Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

TESLA recently opened up solar roof orders across the US. There’s something odd with their order page: Order your Solar Roof

You’re asked for the square footage of your house, # of stories, & avg electric bill. The page then tells you the size of the system you need and it’s cost and you 25 year “expected savings” based on total KWh produced x avg cost/KWh of power

I get different answers depending on which state I choose - using the same house parameters:

2700 square feet, 2 story, $150/month

California 6.2 kw. $27,000
Maine. 7.7 kw. $31,000
Alaska. 8.1 kw. $32,000
Texas. 10.2 kw $36,000
Florida. 10.2. $36,000

This doesn’t make any sense, obviously. And there is no “contact us” info on the page to ask about this or other quirks. The FAQ is scant.

But there is a link for a $100 non-refundable order fee.

Maybe Tesla has a good product here. Maybe it can even save you a few bucks over a couple of decades. But their marketing and customer engagement here is a weak effort.

They streamline very quickly, I saw this myself throughout our solar install. Its all about efficiency. The moment they document a process, it changes. So they dont IMO.
Recommend doing your homework, know what you want, run the solar calculations eith your roof. Big learning curve. Read what others did on the solar forum. Their sales force will fill in details.... if there is one anymore. Then ask youself, did you get better service buying a cell phone?

And, this seems OT...

 

[gerebgraus]

Inside Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week—and settle Mars
" “The problem with the MK1 stuff was that I didn’t have my eye fully on the ball, because I was still taking care of a lot of Tesla stuff,” Musk said. “Now Tesla, I think, is in a good situation here, so that’s why I’m pretty much camped out in Boca. "
we had a lot of news about Musk sleeping at the factory floor during the ramp-up of production hell of Model 3.
For Giga Shanghai we had Musk celebrating the start of construction and then the start of deliveries. Nothing between about Musk working in Shanghai. The "chair" gave credit of the great work of Jerome and team to build the production. For Model Y we again have no news Musk spending his nights to fix production hell there. The news for now is that deliveries in substantial numbers start much earlier than promised.

Is it possible that Tesla's progress to figure out how to make the machine that makes the machines already at a higher level than legacy car makers?
Is it possible that Musk completely trusts Jerome Guillen to run production the same way that he trusts Zachary with finance and Franz with design?

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Tesla : we have a car that can do almost 400 miles on about $10K worth of batteries
GM : oh yah? well we'll have a car in 5 years that can do 400 miles on about $20K worth of batteries

 

[dl003]

As long as Tesla avoids self inflicted mistakes then they will be fine even if this year is a recession type year. The $8 billion in cash they are sitting on is a huge. The other automakers are hurting quite a bit right now.

There might be some buying opportunities along the way! However, I’m feeling good! So far Tesla is persevering through the virus scare and the election this year does not put Tesla in a make or break right or left.

Me too. At the risk of getting called burying my head in the sand because I choose to remain calm as opposed to panicking, I fully believe Tesla will come out of this smelling like a rose. Just saying if I was a spiteful CFO which Zach doesn't seem to be, I'd try and secure SP inclusion after Q1. It'd put Tesla in a so much stronger position. The positive press alone would echo for months and dare I say help with demands throughout Q2.

 

[Fobble]

TSLAQ is at about 12.5% in mid Feb. This is a huge drop from >40% in 2018/early 2019.

Short Interest(% of float 02/15/20) 12.60

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

According to this Tweeter, who analyzes BEVs in China, Tesla's GF3 production in February was 2365 cars each with an average of 52.3 kWh of Panasonic batteries - and 1559 cars each with an average of 51.8 kWh of LG Chem batteries:
Moneyball on Twitter

Since GF3 reopened only on February 10, that's an average weekly production of 1308 cars.

That average figure sounds around what would be expected given they were starting the second shift after Chinese New Year. I estimated 1500/week for the final 6 weeks of Q1.

The info regarding the Panasonic/LG mix is also very interesting. Seems like there is some way to go before batteries and packs are all MIC. If Shanghai is using 700 packs per week from GF1 that could impact how quickly Model Y can be ramped.

As is becoming increasingly clear for all manufacturers, ramping battery/pack supply is difficult. It's a good job Battery Day is coming

 

[woodisgood]

TSLAQ is at about 12.5% in mid Feb. This is a huge drop from >40% in 2018/early 2019.

Short Interest(% of float 02/15/20) 12.60

Undoubtedly short interest will have jumped in the last few weeks since bears and shorts are partying all across the market. However, I'd expect these to be much weaker shorts who will cover rather quickly.

 

[Fobble]

Undoubtedly short interest will have jumped in the last few weeks since bears and shorts are partying all across the market. However, I'd expect these to be much weaker shorts and will cover rather quickly.

Agreed that the recent shorts are mostly taking advantage of the market situation and temporary. They are not hard-core shorts as were in the past.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Has anyone one with the older MCU1 HW 2/2.5 suite bought the $2,500 MCU2 HW3.0 package?
I am thinking about buying.

When I ride in my brothers M3 the screen is so much smoother and his browser actually works.

There is no such "package". The $2,500 gets you MCU2. HW3 is only for those who bought FSD. If you don't have FSD but want to buy it, that's additional $.

For those who have FSD and MCU1 and don't want the MCU2 upgrade, they'll get HW3 eventually. If they buy the MCU2 upgrade, the claim is that they'll get it sooner. The HW3 for FSD purchasers is free either way.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Energy related jobs have started to be posted in China:
New Jobs At Tesla Giga Shanghai Shine Light On Solar & Energy Storage Expansion | CleanTechnica

 

[avoigt]

Imagine .... If other auto manufacturers are not pulling their acts together, I can imagine 50-60% of all vehicles on the road in 10 years are Teslas (in developed countries at least). With limited Tesla model variation and color palette, it will be a boring word

I am okay with boring in that respect!

 

[Prunesquallor]

Imagine .... If other auto manufacturers are not pulling their acts together, I can imagine 50-60% of all vehicles on the road in 10 years are Teslas (in developed countries at least). With limited Tesla model variation and color palette, it will be a boring word

I shall attempt to alleviate the tedium with my Cybertruck and Roadster

 

[sparcs]

Looking at TMC forums, there seems to be another wave of Model Y orders getting prepared for delivery. Also some folks with White Interiors moved to this step.

I still think we are in the range of 2000 Model Y deliveries for Q1, but it's a good sign that things are progressing steadily. We should have a better idea once deliveries actually start.

 

[StealthP3D]

Imagine .... If other auto manufacturers are not pulling their acts together, I can imagine 50-60% of all vehicles on the road in 10 years are Teslas (in developed countries at least). With limited Tesla model variation and color palette, it will be a boring word

Better a boring world than a stinky, toxic world.

But if you think Tesla isn't going to be meeting market preferences for body color variation by 2030, you haven't been paying attention to how Tesla operates.

By then Tesla cars/trucks will probably be able to change color on the fly by applying a small electrical charge to the body (but you will have to pay extra for the chameleon option).

 

[Tachyon]

Better a boring world than a stinky, toxic world.

But if you think Tesla isn't going to be meeting market preferences for body color variation by 2030, you haven't been paying attention to how Tesla operates.

By then Tesla cars/trucks will probably be able to change color on the fly by applying a small electrical charge to the body (but you will have to pay extra for the chameleon option).

Chameleon Option brought to you via OTA update.
How cool is that!

 

[StealthP3D]

Energy related jobs have started to be posted in China:
New Jobs At Tesla Giga Shanghai Shine Light On Solar & Energy Storage Expansion | CleanTechnica

Tesla's energy production and storage business won't be a very big market in China, will it? /s

 

[Tachyon]

Chameleon Option will also simplify production line without the burden of multiple paint colors .
The only option left on the table would be the size of the battery
WOW!

 

[X Fan]

Looking at TMC forums, there seems to be another wave of Model Y orders getting prepared for delivery. Also some folks with White Interiors moved to this step.

I still think we are in the range of 2000 Model Y deliveries for Q1, but it's a good sign that things are progressing steadily. We should have a better idea once deliveries actually start.

Can’t wait to get the call for my wife’s Y.

She was rear ended at a stoplight a few weeks back and her Macan had $17k of damage plus $3K due Porsche for “programming”. Lol @ the cost of fixing the Porsche Macan.

 

[bpjod]

My MCU1 AP2 Model X (FSD purchased) does not provide me with the option to purchase the MCU2 upgrade yet. I'm seriously considering the upgrade for the following reasons, in order of importance from highest to lowest:

1. Sentry mode
2. Caraoke (kids will love it)
3. Much smoother UI experience
4. Video stream
5. Better Games
6. Some futureproofing (MCU2 has 5.0Ghz Wifi compatibility)
7. Enhanced FSD visuals

That seems like a lot of value for the price to me. But then I consider how much $2500 can be worth if I put it into TSLA instead and that leaves me undecided haha.

Had a Model S90 loaner yesterday while my 3LR RWD was in for service. If I had to put up with that slow screen I’d forgo the 4 extra shares and just upgrade the MCU. YOLO.

On second thought, given how happy I was to drop off the S90 and get back my 3, I’d trade the S in for a 3/Y.

While there, it was very apparent to me how much happier the staff was relative to any car dealership I’ve ever been to. The service bay was hopping. Two trucks were unloading cars (no Model Ys, I checked!). The staff were buzzing about the 7 more trucks coming early next week. The delivery bays were full and people were waiting for their turns while others were in the parking lot figuring out their new toys. I’ve never been to such a vibrant, upbeat, hopping “dealership”/service centre. From this, I can begin to get an appreciation of what kind of experience those of you who have participated in end-of-quarter deliveries have experienced. Traditional auto is so screwed.

 

[wipster]

Can’t wait to get the call for my wife’s Y.

She was rear ended at a stoplight a few weeks back and her Macan had $17k of damage plus $3K due Porsche for “programming”. Lol @ the cost of fixing the Porsche Macan. View attachment 519124

$17K for that? That's almost a total! /s