Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SoGA Fan Club]

Wow, you're jumping to canned?

Yea, cause that got me the info much quicker.

Thanks for taking time to post the links. I appreciate it.

 

[Mike Smith]

Tesla's China sales hit record high in March: industry association

Jan - 2,620
Feb - 3,900
Mar - 10,160

 

[Khamul]

And we have another Munro video out. He's very happy with the progression from 3 to Y

Tailor Welded Blanks, Body Side Inner, Welding Comparison MY-M3, Parts Raffle!

 

[junas]

Would be sick if Model Ys are really rolling off the line in Berlin "in about a year" from now.

I agree with @cliffski that it seems too good to be true, but I didn't expect Giga Shanghai nor the Model Y to ramp this swiftly either.

Would love to see Tesla over-deliver on Giga Berlin too.

"About a year" is doable in Berlin, but tight as every schedule with Elon. If Germans are slower than the Chinese, they are probably missing the schedule by some weeks or max few months, but not by a year in any realistic scenario.

It mostly depends on the general construction speed (foundations, structural work, etc.). Chinese are hard to beat in that, but Germany is still super-efficient in European scale. While Germans are now famous of failing their Berlin airport project, it doesn't mean they cannot execute when there is a proper plan. Tesla has their own already-tested drawings reducing the risk of repeating the much hyped airport catastrophe.

After the heavy construction phase is completed the remaining machinery&tooling work could be even faster in Berlin than it was in China. In Shanghai most pieces of the puzzle were imported from overseas and probably installed by German (Grohmann) and American staff. I cannot see they need much more time in Berlin to install the same robotics again. Only negative is that Berlin has better nightclubs to distract engineers

 

[Artful Dodger]

Jobless numbers overwhelmed by new $2.3T FED stimulus plan: (Market and TSLA way up)

Pre-Market High: $561.50 (09:12:37 AM)​

Federal Reserve unveils details of $2.3 trillion in programs to help support the economy | CNBC.com

 

[Dreadnought]

Tesla's China sales hit record high in March: industry association

Jan - 2,620
Feb - 3,900
Mar - 10,160

And this while "Overall passenger car sales in March were down 40.8% from a year earlier." Bullish AF.

 

[StealthP3D]

Would be sick if Model Ys are really rolling off the line in Berlin "in about a year" from now.

I agree with @cliffski that it seems too good to be true, but I didn't expect Giga Shanghai nor the Model Y to ramp this swiftly either.

To be clear, @cliffski took Elon's estimate of "about a year" and changed it to "under a year" and then said he thought that was "optimistic".

Yes, words matter.

 

[canoemore]

What do folks here think about how much money the Fed is pumping out? I am the polar opposite of savvy when it comes to this sort of thing. Is there a danger of some sort of bubble that may pop in the near to medium term and drag Tesla down with the rest of the market?

Edit: If this is a stupid question, my apologies.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla's China sales hit record high in March: industry association

Jan - 2,620
Feb - 3,900
Mar - 10,160

Wow, that's 16,680 cars or about 18.9% of Tesla's 2020Q1 deliveries. Soon, GF3 will be cranking out around 5K Model 3s per week (with the introduction of the MIC M3LR with CATL modules). That alone will raise deliveries to a rate of over 60K per quarter (250K/yr).

Then, the new Model Y plant will triple that in 2021.

Cheers!

 

[Nocturnal]

What do folks here think about how much money the Fed is pumping out? I am the polar opposite of savvy when it comes to this sort of thing. Is there a danger of some sort of bubble that may pop in the near to medium term and drag Tesla down with the rest of the market?

Edit: If this is a stupid question, my apologies.

IMO the danger is that people think this money will get us back to January. That's impossible. For that to happen we would need a vaccine or nearly 100% effective treatment overnight. So when people start seeing the real impact of shutting down much of the economy we may get back to panic selling.

There is going to be a near term normal where some parts of our economy open back up, factories etc. but things like travel and sporting events are not coming back for a long time. Standard economic theory says that all this spending will result in inflation, that hasn't happened so far with US debt but we are piling it on big time.

I like Gate's take on this. He is a good observer I think because he isn't a Wall Street guy, but is obviously a techie and tied to the business and philanthropic worlds.

Bill Gates: Schools will reopen in the fall, but economy won't magically return to the way it was

Wow, that's 16,680 cars or about 18.9% of Tesla's 2020Q1 deliveries. Soon, GF3 will be cranking out around 5K Model 3s per week (with the introduction of the MIC M3LR with CATL modules). That alone will raise deliveries to a rate of over 60K per quarter (250K/yr).

Then, the new Model Y plant will triple that in 2021.

Cheers!

Well, I sold off most of my other positions on today's and yesterday's bounce. I guess it's back to being a TSLA hyper bull and exposing myself too much to one stock. (more so)

 

[Singuy]

What do folks here think about how much money the Fed is pumping out? I am the polar opposite of savvy when it comes to this sort of thing. Is there a danger of some sort of bubble that may pop in the near to medium term and drag Tesla down with the rest of the market?

Edit: If this is a stupid question, my apologies.

If closure of the economy continues for months then a downgrade in the countries ability to pay back debt will be a thing. Remember that the revenue line for the federal government is taxes collected from people and corporations. If the people are sitting at home and corporations are not doing anything, the government gets no revenue therefore cannot afford to pay back debt..kind of like a real business. They can print money but if trade is affected (as in US output), then the money is as good as paper. The economy is not based on a country's ability to print money and then use said money to buy goods while providing nothing in return..that's called wishing things into existence.

 

[Mike Smith]

Wow, that's 16,680 cars or about 18.9% of Tesla's 2020Q1 deliveries. Soon, GF3 will be cranking out around 5K Model 3s per week (with the introduction of the MIC M3LR with CATL modules). That alone will raise deliveries to a rate of over 60K per quarter (250K/yr).

Then, the new Model Y plant will triple that in 2021.

Cheers!

It's looking like Tesla will deliver over 50K vehicles in Q2 even if Fremont is shut down for the entire quarter. Maybe even 60k.

 

[StealthP3D]

What do folks here think about how much money the Fed is pumping out? I am the polar opposite of savvy when it comes to this sort of thing. Is there a danger of some sort of bubble that may pop in the near to medium term and drag Tesla down with the rest of the market?

Increasing liquidity is like a long-term tax on productivity. It does stretch the system, especially if future productivity decreases. The increase in liquidity causes asset prices to rise but risks inflation. The hyperinflation predicted by the anti-Obama crowd during the Bush/Obama stimulus never arrived. It could be different this time around - no one really knows. These things tend to take a long time to come home to roost and a productive economy could render it a non-issue.

The funny thing is when Obama signed off on it to protect the economy from the great recession, it's the end of the world - Armaggedon. When Trump does it, it's to make America great. Some of the same people who vehemently opposed it when done by Obama, support it when done by Trump.

 

[ProfTournesol]

Tesla's China sales hit record high in March: industry association

Jan - 2,620
Feb - 3,900
Mar - 10,160

Exponential in a closed market AWESOME!

 

[larmor]

IMO the danger is that people think this money will get us back to January. That's impossible. For that to happen we would need a vaccine or nearly 100% effective treatment overnight. So when people start seeing the real impact of shutting down much of the economy we may get back to panic selling.

There is going to be a near term normal where some parts of our economy open back up, factories etc. but things like travel and sporting events are not coming back for a long time. Standard economic theory says that all this spending will result in inflation, that hasn't happened so far with US debt but we are piling it on big time.

I like Gate's take on this. He is a good observer I think because he isn't a Wall Street guy, but is obviously a techie and tied to the business and philanthropic worlds.

Bill Gates: Schools will reopen in the fall, but economy won't magically return to the way it was

Well, I sold off most of my other positions on today's and yesterday's bounce. I guess it's back to being a TSLA hyper bull and exposing myself too much to one stock. (more so)

Business cycle, whether we get back to 'normal' or to January numbers of GDP growth, etc, i think it won't matter d/t normal wave of the business cycle. That being said, Tesla is well positioned d/t energy disruption.

Imagine a few years from now global warming (not sanitized "climate change") will make it impossible to go outside due to excessive heat, UV exposure, or excessive cold-- and the news and administration will say: "who knew this was coming??!"

 

[StealthP3D]

IMO the danger is that people think this money will get us back to January. That's impossible.

Whaddya mean? My brokerage account is already up 14% from where it started the year and I'm 45% in cash in case there's a double-dip.

 

[davecolene0606]

If closure of the economy continues for months then a downgrade in the countries ability to pay back debt will be a thing. Remember that the revenue line for the federal government is taxes collected from people and corporations. If the people are sitting at home and corporations are not doing anything, the government gets no revenue therefore cannot afford to pay back debt..kind of like a real business. They can print money but if trade is affected (as in US output), then the money is as good as paper. The economy is not based on a country's ability to print money and then use said money to buy goods while providing nothing in return..that's called wishing things into existence.

Only thing I’d point out is revenue from Corporations is not that much and in many cases zero.

Fire Away!
(It’s STILL the batteries, Stupid)

 

[davecolene0606]

So MBS out there pickin up Oil company stocks for pennies on the dollar. But perhaps, he is collecting Kodak stock as a certain disruptive force gathers momentum in both the energy and transportation sectors.

Discuss amongst yourselves.....

I’m verklempt

Fire Away!
(It’s STILL the batteries, Stupid)

 

[dmvevguy]

Does anyone on the board here have any experience with Goldman Sachs private wealth management? Curious to know returns and fees / reviews. I was lucky to sell some TSLA position at 800, and that $ is still sitting on the sidelines and I'm too risk adverse to deploy back in. Still have 50% of my core holdings from $200s on TSLA .

 

[Artful Dodger]

It's looking like Tesla will deliver over 50K vehicles in Q2 even if Fremont is shut down for the entire quarter. Maybe even 60k.

Oh yes, let's be explicit about some assumptions:

14K inventory remain in Europe after Q1 shipments => ~100% delivered in Q2
3K/wk production at GF3 => 36K deliveries in China
That's how we set a baseline of 50K deliveries before Fremont.

Now add to that:
Addtional Q2 production at GF3 for MIC Model 3 LR (CATL modules)
Remaining US/Canada Inventory: 4K?? (anybody have an estimate?)
ROTW Inventory: (presumably non-zero) 1K??

Let's assume Fremont restarts as planned on May 4 a single shift (half rate)
4K/wk production at Fremont => 48K deliveries in Q2

So that's a conservative estimate of over 100K deliveries in 2020Q2, while leaving room for an upside surprise.

Cheers!