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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Your analysis assumes the cars will sell for close to the assumed value, which for now, I agree, they will. But that won't be the case in the future. Probably sooner than most anticipate. So the problem remains, how to unwind the ICE businesses without cratering the company.
For most, that's probably not possible.
 
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A brief RO-RO shipping update (does not include container shipping):

upload_2020-2-19_19-31-49.png


Asian King left on the 16th, after a fairly long loading time of 3,01 days and only 0,69 days idle at port. However there was a significant delay with the arrival of the next ship (Glovis Captain, which arrives tomorrow). If the name sounds familiar, that's because this was the first RO-RO Tesla ever used :) Another ship, Morning Catherine, appears ready to show up after it leaves.

I kind of wonder if the recent arrival of some US February-made inventory was actually "hot off the presses", made to account for the couple days before loading Glovis Captain.

As it stands, it seems almost certain we'll have two more RO-ROs (13), but whether we have 3 (14) more isn't clear. Also, one of the ships appears to have only been a fairly small load. This contrasts to 16 ships in Q4 and 12 in Q3. To reiterate, this does not affect container shipping.

The main decline is that there's only been a single, relatively-short-loading-time ship to China, vs. a whopping five last quarter (due to GF3, of course). Last quarter, a total of 8 RO-RO ships went to Europe; this quarter, 6 have already gone, and there's as mentioned 2-3 more RO-ROs left. This quarter, there's also been two RO-ROs to South Korea and one to Taiwan. Last quarter also saw two to South Korea, and 1 to Japan instead of Taiwan. So in short, the only actual RO-RO shipping decline appears to have been to China, where they're making their own cars now.

Lastly, an Iceland update (!), they're reportedly loading a ship today and tomorrow to send to Iceland, which should arrive a week from now, with first deliveries to start around the following weekend (!!). This may sound like a ferry, but the delivery site they're setting up is right next to the container port. I still strongly expect them to arrive in containers, but the exact shipping details are still unclear. Hopefully I'll be able to gather more information soon. :)
 
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Not that I really listen to Rick Santorum, but did he just say that Housing starts or permits are at a 13 yr high?

OK then. Solar Roofs in Ca... Line up folks ;) The Solar roofs will also drive battery demand... this could easily be the Model S for Sunlight and Energy period. When is that Energy day again? There's something to bet on.

Edit: It might go without saying, but in case... Last year, California mandated solar on ALL new roof installs starting in 2020, and it's 2020. (Already?)
 
It's easy. You download the firmware of all the robots. Then you upload to the exact copies at forked factory. Of course, they'd have ample time to copy the spacing and dimension of your production line down to the milimeter before they go ahead and do that. Sometimes they don't even need to be precise to 1 mm.
Replicating a factory need cooperation among thousands of people. Your chance of getting it perfect the first try is basically 0. A slight mistake can throw you off and you have no debugging tool.

Back then I worked for Microsoft, bringing up an azure data center is a significant endeavor even after all hardware set-up and testing are done. It's like all hands on deck for all operation teams sometimes last a month. This is when we know what we are doing.
 
Not that I really listen to Rick Santorum, but did he just say that Housing starts or permits are at a 13 yr high?

OK then. Solar Roofs in Ca... Line up folks ;) The Solar roofs will also drive battery demand... this could easily be the Model S for Sunlight and Energy period. When is that Energy day again? There's something to bet on.

Edit: It might go without saying, but in case... Last year, California mandated solar on ALL new roof installs starting in 2020, and it's 2020. (Already?)


I am more skeptical about solar roofs.
We all love cool cars as we are in it a lot of time. Cool utilities? I don't really care where my electrics coming from as long as it is cheap.

Solar panels manufacturer are dimes in a dozen. They are ridiculously cheap too.

I'd be happy if i am wrong though.
 
I am currently "gardening" so have quite a lot of free time in my days at the moment. And have found myself watching a lot of Grand Designs on Netflix. Whacky and wonderful house building projects. I know Elon has a lot on his plate but it astounds me how time consuming and expensive it is to build a decent quality family house. Come on Elon, it's the logical extension of solar roof and residential hvac! Disrupt global house building please!
I've already done the legwork - Elon just needs to make it so:
Tesla House / trailer home / travel trailer / RV

Wow,
Is this real? I thought other auto companies are formidable rivals, but they actually have neeeeeeeeegative value?



Legacy is f***ed
@tesla4k

Tesla Market Cap—$144B Total debt—$13B
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BMW Market Cap—$43B Total debt—$113B
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New thread covering the subject:
The demise of the OEMs
 
As we went up quite a bit from yesterday's close the volume so far of >20M feels a little more inline with what could be expected. From the rarified perch we now occupy, further push higher seems a bit less likely than yesterday. There is some reason to believe that option holders may be taking profits here. Model says somewhat less upward pressure now FWIW. Again, there are a lot of underlying assumptions and take this with a grain of salt.

Also, we need to wait until tomorrow AM to get a better picture with new open interest data. Consolidating here is not a bad sign, as is the drop in IVs we saw intraday. Latest run results for your viewing pleasure.

Screenshot_20200219-150503.png
 
Is there actually anyone here reacting like "Oh no, the stock is only up 6 1/2% today! And what if it declines further and only closes 4% up?!? SELL SELL SELL!!!!" ;)

Certainly not here. But other TSLA investing forums (fora?) across the internets are littered with annoying, very weak hands. :rolleyes:
 
Not that I really listen to Rick Santorum, but did he just say that Housing starts or permits are at a 13 yr high?

OK then. Solar Roofs in Ca... Line up folks ;) The Solar roofs will also drive battery demand... this could easily be the Model S for Sunlight and Energy period. When is that Energy day again? There's something to bet on.

Edit: It might go without saying, but in case... Last year, California mandated solar on ALL new roof installs starting in 2020, and it's 2020. (Already?)
Is there any plan for tesla solar roof to be offered with new home construction directly from builders, such as toll brothers, lennar, new home company, etc.?