jhm
Well-Known Member
In my mind, six months in this range is pretty short. C.f., 2 to 3 years in the last two cycles.I like your overall analysis but I think you are making a mistake to assume TSLA needs to stay in any "range" for 6 months. The 4-5 years between $200-$400 was a trading range that stuck around because TSLA had no profits and revenues were relatively small. We are in a new era of TSLA where we can watch incremental improvements of gross margins, revenues, etc. There is big growth ahead and the market will struggle to value it.
As long as the overall market doesn't turn into a bear market, I think we will continue to see price appreciation through 2020. And I'm not talking about a low volatility, smooth walk up to your high-end price target of $1070. A stock like this will likely over-shoot that and come back down for a spell until there are enough new catalysts to propel it higher. Instead of a trading range, I expect to see big zigs (mostly progressively higher) followed by big zags down (also mostly progressively higher). This will probably not form a horizontal channel or trading range like we saw in the previous several years. And it won't be even or smooth or easy to trade as in past years.
Whether trading range is the best term to describe my expectations, let me put it this way: I think it will be another 6 months before we two days close above $970. This leaves Sept-Dec for prices to rise above $1000 if indeed they are to rise by end of year.
I'd also point out that this is an election year. So the whole market could be inhibited until the US elects the next president.