Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Thanks for the offer...but no thanks.
I have been making plenty of ship builder and landing craft friends.

But not to worry we shall meet soon enough.

Something something horse something mouth.

 

[MC3OZ]

It's possible... but I'm hesitant because I think Plaid is using new battery tech. That would mean that Tesla has somewhere setup a line for the new battery tech.

There is a good chance they have a prototype line for the new battery tech at Fremont. All they need to do is build a single production line at Fremont/Lathrop.

It is worth pulling out all stops to make the Plaid Model S ASAP IMO, don't rush the tech, but don't delay investments.

 

[joh01652]

I would tend to disagree. While I don't expect a major drop in demand there will definitely be an impact. I am a good example, well-paid white-collar working for a very profitable software company that just completed a better then expected Q1. However, I am looking at my 401k and other investments and deciding I'll hold off on my Model Y order for the near term. Many others in the company who are younger are telling me the same thing as well as my neighbors. Now is not the time to make a major purchase. So many will delay buying a new car this year regardless of whether it's a Tesla or an ICE vehicle. I just look at all the hospital workers, some well paid in my area getting furloughed and the ripple affect thru the economy is significant. The other factor is the used car market is getting hammered and for buyers who want to trade in a car (again Tesla or ICE) towards the purchase of new Tesla will have to make up the drop in the used car value. They will either need to increase the loan amount or increase their cash contribution. So there are many examples that when combined will definitely affect demand.

It might help to think about Tesla demand in another way. A quick Google search of 2019 US auto sales reveals:

2019 Ford F150 sales: appx 900,000
2019 Subaru Outback sales: 181,178
2019 Toyota Camry sales: 336,978
2019 Jeep Cherokee sales: 191,397
Total US auto sales 2019? 4.7 million units
Worldwide 2019 auto sales? About 75-80 million.

At the beginning of this year Tesla was only guiding about 500,000 production units WORLDWIDE for 2020; therefore it is nearly certain that Tesla will sell EVERY unit they make. Tesla is supply constrained, not demand constrained. Certainly many Americans will be putting off buying a new car this year, but WORLDWIDE demand for Teslas will not be exceeded because Tesla simply doesn't make enough cars, they've only been at it for 10 years. The legacy manufacturers have been at it for decades and make millions of cars every year.

 

[Dutchie]

FSD is in an awkward place now. If it hadn't been a 2k upgrade for me because I had purchased EAP I'm not sure I would have jumped.

I had the same idea. Nice to get the new computer now for the reduced price. I am not holding my breath for FSD anymore. There are too many disappointments.

 

[powertoold]

At the beginning of this year Tesla was only guiding about 500,000 production units WORLDWIDE for 2020; therefore it is nearly certain that Tesla will sell EVERY unit they make. Tesla is supply constrained, not demand constrained.

You should be looking at the global demand for midsize luxury vehicles, which I believe is around 400 to 500,000 cars a year. I'm not so sure that Tesla will be able to sell are their cars if there is a big drop in demand for a midsize luxury vehicles.

 

[Todd Burch]

Once again today, Los Angeles has the cleanest air of any major city on Earth, scoring a remarkably low score of 2 on the AQI index (by contrast the worst city is Hanoi at 187):

Being right on the coast with prevailing winds right off the ocean helps to clear things out...

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Wed, Apr 08, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

VWAP: $546.43
Volume: 12,655,960
Traded: $6,915,612,098.72 ($6.92 B)

Closing SP / VWAP: 100.44%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)​

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 62.87% (91st Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 50.27% (85th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)

Comment: "Tubthumping"

 

[Unpilot]

Nice after hours bump.
Short week so I'm gunna say we end at 560.

Reason ....those calls at 550(11K) 560(9K) 600(7K)
So using a proprietary algorithm I call WTFDIK I come up with 560 to end the week.

 

[Causalien]

This is probably not a popular opinion here, but I am cautioning against further investment in giga china in terms of advanced techs.

Don't know how many here knows, but 3M's mask production facilities in China were de facto nationalized during the crisis. It wasn't just an export ban.

It remain to be seen if China returns the facilities after the crisis. But it is a future that needs to be taken into account. What kind of crisis can ccp use to nationalize giga 3? What tech is ok to abandon. Should a self destruct firmware be installed etc.

 

[joh01652]

You should be looking at the global demand for midsize luxury vehicles, which I believe is around 400 to 500,000 cars a year. I'm not so sure that Tesla will be able to sell are their cars if there is a big drop in demand for a midsize luxury vehicles.

There may be a drop for MS and MX, but unlikely for M3 and MY, and here's why: The car my M3 replaced was a 2003 Volvo with 200,000+ miles on it that still runs great. Many environmentally-conscious people such as myself don't consider the M3 (or MY) for that matter a "luxury" automobile. Many of us consider it a mandatory purchase since air pollution and climate change negatively affect us right now, every day, and cost the world economy billions each year.

In addition, just look at all the cheap Toyotas and Hondas people trade in for a M3. And the cost of operation is nearly zero once you've purchased the car because home electricity is very cheap (if you charge during off-peak hours), there are no oil changes, spark plugs, water pumps, timing belts, etc. EVs in general are simply a wiser purchase these days, and there's an EV for every budget.

No, Teslas are not just "luxury" purchases, although they are luxurious; they really are a smarter purchase if one is looking to spend $30K+ on an automobile, new or used. I am not rich, and I certainly don't chase after luxury. I know many people are in the same boat and feel the same way I do especially towards Teslas, and EVs in general.

,

 

[Causalien]

A mild form of this phenomenon occurs here fairly often the past few weeks. Go back a couple days and almost every trading anecdote since $970 in February was a winner. Everyone miraculously sold above the $700s and bought back at $400. It's just human nature. We tend to mention our victories and stay quiet about our losses, particularly among strangers.

I just buy and hold and buy more when I can. I've done this since 2013. I'm down bigly since February- on paper at least. That's pretty boring, but I can guarantee this...

I've never sold a share, therefore the stock has never dropped even temporarily on my account. That's my "wall street bet", and I'm proud of it.

So cheers to all of us boring, steadfast owners of a company we believe in.

That's why ppl who post a trade before an event should have mote weight than after an event. You'll be able to see them make the wrong trades and the % of success trades can be calculated.

Ppl who post only successful trades re those who are post-event. So the event already happened and they can filter.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This is probably not a popular opinion here, but I am cautioning against further investment in giga china in terms of advanced techs.

Don't know how many here knows, but 3M's mask production facilities in China were de facto nationalized during the crisis. It wasn't just an export ban.

It remain to be seen if China returns the facilities after the crisis. But it is a future that needs to be taken into account. What kind of crisis can ccp use to nationalize giga 3? What tech is ok to abandon. Should a self destruct firmware be installed etc.

Better tell Elon to re-lockdown those patents!

 

[MC3OZ]

There may be a drop for MS and MX, but unlikely for M3 and MY, and here's why: The car my M3 replaced was a 2003 Volvo with 200,000+ miles on it that still runs great. Many environmentally-conscious people such as myself don't consider the M3 (or MY) for that matter a "luxury" automobile. Many of us consider it a mandatory purchase since air pollution and climate change negatively affect us right now, every day, and cost the world economy billions each year.

In addition, just look at all the cheap Toyotas and Hondas people trade in for a M3. And the cost of operation is nearly zero once you've purchased the car because home electricity is very cheap (if you charge during off-peak hours), there are no oil changes, spark plugs, water pumps, timing belts, etc. EVs in general are simply a wiser purchase these days, and there's an EV for every budget.

No, Teslas are not just "luxury" purchases, although they are luxurious; they really are a smarter purchase if one is looking to spend $30K+ on an automobile, new or used. I am not rich, and I certainly don't chase after luxury. I know many people are in the same boat and feel the same way I do especially towards Teslas, and EVs in general.

,

Even for MS, Plaid MS will help..

I see demand as a pie, sure the overall pie is shrinking, but if Tesla can take a bigger slice of the pie, they end up with close to the same amount.

There are strategies they can attempt to increase their slice size, I suggested some but there are many more.

IMO there are fewer strategies other car makers can use, because their products start out less appealing and they are already on fairly thin margins with a lot of existing inventory....

The last thing other car makers need is Tesla growing market share, but that is a very likely outcome.

People are not going to rush to buy a new 25K car in the current market, buyers of 25K cars will mostly keep the old car. So this entry level segment shrinks more, as does the luxury segment above 50K - IMO the 35K-45K segment possibly shrinks the least, that is because some 50K+ buyers lease or buy a car in this price band as an alternative.

Those with an aspiration to purchase a 50K+ car don't buy a 25K car instead, M3/MY is an "affordable luxury" option which appeals to anyone wanting a nice new car. Factor in savings on gas and maintenance and from a TCO point of view, it makes even more sense.

Throw in safety, autopilot and some chance of FSD in the next 5 years, like Elon says, buying another brand in the same price segment doesn't make any sense, especially a 35K-45K ICE car.

 

[skybluecgreen]

I think it implies Panasonic employees will also return at that time because it seems they would have to for production to be normal but I haven't seen anything definitive on that.

Update per Carsonight moments ago:

Carsonight on Twitter

 

[madodel]

Tesla Model V gets its first positive review:

Tesla Model 3-based ventilator critiqued by ICU nurse: "Very good job...well done."

Now I'm waiting for the 1st road test. ;P

Go Tesla! Bring it!

Are you volunteering? Someone's gotta go first.

 

[UCF3]

Update per Carsonight moments ago:

View attachment 530490

Carsonight on Twitter

Don’t the Panasonic employees work in a super clean facility wearing PPE to keep the batteries clean? They should be able to go back quicker than most businesses as long as temperatures are being checked

 

[Singuy]

Pie shrinking yes yes yes.

2009, height of the financial crisis.

EU total New car registration: 16 million down from 18 million a year prior
US total new car registration: 10 million down from 11 million a year prior
China total : 10 million, up from 6 million a year prior.

2019 car new car registration World: 64 million.

Based on historical data, we are talking about maybe a 5 million drop down to 59 million?

Tesla was planning on half a million this year (which now would be a bull case due to production issues). Either you believe in that EV is the future or not..if it's the future and Tesla is the iphone of the car world, then why the F are people here stressing about demand problems from a company that will deliver just a drop in the bucket of total world car sales?

But but, Tesla is more expensive and most of the cars sold are priced at least 10k less. Yeah..so was the Iphone vs flip phones. Didn't stop people did it?

 

[Beltsbear]

What is the probability of Tesla selling ventilators, not just within the US but globally, at a profit if Coronavirus is going to be with us for years to come? Obviously the cost of producing one is much cheaper than what GM can muster up. Elon can keep giving these away but if there's a permanent market for it I don't see anything wrong with expanding the product line.

The market will be flooded with excess vents when this is all done. So only if Tesla makes something unusually good will it have any chance of profit for years.

 

[MC3OZ]

Very handy information: - Viv on Twitter

 

[Bet TSLA]

Being right on the coast with prevailing winds right off the ocean helps to clear things out...

Yeah, just like Denver, which was #2 when I looked a few moments ago.