Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

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Better would be to send message to EM to stop tweeting, if that is possible.

Please reconsider, it's not laziness to scan news/twitter etc etc and share things with TMC.

If anyone shares a similar view, it suggests another view of TMC's Terms of Service are in order. Relevant passages are as below. :

• The messages express the views of the author of the message...
• You agree not to post any copyrighted material unless the copyright is owned by you or by this site....
• You remain solely responsible for the content of your messages...
• The TMC Forums are designed for members to express their opinions, viewpoints and testimonials on various products, services and events based upon speculation, personal knowledge and factual information through use...
• The posts made here are for educational as well as entertainment purposes

STOP
BEING
LAZY

THIS WASN'T ABOUT BEING LAZY

As TMC Users we should be allowed to express ourselves, be it by sharing what we think is pertinent to the rest of TMC Users from the ether.
Not everyone can write elegant prose, nor should everyone get some info from someplace else and spin it as their own. peace. cheers!!

 

[anthonyj]

Elon Musk tweeted, then revised, Tesla financial guidance. He probably shouldn't have.

Even Gene Munster is getting upset with Elon's tweeting

 

[BoringUsername]

Elon Musk tweeted, then revised, Tesla financial guidance. He probably shouldn't have.

Even Gene Munster is getting upset with Elon's tweeting

Gene Munster is a disingenuous "bull" just like you are. Why do you think CNBC welcomes him with open arms? He never has anything positive to say about Tesla

 

[elasalle]

Elon Musk tweeted, then revised, Tesla financial guidance. He probably shouldn't have.

Even Gene Munster is getting upset with Elon's tweeting

EM has changed. It took like 6-7 mths for one mistake, accidents/slip ups happen

 

[CorneliusXX]

About 40% of all new cars sales in the U.S. happen via leasing IIRC, and for luxury cars this proportion is even higher.

All big car companies in the U.S. have 'captured' financing subsidiaries such as GM Finance or Ford Credit, which offer an all-in-one leasing package from the manufacturer. Many consumers will prefer these deals were there's essentially a single party to deal with: the car maker.

For the Model S and X Tesla does about 10-20% of all their deliveries via Tesla leasing IIRC, I'd expect the Model 3 proprortion to be similar - with a fair amount of pent-up demand that has accumulated probably.

Additionally, many captive financing arms are prepared to offer better lease terms (e.g. higher RVs and lower monthly payments, lower interest rates, etc) as the company can make money off the vehicle sale and the financing whereas other lessons have to profit from the lease only.

 

[X Fan]

Model 3 VINs on Twitter
#Tesla registered 2,751 new #Model3 VINs. ~7% estimated to be dual motor. ~27% estimated to be International. Highest VIN is 294869.

Wow, just wow at a VIN number of 294869....Elon's tweet although at first mildly inaccurate does highlight how far his EV revolution has come.

 

[K_Dizzle]

Elon Musk tweeted, then revised, Tesla financial guidance. He probably shouldn't have.

Even Gene Munster is getting upset with Elon's tweeting

Munster has been upset with EM since the pot smoking thing. He comes off as a Quaker. Anyways, every crisis is an opportunity. I got a healthy amount of March $310 calls today. Fingers crossed we get some unexpected news.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Elon Musk tweeted, then revised, Tesla financial guidance. He probably shouldn't have.

Even Gene Munster is getting upset with Elon's tweeting

I’ll say again: meh. He misspoke and then corrected himself immediately. Given the context(and that the 2011 figure as stated was incorrect in the exact same way), it’s clear he meant to talk about production rate at the close of both years. That matches perfectly for both years.

Also, context again: this wasn’t in the context of announcing some new figure, just an offhand remark about how their production capacity has grown; remarking on his pride in Tesla’s accomplishments.

 

[Curt Renz]

MarketWatch - 33 minutes ago: Tesla the next Amazon? Shareholder sees the stock reaching $4,000

ARK interviews Elon - yesterday: On the Road to Full Autonomy With Elon Musk — FYI Podcast

 

[Drax7]

One does not get rewarded for sales growth and production growth
And improving execution.

But continually penalized by the false narrative promoted
By shorts and the ice holes at CNBC. Forever afraid
To make a positive pronouncement concerning tesla.

The Chinese are tripping over themselves to get
A piece of Elon and here he is treated like crap by
The financial analyst.

Does anybody ever make money listening to CNBC
And analysts? I certainly have not in the last
20 years.

 

[Joe F]

Speaking of CNBC: Up next, yet more BS about Tesla and Musk. Almost want to turn it off.

 

[shlokavica22]

FED minutes release ~43 minutes from now.

 

[Beltsbear]

I'm pretty sure Tesla wants to make Standard Range available the moment the new assembly lines at the Gigafactory start producing battery packs. It's an expensive assembly line the size of a football field, and they'd want to start generating a return on that capital investment ASAP.

But note that it's not a binary decision and that SR can be decoupled from the $35k price:

• Tesla has the freedom to limit the supply of SR configurations via production: they could only offer say 5k such units initially, per quarter, until they are ramping up. They reap the PR and "get the customer into the showroom" benefits, with a controlled impact on effective ASP.
  
• Tesla has the freedom to limit supply and improve margins via bundling: the initial SR could be bundled with AWD or the Premium Interior. That would allow an initial price of $39,000 and probably better margins than Medium Range.
• I'm sure there's tens of thousands, maybe over a 100,000 pending orders in the U.S. alone for the Standard Range battery pack. Tesla would want to utilize that pent-up demand and serve them, before the Shanghai Gigafactory starts taking away the supply of SR battery packs.
• There's also the phase-out of the $3,750 federal tax credit at the end of Q2 (end of June) - there's just so much time to capture customers for whom that's an actionable incentive but for whom the current $41,900 price is too high.

I.e. there's a number of production supply and bundling degrees of freedom Tesla has to maintain their 20-25% gross margin target for the Model 3, even after the introduction of the SR variant.

The $39k SR/PUP will be a big seller. With $6k in incentives (state/fed) in many states until June, it would be a good think to introduce in March. We can be pretty sure Tesla makes a profit on this model, even without autopilot, but many people will opt for it as well making it a cash cow. Tesla can sell 2000 of these a week in just the USA market for quite a while too, maybe indefinitely.

 

[Curt Renz]

Speaking of CNBC: Up next, yet more BS about Tesla and Musk. Almost want to turn it off.

"If it bleeds, it leads."

 

[Buckminster]

How does Elon get to 1.5 million vehicles in 2021? Ok let's assume he meant annualized rate at the end of 2021... that means producing ~ 30,000 vehicles / week!

2,000 S+X
12,000 M3
15,000 MY
1,000 Semi
???

Regardless of whether Tesla will meet it, what is Elon planning? My thinking is:
29k per week
2500 s/x
1000 Semi
500 Roadster
1000 Pickup (more in 2022)
10,000 M3
14,000 MY

Elon has mentioned M3 rate of 10k but nothing higher that I remember. It could go higher if GF4 was to come along early enough. 14k will be quite a ramp for MY....

 

[justobuf]

Speaking of CNBC: Up next, yet more BS about Tesla and Musk. Almost want to turn it off.

I have avoided CNBC for last 6 months because of their coverage on TSLA. They don't have a clue what they are talking about and us more than a waste of time.

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

I'm in a similar situation (and also one of the people closely following that forum for more information). Ordered on Dec 21st, invoice #29 (Performance Model 3). Yet still no progress since the early January call telling me I'm among the first deliveries. Some much later orders (late January) have VINs and in some cases even delivered. Today I was told my car is on the 6th ship (though the name they told me doesn't match any of the boats going to Europe), the first time they even told me there is a car for me. Luckily I didn't sell my old car yet.

This is quite frustrating, as there is seemingly no communication and it seems like the EU Tesla staff is at the mercy of some automated processes somewhere in Fremont with no visibility. Some reports were saying that Tesla's system was flagging some customer orders as having some information missing, but this was not visible to the customer, and instead of contacting the customer to request the information the orders were silently put on hold. I've seen similar reports from Norway on Twitter as well, so it's not just a problem with Tesla in Germany.

I will probably not waste another thought on this once I sit in and drive my car, but at the moment it's leaving quite a bad taste. Less dedicated customers than the first months of orders probably won't be as patient.

However, I think it's quite obvious from all these reports and issues that demand is great even with only AWD and Performance available for order. In Germany AWD is not a common feature, so LR-RWD and MR-RWD will produce even more demand.

This is honestly Tesla's biggest problem by far right now. The delivery and purchasing experience is a complete shitshow. And they don't seem to have anyone who can fix it or interest in finding anyone to fix it. It's really not some big giant mystery. Communications and transparency is key.

 

[EVNow]

Elon Musk tweeted, then revised, Tesla financial guidance. He probably shouldn't have.

Even Gene Munster is getting upset with Elon's tweeting

Calling it "financial guidance" is BS, given the context. Objective way to characterize the tweet was - a confusion in annualized vs full year rough production number over a decade.

 

[Tslynk67]

Gene Munster is a disingenuous "bull" just like you are. Why do you think CNBC welcomes him with open arms? He never has anything positive to say about Tesla

Nice first post, welcome!

 

[abasile]

Speaking of CNBC: Up next, yet more BS about Tesla and Musk. Almost want to turn it off.

Just do it. Turn it off. You didn't need to watch another Honda commercial anyway.

I'll confess that I picked up a little more TSLA late yesterday, just before the end of extended hours trading. Starting to wonder if, instead of just buying shares outright, one might be better off writing cash-secured puts and "holding" them to expiration. Of course, one would have to be okay with buying 100+ shares at a time; normally, I buy in relatively small increments.