Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Unpilot]

and of course Stealth beat me to it

Well it is in the name....Stealth

 

[Artful Dodger]

Seems to be some support in the Pre-market at $767 which is not a surprising level since just 3 weeks ago large funds were willing to pony up over $2B at that SP.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

This thread has brought me much insight and entertainment over the years but I’ll be signing off from it for a while, due to the wholly inappropriate policy of the mods in preventing any discussion at all of the single greatest stock price driver right now.

Meanwhile mods are perfectly happy to allow endless discussions of aggressive options strategies, which are outright dangerous to inexperienced eyes and ears.

By forcing negative market drivers into sub forums and pushing get rich quick schemes in this thread, they are creating a particularly dangerous environment for inexperienced retail investors.

No doubt this post too will get deleted, feel free to delete my other 600-700 odd while you’re at it, at least some of which I hope have been helpful to some.

I'll try to explain the mod policy. There is a lot of macro stuff that is market moving. Corona virus, China trade war, Brexit, employment reports, Fed notes, oil prices, Trump tweets, Sanders' standing in the polls, Trump tweets and so on. They cannot all have a place in the main thread, especially when discussed in depth, as that would drown out the posts that are much more relevant to Tesla's future. This has nothing to do with the possible negative impact of these topics, as they can be positive too. These topics are not banned, they simply get their own thread. And if that thread moves down the list there is apparently not enough interest for that particular discussion. Important topics will stay at the top of the list. And the corona virus thread is now even a sticky, so easy to find.

 

[bhtooefr]

This is why I've been saying that there should not be a main thread...

 

[KarenRei]

This is why I've been saying that there should not be a main thread...

Eliminating the concept of a main thread has been tried repeatedly. It doesn't work. One thread always turns into the "main thread", and people resist going to others.

I think the current approach is probably the best we can get.

 

[bhtooefr]

Eliminating the concept of a main thread has been tried repeatedly. It doesn't work. One thread always turns into the "main thread", and people resist going to others.

I think the current approach is probably the best we can get.

It should also be pointed out that our current selective factors are heavily biased towards breeding less deadly forms of the disease. If a bunch of people start dying in a given area, it draws a ton of of attention and widespread containment measures occur. But mild cases that spread without anyone noticing that they're not just another seasonal flu are what seed these new pockets.

Clearly the current approach isn't working.

 

[vikings123]

Seems to be some support in the Pre-market at $767 which is not a surprising level since just 3 weeks ago large funds were willing to pony up over $2B at that SP.

I would not be surprised to see SP trade in the 740-750 range today. There was a lot of uptick on the 750 2/28 PUTS volume yesterday. MMs will likely take advantage of the general bearish sentiment to sell more PUTS today and probably settle the SP around 750 for options expiry tomorrow.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Throwback Thursday: Mother of Invention Maye Musk on NBC's Today show last year

Cheers!

 

[Fact Checking]

I would not be surprised to see SP trade in the 740-750 range today. There was a lot of uptick on the 750 2/28 PUTS volume yesterday. MMs will likely take advantage of the general bearish sentiment to sell more PUTS today and probably settle the SP around 750 for options expiry tomorrow.

Here's the current options open interest for tomorrow's expiry, rounded to $10 boundaries

 PUT   640:     420 |                    |   CALL   640:     239 |                    |
 PUT   650:   2,737 |##                  |   CALL   650:     405 |                    |
 PUT   660:     951 |                    |   CALL   660:     103 |                    |
 PUT   670:   1,121 |#                   |   CALL   670:     118 |                    |
 PUT   680:   1,720 |#                   |   CALL   680:     333 |                    |
 PUT   690:   1,367 |#                   |   CALL   690:     268 |                    |
 PUT   700:  10,082 |#######             |   CALL   700:     627 |                    |
 PUT   710:   2,648 |##                  |   CALL   710:     277 |                    |
 PUT   720:   4,041 |###                 |   CALL   720:     363 |                    |
 PUT   730:   2,016 |#                   |   CALL   730:     348 |                    |
 PUT   740:   3,528 |##                  |   CALL   740:     425 |                    |
 PUT   750:   7,971 |#####               |   CALL   750:   1,316 |#                   |
 PUT   760:   2,180 |#                   |   CALL   760:     472 |                    |
 PUT   770:   3,225 |##                  |   CALL   770:   1,634 |#                   |
 PUT   780:   8,763 |######              |   CALL   780:   2,882 |##                  |
 PUT   790:   5,747 |####                |   CALL   790:   2,126 |#                   |
 PUT   800:   9,911 |######              |   CALL   800:   6,556 |####                |
 PUT   810:   1,876 |#                   |   CALL   810:   4,000 |###                 |
 PUT   820:   1,935 |#                   |   CALL   820:   4,754 |###                 |
 PUT   830:   1,259 |#                   |   CALL   830:   4,302 |###                 |
 PUT   840:   1,640 |#                   |   CALL   840:   3,968 |##                  |
 PUT   850:   2,664 |##                  |   CALL   850:  10,863 |#######             |
 PUT   860:     817 |                    |   CALL   860:   3,132 |##                  |
 PUT   870:     640 |                    |   CALL   870:   2,269 |#                   |
 PUT   880:     874 |                    |   CALL   880:   3,536 |##                  |
 PUT   890:   1,634 |#                   |   CALL   890:   2,866 |##                  |
 PUT   900:   1,886 |#                   |   CALL   900:   9,697 |######              |
 PUT   910:     709 |                    |   CALL   910:   3,656 |##                  |
 PUT   920:     769 |                    |   CALL   920:   2,624 |##                  |
 PUT   930:     485 |                    |   CALL   930:   2,615 |##                  |
 PUT   940:     153 |                    |   CALL   940:   2,259 |#                   |
 PUT   950:     803 |                    |   CALL   950:   3,637 |##                  |
 PUT   960:     174 |                    |   CALL   960:   1,848 |#                   |
 PUT   970:      26 |                    |   CALL   970:   1,596 |#                   |
 PUT   980:      65 |                    |   CALL   980:   1,457 |#                   |
 PUT   990:       8 |                    |   CALL   990:   2,632 |##                  |
 PUT 1,000:      69 |                    |   CALL 1,000:  10,024 |#######             |
 PUT 1,010:       8 |                    |   CALL 1,010:   3,466 |##                  |
 PUT 1,020:      23 |                    |   CALL 1,020:   2,643 |##                  |
 PUT 1,030:      66 |                    |   CALL 1,030:   1,154 |#                   |
 PUT 1,040:       6 |                    |   CALL 1,040:   1,322 |#                   |

The obvious sweet spot for tomorrow's TSLA closing price for market makers and other options writers would be around $800: this eliminates 90% of the calls and 90% of the puts.

A closing price close to $800 would eliminate both the calls and the puts at $800, where the open interest is 15,000 contracts.

But other market forces might override market-maker pricing concerns, in which case the battle boundaries are $750 and $700 on the downside and $800 and $850 on the upside.

 

[Artful Dodger]

A closing price close to $800 would eliminate both the calls and the puts at $800 - 15,000 contracts.

Lol, what's the Expiry on those $15,000 Calls?

( i know, u meant 15K contracts at $800, but really, 2025? )

Cheers!

 

[Prunesquallor]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/02/26/hydrogen-fuel-cell-cars/

'Ally Rose said she pulled up to the Woodland Hills fueling station in her 2018 Toyota Mirai one day when the driver of another hydrogen-fuel-cell vehicle abruptly approached from behind and slammed down the fuel lever.


“You’re done,” he said, according to Rose, who said the owner was wary that her car would suck the last drops of hydrogen from the only station for miles.


Amid her chronic inability to fuel, Rose persuaded Toyota to pay for her to rent a car: a Tesla Model 3.'

 

[mongo]

Tl;Dr; hundreds of Tesla batteries is in line with estimates.

From the story: “Both projects will use hundreds of lithium batteries to store the clean-renewable energy...”

Maybe it isn’t as big as we would have hoped - about 10% of 1 Model S battery pack!

(they obviously meant something different, probably hundreds of Powerpacks or something)

Batteries are typically* collections of cells. Tesla Moss will use Megapack batteries. Megapack is up to 3MWh of capacity Introducing Megapack: Utility-Scale Energy Storage

The Tesla portion of Moss is 182.5 MW for 4 hours for 730 MWh, so at least 244 Megapacks are needed storage wise. Inverter capacity is 1.5 MW peg Mega (2 hour discharge) or 122 units, so energy requirements dominate. //www.pge.com/en/about/newsroom/newsdetails/index.page?title=20180629_pge_proposes_four_new_cost-effective_energy_storage_projects_to_cpuc

Vistra's portion is 300 MW for 4 hours or a whopping 1,200MWh (near as doesn't matter to 1.21 Jiggawatt hours).

My question is, will Vistra be using Tesla as a supplier of 400+ Megapacks? As of July, 2028 they had not chosen a battery supplierVistra, Tesla and PG&E seeking world’s first 1 GWh+ batteries

Salt River used unbranded power packs Texas to get its largest battery, coupled with its largest solar power plant, and this article references a 447 Megapack 1,200 GWh Tesla proposal for Moss Tesla Megapack to debut at giant energy project in California - Electrek

*Expecption being a single cell battery

 

[saniflash]

I've ridden a number of stock crashes out and they are not a problem as long as you don't sell on the way to the bottom. If there was a crash, imagine how strong TSLA would power out of it. It would likely be one of the first to recover based on how many people want a piece of it but want a deal.

Thank you. Thank you for this post and similar posts of super experienced investors having gone through a lot. I'm still comparatively new to this game, with less than 3 years being invested in TSLA. Posts like yours help me as noob to manage the fear.

Thanks to all of you.

 

[elasalle]

in my index funds, Past few days, I have been buying the dip a little at a time. Worked the last time around. - always good to keep some $$ in hand for these situations.)
S&P will soon test 200 SMA, and then market will decide what to do next.

SP 900 looks like a weird dream Thinking of closing some Call Options (by tomorrow). Sell Jan 22 Leap positions and reallocate ... cheers!!

 

[KarenRei]

Tl;Dr; hundreds of Tesla batteries is in line with estimates.


Batteries are typically* collections of cells. Tesla Moss will use Megapack batteries. Megapack is up to 3MWh of capacity Introducing Megapack: Utility-Scale Energy Storage

The Tesla portion of Moss is 182.5 MW for 4 hours for 730 MWh, so at least 244 Megapacks are needed storage wise. Inverter capacity is 1.5 MW peg Mega (2 hour discharge) or 122 units, so energy requirements dominate. //www.pge.com/en/about/newsroom/newsdetails/index.page?title=20180629_pge_proposes_four_new_cost-effective_energy_storage_projects_to_cpuc

Vistra's portion is 300 MW for 4 hours or a whopping 1,200MWh (near as doesn't matter to 1.21 Jiggawatt hours).

My question is, will Vistra be using Tesla as a supplier of 400+ Megapacks? As of July, 2028 they had not chosen a battery supplierVistra, Tesla and PG&E seeking world’s first 1 GWh+ batteries

Salt River used unbranded power packs Texas to get its largest battery, coupled with its largest solar power plant, and this article references a 447 Megapack 1,200 GWh Tesla proposal for Moss Tesla Megapack to debut at giant energy project in California - Electrek

*Expecption being a single cell battery

My question is simply... on the known Tesla portion, when would the revenue likely hit the books?

 

[UCF3]

Jokes aside, with all the incredible news we have had in the last couple of days (Y deliveries, Q1 deliveries looking great.....

What evidence is there for deliveries looking “great”? Pictures of some cars in Germany and Taiwan?

 

[Unpilot]

Who is getting in on the pre-market flash sale at 755?

Edit now 751

 

[Artful Dodger]

I would not be surprised to see SP trade in the 740-750 range today. There was a lot of uptick on the 750 2/28 PUTS volume yesterday. MMs will likely take advantage of the general bearish sentiment to sell more PUTS today and probably settle the SP around 750 for options expiry tomorrow.

Yeah, I saw that PUT volume at the $750 strike yesterday, but it hasn't really shifted the overall picture. Here's a detail of the relevant Strikes for tomorrow's Options expiry (Red-PUTS Blue-CALLS)

As you can see, if the SP slips below $800 at the Close on Friday, PUTS start to come into the money. Just at $800 there are 8.45k contracts. That means that for every dollar the SP closes below $800, Options writes have to pay out about $845,000 to the holders of those PUTS. If the SP were to close at $750 as you suggest, that would require payments of $42,250,000 just for the $800 PUTS, but also as you can see above, there's more and more PUTS coming into the money as you go down.

Further, the value of the OTM PUTS (ie: there's 10.08k PUTS open at the $700 Strike) those contracts will be closed for cash before expiry.

IMHO, I think it takes a *sugar* load of news to overcome this buying interest on behalf of the Options writers, who BTW are predominately deep-pocketed MMs. Of course, these are unusual circumstances and there is a full-court press on right now blitzing the CORO FUD, so who knows what the day brings. Trade 'em accordingly.

Guess we'll see where she lands tomorrow, wot?

Cheers!

EDIT: Lol, you didn't have to wait long to see that $750 $742 $738 $735 SP, wot? TSLA now down 3.6x vs NASDAQ-100 Futures (usual multiple is 2x). Clearly, somebody trying to create a pannick. Let'em. My shares are safe.

 

[Fact Checking]

What evidence is there for deliveries looking “great”? Pictures of some cars in Germany and Taiwan?

• Europe: If you order a new Model 3, S or X anywhere in Europe today, the delivery estimates are already out to May - i.e. all incoming inventory on ships has been mostly spoken for in Q1 already.
• China: configurator switched to Q2 delivery back in January already. Tesla was the #1 Chinese EV maker in January both by production (2,625) and by deliveries (3,183 units).
  
• U.S.: delivery time for a new Model 3 is 3-5 weeks. This same metric was 1-2 weeks a year ago.

There's also a lack of price adjustments in the U.S. so far, despite the $1,875 reduction in the federal tax credit in January.

 

[Highway2Heel]

Who is getting in on the pre-market flash sale at 755?

Edit now 751

I managed a small buy at $754....have another one set for $750.....