Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[X Fan]

$17K for that? That's almost a total! /s

Sad, but true.

Also, Porsche dealer at pickup this morning said that since damaged they wouldn’t outright buy it (it was fixed and looking good but didn’t want the inventory of a Macan in an accident) but would offer $25k in a trade (geez). We took it to Carmax and got $31k but still not ideal.

Btw: I asked them about where their charging station was for the Taycan. He said the unit is back ordered so for now they’re referring people to a local Walmart that has a level 2 charging unit.

Lol at Naples Porsche owners being asked to go to Walmart. Not that crowd.

 

[wipster]

Sad, but true.

Also, Porsche dealer at pickup this morning said that since damaged they wouldn’t outright buy it but would offer $25k in a trade (geez). We took it to Carmax and got $31k but still not ideal.

Btw: I asked them about where their charging station was for the Taycan. He said the unit is back ordered so for now they’re referring people to a local Walmart that has a level 2 charging unit.

Lol at Naples Porsche owners being asked to go to Walmart. Not that crowd.

Damn, I feel your pain but thank goodness not in the pocketbook. That is ridiculous, but unfortunately not easily solved. Your Y is hopefully on the way and you'll get the notice soon.

Fingers crossed mate, it will get better!

 

[Fact Checking]

According to this Tweeter, who analyzes BEVs in China, Tesla's GF3 production in February was 2365 cars each with an average of 52.3 kWh of Panasonic batteries - and 1559 cars each with an average of 51.8 kWh of LG Chem batteries:
Moneyball on Twitter

Since GF3 reopened only on February 10, that's an average weekly production of 1308 cars.

This other Twitter source claims a similar February total production of 3,988 units, which is a fantastic rate:

JPR007 on Twitter

"February 2020 Production = 3,988 units

- this result is ahead of expectations for a month that only started on 10 February and had 15 M-F working days

- the outcome suggests that the second shift is now LIVE"​

3,988 cars made in 15 working days is a sustained production rate of 1,329/week, 69,000/year.

If we extrapolate the same rate to 4 weeks in March then that's another 5,300 units, making the Q1 GF3 production:

• January: 2,600
• February: 4,000
• March: 5,300
• Q1 GF3: 11,900

But more is possible too, because the second shift likely didn't get to full speed immediately. If the second shift reached full speed by the end of February linearly, then March performance will be 25% higher, 6,600 units, with a Q1 total of 13,200 units.

If Fremont can keep up then Q1 estimates will have to be adjusted upwards.

​

 

[Opus BC fan]

Random data point.
I drove past the Tesla service and delivery center this morning. There were clearly Ys being delivered.

 

[Fact Checking]

Random data point.
I drove past the Tesla service and delivery center this morning. There were clearly Ys being delivered.

Being prepped for delivery, or being given to owners?

 

[Unpilot]

If Fremont can keep up then Q1 estimates will have to be adjusted upwards.

To 81,001?

 

[KarenRei]

"February 2020 Production = 3,988 units

- this result is ahead of expectations for a month that only started on 10 February and had 15 M-F working days

- the outcome suggests that the second shift is now LIVE"​

3,988 cars made in 15 working days is a sustained production rate of 1,329/week, 69,000/year.

Also, there should be scaleup from February to March. February was basically the worst possible circumstances, and some scaleup would be expected regardless.

 

[KarenRei]

To 81,001?

Stop setting expectations too high

 

[Fact Checking]

View attachment 519154



Also, there should be scaleup from February to March. February was basically the worst possible circumstances, and some scaleup would be expected regardless.

GF3 has 5 day work-weeks, so the calculation is 3,988/15×5 = 1,329 units per work-week.

I agree wrt. scale up, and have posted it in my edited comment about the time you replied.

 

[KarenRei]

GF3 has 5 day work-weeks, so the calculation is 3,988/15×5 = 1,329 units per work-week.

I agree wrt. scale up, and have posted it in my edited comment about the time you replied.

Also, don't forget to add to China numbers two RO-ROs Probably ballpark 5k vehicles.

 

[winfield100]

Chameleon Option brought to you via OTA update.
How cool is that!

@tachyon
When can we get a wrap for our Tesla that’s a chromatophore like the critters have?

 

[Opus BC fan]

Being prepped for delivery, or being given to owners?

In the delivery spots for owners.

 

[mmd]

That average figure sounds around what would be expected given they were starting the second shift after Chinese New Year. I estimated 1500/week for the final 6 weeks of Q1.

The info regarding the Panasonic/LG mix is also very interesting. Seems like there is some way to go before batteries and packs are all MIC. If Shanghai is using 700 packs per week from GF1 that could impact how quickly Model Y can be ramped.

Demand for Model y is probably a bigger factor than battery supply that will keep its ramp low. If Tesla expected huge Model Y volumes, would it have just repurposed a tent/line in the Fremont factory to produce it?
There is a reason Panasonic refused to invest more in the Nevada GF.

As is becoming increasingly clear for all manufacturers, ramping battery/pack supply is difficult. It's a good job Battery Day is coming

Then how did Peugeot come from nowhere and became the fifth-largest global EV seller in January? Other manufacturers are doing what Tesla is also doing: buying from battery manufacturers and letting them do the scaling.
EV Sales: Global Top 20 January 2020

 

[kcveins]

PSA seems to be moving in that direction too:
PSA Group And Saft Announce Two EV Battery Gigafactories

Very slow buildup....

• the €200 million pilot plant to be launched in mid-2021 at Saft’s Nersac facility
  "The first phase of the project focuses on R&D, including building a pilot plant on the land of Saft’s Nersac facility. The plant is scheduled to start up in mid-2021 and represents an investment of 200 million euros. The project will generate around 200 high-skilled jobs in France’s Nouvelle-Aquitaine region to develop, qualify and commercially scale up new, high-performance lithium-ion batteries."
• 8 GWh gigafactory to be built in the northern Hauts-de-France region in France starting in 2023 (then expanded to 16 GWh and to 24 GWh)
• 8 GWh gigafactory to be built in Rhineland-Palatinate state in Germany (then expanded to 16 GWh and to 24 GWh)
• the total output to be 48 GWh by 2030 (2x 24 GWh)
  "This first phase will trigger the investment decision for a large-scale production plant (8 GWh initially, rising to 24 GWh later on) in the northern Hauts-de-France region, followed by a second one of equal capacity in Germany, in order to reach 48 GWh of combined capacity by 2030."

 

[Eugene Ash]

Demand for Model y is probably a bigger factor than battery supply that will keep its ramp low. If Tesla expected huge Model Y volumes, would it have just repurposed a tent/line in the Fremont factory to produce it?
There is a reason Panasonic refused to invest more in the Nevada GF.


Then how did Peugeot came from nowhere and became the fifth global EV seller in January? Other manufacturers are doing what Tesla is also doing: buying from battery manufacturers and letting them do the scaling.

Peugeot had a slow start with a rebadged Mitsubishi, but now they have an electric small car: 208. Sort of a fiat 500, but with 5 doors. Cheap and cheerful. Peugeot has a long history of small scale ev manufacturing, so they have knowledge of controllers, motors. They have used SAFT ni-mh batteries in the decades prior, for fleet for french electric utilities. Also France has Bolore company which does its own li-ion batteries. So they are capturing market from the bottom. Hope they are not loosing money on that...

 

[Fact Checking]

Demand for Model y is probably a bigger factor than battery supply that will keep its ramp low. If Tesla expected huge Model Y volumes, would it have just repurposed a tent/line in the Fremont factory to produce it?

Because likely the Model 3 GA lines are dual purpose, they can make the Model 3 and the Model Y

The Sprung tent is primarily for the AWD and Performance trims, like for the Model 3.

There is a reason Panasonic refused to invest more in the Nevada GF.

LOL, it was Tesla who refused to expand the factory before the existing lines are optimized.

Then how did Peugeot come from nowhere and became the fifth-largest global EV seller in January? Other manufacturers are doing what Tesla is also doing: buying from battery manufacturers and letting them do the scaling.
EV Sales: Global Top 20 January 2020

Peugeot isn't selling in the same market as Tesla, they escaped to smaller form factors - cannibalizing ICE sales.

There's no OEM competitive with Tesla's models right now, and none are in sight.

 

[Prunesquallor]

@tachyon
When can we get a wrap for our Tesla that’s a chromatophore like the critters have?

While diving, I have seen octopi and flounders do that. Absolutely incredible.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Motley Fool says buy and hold forever. Amazingly considering Tesla to be an energy company, so that's a start.

11 Reasons to Buy Tesla and Never Sell | The Motley Fool

 

[sparcs]

LOL, it was Tesla who refused to expand the factory before the existing lines are optimized.

Even Panasonic put it out in the media last year that they had the technical resources to expand beyond their current deal in Nevada, but no sign so far that Tesla has taken them up on it.

 

[SMAlset]

Tesla : we have a car that can do almost 400 miles on about $10K worth of batteries
GM : oh yah? well we'll have a car in 5 years that can do 400 miles on about $20K worth of batteries

Here's the USAToday story (with video) from Saturday on their lead battery guy, Bob Taenaka who hails from Hughes Space & Communications in Calif. and worked on batteries for NASA and the US Air Force. He's been at Ford for about 20 years now.

Ford's secret weapon, top battery guy Bob Taenaka came from NASA