Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MTL_HABS1909]

Incredible that Tesla’s sales are increasing while everyone else is on the decline, yet the stock is only up 2.5%. Ford and GM are up 13% and 5% respectively. Blows my mind.

 

[Sanny]

In the meantime, the federal reserve is throwing tons and tons of money to the small business sector among others. Another 2.3T today, a lot of it in low interest loans to small businesses. Small business loans will support faster recovery including eventually reflecting in car sales.
Another rumor is about cash for clunkers program in stimulus. Tesla should benefit from both.

With now nearly $8T in stimulus play, and growing, the equities will roar back when it does. And for now the downside risk seems to be minimized.

Just to clarify about small business loans. We are in a process of getting one for the last 2 weeks or so and the whole thing is ugly. Those loans as they are implemented currently are not what they hype it to be - they are too small, very restrictive, with a huge bureaucracy, etc. No one have received ANY money yet, and I expect much more companies that doesn't not need it will get the money and many companies that really need money will be cut off for various reasons. So I'm not holding my breath.

 

[canoemore]

Thanks to everyone for their takes on my question - very helpful.

I know others here have commented on how circumstances like the present can be especially fertile ground for disruptors like Tesla. I wonder if cleantech more generally could pave the way for robust economic recovery. The massive and highly productive investments that will be necessary for the energy transition could drag the country (and the world) out of tough economic times in a similar way to how WWII dragged the world out of the Great Depression. Perhaps that's a little melodramatic, I don't know.

 

[dw4ngg]

Incredible that Tesla’s sales are increasing while everyone else is on the decline, yet the stock is only up 2.5%. Ford and GM are up 13% and 5% respectively. Blows my mind.

Look at how much GM and F have fallen as compared to TSLA and you may be able to slowly piece your mind back together.

 

[LJS22]

If the market has a good afternoon could we hit 600 with the a good amount of call interest expiring today at that number?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Whaddya mean? My brokerage account is already up 14% from where it started the year and I'm 45% in cash in case there's a double-dip.

Lol, that's a good result holding mostly TSLA:

31.5% * 45% = 14%

Cheers!

Yes, I have cash on the sideline, but my brokerage account (100% TSLA) is up 31.53% YTD.

Except that's in USD. I'm also up 9.5% YTD on FOREX (I make money when Crude CL1 goes down). So I'm actually up 41.5% YTD. Jus' HODLing, that is...

Cheers!

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Look at how much GM and F have fallen as compared to TSLA and you may be able to slowly piece your mind back together.

You mean Tesla that dropped from $940/share? Ok thanks bud! Don’t know what I’d do without you.

 

[JusRelax]

If the market has a good afternoon could we hit 600 with the a good amount of call interest expiring today at that number?

Isn't this contradictory? For calls, MM's will push DOWN the stock as much as necessary to keep the targeted call(s) from going in the money. For puts, MM's will push UP the stock as much as necessary to keep the put(s) from going in the money.

If your point is that there is enough buying pressure behind the stock to push it up above 600, then yes, assuming that there are a significant number of calls at 600, I foresee MM's trying to push the stock to close at or just below 600, in order to ensure that all of those calls end up expiring today out of the money.

 

[LJS22]

Isn't this contradictory? For calls, MM's will push DOWN the stock as much as necessary to keep the targeted call(s) from going in the money. For puts, MM's will push UP the stock as much as necessary to keep the put(s) from going in the money.

If your point is that there is enough buying pressure behind the stock to push it up above 600, then yes, considering that there are a significant number of calls at 600, I foresee MM's trying to push the stock to close at or just below 600, in order to ensure that all of those calls end up expiring today out of the money.

Much better explanation! Thank you, I don’t mess with options much, just collect the shares. I was interested in the buying pressure aspect and what that could do.

Also will shorts be likely to cover late today? They’ve gotten all the bad news out on Tesla they can this week and it’s done nothing. I could imagine some might close out before the weekend.

 

[dww12]

Increasing liquidity is like a long-term tax on productivity. It does stretch the system, especially if future productivity decreases. The increase in liquidity causes asset prices to rise but risks inflation. The hyperinflation predicted by the anti-Obama crowd during the Bush/Obama stimulus never arrived. It could be different this time around - no one really knows. These things tend to take a long time to come home to roost and a productive economy could render it a non-issue.

The funny thing is when Obama signed off on it to protect the economy from the great recession, it's the end of the world - Armaggedon. When Trump does it, it's to make America great. Some of the same people who vehemently opposed it when done by Obama, support it when done by Trump.

I just went to mostly cash (still a few TSLA shares but 70% less). The market seems ahead of itself. I don’t think that the money pumping is going to the right place if unemployment keeps going up.

 

[30seconds]

Pie shrinking yes yes yes.

2009, height of the financial crisis.

EU total New car registration: 16 million down from 18 million a year prior
US total new car registration: 10 million down from 11 million a year prior
China total : 10 million, up from 6 million a year prior.

2019 car new car registration World: 64 million.

Based on historical data, we are talking about maybe a 5 million drop down to 59 million?

Tesla was planning on half a million this year (which now would be a bull case due to production issues). Either you believe in that EV is the future or not..if it's the future and Tesla is the iphone of the car world, then why the F are people here stressing about demand problems from a company that will deliver just a drop in the bucket of total world car sales?

But but, Tesla is more expensive and most of the cars sold are priced at least 10k less. Yeah..so was the Iphone vs flip phones. Didn't stop people did it?

I don't think 2009 vs. 2008 is a good comparator as the slowdown had already started in 2008. US new car registrations was hovering between 16 and 17m both before and after the 2008 / 2009 crisis

New vehicle registrations in the U.S. 2002-2018 | Statista

 

[StealthP3D]

Lol, that's a good result holding mostly TSLA:

31.5% * 45% = 14%

Cheers!

View attachment 530699

I would be down for the year but for the TSLA Jan & Feb calls I purchased last year and buying 2022 calls a day before we bottomed on March 18. It also helped that I added TSLA shares at $360 around the same time. In short, my brokerage account would be a disaster if not for TSLA!

But 100% Tesla? Congrats! I don't think I could do that!

 

[JusRelax]

Also will shorts be likely to cover late today? They’ve gotten all the bad news out on Tesla they can this week and it’s done nothing. I could imagine some might close out before the weekend.

Unfortunately, the short mindset eludes me, so I got nothing when it comes to predicting their moves.

 

[theschnell]

Does anyone on the board here have any experience with Goldman Sachs private wealth management? Curious to know returns and fees / reviews. I was lucky to sell some TSLA position at 800, and that $ is still sitting on the sidelines and I'm too risk adverse to deploy back in. Still have 50% of my core holdings from $200s on TSLA .

I don't actually know much about Goldman except that I think they are snakes in it only for themselves. If you were smart enough to buy Tesla, I don't think you need anyone else to help manage your money. Buy either more TSLA, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK), S&P 500 index, or sit on cash. No need for any options beyond those in my opinion.

 

[StealthP3D]

I just got an alert that the latest stimulus billed failed over partisan differences but the market seems awfully sanguine about it.

I like that.

 

[Singuy]

I don't think 2009 vs. 2008 is a good comparator as the slowdown had already started in 2008. US new car registrations was hovering between 16 and 17m both before and after the 2008 / 2009 crisis

New vehicle registrations in the U.S. 2002-2018 | Statista

Right I was making a point that this crisis doesn't affect new car sales that much as pointed out by historical data. Uber probably has a bigger impact on new car sales than this blimp.

 

[Singuy]

Only thing I’d point out is revenue from Corporations is not that much and in many cases zero.

Fire Away!
(It’s STILL the batteries, Stupid)

219 billion currently according to our debt clock which is not nothing, but yes way lower than payroll and federal income tax. Of course we now have millions of people not paying this and next month but instead are getting paid by the government. That's a double whammy.

 

[joh01652]

Incredible that Tesla’s sales are increasing while everyone else is on the decline, yet the stock is only up 2.5%. Ford and GM are up 13% and 5% respectively. Blows my mind.

Like PapaFox states over and over, the market makers manipulate the share price like crazy, especially on days like today when options expire. I really need to start filing complaints to the SEC.... not that it would do any good, I suppose.

 

[dw4ngg]

You mean Tesla that dropped from $940/share? Ok thanks bud! Don’t know what I’d do without you.

I'll let you figure that one out.. the 940 price was never a sustained price, but you use the data you want to draw the conclusions that suit you.. bud

Try starting at 1/1/2020... and go from there.

 

[Singuy]

Increasing liquidity is like a long-term tax on productivity. It does stretch the system, especially if future productivity decreases. The increase in liquidity causes asset prices to rise but risks inflation. The hyperinflation predicted by the anti-Obama crowd during the Bush/Obama stimulus never arrived. It could be different this time around - no one really knows. These things tend to take a long time to come home to roost and a productive economy could render it a non-issue.

The funny thing is when Obama signed off on it to protect the economy from the great recession, it's the end of the world - Armaggedon. When Trump does it, it's to make America great. Some of the same people who vehemently opposed it when done by Obama, support it when done by Trump.

This is why our two party system is cancer. And this is why the majority of Americans doesn't know their left from their right about anything and just blindly vote for their party based on some simple core issues that are easy to understand while the bulk of the complex things are just based on blind trust vs actually understanding what is going on.

And to understand what is going on requires a PHD from Yale because both sides have poisoned the facts in their favor so much that you really need to spend a lifetime of hardcore due diligence just to figure right from wrong.