Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheGrimSweeper]

OT
I’m not sure where to take this either. I was just replying to that other persons post. I think extraction of the oil sands is about 20% mining and 80% SAGD. So showing the pictures of the mining part doesn’t really give a clear picture on how most this oil is extracted. I am more for banning the mining side of the extraction process considering what it does do to the land. Although it least in Canada oil companies have to pay to reclaim the land after it is done. In many other countries the environmental regulations are not nearly as stringent or don’t exist at all.

To make this Tesla related. I’m an oil and gas engineer and first heard of Tesla in 2014. Started studying the company with a bias against electric cars. Realized Tesla solved every question I had. So I invested in Tesla from that point on cause it was a hedge against my job. Got laid off cause of the price discrepancy that Canada gets for its oil. Thank god TSLA has treated me well.

The problem is the more Canada keeps investing in what is not a future proof technology the more the economy stays tied to oil.

Oil price goes down, whole Canadian economy goes down. As a Canadian, I'd much rather they spend these billions diversifying the Canadian economy so it's not so attached to oil.

That way if oil dips as it is going to do in the next 10-20 years the Canadian economy can be more resilient.

Also I know Canada has better environmental regulations then some countries, but the tar sands are an environmental disaster.

My two cents as a Canadian.

 

[Buckminster]

No one talking rear facing seats?

Tesla Model Y third row seat might make more sense rear facing, what do you think? - Electrek

Tesla could offer both as options.

 

[pz1975]

The problem is the more Canada keeps investing in what is not a future proof technology the more the economy stays tied to oil.

Oil price goes down, whole Canadian economy goes down. As a Canadian, I'd much rather they spend these billions diversifying the Canadian economy so it's not so attached to oil.

That way if oil dips as it is going to do in the next 10-20 years the Canadian economy can be more resilient.

Also I know Canada has better environmental regulations then some countries, but the tar sands are an environmental disaster.

My two cents as a Canadian.

Exactly this! Well-stated. Pouring endless amounts of money into an eventual obsolete industry is the definition of short-sighted.

 

[StealthP3D]

No one talking rear facing seats?

Tesla Model Y third row seat might make more sense rear facing, what do you think? - Electrek

Tesla could offer both as options.

I had assumed all along that Model Y could only accommodate rear-facing third-row seats. It hardly deserves an entire article.

Disclaimer: I haven't bothered to read the article.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

I've put in the time to keep up with the thread so I find it baffling that your takeaway is that people think Q2 should be a strong quarter. I do recall some people indicating they felt the results might not be as bad as the factory downtime might indicate due to a full quarter of uninterrupted production at G3 (and perhaps better than expected execution/production at the US plants for the weeks they are operating at full capacity). But we don't even know when Q2 production will start at those plants that have been shut down. So anyone who pretends to know what Q2 results will look like is full of sugar.

I think it's instructive to know that in mid-2019 Musk gave forward guidance for Q1 and Q2 and it was that they would be "tough" quarters. And that was before Coronavirus. So, while everything is relative, I don't think anyone is expecting great results in Q1 or Q2 relative to pre-Coronavirus expectations. However, meeting those "tough" expectations, in spite of Coronavirus, would be a huge win in my book and bode well to future quarters production.

Just remember that "strong" is a relative concept and the market reacts to the performance relative to expectations, not the actual performance. Big moves in the market are generally due to results being better or worse than what was expected before the results were known.

I've been glancing at the posts as I've had a minute here and there. So it's possible that my mindset of the thread is. Skewed by stumbling upon the one post that said q2 would be strong. Seems like someone was listing some events that could make the SP move higher. I'll look back and see if I can find it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I had assumed all along that Model Y could only accommodate rear-facing third-row seats. It hardly deserves an entire article.

Disclaimer: I haven't bothered to read the article.

Yeah don't waste your time. That's just redFay trying to pretend he thought this up (rather than stole the idea from this Sandy Munro video, published 1 day earlier):

"Model Y: Potential 3rd Row Seating, Ingress/Egress, Rear Door Service Latch"

 

[Artful Dodger]

covid19.healthdata.org is estimating California's peak being April 26th, 2020. It also projects California ICU beds needed through June, 2020 and total "deaths" flattening June-August, 2020. Given this estimate and projection, how will this affect the state authorities timeline for supporting the reopening of Fremont before the end of Q2?

Pardon me? The State did not shutdown Fremont: the decision to suspend production was Tesla's, based on the well-being of their employees and challenges facing their suppliers. The State of California has declared auto manufacturing an essential industry, thus is exempt from any blanket shutdown / shelter-in-place orders.

Your generalized projections from a non-Gov't research center at the University of Washington seem remotely connected to the in situ factors which will guide Tesla's decision making going forward. Tesla will do what's best based on their circumstances, not on some NGO's projections. It will be evidence based decision making.

 

[tinm]

He also discussed what a disaster Tesla communications still remains. Around the 23 minute mark. "They're starting to look like the evil empire".

wait, was this a reply to something... who’s he and what video/audio are you referring to... would like to know more

 

[Fobble]

And the other auto manufacturers are what? 5%, 6%.

I look up to winners, and not losers

 

[gerebgraus]

Yes, this is obvious from the way Tesla is brazenly profiteering by giving away ventilators and other healthcare items./s

I see absolutely no relation of your posts to mine. You mean to say that Tesla has not gamed the system when maximized deliveries to geographies with expiring stimulus. Of course it did. I have never said that Tesla was unethical. In fact I believe it is highly ethical. My comment was an obvious fact. It should not have been even remotely controversial.

 

[SO16]

wait, was this a reply to something... who’s he and what video/audio are you referring to... would like to know more

Jack.

 

[MC3OZ]

Some long term perspective of TSLAQ:- JPR007 on Twitter

I tried to calculate what affect short sellers have on me as a long term holder, my conclusion is they may raise the medium term share price and that may help convertible notes convert.

At present I think many pension funds have too many oil stocks and not enough TSLA and other growth stocks, fund managers are letting members down badly..

Trump sticking a tariff on imported oil is the only viable way to protect the US oil industry, once that tariff is applied, it is never going away.
That will not mean US oil stocks a stellar investments, merely that they mostly survive.

But the big question is why don't pension funds have good research, and a long time horizon?

Maybe shorts have had an affect in that volatility has stopped funds looking at Tesla, or perhaps it is merely that the fact that it isn't in the S&P 500.

 

[Pras]

Tesla engineering update on ventilators.

Tesla on Twitter

 

[FrankSG]

No, Tesla’s iPhone moment already happened, it’s Model 3/Y, by itself it’s going to make Tesla a trillion dollars company, it just take time for market to realize how big a deal it is.
CyberTruck, FSD, energy etc are the stuff to make it into 10T.

I have to nitpick and disagree with the details of this statement.

To deserve a trillion dollar valuation, I think Tesla will most likely need an annual vehicle production somewhere on the order of 8-10M.

Say Tesla sells 8M vehicles per year for an ASP of $50k (slightly optimistic price point) for a total revenue of $400B. Then if Tesla has a gross margin of 22.5%, and OPEX is 10% of total revenues, that'd give it an operating margin of 12.5% and an EBIT of $50B.

Then with an EBIT multiple of 20x, that'd give Tesla a valuation of $1T. An EBIT multiple of 20x might also be on the rich side for a manufacturing business, but not as much for a large monopolistic tech giant.

I'm as optimistic as anyone, but I doubt Tesla would reach this with this just Model 3/Y, and would likely need a bunch of other models such as the Cybertruck and Semi at least to reach this point. Most likely they'd need a cheaper, compact vehicle (or 2) thrown in the mix as well.

This excludes autonomy and AMaaS (Autonomous Mobility as a Service) businesses of course. With those business included, they'd reach the $1T valuation mark much much sooner.

 

[Big Dog]

Pardon me? The State did not shutdown Fremont: the decision to suspend production was Tesla's, based on the well-being of their employees and challenges facing their suppliers. The State of California has declared auto manufacturing an essential industry, thus is exempt from any blanket shutdown / shelter-in-place orders.

Your generalized projections from a non-Gov't research center at the University of Washington seem remotely connected to the in situ factors which will guide Tesla's decision making going forward. Tesla will do what's best based on their circumstances, not on some NGO's projections. It will be evidence based decision making.

The Governor may have exempted Tesla, but the local (Alameda) county health department did not. After a few run-ins with the County sheriff, Elon decided to go on hiatus. Sure, Elon could have fought the county in court, but chose not to.

 

[FrankSG]

Tesla engineering update on ventilators.

Tesla on Twitter

Rockstars. These engineers are amazing.

 

[brantse]

Although it hasn't been a popular opinion around here, I'm really hoping and looking forward to the potential for a big supply deal with another auto OEM. Many have dismissed any benefits for Tesla to do this, but I see this as the easiest and fastest way to really scale to multi-million units per year. Once the TWh manufacturing capacity has been built, they could pump out and supply skateboards to other OEM'S in huge numbers. Not only will this help transition others to EV's, but it will solidify Tesla's lead in EV powertrains and bring huge amounts of revenue. I'm hoping that plans to eventually do this are alluded to or even announced during battery day.

 

[Big Dog]

I have to nitpick and disagree with the details of this statement.

To deserve a trillion dollar valuation, I think Tesla will most likely need an annual vehicle production somewhere on the order of 8-10M.

Say Tesla sells 8M vehicles per year for an ASP of $50k (slightly optimistic price point) for a total revenue of $400B. Then if Tesla has a gross margin of 22.5%, and OPEX is 10% of total revenues, that'd give it an operating margin of 12.5% and an EBIT of $50B.

Then with an EBIT multiple of 20x, that'd give Tesla a valuation of $1T. An EBIT multiple of 20x might also be on the rich side for a manufacturing business, but not as much for a large monopolistic tech giant.

I'm as optimistic as anyone, but I doubt Tesla would reach this with this just Model 3/Y, and would likely need a bunch of other models such as the Cybertruck and Semi at least to reach this point. Most likely they'd need a cheaper, compact vehicle (or 2) thrown in the mix as well.

This excludes autonomy and AMaaS (Autonomous Mobility as a Service) businesses of course. With those business included, they'd reach the $1T valuation mark much much sooner.

No question that Telsa would need some cheaper vehicles to sell. The Luxury car market worldwide currently totals only ~$500B.

 

[MC3OZ]

The Real Cost of Trucking - Per Mile Operating Cost of a Commercial Truck - TruckersReport.com

Do some maths here, the Tesla Semi is very appealing on fuel savings and maintenance savings, add in drivers savings from Platooning, we are talking savings too big to ignore.

Since the release of Model 3 Tesla hasn't just been in the luxury car market and I suggest they are about to become a significant part of the trucking market.add in energy storage and generation... the idea that Tesla only sells luxury cars is 2-3 years out of date, and becoming less relevant each week.

 

[UCF3]

The Governor may have exempted Tesla, but the local (Alameda) county health department did not. After a few run-ins with the County sheriff, Elon decided to go on hiatus. Sure, Elon could have fought the county in court, but chose not to.

There’s not much to fight. The supremacy clause is clearly on Tesla’s side

No question that Telsa would need some cheaper vehicles to sell. The Luxury car market worldwide currently totals only ~$500B.

I don’t agree. Time after time when they ask people what they traded in for a model 3, Honda civics and Toyota Camrys are on the list. People will pay luxury prices especially once FSD is proven.