Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dl003]

I wouldn't worry about the people bailing for GM. No seriously, people like that will bail for just any reason you can think of. Why bother

 

[vikings123]

Ok so I bought another 20 on the "GM dip". I'm still keeping some dry powder.

 

[mejojo]

The way I see it, the Taycan is, what, ~480 Wh/mi? And this would be 500 Wh/mi for the hummer. That's not too shabby for an unaerodynamic vehicle with a body designed for an ICE and is made to support a battery that is 18" thick (forgot where I saw that so no citation).* So, while not impressive, it also looks about right for something GM would (eventually) make.

Also, while they are planning on eventually bringing the cell cost to <$100/kWh I haven't seen any mention of the density. That's going to be one heckuva heavy battery pack which isn't going to help cargo capacity. {ed: assuming they match where Tesla used to be for packs[1] that would be ~2150 pounds just for the battery. Ouch!}

* I'm still trying to wrap my head around that one. Will it have no ground clearance or will you need a ladder to get into it?

1) Tesla Model 3 Battery Cell Has World's Highest Energy Density

Escalator.........

 

[Nocturnal]

Remember that they are selling through their dealer network. The dealers have to sell the cars, GM just has to force the dealers to take them. What will they provide to dealers to make up for not having the service dollars coming in?

I'm very curious to see what happens with dealers in the long term. Obviously their revenue is going to take a huge hit at some point. The dealers know that right? Do they assume that EVs are just a fad and GM is paying lip service?

 

[Driver Dave]

Is TSLA taking a dip because GM showed some clay models?

I hope the market isn't that silly.

 

[Nocturnal]

Is TSLA taking a dip because GM showed some clay models?

I hope the market isn't that silly.

Just takes a few headlines to make people react without thinking or for bots to trade.

 

[EVMeister]

... and imagine were Tesla stands in 2025 Years....

I find it difficult to project that far ahead.

 

[StealthP3D]

"General Motors claims that through its joint venture with LG Chem, announced late last year, will drive their battery costs down to below $100 per kWh."

GM Unveils Battery with Capacity Twice as Big as Tesla’s

200kWh x $100/kWh. Hmmm, GM just admitted their battery would cost around $20,000! This is the true cost of inefficient powertrains.

 

[Stone_Watcher]

Margin calls and their enforcement may have become a factor today, especially for TSLA. Compounding that, the all-day outage at Robinhood on Monday, with another Tuesday morning, may be causing many of its frustrated clients to liquidate and close their accounts. A large number of its clients are millennials, a group that tends to favor investment in TSLA. Those leaving Robinhood will need a little time to reinvest at other brokerages.

Do you think Robinhood really moves that much stock to influence markets? I would think they're peanuts.

 

[oldTAVguy]

Go to the blackboard and write 100 times: Paper losses are not losses.

Say GM announces that their new Tesla-killer (coming in 5 years) will have 900-mile range, $10k price, and Cat and Burp Mode in addition to Dog and Fart. Is a paper car a car?

Say Bill Gates announces he is running for President on the Wrinkly Geek ticket. With his money, he can buy 10 times more TV ads than Michael Bloomberg. Is a paper win a win?

Every TSLA holder owns a piece of the fastest growing, most innovative transportation/energy company on Earth, including factories, design centers, stores, service centers, chargers, a giant fleet of rolling computers preparing for the Transportation Singularity (autonomous driving), a growing fleet of solar roofs and batteries preparing for the Energy Singularity (renewable micro-grids), and a growing global braintrust of phenomenal talent. Did you lose any of those things today?

Look at the blackboard. What does it say.

Don't forget we have an Elon.

 

[hobbes]

So is this sales "slump" of the Model 3 in Europe YTD due simply to Tesla diverting cars to sell elsewhere in the world?

Renault Zoe Shines In Hot Market — Europe EV Sales Report | CleanTechnica

The people who do ship counting (or even: counting the loading days to predict numbers of cars on a ship) say that the ships are on a later schedule, but are expecting a strong uptick next month. Talked to @Troy about this recently, his current prediction taking into account 7 ships going to Europe this Q (Q4 was 8) is 28,000 registrations (Q4 was 35,573), which would be about 80% of Q4. So not great, but not bad either for a quarter that was never expected to set new records.

 

[Fact Checking]

Do you think Robinhood really moves that much stock to influence markets? I would think they're peanuts.

LOTs of options trading by WSBers, it definitely has an effect.

 

[vikings123]

Do you think Robinhood really moves that much stock to influence markets? I would think they're peanuts.

Not directly but I'm pretty sure they can influence the options market which also impacts stocks.

 

[Curt Renz]

Do you think Robinhood really moves that much stock to influence markets? I would think they're peanuts.

Most investors do not trade during a particular day, or even for much longer stretches of time. If a significant number of clients from one brokerage sell on the same day, it can be a meaningful factor, especially if the bots sense the selling and join the party. This may be compounded today by margin calls and the GM "news".

 

[Nocturnal]

200kWh x $100/kWh. Hmmm, GM just admitted their battery would cost around $20,000! This is the true cost of inefficient powertrains.

Then add 50% because we know they won't be able to hit that $100 per kWh number.

 

[humbaba]

200kWh x $100/kWh. Hmmm, GM just admitted their battery would cost around $20,000! This is the true cost of inefficient powertrains.

More than that at the outset as the <$100/kWh is an aspirational goal so probably closer to $30,000 when they start selling them... and that was cell cost so with pack cost that might be $40,000? All to get a 400 mile range in a truck. So aroundish 200 miles when towing. IF it is on time, it will be going up against a cybertruck that costs less with somewhere north of 500 miles of range (and greater carrying capacity thanks to not blowing the weight budget on a monster battery).

edit: I still think GM **** their pants at the cybertruck unveil. The Hummer EV would have been well along in planning and their specs just don't cut it against the cybertruck.

 

[Nocturnal]

Most investors do not trade during a particular day, or even for much longer stretches of time. If a significant number from one firm sell on the same day, it can be a meaningful factor, especially if the bots sense the selling and join the party. This may be compounded today by margin calls and the GM "news".

I did close out some stock positions that I was ambivalent on so that I could start moving cash. Not Tesla of course, for now.

 

[Fobble]

Wait till you link accounts and find that your information (such as phone number) doesn't carry over, so you have to login and fill in all the information number-of-account times to actually do anything with them--except you can't log in to more than one account at a time. No, you can't do it from the account you linked to, except for it's own items, it's look but don't touch.

I do not see such issue on my end. I am using PC, not mobile. I have 5 accounts with TD, all linked together, and switched back and forth without being asked for password every time.

 

[StealthP3D]

Anyone catch when GM plans to have their "massive" battery factory online? Even if you assume their smallest 50KWh packs for all vehicles, those 30 GWh are only going to be enough for 600,000 vehicles.

And if it's 50/50 split between 50 kWh cars and 200 kWh trucks, that's less than 250,000 vehicles/year in total once their 30GWh's are online at full production.

Tesla made more vehicles than that over 2 years ago and will make twice that many this year.

 

[Buckminster]

The thing is...most people on this forum are way more informed as to battery availability/cost and EV production difficulties than the average analyst or business writer. To us...its hilarious that mary barra went on stage in a leather jacket, and rolled out loads of dudes with grey hair doing scripted speeches about enthusiasm for EVs.... but the mainstream media may not see it that way.

I think this WILL drive a narrative that GM are coming to beat Tesla. Announcing better range and faster charging...thats the headline. We know they need a much bigger pack, and that the cost will therefore be silly, and that they cant get the batteries anyway... but that does not change the headline.

TBH GM could have made this much worse. They did a relatively good job with what they had. The timescales mean they are totally F**KED, but it probably doesnt look like that to the average news reader.

Great post.

The main audience must be their shareholders. They can't possibly think that this news will slow Tesla sales. Maybe they are shorting leather jacket manufacturers.