Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JusRelax]

So the story about car being tricked into speeding, do you buy it? My car has never reacted to speed limit signs.

This is only MS/MX with AP1. I don't have much familiarity with AP1 though, so I didn't know that it reacted to speed signs.

 

[Tslynk67]

Bulls and bears:

TBH I was cheering the bear here, damn she's irritating!

 

[EV forever]

Is there actually anyone here reacting like "Oh no, the stock is only up 6 1/2% today! And what if it declines further and only closes 4% up?!? SELL SELL SELL!!!!"

Well, I did sell my last remaining Feb 28 options today, instead of waiting till next week. I figured the market manipulators will be out in full force for the next few days, why risk good profits?

 

[killianss]

Traditional approach:
Cost of customer acquisition (for roof)
Roof material
Labor for roof installation
Cost of customer acquisition (for solar panels)
Solar panels
Labor for panel installation

Tesla's approach:
Roof material
Installation

Tesla's approach will be very competitive once it gets to large scale.

Looking nice is just added benefit.

This is very helpful description. I am on the first scenario with traditional solar panels.

Now i can see why it is beneficial with power roof. Especially when it is tike to replace the roof anyway.

 

[Singuy]

See my reply to KarenRei. #140749

Do you believe ARK's 37M by 2024 is likely? That was primary question I raised in original post.

https://research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_Download_Files_ARK-Invest/White_Papers/Big Ideas 2020-Final_011020.pdf?hsCtaTracking=78df7914-8393-4b78-b326-7dfb47024083|4ade617d-5fc7-4646-b699-84d7ac1213c6

DaveT made a great video recently about the chasm between early adopters and mainstream adopters. So this 37M number all depends on Tesla so far since no other car maker have made an EV more compelling than their ICE. There's a huge chasm when it comes to not only the EVs need to out perform their ICE brothers to make up for range anxiety, it also needs to be similarly priced. Only Tesla can come close to providing people with this kind of product by 2024. So I don't see 37 M cars. I see whatever Tesla is shipping+ a few hundred thousand.

 

[SpaceCash]

Hahaha, couldn't even properly test 900 before a SHARP bounce.
I am loving this


Bullish AF

 

[Singuy]

Some shorts were trying to be cute, but looks like MM likes the 920 number today.

 

[Unpilot]

I think the big boy's who have been buying lately don't cotton much to being pushed around.
The late session manipulations are loosing their power.

 

[Yuri_G]

So the story about car being tricked into speeding, do you buy it? My car has never reacted to speed limit signs.

Only AP1 cars. Bottom of the barrel fud, fo sho.

 

[ZeApelido]

A brief RO-RO shipping update (does not include container shipping):

View attachment 512834

Asian King left on the 16th, after a fairly long loading time of 3,01 days and only 0,69 days idle at port. However there was a significant delay with the arrival of the next ship (Glovis Captain, which arrives tomorrow). If the name sounds familiar, that's because this was the first RO-RO Tesla ever used Another ship, Morning Catherine, appears ready to show up after it leaves.

I kind of wonder if the recent arrival of some US February-made inventory was actually "hot off the presses", made to account for the couple days before loading Glovis Captain.

As it stands, it seems almost certain we'll have two more RO-ROs (13), but whether we have 3 (14) more isn't clear. Also, one of the ships appears to have only been a fairly small load. This contrasts to 16 ships in Q4 and 12 in Q3. To reiterate, this does not affect container shipping.

The main decline is that there's only been a single, relatively-short-loading-time ship to China, vs. a whopping five last quarter (due to GF3, of course). Last quarter, a total of 8 RO-RO ships went to Europe; this quarter, 6 have already gone, and there's as mentioned 2-3 more RO-ROs left. This quarter, there's also been two RO-ROs to South Korea and one to Taiwan. Last quarter also saw two to South Korea, and 1 to Japan instead of Taiwan. So in short, the only actual RO-RO shipping decline appears to have been to China, where they're making their own cars now.

Lastly, an Iceland update (!), they're reportedly loading a ship today and tomorrow to send to Iceland, which should arrive a week from now, with first deliveries to start around the following weekend (!!). This may sound like a ferry, but the delivery site they're setting up is right next to the container port. I still strongly expect them to arrive in containers, but the exact shipping details are still unclear. Hopefully I'll be able to gather more information soon.

Loading today? That means I saw your Model 3 on a trailer heading N101 near FarceBook this morning.

 

[Nocturnal]

Thanks for the link.

I was responding to the implication that the ARK analysis was wildly inconsistent from page to page and that this damaged their credibility. In fact, the two numbers represented completely different things. As to the accuracy of their projections, look at what ARK says about their own forecast for Global EV sales of 37 million from all manufacturers (from page 26 of your link):

The biggest risk to ARK’s forecast is whether or not traditional automakers will be able to scale EV production. If they do, then global EV sales could hit 37 million units in 2024.

So ARK admits their 37 million forecast is dependent upon traditional automakers being able to rapidly scale production. This is in BIG letters. In other words, ARK's valuation projections of TSLA are largely independent of ICE manufacturer's ability to scale EV production. If anything, there is a negative correlation for two reasons:

1) A slower transition from ICE manufacturing to EV manufacturing puts less strain on supplies of raw materials for batteries.
2) A slower transition does not flood the market with EV's. So the theory that Tesla would have trouble selling every EV they produce falls flat.

Said another way, ARK is taking the conservative approach to valuing Tesla by assuming ICE manufacturers might use their existing infrastructure to quickly transition to EV's that will compete with Tesla. If this doesn't happen, Tesla has more of the market to themselves while simultaneously having the huge cost advantages of not having to compete with ICE makers for raw materials that are needed for batteries. Remember, the entire thesis here is predicated on continuing cost declines for EV's. ARK's projection is a worst-case scenario. I agree it's unlikely to play out that way because it would be too painful for ICE makers. Most of them will go bankrupt instead.

How does this argue against ARK's TSLA valuation models?

I suppose you could argue that widespread EV production/sales means that the share of EVs among the broader market will grow faster (and let Tesla sell more). I suppose that is a positive pressure but less so than the EV market growing slower and Tesla completely dominating the market IMO.

 

[lklundin]

Wow! Just wow! This is what I love about Tesla. They will go wherever reason dictates. I find this incredibly bullish for made in China Model 3 profits! Here's a quote from the article:



That's HUGE! I imagine that means 25% savings on the battery pack but the wording suggests the entire car. Because 25% of the production cost of the entire car sounds too good to be true. Any opinions on that?

Also interesting is that Benchmark Mineral Intelligence appears to be a very credible outfit of battery industry experts who branched out on their own. They recently hired Vivas Kumar from Tesla:

"Vivas was responsible for building Tesla’s lithium ion battery supply chain from May 2017 to April 2019, where he sourced a multi-billion dollar yearly spend portfolio of battery metals and chemicals, as the Gigafactory 1 scaled to become the world’s biggest battery plant and the Model 3 launched."

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence hires Tesla executive as it continues expansion of its EV supply chain advisory team

Yes, this is truly amazing!

So far the assumption has been that Tesla went for cylindrical cells because they were better (wrt. packaging, cooling, whatever) - and that naturally Tesla would somehow have its considerable know-how limited to cylindrical cells - and with their chosen electrodes (nickel, cobalt, manganese).

But then Tesla apparently sees an important market where prismatic cells and iron-phosphate based electrodes make sense, and then they are apparently able to just go there too.

It must be incredibly demoralizing for the competition to see how Tesla adapts to new opportunities, while they themselves seem glued to square one.

 

[Unpilot]

Go out on a limb here and predict a 920 close.

Or like Jonas 1-999

 

[Singuy]

Only AP1 cars. Bottom of the barrel fud, fo sho.

Its FUD but I have been thinking lately that there MUST be some fundamental things done to ready the world for autonomous taxies. I don't think Tesla will ever get to L4-5 without the help on a state or federal level.

Currently the fundamental flaw(probably due to regulatory restriction) is that Teslas when on autopilot cannot break the law (or try it's hardest not to). Not allowing the car to hit solid line is a real drag and I found myself almost missing my exit the other day. It's not the car's fault, but it's just how the lines were marked in which it was solid line all the way until the very last second for the exit. Things like this and clearer markings on city roads need to be established or else L4 wouldn't get approved by the regulators if codes are built into the Tesla that allow it to break traffic laws(you know..drives more like human).

So it must start breaking laws or the road need to be more tailored to autonomous vehicles.

 

[Tslynk67]

Why did you move to Belgium?

I was recruited from the UK in 1999 by the national telecom operator, Belgacom. This was after breaking my leg in 5 places playing football (that's "soccer", yanks) and losing my freelance contract at that time, hence searching for a new job, of which there weren't many due to the pending apocalypse of Y2K. Belgium came up and it was too good an opportunity not to take it.

Can't say "moving to Belgium" was on my bucket-list though, but come for the work, stay for the beer, eh?

 

[Joe F]

Waiting to exhale...

Whew.

 

[ggr]

Is there actually anyone here reacting like "Oh no, the stock is only up 6 1/2% today! And what if it declines further and only closes 4% up?!? SELL SELL SELL!!!!"

No, that would be silly.

Having said that, though...

 

[SOULPEDL]

To be fair it’s illegal to graffiti a road sign. I could stop a non autopilot car with road spikes but it’s illegal. I’m more concerned with autopilot mishaps that come from naturally occurring events versus someone doing something blatantly illegal. A trash bag could cover a speed limit sign but Tesla’s rely on their gps to understand the current laws of that road.

Just seems like they wanted to write an article about Tesla and ran with it. It’s a cheap shot but it doesn’t matter much

Exactly. And someone could put a detour sign off a cliff. Per Tesla service last year, I was told that the lines on the road needed to be the correct color and reflectivity to be a valid line. I'd imagine the same filters would apply to speed signs. Although I've seen confusion from black tar repair lines all over and a sunset glaring.

I think the mistakes made with AI will shift in type from distraction/drunk related accidents to things that appear more nuance... things that no human would miss - labeling the system "stupid" by some critics. But the net safety improves on average, and par for the course when big things like this change.

Once in a Lifetime.

 

[MissAutobahn]

Some shorts were trying to be cute, but looks like MM likes the 920 number today.

For all shorts the exact SP today isn't important anymore. For them it's all 911

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Is there actually anyone here reacting like "Oh no, the stock is only up 6 1/2% today! And what if it declines further and only closes 4% up?!? SELL SELL SELL!!!!"

Ahh...the voice of reason.

Oh, and "not a Bot" is my vote.

Dan