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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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The Governor may have exempted Tesla, but the local (Alameda) county health department did not. After a few run-ins with the County sheriff, Elon decided to go on hiatus. Sure, Elon could have fought the county in court, but chose not to.

Panasonic also shutting down GF1 cell production made keeping Fremont open at full capacity rather redundant.
 
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Tesla engineering update on ventilators.

Tesla on Twitter

Tesla Ventilators use screens from the Model 3. Most helpfully, Tesla has a cheap and plentiful supply of all the parts needed to make their own ventilator product WITHOUT competing for scare parts for existing ventilator designs. Here's the video hosted on Youtube:

 
Any ideas on what is pushing the futures up 3.5%?
NYC reported a decrease in covid-19 deaths today, and possilbly even more significantly, a decrease in new hospital admissions.

If this is an actual trend (rather than a statistical aberration), it would mean there is a proven method to control the pandemic (social distancing), and even more importantly a known timetable for a local outbreak to run its course under said treatment.

Of course this Futures gain is on spec, but the Market is forward looking by its very nature. Skeptical? Buy puts. For the rest of the Market, this will be huge: Just look at Global Futures as of 02:00 EDT (for instance, NASDAQ is up over +4.0%)

Futures.GlobalMarkets.2020-04-06.02-00.png
 
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Agree completely.

But I can still dream.

Elon has given clues on how Tesla can transition the world to EVs without supplying parts to bumbling non-integrated OEMs. He said at the GF3 opening that Tesla will create a "world car" that will be radically different from expectations. Let's dream about that.

I believe "radically different" means radically cheaper... much cheaper than anyone expects. One obvious possibility is a Cybercar that uses the lower-cost production methods of Cybertruck, such as a folded stainless-steel exoskeleton instead of stamped and painted panels. Some folks have already thought about what that could look like and cost.

tesla-cybercar.jpg

Tesla Cybertruck Envisioned As Ultra Cheap $25,000 Cybercar

With the new battery tech that is coming, maybe $25k is too high an estimate.

Too ugly for the mass market? I doubt it. Cybertruck will accustom people to the cyber look, and IMO it's more attractive than the rococo abominations of Toyota. Also, when Tesla Network is operating, robotaxis won't need to look fancy.

How long will it be before Tesla is cranking out cheap robotaxis by the millions and replacing gas-powered trips by the billions? I don't think Tesla needs no stinkin' OEMs to help the mission.
 
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I still don’t see this as anything but a disaster. Two options:

1). The OEMs literally add nothing but bodies and seats. I see zero value added there. In fact, any radically different body styling could (I would think) require recalibration of the Autopilot because of different camera locations and visibility. And a body with bad aerodynamics would decrease range. Would Tesla really want their powertrain associated with vehicles that get crappy range?

2). The OEMs provide additional functionality to the "skateboard" such as unique cockpit displays, suspension, sound systems, HVAC, etc. in other words, the supply chain and software integration nightmare they are currently experiencing in their EV development. Tesla would have to supply unique software integration and OTA support to each OEM. No way.

in either case, Tesla would have to expand its service capabilities to cars partially built by other manufacturers.

Bottom line : Tesla prides itself on its vertical integration and total systems integration expertise. What you are proposing destroys both. They would lose control of the total vehicle quality. It would be neither easy nor fast.
Agree completely.

In addition, Tesla stood up a factory in China in a year to make 150k vehicles p.a. (and increasing rapidly) That was their first go. If they want to make another million cars, they can just replicate the factory.

How long would it take legacy OEMs to design a new glider to go around Tesla's drivetrain and software stack? probably longer than it would take Tesla to build a new factory.
 
While other OEMs depend upon advertising, Elon invokes Limbic resonance.

Elon Musk @elonmusk
"Music is a limbic resonator"
8:58 PM · Apr 5, 2020

Its not just rocket science with this guy; its neuroscience. BTW, if Elon drops a new song on Emoji Records, Imma buyer b4 Q1 Earnings. :p

How long would it take legacy OEMs to design a new glider to go around Tesla's drivetrain and software stack? probably longer than it would take Tesla to build a new factory.

Indeed. Elon proposed this last year when he tweeted that Tesla could buy Mercedes/Sprinter 'gliders' and add their own drivetrain. Since then: 'crickets'. Daimler is a starving dog that can't even lift its own head when its tossed a bone. Sad.

I’m waiting for the one with the robotic arm that does the intubation on its own :)
Pretty sure they have those in Amsterdam... London, for sure. ;)


Cheers!
 
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Tesla Ventilators use screens from the Model 3. Most helpfully, Tesla has a cheap and plentiful supply of all the parts needed to make their own ventilator product WITHOUT competing for scare parts for existing ventilator designs. Here's the video hosted on Youtube:


Not just the screens, the AI computer is in that box!

It does not take that computational power to save a 12 second old waveform to display the new waveform against. Or even compare the current waveform to a series of reference waveforms from this patient's time on the machine.

But with AI, a data set could be built that points out windows of therapeutic opportunity. This opens the window to sequential therapies properly administered.

Also, folks in the ICU (perhaps with sepsis) are a barely balanced unstable system ready to go south at any minute. A really difficult attention task for humans of all skill levels.

Getting this kind of recognizing computational power into those settings can save a lot of lives by triggering the right actions at the right times... Does not always work like that today.
 
Upgraded to Buy by Jefferies: 650 USD

I do not see anything on my IB news related to TSLA. I believe Jefferies had downgraded TSLA to Hold with a 800 price target back in late February. I guess now they upgraded to BUY but reduced price target. Do you have a link? Thanks.

Regardless it should be an interesting day. Last time futures were limit up we took off(16% on 03/24). Cheers.
 
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Innovation Stacks, Gaming, Preventative Tech, Oncology, & Bitcoin

Latest ARK newsletter. Most Investor Thread folks knew this, but it’s nice to see some OTHER really smart folk recognize the same thing. Emphasis mine.

EVs are Gaining Market Share in This Downturn
COVID-19 is changing the auto landscape more than most investors recognize. On Thursday Tesla reported that its deliveries increased 40% year over year during the first quarter while US auto manufacturers reported roughly flat sales for the first two month of the quarter and then a drop of 35% to roughly 11.4 million in March. Tesla purchased its Fremont factory inexpensively after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. The plant previously was owned by GM and Toyota, but GM withdrew from the venture following its bankruptcy, which led to Toyota closing down the factory. ARK expects that traditional automakers now under duress will sell excess capacity, paving the way for Tesla and other EV startups to scale manufacturing this time as well.