Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
A certain genius you may have heard of predicts the US infection curve will be similar to China's:
Elon Musk @elonmusk
Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April
.

That same genius is well known for being terrible at predicting timelines, as he has admitted.
 
Tesla will be less than $100 by summer. The obvious move is to liquidate now and buy back when things look better.

China is back at work, Europe is seeing a moderation in cases; I think you need to zoom out and take a look at the bigger picture. The US is about to go through two tough weeks (possibly more), but the world is not ending.

I have limit orders in now to take advantage of the current opportunity. I view this as a seldom seen chance to get shares at a low cost relative to future value.

If my orders are triggered I will reach my goal of 2k+ shares. A couple months ago I was lamenting the fact that I did not get more when prices were in the 2 and 3 hundreds.

It is fascinating how different people view situations. I wish all the best.

Lastly, bring back @KarenRei and @Fact Checking!
 
Last edited:
China is back at work, Europe is seeing a moderation in cases; I think you need to zoom out and take a look at the bigger picture. The US is about to go through two tough weeks, but the world is not ending.

I have limit orders in now to take advantage of the current opportunity. I view this as a seldom seen opportunity to get shares at a low cost relative to future value.

If my orders are triggered I will reach my goal of 2k+ shares.

Agree.

Lets look at the bigger picture to understand the implications for investors into Tesla.

China has now 5th day in the row 0 domestic cases, Europe does see a first sign early of positive development in some countries where the peak new infection rates look like to be past now. Too early to call it a victory but promising and we need to see if the data of the next days confirms it. The US is still in the ramp up phase and there are certainly many more new cases to come.

If Asia gets back on its feed with production running again and Europe may see a recovery coming it will be IMO only a question of time until the same will happen in the US. I am quite confident about the measures in California which should be for us investors extra important given Fremont and with Nevada I am not overly concerned because of its remote location.

If measures in California work we could expect production to start rather early compared to other states in the US.

Deliveries are ongoing in the US and Europe right now. I just got confirmation about first deliveries here in Germany this Monday morning.

It will take a longer time until people realize that if they want to understand the development the need to look a new daily cases. If they just watch total or active cases you look into the past but you don't get a glimpse about the future. As active cases will increase since new cases are added although less than yesterday people may believe it gets worse not realizing this are positive signs for the future it to get better.

Badly informed investors may therefore sell because they don't understand what is happening. Smart investors will buy because they see the early signs. So, it all about being well informed and understand the big picture.

I expect quite some overreaction in the US at first and an even better buy opportunity for the smart ones.
 
It will take a longer time until people realize that if they want to understand the development the need to look a new daily cases. If they just watch total or active cases you look into the past but you don't get a glimpse about the future. As active cases will increase since new cases are added although less than yesterday people may believe it gets worse not realizing this are positive signs for the future it to get better.

Badly informed investors may therefore sell because they don't understand what is happening. Smart investors will buy because they see the early signs. So, it all about being well informed and understand the big picture.

I expect quite some overreaction in the US at first and an even better buy opportunity for the smart ones.

Yes, I would be watching the European countries daily case count for confirmation of a decline. If this thesis is correct then one could try to extrapolate to the rest of the world to determine when the market bottom *should* form.

Knowing the above and seeing that the US is behind the rest of the world may offer a solid buying opportunity.
 
China is back at work, Europe is seeing a moderation in cases; I think you need to zoom out and take a look at the bigger picture. The US is about to go through two tough weeks (possibly more), but the world is not ending.

I have limit orders in now to take advantage of the current opportunity. I view this as a seldom seen chance to get shares at a low cost relative to future value.

If my orders are triggered I will reach my goal of 2k+ shares. A couple months ago I was lamenting the fact that I did not get more when prices were in the 2 and 3 hundreds.

It is fascinating how different people view situations. I wish all the best.

Lastly, bring back @KarenRei and @Fact Checking!

China is back at 75% which is considered a depression. Also they are still mostly wearing masks and distancing, as soon as they stop that second wave happens. Way to early to comment on Europe, numbers are increasing, most countries are just entering full lockdown for months. US is just getting started and political dead lock will cost millions of lives.
 
Yes, I would be watching the European countries daily case count for confirmation of a decline. If this thesis is correct then one could try to extrapolate to the rest of the world to determine when the market bottom *should* form.

Knowing the above and seeing that the US is behind the rest of the world may offer a solid buying opportunity.

Exactly. Most won't comprehend though or if they do dare to buy against their emotions I believe but as always in life the smart ones will make the profits. :D

In a few days we should be able to understand and validate if the weekend in Europe was just a strange outlier in parallel of many countries which would be very strange or if it's validated. Right now I believe we will see a mixed bag with some countries going down and others still up. The reason is simple, not all EU countries did put harsh and strickt measures in place.
 

You always have cases where some people demand a test but hospitals decline it and this is happening in Germany as well.

Its unrealistic to assume numbers are not correct based on one 70 year old in that article claiming its different and she wants a test but it has been rejected. Also, Wuhan has opened public transportation again for passengers and after all what they have been going through they will not risk a second wave.

We see this also with the extremely strict but very effective measures with traveller to china who are screened and partly put into quarantine.

Despite that its definitely true that China tried to play the pandemic and numbers down at the early days (like the US) there where they paid a very high price for it and they have literally zero reason to repeat that.

Let's really stop with that speculation about wrong numbers from China. There is just no reasonable basis for it.
 
Hmm how to get @Fact Checking and @KarenRei back...

Hey remember near the end of 2018 I was very concerned about a demand drop because of the halving of U. S. tax credit.

They disagreed with me that there was any demand problem. I was right and they were wrong! Thus the price drops in Q1 2019.

Now I am worried about demand dropping over the next few quarters for the obvious recession reasons.

To bad they aren't here to provide any weak retorts...


Demand for Tesla vehicles as a whole didn’t drop. But the shorts sure twisted it that way. And it worked for about 7 months. Idiot week longs but good buying opportunities. Just wish I had bought more. Was actually due to shipping and logistics issues to China. S/X sales did drop due to Tesla discontinuing their most popular 75D variant. But those people probably ended up buying a 3.
 
Yes, I would be watching the European countries daily case count for confirmation of a decline. If this thesis is correct then one could try to extrapolate to the rest of the world to determine when the market bottom *should* form.

Knowing the above and seeing that the US is behind the rest of the world may offer a solid buying opportunity.

The number of cases might drop. The question you should ask is why? Most of Europe has already been in some form for a lockdown in the past weeks. If they ease up on the restrictions now, it's fair to assume that the numbers will increase once more. So relying on the numbers dropping alone won't be a good indicator.

Here in Norway, it looks like they plan for some kind of shut down until at least May. It will keep the numbers low, but the economic impacts will be huge.

To me, the big question is how the outbreak will be handled. Will countries continue to close down? If so, for how long? At the moment it seems likely that we might get a long term partial close down. This worries me and is why I sold all my shares. Won't be surprised if we see price in the 2XX over the next weeks.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ellec and Knightowl
Am I the only one here who thinks tomorrow will end up being a Green Day for Tesla?

I was laughed at. Now I’m laughing.
 

Attachments

  • 2BE7B12B-A739-490D-8111-92F885786127.jpeg
    2BE7B12B-A739-490D-8111-92F885786127.jpeg
    15.2 KB · Views: 71