Delta into account. Not exactly sure how to use theta, so will likely ignore it for now.

In the call spread strategy, do you always keep the same strike dates for both the long call and short call? Was wondering if selecting an earlier strike date for the long call and a later strike date for the short call would be better?

 

[printf42]

Sorry if this has already been discussed before, but there are just too many messages here to be able to keep up, but what if a competitor of Tesla came with a battery breakthrough, like say lighter with 2000mi on a charge and faster charging, i.e. completely crushes Tesla tech, how would that affect Tesla? I know Tesla cars are more than their range, i.e. with autopilot, FSD, OAU's, infotainment, etc.. but wouldn't that seriously dampen Tesla's potential as an investment?

Tesla is making more batteries than the rest of the world combined, anyone with such a disruptive tech and a slim chance of making it work in scale would talk with Tesla first, and in fact Tesla is talking with many of the teams who claims to have such a tech.

Even if there is a team not willing to work with Tesla and bring that to the market by themselves, Tesla can and will buy them quickly.

The chance of such tech coming out of another big player that Tesla can not buy is between absurd and impossible. Most of the big players would put money to kill such a tech instead of bringing it to market.

tl;dr:
If there is ever going to be a massive breakthrough in battery tech(instead of steady progressive improvements we are seeing), it highly likely will benefit Tesla and strengthen their lead.

 

[tinm]

This is a complete hit piece against electric vehicles. Tesla isn’t even mentioned until ⅔ of the way through the video.

The WSJ video is extraordinary. Feels Orwellian almost.

But it is a bizarrely useful document at the current moment in one weird way as it kinda helps to answer the question: “Take Tesla out of the equation and what’s left in terms of the EV world as of right now?”

The answer: “Not much, and what little there is sucks.” WSJ’s tone feels like one of relief at that answer—like, “see? toldja EVs suck. Now go take a spin in your big ol’ fossil-mobile and you’ll feel better.”

 

[Singuy]

The WSJ video is extraordinary. Feels Orwellian almost.

But it is a bizarrely useful document at the current moment in one weird way as it kinda helps to answer the question: “Take Tesla out of the equation and what’s left in terms of the EV world as of right now?”

The answer: “Not much, and what little there is sucks.” WSJ’s tone feels like one of relief at that answer—like, “see? toldja EVs suck. Now go take a spin in your big ol’ fossil-mobile and you’ll feel better.”

Actually if you take Tesla out of the equation, the current EV world is hell of a lot better than EV1. So Tesla have moved the industry by that much which is actually night and day difference. But it's the best second rate engineers can do, and it's already more risk these companies are willing to take. Remember, before Tesla, car manufactures would "push the technology envelope" with start/stop at a stop light, disabling cylinders during hwy driving, hybrid technology, and direct injectors in attempt to make their car more green....