Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

EDMUNDs review on E-PickupTrucks

Any reason why Cybertruck couldn't have room for an extra battery pack add on at a later date? This gets more EVs in circulation because of the lower price point, and eases overall battery demand. Then we'd get to add on power using lower-cost batteries... as they become more available. Not talking about pack-changing for the road, instead it would be an upgrade. Like have the base pack permanent, then add at will like a giant memory stick. Maybe too costly with all the cables and contacts, but hmmm.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

One of those CNBC news anchors is going short today. Let's see how well his bet is gonna be.
View attachment 512763

I gotta admit, this was pretty spot on....

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Finally CNBC giving us a bit of credit as a better source of TSLA research. Pretty sure I just heard them cite "a Tesla fan site" as source for Cybertruck news.

 

[AudubonB]

How many of you get messages on days like today to sell? I need new friends. It’s always the people that sold at $320 that want you to get out too.

In two months it might be at 700,600,500, but also somewhere in the next 5 years it’s going to be at 1,000, 2,000, or 3,000. It’s common sense to hold on, ride the small waves and cash out to buy more Tesla’s haha

I graciously cede my crown. We now officially have someone more bullish than I am.

...Looks around for a continent to purchase....

 

[AudubonB]

Is there a list of CEOs with dates?

Unlikely. Most of them are married.

 

[LJS22]

It does point out that FSD cannot rely upon visual cues alone. Nothing will stop people from doing more malicious stuff to signs.

To be fair it’s illegal to graffiti a road sign. I could stop a non autopilot car with road spikes but it’s illegal. I’m more concerned with autopilot mishaps that come from naturally occurring events versus someone doing something blatantly illegal. A trash bag could cover a speed limit sign but Tesla’s rely on their gps to understand the current laws of that road.

Just seems like they wanted to write an article about Tesla and ran with it. It’s a cheap shot but it doesn’t matter much

 

[SOULPEDL]

I am more skeptical about solar roofs.
We all love cool cars as we are in it a lot of time. Cool utilities? I don't really care where my electrics coming from as long as it is cheap.

Solar panels manufacturer are dimes in a dozen. They are ridiculously cheap too.

I'd be happy if i am wrong though.

Mod: DO NOT POST REFERRAL CODES anywhere in the forum other than the sanctioned thread. --ggr.

But even if I ignore that stigma I keep seeing out there because of bad leases in the past, the economics will win. And this is Tesla - people are buying their technology because it freakin works really well and it's a fresh look at what should seem really obvious, and really late in coming.

Like "What, you don't have solar? Is your house in the shade? Sorry to hear that."

 

[LJS22]

Finally CNBC giving us a bit of credit as a better source of TSLA research. Pretty sure I just heard them cite "a Tesla fan site" as source for Cybertruck news.

yea but they also said “analyst opinions haven’t changed, just their price target” the analyst upgrade today went out bought a Tesla, Solar panels and Powerwall. After a couple months he had a eureka moment that this is the future and other Tesla fans will do this. He’s one of the first to acknowledge the energy business as well as the auto. His correlation between the two and Tesla fans is important as many have ignored this. I think it would have been worth mentioning that Tesla is making broader strokes than a typical auto company.

 

[StealthP3D]

Do you believe ARK's 37M by 2024 is likely? That was primary question I raised in original post.

https://research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_Download_Files_ARK-Invest/White_Papers/Big Ideas 2020-Final_011020.pdf?hsCtaTracking=78df7914-8393-4b78-b326-7dfb47024083|4ade617d-5fc7-4646-b699-84d7ac1213c6

Thanks for the link.

I was responding to the implication that the ARK analysis was wildly inconsistent from page to page and that this damaged their credibility. In fact, the two numbers represented completely different things. As to the accuracy of their projections, look at what ARK says about their own forecast for Global EV sales of 37 million from all manufacturers (from page 26 of your link):

The biggest risk to ARK’s forecast is whether or not traditional automakers will be able to scale EV production. If they do, then global EV sales could hit 37 million units in 2024.

So ARK admits their 37 million forecast is dependent upon traditional automakers being able to rapidly scale production. This is in BIG letters. In other words, ARK's valuation projections of TSLA are largely independent of ICE manufacturer's ability to scale EV production. If anything, there is a negative correlation for two reasons:

1) A slower transition from ICE manufacturing to EV manufacturing puts less strain on supplies of raw materials for batteries.
2) A slower transition does not flood the market with EV's. So the theory that Tesla would have trouble selling every EV they produce falls flat.

Said another way, ARK is taking the conservative approach to valuing Tesla by assuming ICE manufacturers might use their existing infrastructure to quickly transition to EV's that will compete with Tesla. If this doesn't happen, Tesla has more of the market to themselves while simultaneously having the huge cost advantages of not having to compete with ICE makers for raw materials that are needed for batteries. Remember, the entire thesis here is predicated on continuing cost declines for EV's. ARK's projection is a worst-case scenario. I agree it's unlikely to play out that way because it would be too painful for ICE makers. Most of them will go bankrupt instead.

How does this argue against ARK's TSLA valuation models?

 

[oldTAVguy]

Just now CNBC some Credit Suisse guy on Environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) etf investing. Shows Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple and Amazon as large holdings. But Tesla is to rich for it to be included.

 

[pz1975]

Funny TSLA day - a 6% SP increase has never seemed so disappointing.

 

[TradingInvest]

I am more skeptical about solar roofs.
We all love cool cars as we are in it a lot of time. Cool utilities? I don't really care where my electrics coming from as long as it is cheap.

Solar panels manufacturer are dimes in a dozen. They are ridiculously cheap too.

I'd be happy if i am wrong though.

Traditional approach:
Cost of customer acquisition (for roof)
Roof material
Labor for roof installation
Cost of customer acquisition (for solar panels)
Solar panels
Labor for panel installation

Tesla's approach:
Roof material
Installation

Tesla's approach will be very competitive once it gets to large scale.

Looking nice is just added benefit.

 

[LJS22]

Can we get a 911 close? I want to see an article tomorrow that says “Tesla bulls call 911 for burning shorts”....I’ll be here all night.

jk I’ll be watching these last 15 minutes though.

 

[M3Rider]

I am more skeptical about solar roofs.
We all love cool cars as we are in it a lot of time. Cool utilities? I don't really care where my electrics coming from as long as it is cheap.

Solar panels manufacturer are dimes in a dozen. They are ridiculously cheap too.

I'd be happy if i am wrong though.

Have you messed with having your roof replaced due to hail? Asphalt shingles get damaged, solar panels do not. But you need to replace the whole roof regardless and coordinate the work between roofers and panel installers. And in CO they are busy and take their sweet time. Very annoying.

Our house had 3 roof replacements in 10 years (2 of which were not mine and I did not know about them until I read the insurance report). 4 roofs total.

This is a terrible waste of money and nerves.

The solar roof looks a lot nicer than those panels slapped on top.

IDK if I wait for the next hail or just replace the thing once 2022 calls mature. But it bothers me a lot. Plus powerwalls will be a nice addition to the package.

 

[avoigt]

Funny TSLA day - a 6% SP increase has never seemed so disappointing.

Yeah, I am totally down - we are only $50 up ...

 

[Zaxxon]

Is there actually anyone here reacting like "Oh no, the stock is only up 6 1/2% today! And what if it declines further and only closes 4% up?!? SELL SELL SELL!!!!"

I would sincerely hope that folks who have been around for awhile are over those sorts of swings. I mean come on; you survived summer 2019? The Model 3 ramp? The Model X launch debacle(s)?

This is wonderful sailing.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

I would sincerely hope that folks who have been around for awhile are over those sorts of swings. I mean come on; you survived summer 2019? The Model 3 ramp? The Model X launch debacle(s)?

This is wonderful sailing.

It’s just human psychology. We are much more affected by losses than by gains.

 

[MABMAB]

So the story about car being tricked into speeding, do you buy it? My car has never reacted to speed limit signs.

 

[killianss]

Make no mistake, the solar explosion will drive itself on pure cost reasons alone. You sound like a serious candidate if you're looking for cheaper electricity. Here's my referral code, I'll even walk you through it. John48043

But even if I ignore that stigma I keep seeing out there because of bad leases in the past, the economics will win. And this is Tesla - people are buying their technology because it freakin works really well and it's a fresh look at what should seem really obvious, and really late in coming.

Like "What, you don't have solar? Is your house in the shade? Sorry to hear that."

Thank you
I have been a proud owner of solar panels for 5 years now. It was good until SDGE (power company) changed the rule for peak hours.

I am still enjoying 9 cent/kwh to charge my cars. If this is getting out of hand, i will use your referral to get power wall.

 

[EV forever]

Unlikely. Most of them are married.

And that stops them from having dates because...........??

Anyways, our favorite CEO is 'unmarried' 3 times or was it 4 times?