Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[printf42]

Tesla's apple/iphone moment will come with the next paradigm shift- it might be energy storage and microgrids and/or FSD. Arrival of cars with 500+ range will ensure a continued rise, and pull in buyers who were hesitant before. Those new buyers might not get the top of the line range model. So for the short term tesla needs GF(n) and for near long term a paradigm shift-- which is all ready coming.

No, Tesla’s iPhone moment already happened, it’s Model 3/Y, by itself it’s going to make Tesla a trillion dollars company, it just take time for market to realize how big a deal it is.
CyberTruck, FSD, energy etc are the stuff to make it into 10T.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I cant see the stock going lower at Q1 earnings. Q1 production was VERY VERY good. I dont think anybody is expecting Q1 earnings to be bad news. It will give us clarity on what the emissions trading payments look like (the Fiat thing), and it might shed some light on when tsla will recognize a bigger chunk of FSD revenue, but frankly if I was thinking of buying more stock in the next 6 months, I'd buy it tomorrow.

Thats also because looking at some european covid19 numbers i giving me some hope that a number of countries have maybe plateaued and heading towards a recovery. the us got the virus lat,e so it will be late to recognize a recovery. Keep an eye on China and Europe.

 

[Paracelsus]

OT
I think the Canadian oil sands get picked on way too much. Would you rather get oil from countries that have no environmental regulations, no human rights, and where only corrupt governments profit. Yes it does take a bit more CO2 to extract the oil from oil sands because of the SAGD process but it’s really not that much more than other extraction techniques especially when you have to ship that oil. Steam is used in many other parts of the world to extract oil but you never hear people protesting about that. Oil companies in Canada are continuing working on extracting the oil in a more sustainable manner. Also if this pipeline is not built then it hurts the Canadian people because we will not get a fair price for are oil. Right now western Canadian select is under 10. Not having enough pipeline capacity is destroying our economy. Plus if these pipelines don’t get built then there will be more shipping oil by rail which is worse for the environment. It’s probably a better idea to pick the lesser of two evils cause this oil is going to be produced anyways.

I usually don't disagree with @StealthP3D, but to the point of whether or not this is the right forum for a Tar Sands high-level discussion, @Rammstein might be discussing a concept that encouraged many people to invest in TSLA to begin with

 

[Artful Dodger]

Ok I need some not an advice. The UK tax year starts tomorrow. Which means I get another tranche of tax free savings to invest entirely in TSLA . The first tranche was September 2018 because that's when I got round to opening up an account and dealing with the necessary declaration for investing in dollar stocks. That was OK, under $300 all good. When April came around the stock was back down under $300 and obviously I thought I'd have some more of that. So obviously I missed the dip just a few weeks later and I don't really want to do that again. I don't have alot of time to do any research I'm not trading just accumulating for retirement. The question is am I going to get a better price say around quarter 2 results or is this really the last chance in the next few months for a relatively low price? I wasn't really expecting to get another chance at these levels so I'll probably just do it this week. Good luck to the longs and thanks for all the not advice to date

Lol, you want 'not an advice'? Okay, this chart is screaming to test support at the 200-day MA ($387). Then if that breaks next support is the Lower-BB (currently around $358).

Macros will provide all the excuses News that shortzes require. Timing? Well it's likely 14-19 trading days until the 2020Q1 Earnings Call, and TSLA has make these kinds of $100+ moves every week since the beginning of February. I'm guessing we get 1-2 more swings before Earnings. Then if Fremont isn't back up before then, and guidance is foggy on timing for a restart, it'll be 'well-howdy'. Won Ate Tee will be last Que Too stupport. GLTA.

Personally, I've got a hundred Gs sitting on the sidelines, which I'll deploy in tranches. I'm in no particular hurry, as my DCA is way below this level, and my investment timetable is solidly on track.

No stress here, it helps to have 8+ yrs to compound. Just scooping up those gifted shares is all...

Cheers to the Longs!

P.S. the far-left edge of this 10-mth chart is Won Ate Tee. Notice how intra-day volitility has expanded since Jan 31, 2020:

 

[Rammstein]

I usually don't disagree with @StealthP3D, but to the point of whether or not this is the right forum for a Tar Sands high-level discussion, @Rammstein might be discussing a concept that encouraged many people to invest in TSLA to begin with

View attachment 529545

View attachment 529546

OT
I’m not sure where to take this either. I was just replying to that other persons post. I think extraction of the oil sands is about 20% mining and 80% SAGD. So showing the pictures of the mining part doesn’t really give a clear picture on how most this oil is extracted. I am more for banning the mining side of the extraction process considering what it does do to the land. Although it least in Canada oil companies have to pay to reclaim the land after it is done. In many other countries the environmental regulations are not nearly as stringent or don’t exist at all.

To make this Tesla related. I’m an oil and gas engineer and first heard of Tesla in 2014. Started studying the company with a bias against electric cars. Realized Tesla solved every question I had. So I invested in Tesla from that point on cause it was a hedge against my job. Got laid off cause of the price discrepancy that Canada gets for its oil. Thank god TSLA has treated me well.

 

[TNEVol]

Try the shorting oil thread which is actually all about oil. @jhm can provide better info but I suspect the cost of the pipeline and extraction will likely exceed the price in an oil decline future. It may very well remain in the ground, think coal.

 

[Artful Dodger]

OT
I’m not sure where to take this either. I was just replying to that other persons post. I think extraction of the oil sands is about 20% mining and 80% SAGD. So showing the pictures of the mining part doesn’t really give a clear picture on how most this oil is extracted. I am more for banning the mining side of the extraction process considering what it does do to the land. Although it least in Canada oil companies have to pay to reclaim the land after it is done. In many other countries the environmental regulations are not nearly as stringent or don’t exist at all.

Hint: you are getting a large number of disagrees because technical discussion of this subject is 'off-topic' for this forum. Probably best to stop now. Thank-you.

 

[gerebgraus]

It will be ppl taking advantage of the situation for sure. But, such government programs such as CARES and PPP will end sooner or later, and everyone will go back to their old work or get a new work whether they want or not.

All kinds of people, small business, big business will take advantage of stimulus whether they need it or not. You can be absolutely certain that Tesla will take all the benefits as it can legally including gaming the system.

 

[Bet TSLA]

All kinds of people, small business, big business will take advantage of stimulus whether they need it or not. You can be absolutely certain that Tesla will take all the benefits as it can legally including gaming the system.

Yes, this is obvious from the way Tesla is brazenly profiteering by giving away ventilators and other healthcare items./s

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Please forgive me if this has been covered in this thread. I haven't been keeping up with it much lately.

Anyway, I've read several people say Tesla will have a strong 2nd quarter. But, I really don't see how if 3/4th of their factories are shut down. And unless I'm misunderstanding something, Fremont will be until at least may 3rd.

How will Tesla have a strong quarter if they're only producing cars in China, at about 3000 per week?

 

[Fobble]

No, Tesla’s iPhone moment already happened, it’s Model 3/Y, by itself it’s going to make Tesla a trillion dollars company, it just take time for market to realize how big a deal it is.
CyberTruck, FSD, energy etc are the stuff to make it into 10T.

True for EV market share standpoint, Tesla is dominating for a foreseeable future, especially with the covid-19 outbreak which technically cripples competitions' efforts to ramp up R&D. However, Apple's business is highly profitable.It's gross margin is around 38%, where Tesla's is around 20%.

 

[jerry33]

True for EV market share standpoint, Tesla is dominating for a foreseeable future, especially with the covid-19 outbreak which technically cripples competitions' efforts to ramp up R&D. However, Apple's business is highly profitable.It's gross margin is around 38%, where Tesla's is around 20%.

And the other auto manufacturers are what? 5%, 6%.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Please forgive me if this has been covered in this thread. I haven't been keeping up with it much lately.

Anyway, I've read several people say Tesla will have a strong 2nd quarter. But, I really don't see how if 3/4th of their factories are shut down. And unless I'm misunderstanding something, Fremont will be until at least may 3rd.

How will Tesla have a strong quarter if they're only producing cars in China, at about 3000 per week?

Curious about the May 3rd date. Has this been discussed or mentioned by Tesla or officials?

 

[larmor]

fa

No, Tesla’s iPhone moment already happened, it’s Model 3/Y, by itself it’s going to make Tesla a trillion dollars company, it just take time for market to realize how big a deal it is.
CyberTruck, FSD, energy etc are the stuff to make it into 10T.

i would nuance that if Tesla can automate GF production aka the alien dreadnaight then model 3/y heralds the paradigm moment

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Curious about the May 3rd date. Has this been discussed or mentioned by Tesla or officials?

Actually, it's May 1st. Not sure where I got the 3rd from.

Bay Area coronavirus: How life has changed with shelter-in-place order

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Actually, it's May 1st. Not sure where I got the 3rd from.

Bay Area coronavirus: How life has changed with shelter-in-place order

Well, the actual order says may 3rd.

http://www.acphd.org/2019-ncov/shelter-in-place.aspx

 

[StealthP3D]

Please forgive me if this has been covered in this thread. I haven't been keeping up with it much lately.

Anyway, I've read several people say Tesla will have a strong 2nd quarter.

I've put in the time to keep up with the thread so I find it baffling that your takeaway is that people think Q2 should be a strong quarter. I do recall some people indicating they felt the results might not be as bad as the factory downtime might indicate due to a full quarter of uninterrupted production at G3 (and perhaps better than expected execution/production at the US plants for the weeks they are operating at full capacity). But we don't even know when Q2 production will start at those plants that have been shut down. So anyone who pretends to know what Q2 results will look like is full of sugar.

I think it's instructive to know that in mid-2019 Musk gave forward guidance for Q1 and Q2 and it was that they would be "tough" quarters. And that was before Coronavirus. So, while everything is relative, I don't think anyone is expecting great results in Q1 or Q2 relative to pre-Coronavirus expectations. However, meeting those "tough" expectations, in spite of Coronavirus, would be a huge win in my book and bode well to future quarters production.

Just remember that "strong" is a relative concept and the market reacts to the performance relative to expectations, not the actual performance. Big moves in the market are generally due to results being better or worse than what was expected before the results were known.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Lol, Sandy Munro is now giddy as a schoolgirl as he delves further into the Model Y's secrets (Hint: he's happy with what he's found).

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

I've put in the time to keep up with the thread so I find it baffling that your takeaway is that people think Q2 should be a strong quarter. I do recall some people indicating they felt the results might not be as bad as the factory downtime might indicate due to a full quarter of uninterrupted production at G3 (and perhaps better than expected execution/production at the US plants for the weeks they are operating at full capacity). But we don't even know when Q2 production will start at those plants that have been shut down. So anyone who pretends to know what Q2 results will look like is full of sugar.

I think it's instructive to know that in mid-2019 Musk gave forward guidance for Q1 and Q2 and it was that they would be "tough" quarters. And that was before Coronavirus. So, while everything is relative, I don't think anyone is expecting great results in Q1 or Q2 relative to pre-Coronavirus expectations. However, meeting those "tough" expectations, in spite of Coronavirus, would be a huge win in my book and bode well to future quarters production.

Just remember that "strong" is a relative concept and the market reacts to the performance relative to expectations, not the actual performance. Big moves in the market are generally due to results being better or worse than what was expected before the results were known.

Just remember that even $150M in GAAP Income claimed due to Q2/FSD/Stop-on-Signal is the equivalent of 15 days of Model 3 production.

Tesla does not need to earn more than $1 net profit in Q2, as long as any loss in Q1 is limited to less than $246M. We've already seen Deutsche Bank predict a near-breakeven result for Q1.

Let's wait and see when Fremont reopens before we prejudge Q2. I think this is very doable.

Cheers!

 

[JusRelax]

I've put in the time to keep up with the thread so I find it baffling that your takeaway is that people think Q2 should be a strong quarter. I do recall some people indicating they felt the results might not be as bad as the factory downtime might indicate due to a full quarter of uninterrupted production at G3 (and perhaps better than expected execution/production at the US plants for the weeks they are operating at full capacity). But we don't even know when Q2 production will start at those plants that have been shut down. So anyone who pretends to know what Q2 results will look like is full of sugar.

I think it's instructive to know that in mid-2019 Musk gave forward guidance for Q1 and Q2 and it was that they would be "tough" quarters. And that was before Coronavirus. So, while everything is relative, I don't think anyone is expecting great results in Q1 or Q2 relative to pre-Coronavirus expectations. However, meeting those "tough" expectations, in spite of Coronavirus, would be a huge win in my book and bode well to future quarters production.

Just remember that "strong" is a relative concept and the market reacts to the performance relative to expectations, not the actual performance. Big moves in the market are generally due to results being better or worse than what was expected before the results were known.

One thing that I think hasn't been discussed (I haven't seen it discussed at least) is that profitability may impacted significantly less than revenue. Completely closing a factory as opposed to keeping two factories open at halved production speed should mitigate costs.