Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

All we need to know now is what ‘soon’ means in China. A few weeks or a few months?

The video of the busy production line is encouraging. The fact that the workers are wearing masks shows it was shot recently.

IIRC back in December they had a peak 8-hour shift production record of more than 200 units.

With two 8-hour shifts that scales to a 2,800 units/week peak throughput, so I don't think assembly throughput is going to be the primary bottleneck - supply chain and battery pack production might: the "Battery Workshop" docks were still not operative in the latest video from three days ago, so I think they are still working with imported GF3 battery packs.

 

[Rarity]

Presumably this also means that they switched to a 2-shift utilization of the factory: 8+8 hours, with 8 hours left for maintenance, on 5 or 7 days per week.

Are you sure it would be an 8-hour shift? As far as I know (vague), that would be very rare in Chinese manufacturing.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Note that the 1,000/week figure is likely just a repeat of old data - Jason Yang is doing drone videos primarily, his English captions are usually summaries of known headlines.

More recent leaks suggest a substantially higher current GF3 production rate of beyond 2k/week, with 3k/week to be achieved "soon" according to a Shanghai government official.

Many shorts are counting on bad Q1 results - which might not materialize.

Do you think there's enough available batteries to sustain the 2-3k per week prior to CATL/LG supply coming online in a few months?

 

[Prunesquallor]

Mercedes capitulating to dieselgate?

'Dieselgate' recall of more Mercedes vehicles 'likely'

Investing in these legacy OEM is like playing Russian roulette, you never know how many of them are equipped with cheat devices.

'"It is likely that in the course of the ongoing and/or further investigations KBA (Federal Motor Transport Authority) will issue additional administrative orders holding that other Mercedes-Benz diesel vehicles are also equipped with impermissible defeat devices," the manufacturer wrote in its annual report.'

Or, you could (just spitballing here) admit to what you’ve done and help the authorities, rather than warning investors you’ll probably get caught.

A richly deserved fate awaits.

 

[avoigt]

The GF4 ground is now empty with a very few exceptions as they found two bats nest still hibernating and some other trees where Lizards may be hiding. Frankly I did not know that so much care is given to every little animal when a construction site is cleared but truly love to hear that. Its never been watched like it is with Tesla for sure. Everybody counts.

So some trees will be felled later but that won't hinder the works. The next step is now to get the emission regulation permit which us a prerequisite for the construction permit. Water supply for phase 1 is guaranteed but other law suites may be filed for phase 2 and 3. I doubt that this can hinder the progress of the construction though.

At March 15th there will be another open hearing that likely will again be misused from FUDsters.

About 150 people demonstrated against GF4 yesterday and its been a wild collection of people who believe you have to decide for drink water or for the GF4 which is obviously nonsense, some politicians from the right wing AfD party, some just don't want a factory at all beside other. A pro demonstration did also happen but had small support. The support from politicians and Germans as such is very strong through despite the media always put the anti GF4 people in the limelight.

As of now everything is according to plan.

 

[Lessmog]

I was born on an island ( San Miguel, Azores) and now live in Rhode Island. Islands are overrated

OT:
Ah, now I recognize the Twin Lakes in your avatar! Nice.
We spent a couple of weeks in Sao Miguel winter of 2001. Also nice.

 

[Tslynk67]

The video of the busy production line is encouraging. The fact that the workers are wearing masks shows it was shot recently.

Given that Elon can deep-fake launches, satellite deployments and stage-1 landings, complete with space-mice I might add, CGI-ing masks onto the workers' faces isn't going to be so difficult.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Buffet released his shareholder letter today.
https://berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2019ltr.pdfhttps://berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2019ltr.pdf (PDF Warning)

He has some interesting statements regarding renewable energy:

Talking about his utility in Iowa:

The extraordinary differential between our rates and theirs is largely the result of our huge accomplishments in converting wind into electricity. In 2021, we expect BHE’s operation to generate about 25.2 million megawatt-hours of electricity (MWh) in Iowa from wind turbines that it both owns and operates. That output will totally cover the annual needs of its Iowa customers, which run to about 24.6 million MWh. In other words, our utility will have attained wind self-sufficiency in the state of Iowa.

Of course, wind is intermittent, and our blades in Iowa turn only part of the time. In certain periods, when the air is still, we look to our non-wind generating capacity to secure the electricity we need. At opposite times, we sell the excess power that wind provides us to other utilities, serving them through what’s called “the grid.” The power we sell them supplants their need for a carbon resource – coal, say, or natural gas.

Today, BHE has the operating talent and experience to manage truly huge utility projects – requiring investments of $100 billion or more – that could support infrastructure benefitting our country, our communities and our shareholders. We stand ready, willing and able to take on such opportunities

Even though Buffet doesn't appear to like Musk, I think it must be becoming clear to him the benefits grid storage could provide.

It also appears that he is setting himself up for a piece of the green new deal if the democrats win the next election. No other energy project is likely to cost anywhere near $100bn.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Buffet released his shareholder letter today.
https://berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2019ltr.pdfhttps://berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2019ltr.pdf (PDF Warning)

He has some interesting statements regarding renewable energy:

Talking about his utility in Iowa:






Even though Buffet doesn't appear to like Musk, I think it must be becoming clear to him the benefits grid storage could provide.

It also appears that he is setting himself up for a piece of the green new deal if the democrats win the next election. No other energy project is likely to cost anywhere near $100bn.

I expect he has come to the realization that wind power can be a money maker, regardless of its "green" credentials.

 

[Tslynk67]

Buffet released his shareholder letter today.
https://berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2019ltr.pdfhttps://berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2019ltr.pdf (PDF Warning)

He has some interesting statements regarding renewable energy:

Talking about his utility in Iowa:






Even though Buffet doesn't appear to like Musk, I think it must be becoming clear to him the benefits grid storage could provide.

It also appears that he is setting himself up for a piece of the green new deal if the democrats win the next election. No other energy project is likely to cost anywhere near $100bn.

Crazy, isn't it? Imagine what could be achieved if Elon, Tim, Warren, Sergei, Bill, and Jeff got together to combat climate change. They alone would probably make the difference...

 

[avoigt]

If I sold everything @ $1,000, I'd be able to retire and live fairly comfortably.

If I sold everything @ $2,000, I'd be able to retire in a way in which I'd never be constrained by money. The only thing I could even imagine spending more money on in my personal life at that point is a bigger house. I have zero interest in jets, yachts, flying 1st class, etc.

However, everyone needs to ask themselves the question why they want to retire. Retirement is basically just freedom in how you spend your time, but with all that newly acquired free time the question becomes: what are you going to spend your time doing now that you're no longer constrained by money?

If your answer to that question is sit around, chill, and sip on Teslaquila at your private island, then that's all good. But I'm only 30 years old, and I know I'd be bored, unhappy, unfulfilled, and disappointed in myself, if I didn't do anything else with my life than make money investing in TSLA.

Money will probably be useful in some of the other things I want to do, so I'm not planning on selling any time soon. I think TSLA is going to at least $10,000 in the next 10-15 years, and although I'll likely take smaller and smaller risks with options in the future, I still plan to continue to increase my share count through long term call options whenever I see good opportunities to do so.

Its interesting to see all people to start discussing retirement and many see it as the holy grail they have been striving for the entire life. Its actually not.

Luckily I can share some experience as I had the luxury in my life although I left my home village with exactly €10 in my pocket to have had 3 about +1 year long intended, call it leisure or sabbaticals where I had done for instance world around trips so I have been on many islands too Right now I do what people may call retirement but in fact I built my own small company and I have plans to built an organization that has some larger positive impact on climate change versus what I can do alone, in 3-4 years.

In short, people do completely underestimate what it means to retire and I recommend to put some good thought around it and prepare carefully. I'm not talking about the financial part here which is, believe it or not, the easier part of the work.

Most believe all will be fine when they stop work underestimating that once all falls away they called to be a hassle or burden a few months later they usually fall in a deep, dark whole. Families break, people get depression and usually you loose all your friends too as they somehow adore what you achieved but you are not any longer a person they understand. You can be lucky to have 1 or 2 very good friends left who can manage it emotionally if you are all of a sudden rich and independent.

Money makes you only happy for a short period when it increased but after you gonna find yourself comparing against a new peer group and trying to do better than they do. Its a stupid game but there is a way out of it if you are willing to work on your personality and character.

If you have made enough to retire its essential to find a new meaning in life. If you don't have one to strive and work for you will find your life and yourself quickly to be meaningless which is about the worst that can happen.

Happens though to the majority of people who get rich and for most it does not end well.

Sorry for the dark post here but despite all believe having money solves problems I can tell it does create quite some too.

But if you manage than your life will be much better than everything you ever had. Thats also from experience

 

[KarenRei]

(Feb 20) Gigafactory 3 resumes production of 1,000 Model 3s per week

Confirmed by Vincent:

Vincent on Twitter
Video here:
https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0...d.mp4?&autoplay=0&loop=1&playlist=DgryOEVr2PI
Shows some nice details of the production line.

No, seriously though, I'm really glad to see this, as this time of year has a lot of uncertainty to quarterly estimates; all estimates, including mine, should be treated as highly unreliable at this point. It's always nice as situations start to clarify.

My earlier estimates for GF3@Q1 were, starting with the known 2,5k : 800/wk before the holiday, then 1k : 500/wk across the first two open weeks in February, 1k : 1k/wk for the last week in February, then 1,6k/wk averaged across March, for a total of 11,6k in Q1 (vs. my start-of-quarter estimate of 5-20k, with a median case of 8-9k). I almost wonder if the current estimate is too pessimistic. But I don't think I should upgrade it yet; best to assume that Things Don't Go According To Plan and that "Soon" isn't necessarily "Very Soon".

I expect there to be very little inventory left as well, since they'll be able to do what Fremont does in the US - save the local market (Shanghai) for last, and potentially even doing factory-gate deliveries on the final day.

 

[Highway2Heel]

I expect he has come to the realization that wind power can be a money maker, regardless of its "green" credentials.

It’s all about the batteries and battery storage. Like I’ve mentioned before, I’m desperately trying to lead my utility in that direction. My brethren in the Tennessee Valley are slow adopters...

 

[jerry33]

Mercedes capitulating to dieselgate?

'Dieselgate' recall of more Mercedes vehicles 'likely'

Investing in these legacy OEM is like playing Russian roulette, you never know how many of them are equipped with cheat devices.

But you could find out by getting the number of diesel cars from the DMV.

 

[Highway2Heel]

Honestly, I’ve been waiting a few days for that Jay in Shanghai update. I expected a really good update and it was even better than expected. Production of 3k/week is lights out...pun intended.

 

[jerry33]

Most believe all will be fine when they stop work underestimating that once all falls away they called to be a hassle or burden a few months later they usually fall in a deep, dark whole. Families break, people get depression and usually you loose all your friends too as they somehow adore what you achieved but you are not any longer a person they understand. You can be lucky to have 1 or 2 very good friends left who can manage it emotionally if you are all of a sudden rich and independent.

Not an issue. I started with two friends, still have the same two friends, and likely will keep the same two friends. And I only have enough Tesla stock so that I'll be spared the cat food diet if all continues to go well. i should also have enough to replace the current Tesla.

 

[AudubonB]

MODERATOR:

Be supremely careful how you present altered wordings. Best practice is to color a changed word or words, then use “My version”, etc, in an appendage with the same color.


“FTFY”, “Fixed”, etc. should be used only in jocular situations.


This isn’t rocket science, folks. Common sense.

To be massaged with color, etc., when I awaken

Mod: colored. --ggr

 

[dw4ngg]

Crazy, isn't it? Imagine what could be achieved if Elon, Tim, Warren, Sergei, Bill, and Jeff got together to combat climate change. They alone would probably make the difference...

Imagine if our superheroes got together to form the Avengers...

 

[steak&chicken]

Something to investigate - talk to IB is what I would do (or any other broke you're interested in) - brokers have an account transfer type of function. I've used it to move positions when I shifted over to Fidelity. The account transfer might just pick up your current account with all of it's positions as is (including the margin debt - this is mostly why you'll need to talk to IB first). No need to convert the positions to cash, and then back to the positions you want.

You might be able to fill out the paperwork for an account transfer, and shift the account from wherever it is to IB (including changing your margin interest payments over to IB's schedule). No taxable events, no conversion into cash and then later back. Just change brokers.

That is advice to talk to IB - I'm not a broker or in the finance industry; I've used an account transfer and it was as easy sounding as I've made it, but I didn't have a margin loan I needed to figure out. I did have stock positions that I didn't convert to cash, and then convert back into stock positions afterwards.

(And I was moving over to Fidelity, but it sure sounded like a standardized industry function - not something special Fidelity did).

Thanks. I'll talk with IB and also TD Ameritrade and see I can get slightly lower margin rate. But my plan is to get off margin completely sometime this year.

You can call your local TD agent and negotiate a lower rate. I literally experienced the same as you. bought in at 420 tweets. High on margin for the 2 years with TDAmeritrade, a lot of gray hairs at a relatively young age. Since your margin loan is big, TD may agree to give you a better rate. I now pay below 4% overal.

I contacted them before, but I didn't get a callback. But hearing about your positive experience, I might reach out to them again. Thanks.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

View attachment 514218



No, seriously though, I'm really glad to see this, as this time of year has a lot of uncertainty to quarterly estimates; all estimates, including mine, should be treated as highly unreliable at this point. It's always nice as situations start to clarify.

My earlier estimates for GF3@Q1 were, starting with the known 2,5k : 800/wk before the holiday, then 1k : 500/wk across the first two open weeks in February, 1k : 1k/wk for the last week in February, then 1,6k/wk averaged across March, for a total of 11,6k in Q1 (vs. my start-of-quarter estimate of 5-20k, with a median case of 8-9k). I almost wonder if the current estimate is too pessimistic. But I don't think I should upgrade it yet; best to assume that Things Don't Go According To Plan and that "Soon" isn't necessarily "Very Soon".

I expect there to be very little inventory left as well, since they'll be able to do what Fremont does in the US - save the local market (Shanghai) for last, and potentially even doing factory-gate deliveries on the final day.

But unfortunately there still are some uncertainties:

- Two suppliers are back to 50 and 60% of their previous production capacity, according to the report. Will this be a bottleneck limiting output of finished cars in the short term?

- Are they getting enough packs from GF1? And if so, will that cannibalize Model 3 production in Fremont (which for now probably has better margins) or even limit the acceleration of Model Y production? Carsonight, who seems to have good sources, indicated stable battery pack production, not a significant increase.