Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[goinfraftw]

So...at what point does Tesla get a “please-save-society-from-climate-change” premium multiple on its valuation?

 

[dl003]

So...at what point does Tesla get a “please-save-society-from-climate-change” premium multiple on its valuation?

I don't know but I think we're already getting the "I-am-parking-money-here-because-the-rest-of-the-industry-is-garbage" premium.

 

[goinfraftw]

I don't know but I think we're already getting the "I-am-parking-money-here-because-the-rest-of-the-industry-is-garbage" premium.

In which industry?

 

[dl003]

In which industry?

Auto of course.

 

[AlMc]

FUTs dropped quite a bit..hopefully TSLA will be immune to Corona/market drop.

 

[Highway2Heel]

TSLA with a flat top and ascending bottom since February 4. I’m bullish...

 

[goinfraftw]

Auto of course.

Well, there's: auto, solar, batteries, services, ai boards. Who knows what else going forward and from what I'm probably missing.

In terms of multiples:
1. Auto - which is where Tesla has primarily been valued in terms of multiples
2. Tech - which is where Tesla seems to be moving towards (as solar + batteries scale)
3. SW Tech - which is where Tesla will be moving towards (I think) as services scale the more HW (auto + solar + batteries) is out there
4. Market - the general market scale of what is going to be considered valued and where products and services are sold
5. "OMG CLIMATE CHANGE" - panic in regards to climate change actually being considered real by majority of the public, finally...

The Market is ill-defined. It's not climate tech yet, IMO, and that's very amorphous and/or very undervalued if it is defined. My 2 cents.

 

[Highway2Heel]

Opportunities multiply as they are seized.

 

[Silentk]

Seen on Twitter (Emil Senkel on Twitter)

 

[jerry33]

Overall market sentiment questions later this year: If Bernard Sanders is elected president, will big investors pull their money out of the stock markets?

If so, will just the decent chance of him getting elected start a drop? Could we some effect of this across the market as early as March, if it becomes clear he will be the nominee?

For the record I would support his candicacy, and long term pro environment should be good for Tesla, but I have concerns that this may have some negative effect in the next 9 months.

The more likely scenario is that if he wins, the incumbent will create a budget that tanks the economy. Remember, the first year of any presidency uses the previous President's last budget, but the current President will get the blame even though he had zero control over it.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Why are we transitioning from a conversation about graphene into one about solid state cells (another relatively overhyped tech)?

Solid state cell = you're trying to let lithium ions diffuse through a piece of glass as quickly and easily as they can through a liquid, and have the piece of glass as thoroughly contact the active materials of the anode and cathode as a liquid would contact them, in order to be immune from dendrites in lithium metal anodes, except that A) in practice they're often not always immune to dendrites, B) dendrites are not the big problem you have to tackle (disjoint pieces of Li metal surrounded by a SEI is the bigger challenge... e.g. coloumbic efficiency has to be exceedingly high), and C) there's been huge progress in suppressing dendrites via electrolyte changes in the past year regardless.

Wow! I feel smarter after reading this post. Thank you Karen.

 

[Opus BC fan]

Crystal ball says ignition is a GO!

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[dl003]

Futures blood red how we feeling

TSLA is the future.

 

[Highway2Heel]

Futures blood red how we feeling

I’m good. Money will flow where the opportunity is. I see this as rocket fuel for TSLA. Bond yields are at lows. The money isn’t flowing there.

 

[SpaceCash]

Futures blood red how we feeling

Great. TSLA often shrugs off futures. Like more often than not.

 

[gerebgraus]

wolfe research with rob maruer

For me the interview was very interesting.
I like to listen to Rob Maurer. He is about 10% new information for me, but 90% is listening to hear exactly what I think feels nice confirmation. (Of course that is dumb, I should listen to something that challenges my views. Can I be blamed that TSLAQ-s are becoming idiotic?)
Dan Galves info was what grabbed me. First, he explains the role of small firms buy-side analyst. He does not make his money by issuing target price and short analysis to support it. That is his advertisement to get corporate investors to hire them as consultants, and that is how he makes his money. He is way more optimistic than his below-market target price, but he feels that this is the prudent thing to do until some assumptions in the near future get confirmed. He said multiple times that Tesla's finances are now clean. The gross margin of their cars are now at parity with the legacy carmakers and that is amazing at their current scales. The most interesting part is that his recent conversations with portfolio managers typically start with the portfolio managers showing their calculations that show insanely high profits projected for Tesla within a couple years. Their question is where did I make the error? I do not believe my numbers. and his answer is that there is nothing wrong, but on several assumptions we need confirmation. (I am skeptical about the amount of disclosures battery day provide, but I believe that portfolio managers will get the confirmation for their numbers. And most of them will drive Tesla anyway.)

 

[kbM3]

wolfe research with rob maruer

And what's interesting about this? Can you give us a summary?

What I found interesting is that it’s very much a viewpoint into the mindset of analysts and fund managers.

If you want to understand the psychology of Wall St, this is very enlightening. It is a must watch from that perspective.

I invested in Tesla because I’m an engineer and was dazzled by the brilliance of Elon and JB in interviews. I’m a long time car fan and was very impressed with the Model S reviews.

So I reasoned that if Tesla grows at 50% / year, then over time the share price will roughly grow at the same rate. In my Excel spreadsheet I assumed a conservative 30% share price return and boy was it off last year. I’ll have to revisit it and see how close it is now-)

Wall St. doesn’t take Elon’s word for things (like I do). They need to see evidence of cash flows. Then they project out a few years and assign a multiple based on that. The problem is that if you project cash flow out to 2023 and get one valuation, then that valuation will increase 50% next year when you model cash flow out to 2024. I.e. Wall St. is continuously underpricing the stock because they only project a few years out.

I think it boils down to we pretty much believe Elon and invest early and through thick and thin, and Wall St., just follows their models. So if Operating Expenses grow quicker than they expect this year, they’ll plug in worse cash flow and hammer the stock.

Dan Alves is very knowledgeable and intelligent, but Wall St. definitely is leaving an opening for us retail investors that believe in Elon, technology and the very long term.

 

[Navin]

Let me tell you what will happen.

Tesla will be down premarket and again at the open. Then gradually increase. Then gradually fade. Then gradually go up. Then go down. All in all will likely move approx in beta correlation to market with a slight hard on given the truth that everyone sees.

 

[SpaceCash]

...with a slight hard on given the truth that everyone sees.

 

[MC3OZ]

For me the interview was very interesting.
I like to listen to Rob Maurer. He is about 10% new information for me, but 90% is listening to hear exactly what I think feels nice confirmation. (Of course that is dumb, I should listen to something that challenges my views. Can I be blamed that TSLAQ-s are becoming idiotic?)
Dan Galves info was what grabbed me. First, he explains the role of small firms buy-side analyst. He does not make his money by issuing target price and short analysis to support it. That is his advertisement to get corporate investors to hire them as consultants, and that is how he makes his money. He is way more optimistic than his below-market target price, but he feels that this is the prudent thing to do until some assumptions in the near future get confirmed. He said multiple times that Tesla's finances are now clean. The gross margin of their cars are now at parity with the legacy carmakers and that is amazing at their current scales. The most interesting part is that his recent conversations with portfolio managers typically start with the portfolio managers showing their calculations that show insanely high profits projected for Tesla within a couple years. Their question is where did I make the error? I do not believe my numbers. and his answer is that there is nothing wrong, but on several assumptions we need confirmation. (I am skeptical about the amount of disclosures battery day provide, but I believe that portfolio managers will get the confirmation for their numbers. And most of them will drive Tesla anyway.)

I like listening to Dave Lee as he is bullish with a dose of common sense, Rob is also great as he focuses on what is important....

The other side of the argument has a high noise to signal component... when analysts and critics better understand Tesla we might get more informed and valid criticism...

The problem at the moment is only the bull side is making coherent sense, we are not getting both sides of the argument... even when you are winning you need to apply commonsense and manage risk...