Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

I have about $44k of dry powder. Instead of waiting for the SP to drop to $440, I sold a weekly cash covered $455 put for $1,500. I hope this is a responsible way to get 100 shares. I can wait for the stock price to drop but I rather take an active approach. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. If it won't, I'll pocket the $1,500 and fish again the week after.

This is what I did with SP @ $630. Sold 1 $450 2022 put contract for $8,200 and plan to sit on it til SP hits $850 again and I can buy-out for ~$2k.

Perfectly happy to have it executed and buy @ $450($368 effective), but that hasn't happened yet even with recent dips to $361.

IMO this is the way to go for the duration of this downturn and especially if we go into a mild recession. Buying calls to try and time this stock is just not gonna be easy in this wacky market. LEAPs perhaps, but couldn't even get a good profit out of $500 calls after a phenomenal deliveries report this week.

I'm sitting on cash anyway, and with the SP fairly historically high in the $450-650 range, it's the perfect time to just sell puts at levels you feel comfortable and reel in the cash.

The @neroden method incorporates call with this for some reason, but I didn't bother.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I would be cautious with that in the near-term. If we don't hear more good news soon, TSLA share price is likely to suffer some in the coming weeks.

Let's not confuse a lack of good news with a market that's completely out of whack. We had about the best news possible this past week and battery day is a month or two out. Do you not think Deutsche adjusting to a profitable 1Q projection is good news?

 

[Intl Professor]

I'm beginning to think this board is full of 6 year olds.

Oh, to be six again. Have you seen, even though located in place they soon bounce up and down! It's their nature!

 

[abasile]

The @neroden method incorporates call with this for some reason, but I didn't bother.

I could be wrong, but I don't remember @neroden buying calls in addition to selling puts. Also, he was using leverage when selling puts, by keeping relatively "safe" securities as collateral. In today's volatile market, however, the use of margin can really steal one's peace of mind, and the set of stocks that can be considered "safe" is constantly changing. I'd hate to be forced to liquidate holdings at low prices just to avoid margin calls.

 

[Prunesquallor]

BIS2020: ARK's Q&A Video Conference on COVID-19 and Market Volatility

ARK's BIS2020 videocon. Worth a listen on a rainy, quarantined afternoon.

World's leading experts discuss mask sterilization (jk).

 

[Zero CO2]

I find there is still a lot of good content posted here and I think other posters are stepping up to the plate with content ...life goes on people ... I agree both @Fact Checking and @KarenRei were informative and dedicated posters to this thread .... but lets face it there are 2 sides to every story ... they could have been the bigger man/women in this case but have chosen not to ... as far as i am concerned it is there loss not ours ....

I am genuinely curious about the disagrees here ... i can only say grow up to all involved and work on your emotional intelligence ... the idea that 2 respected posters feel so slighted by the words of a single Mod and it is are taken so seriously is amazing to me ...

i am suspicious quite frankly that you could even be a successful investor with this type of behavior ... since investing requires a lot of emotional intelligence and grit(which i have been working a lifetime to acquire) .... delicate geniuses generally don't have a lot of emotional intelligence and if their intelligence is challenged they leave and find other blind followers...

maybe they are both really just traders as traders(technical) are ≠ to investors(fundamental)...

"not that there is anything wrong with that"

i must be missing something here ... I guess there is more to their exit than I care to understand

my saying is "consider the source " and move on ... change is good

 

[ggies07]

Oh where, oh where, has my battery day gone?...........I "work" at home now, so I can turn into the live stream anytime now

 

[powertoold]

I wonder if battery day is contingent on the battery building at gf3 being completed and online. If so, we have at least another month.

 

[abasile]

investing requires a lot of emotional intelligence and grit(which i have been working a lifetime to acquire)

Yes. Successful investing, in my opinion, boils down to buying shares in great companies with good trajectories and hanging on for dear life. Staying invested is key. Fear is the enemy. You never want to cut and run from an investment unless something fundamental has changed, you need the cash, or there's a better opportunity. This forum, in my estimation, remains the best resource for Tesla investors. While I regret that a few people have chosen to leave because of differences with some moderators, I'm thankful for the many great posters who remain, and for quality posters of tomorrow who may not have joined yet.

Slightly more on topic, as others may have expressed, I am very much hoping that Tesla is using the Fremont shutdown as an opportunity to prepare to produce many more Model Ys. As much as we like our Model 3, there is no chance that we would choose a Model 3 over the more functional Model Y, and I expect the vast majority of Tesla buyers will come to agree. This is probably why Tesla chose to combine Model 3 and Model Y numbers in the Production & Delivery report; Tesla undoubtedly expects the Y to substantially "cannibalize" the 3 (as well as the S and X). This is not a bad thing at all! Tesla just needs to be able to produce the right mix of vehicle models.

If Tesla shifts production in favor of the Y, then expect to see the Y highlighted as Tesla's "flagship" vehicle. In that case, the Y would be highlighted front and center on Tesla's website and there would be more tweets and other marketing touting the Y's selling points. I would not be surprised to see this happen once Fremont re-opens, more people are able to return to work, and Tesla gets close to selling off their existing Model 3 inventory.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Anyone have any estimates on how much existing inventory they had on hand when Fremont closed? How long can they keep selling cars until they have no more?

 

[obie_fl]

BIS2020: ARK's Q&A Video Conference on COVID-19 and Market Volatility

ARK's BIS2020 videocon. Worth a listen on a rainy, quarantined afternoon.

World's leading experts discuss mask sterilization (jk).

I watched the entire video which I rarely do (maybe the result of actually having the time) very enlightening. Cathie even got a pretty good dig in with our friend Chanos.

 

[adiggs]

This is what I did with SP @ $630. Sold 1 $450 2022 put contract for $8,200 and plan to sit on it til SP hits $850 again and I can buy-out for ~$2k.

Perfectly happy to have it executed and buy @ $450($368 effective), but that hasn't happened yet even with recent dips to $361.

IMO this is the way to go for the duration of this downturn and especially if we go into a mild recession. Buying calls to try and time this stock is just not gonna be easy in this wacky market. LEAPs perhaps, but couldn't even get a good profit out of $500 calls after a phenomenal deliveries report this week.

I'm sitting on cash anyway, and with the SP fairly historically high in the $450-650 range, it's the perfect time to just sell puts at levels you feel comfortable and reel in the cash.

The @neroden method incorporates call with this for some reason, but I didn't bother.

This is very close to The Wheel Strategy in the options world. I've got some posts up about selling puts over in the options trading thread.

 

[MC3OZ]

Karen is mostly posting on CV19 on twitter.

SpaceX is now making components for Medtronic:-
Medtronic on Twitter

 

[MC3OZ]

These tweets are interesting:-

JPR007 on Twitter

JPR007 on Twitter

JPR007 on Twitter

JPR007 on Twitter

e.g.

Tesla +12
BMW -47

I don't think the + for Tesla is sustainable, but the relative performance or something like it is sustainable IMO.

 

[willow_hiller]

These tweets are interesting:-

JPR007 on Twitter

JPR007 on Twitter

JPR007 on Twitter

JPR007 on Twitter

e.g.

Tesla +12
BMW -47

I don't think the + for Tesla is sustainable, but the relative performance or something like it is sustainable IMO.

Very interesting. Do we know how month-to-month Tesla sales data is collected/estimated? The charts say "Wards Intelligence" is the source, but I wonder if they have taken into account the fact that Tesla tends to deliver a large percentage of their vehicles in the last month of any quarter.

 

[MC3OZ]

Very interesting. Do we know how month-to-month Tesla sales data is collected/estimated? The charts say "Wards Intelligence" is the source, but I wonder if they have taken into account the fact that Tesla tends to deliver a large percentage of their vehicles in the last month of any quarter.

I don't think they take that into account, all this shows is CV19 didn't overly impact Tesla March deliveries.

But it also show very large drops for March for other car brands, and we can bet that isn't normal.

For April other car bands might be flat, and Tesla might drop, and YOY Tesla might be lower...
But YOY I think the drop for Tesla will be lower, as they already have some inventory... they need to get Fremont open to have reasonable May deliveries...

Step back a bit the average ICE car is not much better than it was 5 years ago, when demand is low, product appeal and innovation help achieve reasonable demand.

 

[Johann Koeber]

These tweets are interesting:-

JPR007 on Twitter

JPR007 on Twitter

JPR007 on Twitter

JPR007 on Twitter

e.g.

Tesla +12
BMW -47

I don't think the + for Tesla is sustainable, but the relative performance or something like it is sustainable IMO.

The tweet says: “AUTO SALES HIGHLIGHTS - MARCH 2030”

I took it for a long term forecast, just now realized it’s probably a typo. 2030 will see much more pronounced differences.

 

[MC3OZ]

Oh where, oh where, has my battery day gone?...........I "work" at home now, so I can turn into the live stream anytime now

If it is in April the date should be announced in the earnings call, which itself might be delayed.

I think Plaid Model S will featured heavily, so it needs to be finalised with a prototype close to the final production form ready.

That is how I see the delays, it is getting the technology ready, if it isn't ready, there may be further delays.

But I assume the Plaid Model S design is being simplified, which probably means close to final.

 

[mblakele]

I'm posting this because an antibody test could help get Fremont back online. Please don't follow up with OT discussion of CV19 itself. The article includes some interesting details, but they're better discussed in the CV19 thread.

https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article241774351.html

A new immunity test from Stanford University and an increased focus on screening for coronavirus will help the state dramatically ramp up testing over the next few weeks, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Saturday, with an ultimate goal of getting Californians back to work.

[...]

The Stanford blood test is just “hours” away from federal approval and could allow people to begin to return to work, Newsom said. The tests are “serological,” and could determine whether someone has developed antibodies to the coronavirus. In theory, those who develop immunity may be able to safely interact with others without catching or spreading it. [bold added]

[...]

It’s unclear the timeline for U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval, even as regulators on March 16 amended their policies for so-called emergency-use authorization.

The test will begin to be used on Californians in the coming week, said Dr. Charity Dean, assistant director at the California Department of Public Health.

[...]​

 

[Singuy]

I'm posting this because an antibody test could help get Fremont back online. Please don't follow up with OT discussion of CV19 itself. The article includes some interesting details, but they're better discussed in the CV19 thread.

https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article241774351.html

A new immunity test from Stanford University and an increased focus on screening for coronavirus will help the state dramatically ramp up testing over the next few weeks, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Saturday, with an ultimate goal of getting Californians back to work.

[...]

The Stanford blood test is just “hours” away from federal approval and could allow people to begin to return to work, Newsom said. The tests are “serological,” and could determine whether someone has developed antibodies to the coronavirus. In theory, those who develop immunity may be able to safely interact with others without catching or spreading it. [bold added]

[...]

It’s unclear the timeline for U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval, even as regulators on March 16 amended their policies for so-called emergency-use authorization.

The test will begin to be used on Californians in the coming week, said Dr. Charity Dean, assistant director at the California Department of Public Health.

[...]​

I think the lack of cases and how well Cali have done will get Fremont back online. But with Fremont online is useless without Panasonic opening shop at Giga.