Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Pezpunk]

I love what's happening today but is there any legit reason to think it will hold up?

I think this is mostly a delayed reaction to the surprisingly good P&D report. I am a true agnostic on how much SP moves are distorted by MM manipulation, but it sure looked like the initial tepid SP reaction to that report was due to a heroic effort to keep the SP under 500 at the Friday close after release. Now, after another week of lingering manipulation, the SP is truly free to rise.

Also contributing to the rise is more light at the end of the tunnel of the shutdown at Fremont, and great momentum in China.

i am also pretty agnostic regarding whether malicious intentional manipulation constitutes the primary movement of a $100 billion dollar corporation.

but i'm beginning to realize that literally *anything* you can accurately predict is worth money.

For example, one thing you can bank on is that *any* result released by Tesla will be touted as a negative by some very loud (and very disingenuous) voices. In this, they are doing me a huge favor by keeping the price irrationally depressed long enough for little ol' retail me to find some cash and buy more shares after some amazing delivery figures.

The system is rigged against people like me. Proof? just look at the spikes that always hit the stock about 2 minutes prior to results being announced. Good or bad, "wall street" always knows which way to jump just a few minutes before anyone in the public possibly can. Normally, this would mean someone like me would be out of luck if i wanted to buy more as a result of this report -- the price would rapidly settle in to a new baseline before the US market even opened. But, lucky for me, there are rabid, vocal, twitter-crusading, cable news dwelling Tesla Shorts who always work as hard as they can to muddy the narrative for a few days or weeks following, resulting in a slow, linear run-up as the BS settles to the bottom of the pool.

We have seen that same pattern after almost every good Tesla result. Big after-hours spike immediately preceding the announcement, heavy backtracking the next day, and then a couple weeks of steady climb.

Use that observation or don't; not advice.

 

[Captkerosene]

I assume some short covering this morning got the ball rolling. Those 600 calls that look to be executed, China numbers were out all weekend, but I wouldn’t be surprised to start off tomorrow with another decent run. I think there will be some more covering going on.

I think that Elon's tweet that the Robotaxi could still be ready by the end of the year influenced the market today. Most people had already dismissed that timeline and it was nice to hear that it could still happen.

 

[JRP3]

So much for the "super duper wiring" in the Model Y. Remarks by Elon in products and capabilities used to be correct with only timing being off (though some of the promises still need to materialize)

I'd say this is likely just another timing issue. Y production was moved forward and the new wiring scheme probably wasn't ready for prime time. I still expect it to happen at some point in the future.

 

[mblakele]

I'd say this is likely just another timing issue. Y production was moved forward and the new wiring scheme probably wasn't ready for prime time. I still expect it to happen at some point in the future.

Exactly: I think the 2019Q3 call made it fairly clear that Model Y would be more incremental than innovative, when they talked about being ahead of schedule and also mentioned high commonality of parts with Model 3.

Going forward I'd expect new technologies to arrive in both 3 and Y production at about the same time. The first step may be to retrofit some of the Y innovations onto the 3, to increase commonality: that octobottle and/or the rear casting. That might happen this year, once Fremont comes back online. Or it might be happening in Shanghai right now.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Am I the only one that is very impressed with the view numbers for Munros videos. Most of them are at over 100k. One at almost 200k. The latest one got 20k in two hours and 40k in six hours.

For a channel that didn't exist two weeks ago and doesn't seem to do much promotion themselves that seems very good. Wonder how many views Munro had expected. Had they asked me before I would have guessed less than 10k would be interested enough to watch this many episodes.

I know it's nothing compared to some "influencer" but it makes me happy at least.

 

[Zaxxon]

I think that Elon's tweet that the Robotaxi could still be ready by the end of the year influenced the market today. Most people had already dismissed that timeline and it was nice to hear that it could still happen.

Checking the historical record, Elon mentioning an FSD-related timeline is evidence that it should be dismissed.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I see it as adapting to change. They did speed up Model Y delivery, so some things gotta get compromised.

plus it implies that there is even more cost that can removed from manufacturing of the Y

 

[LJS22]

Am I the only one that is very impressed with the view numbers for Munros videos. Most of them are at over 100k. One at almost 200k. The latest one got 20k in two hours and 40k in six hours.

For a channel that didn't exist two weeks ago and doesn't seem to do much promotion themselves that seems very good. Wonder how many views Munro had expected. Had they asked me before I would have guessed less than 10k would be interested enough to watch this many episodes.

I know it's nothing compared to some "influencer" but it makes me happy at least.

Most views are short sellers looking for panel gaps and no air bags. Instead they are just crying watching Munro give compliment after compliment on the hard work being done to make the vehicles more efficient and better.

 

[ggies07]

Most views are short sellers looking for panel gaps and no air bags. Instead they are just crying watching Munro give compliment after compliment on the hard work being done to make the vehicles more efficient and better.

And as I sit at my computer watching the compliments roll in one by one I go:

 

[Nightshifter]

In case you missed. (Don't know if true)...
Tesla Giga 3 Shanghai China-Made Model 3 Order Skyrocket, 10 Orders in 1 minute

Tesla Giga 3 Shanghai China-Made Model 3 Order Skyrocket, 10 Orders in 1 minute

 

[Dwdnjck]

With all the growth that appears to be on the table, coupled with Elon’s sense of urgency, I am beginning to think leading the way to sustainability is no longer the goal. I think it’s more like world domination.

 

[Boomer19]

powering into the close

it’s funny when just after 10am you can look at the screen and see it break 600 with ease and say to yourself, looks like we can hit 650 today, and then it does

 

[Curt Renz]

Today’s closing prices:

--04.36% GM
--03.91% F
+13.60% TSLA

The shape of things to come.

 

[printf42]

Funny to see MM trying to pin it at 650 for the last few minutes.

And it’s even funnier it’s Monday!!!

Interesting week ahead.

 

[LN1_Casey]

650, very impressive for a day when the DOW closed down more than 300 points. Dunno why, but hey, good times.

 

[Johnny Ma]

Price action today, including AH, reminds me of early Feb of this year. Lots of fun.

 

[Cirrus MS100D]

So much for the "super duper wiring" in the Model Y. Remarks by Elon in products and capabilities used to be correct with only timing being off (though some of the promises still need to materialize)

With the wiring in the Model Y we start to see a plain untruth. Don't like where this is heading..

I disagreed with this because I cannot find a single instance where Elon or ANYBODY from Tesla said this was going to be in the Model Y, let alone "on day 1" but I'm happy go be corrected.

There was a PATENT for this super duper wiring that I'm sure was made into an "article" on that eclectictrick site with a whisper-down-the-lane "ZOMG it's going to be in the Model Y fo sho!!!" but this was just the internet deciding it was going to be in there, not Tesla, not Elon.

 

[Nate the Great]

Same thing in Canada. Except the SR+ had to stay the same price in order to still qualify for the Federal $5000 rebate. All other Tesla models saw a price increase.

I am assuming this is too bring in additional funds for Q2.

 

[StealthP3D]

With all the growth that appears to be on the table, coupled with Elon’s sense of urgency, I am beginning to think leading the way to sustainability is no longer the goal. I think it’s more like world domination.

I think the fact that so many old-world industries are dragging their feet pretty much implies that leading the way to sustainability requires world domination. It's a good place for an investor to be!

Congrats to all longs!

 

[mmw7]

By cliff you mean a blip? Production over sales
Is a hit to cash flow, but not profit. Sales are way up from 2019 Q1 and COGS are down from 2019. Overhead is higher from Shanghai, but the depreciation expense is unit based. They might lose 500 million, but I’d guess closer to 100-200 million loss. Q2 depends on the Fremont return to production. If May 4 happens, Q2 could also be close to break even.

Good feedback - much appreciated. Added to my position today. Hoping May 4 happens and Battery Day clearly addresses the "supply" ramp.