Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Highway2Heel]

Um, aren't bond yields low because money is flowing there? If money wasn't flowing there, yields would float higher...

Yes, but let me clarify MY stance. If interest rates go up bond prices become more attractive and I’m not in the camp that believes the Fed will be raising rates anytime soon. Personal opinion. Currently the yields aren’t enough to make my heart flutter. 30-year yields at 1.97%. Nah, I’ll pass. I’d rather sit on cash or invest in high growth. Which is what I think will continue with investors who stay in equities and TSLA certainly qualifies as high growth.

Now, for the risk averse, bonds would certainly be better than what Apple, Huawei, et al might do for the next few months...

 

[KarenRei]

Ship #12 (Hoegh Oslo) heading into San Francisco Bay to Pier 80. Comparison of RO-RO destinations thusfar, Q1 vs (Q4):

CN: 1 (4)
EU: 7 (8)
SK: 2 (2)
JP: 0 (1)
TW: 1 (0)

So add #12 to one of those. It's still early enough that it could go to any destination (I'd guess EU, bringing it up to 8 vs. 8).

Re, quantities and rates shipped: historically, ships to China generally carried fewer cars than to the EU, and it's really only China that's down (because, obviously, of GF3). Some other metrics:

Avg. loading times, whole quarter: 2,5d (2,8d)
Avg. loading times, past month: 2,7d (3d)

Additional ships: Unclear. Hoegh Oslo is arriving on day 54. Past last-ship arrival-for-loading days include:

Q4: 56
Q3: 70 (Philadelpha) / 65 (San Francisco)
Q2: 81
Q1: 66

Normally last-EU ships arrive on day 56-57, but Philadelpha obviously lets one extend that if need be.

In short, there could be no more ships after Hoegh Oslo, or a few; we can't really say at this point.

 

[MC3OZ]

Shaun seems very confident Prismatic for China (only) SR 3 (only) is happening..

 

[Cosmacelf]

I like listening to Dave Lee as he is bullish with a dose of common sense, Rob is also great as he focuses on what is important....

The other side of the argument has a high noise to signal component... when analysts and critics better understand Tesla we might get more informed and valid criticism...

The problem at the moment is only the bull side is making coherent sense, we are not getting both sides of the argument... even when you are winning you need to apply commonsense and manage risk...

I agree. But here's a way to see how Tesla is really doing, given historical information.

The bears had a point when the stock was around $200 - it was during model 3 production hell and Elon was sleeping on the factory floor. After that episode he said that Tesla had a near death experience. I think he was being melodramatic, but not according to Elon. Anyways, the point is that if Elon is spending time with SpaceX, looks happy and doesn't pick quixotic fights with strangers, then chances are things are going fine at Tesla.

 

[azaz]

tomorrow might be an ok call buying day if you dont think coronavirus becomes a pandemic. futures already down 2%

 

[Highway2Heel]

Case in point:

Tesla is Slowly Pushing Germany Into Recession

 

[azaz]

tomorrow is gonna be a real test, the market might open 1-3% down

 

[EVFan888]

tomorrow might be an ok call buying day if you dont think coronavirus becomes a pandemic. futures already down 2%

Markets are down everywhere. DOW futures are down 1.5%, Hang Seng down 1.9=8% and Kospi down 3.5%. Yikes. Hope this doesn't affect TSLA too much.

 

[Opus BC fan]

I don't think there is a safer harbor than TSLA. I'm looking at what other stocks I might add to my greatly unbalanced portfolio tomorrow.

 

[Eugene Ash]

Holding my Tesla position firm but I got PUTs in for SPY 10% and 20% down with expiries in April and some stupid PUTs in decemeber for a 66% drop, (the potential for this to happen is near zero but they are so damn cheap why the hell not, worked for me once with the tesla 690 calls in 2021)

Still not advice, just a crazy move by someone who doesn't have a clue what they are doing.

Also spy -20 put holder

 

[BornToFly]

Question about covered calls. I want to sell 1/3 of my shares at 1200 so I can retire. I sold some covered calls for 1200 SP. If the SP goes above 1200 before the expiration, can I force the shares to be sold to the holder of the calls before the expiration date, or do I have to wait until the expiration date, or wait for THEM to call the shares away early?

P.S. - Don't worry everyone, I plan to keep the rest of the shares until 4,000 so I can buy the island next to Krugerrand, and launch model rockets loaded with dog toys over his wall ....

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Markets are down everywhere. DOW futures are down 1.5%, Hang Seng down 1.9=8% and Kospi down 3.5%. Yikes. Hope this doesn't affect TSLA too much.

First ever post LOL

 

[Boomer19]

Question about covered calls. I want to sell 1/3 of my shares at 1200 so I can retire. I sold some covered calls for 1200 SP. If the SP goes above 1200 before the expiration, can I force the shares to be sold to the holder of the calls before the expiration date, or do I have to wait until the expiration date, or wait for THEM to call the shares away early?

P.S. - Don't worry everyone, I plan to keep the rest of the shares until 4,000 so I can buy the island next to cat boy, and launch model rockets loaded with dog toys over his wall ....

when you’re long, you can sell, wait for expiration (ITM auto-exercise, OTM expires worthless) or exercise early.
“in the money - out of the money”
when you’re short, you can cover (buy back) or wait for exp (again, OCC auto-exercises anything .01 ITM and up)

 

[hacer]

...
Does Buffett think BRK has some moat that protects them from other investment strategies? I wonder if anyone has asked Buffett what his moat is?

Having the highest stock price /S

 

[Mike Smith]

The context was that if EU automakers had some ZEVs to offer, they could sell them at s loss and potentially undercut Tesla sales.

The EU automakers didn't bother securing battery supplies, so they can't undercut Tesla by lowering prices - they'll just run out even faster.

 

[printf42]

Case in point:

Tesla is Slowly Pushing Germany Into Recession

Tesla might be able to capture 90% of profits in auto industry faster than I thought, not because they grow even faster than I thought, but because other players quickly race to the bottom then balance between negative profits and bankruptcy.(with help of endless national bailouts)

They had the chance to be helped to transit to sustainable transportation, but they refused,

 

[Eugene Ash]

Just a note of perspective, but BRK has underperformed S&P500 over the last 10 years.

True, but every time they underperform, ends up in something spectacular. Time and time again. Just a matter of time horizon.

 

[MC3OZ]

The EU automakers didn't bother securing battery supplies, so they can't undercut Tesla by lowering prices - they'll just run out even faster.

A further consideration is a supply of cheap EVs may just reduce ICE demand while not significantly reducing demand for Teslas...

I'm not worried about a price war until EVs are 95% of the car market, or until someone can show me an ICE for around the same total cost of ownership that is clearly better than a Tesla .

 

[EVFan888]

First ever post LOL

Lol well I just bought into TSLA in the 900's so I'm probably a bit more nervous than most here.

 

[Buckminster]

I smell a Tesla killer:
Exclusive: new ID R sports car to pioneer secret battery tech | Autocar
They have patented the battery tech. What should we do?