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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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On another note, she bearish af!

And lucky me, I took off my bear suit yesterday. Over the first half of the day :Þ

(did save a small amount of my rollover money for better buying opportunities, and I'm glad I did that... but geez, I could have made a small fortune had I waited until today :Þ)
 
Whatever happened to the Tesla making pickup drivetrain for a major auto manufacturer ? If this was true, would it have to be in the annual report they filed ?
No, the annual report only has to talk about things that happened in the relevant year. They can also choose to talk about stuff in the future, but they don't have to provide any level of detail at all.
 
Just finished reading ”Never split the difference”, a great book about hostage negotation and bargaining. It’s interesting to see Tesla following a pretty similar strategy in the bidding for Maxwell . Also highlighting an interesting part of the dialogue:
On December 14, 2018, Tesla delivered a non-binding letter of intent to Dr. Fink proposing to acquire 100% of the outstanding shares of capital stock of Maxwell for a per share purchase price of $2.35, which represented a premium of 15.2% from the closing price of Maxwell’s stock on December 14, 2018. The purchase price would be paid in shares of Tesla stock based on an exchange ratio to be fixed at the time of signing definitive transaction documents. In addition, Mr. Scelfo requested that Maxwell enter into an exclusivity agreement as it related to a proposed acquisition and delivered a draft to Dr. Fink. Dr. Fink then promptly informed the Maxwell board of directors of the letter of intent and interest from Tesla.
On December 16, 2018, Dr. Fink called Mr. Scelfo to inform him that the Maxwell board of directors would be holding a telephonic meeting on December 18, 2018, primarily for the purpose of approving a transaction unrelated to the Tesla non-binding letter of intent, and the Maxwell board of directors would also likely consider the Tesla offer at this meeting, but that based on Maxwell’s standalone plan and the moderate proposed premium to the Maxwell trading price represented by Tesla’s initial offer, the offer presented by Tesla would likely not be accepted by the Maxwell board of directors. Dr. Fink and Mr. Scelfo agreed that an in-person meeting between representatives of Tesla and Maxwell would be helpful for Tesla to further understand Maxwell’s products, technology and operations and the benefits of a potential acquisition transaction and allowing it to offer a higher valuation.
Between December 17 and December 19, 2018, Dr. Fink had numerous calls and email correspondence with Mr. Scelfo in order to prepare for an in- person meeting on December 20, 2018. Dr. Fink also informed Mr. Scelfo that the Maxwell board of directors declined Tesla’s offer, and that Tesla would need to increase its offer price to interest the Maxwell Board in a sale transaction.
On December 20, 2018, senior business development and engineering personnel and other members of Tesla management met with the CEO, CFO, senior operations personnel and other members of Maxwell management at Maxwell’s headquarters. Maxwell provided Tesla with further information regarding Maxwell’s products, technology and operations for the purpose of assisting Tesla with further analyzing the benefits of a potential acquisition transaction. Representatives of Tesla also provided information regarding Tesla’s programs and particular interest in Maxwell’s business, product lines and operations.
Following the meeting on December 20, 2018, Mr. Scelfo, on behalf of Tesla, delivered a revised non-binding letter of intent to Dr. Fink to acquire 100% of the outstanding shares of capital stock of Maxwell for a per share purchase price of $3.10, which represented a premium of 56% from the closing price of Maxwell’s stock on December 20, 2018. Other terms of the offer remained the same as the initial letter of intent. Mr. Scelfo also indicated that a decision regarding a potential acquisition of Maxwell by Tesla would have to be reached quickly in order to not delay other important investment decisions at Tesla. Dr. Fink promptly provided the revised letter of intent to the Maxwell board of directors along with an update of his discussions with Mr. Scelfo.
After the December 22, 2018 Maxwell board of directors meeting, Dr. Fink informed Mr. Scelfo that Tesla’s revised offer was not accepted by the Maxwell board of directors and that the Maxwell board of directors would need a higher price in order to support a sale transaction with Tesla. Dr. Fink informed Mr. Scelfo, however, that he and his team were willing to work with Tesla through the holidays to help Tesla better understand the value that Tesla could realize through an acquisition of the company and further explain why the Maxwell board of directors was seeking a higher valuation.
Between December 23 and December 28, 2018, Dr. Fink had numerous email correspondences with Mr. Scelfo in order to conduct further diligence and discuss the benefits of a potential transaction. During this period, Mr. Scelfo also conveyed that Tesla was no longer interested in a potential strategic commercial arrangement with Maxwell and it would move in a different direction should Maxwell and Tesla be unable to reach an agreement regarding a potential acquisition of the entire capital stock of Maxwell.
After the December 28, 2018 Maxwell board of directors meeting, Dr. Fink contacted Mr. Scelfo via e-mail to discuss why the Maxwell board of directors felt a higher valuation was justified. Dr. Fink also provided Mr. Scelfo with a high-level summary of management’s net present value analysis, as reviewed by the Maxwell board of directors at the meeting earlier in the day. Dr. Fink also provided Mr. Scelfo with buy-in analysis of Maxwell’s larger institutional investors as previously previewed by the Maxwell board of directors. In addition, Dr. Fink reiterated that it was the view of the Maxwell board of directors that a higher value would likely be needed to gain the support of Maxwell’s largest institutional investors. At such time, Dr. Fink indicated to Mr. Scelfo that it was the Maxwell board of directors’ view that it would likely require at least $5.75—$6.00 per share to gain the support of Maxwell’s largest institutional investors.
Between January 3 and January 7, 2019, Dr. Fink had additional email and telephone correspondence with Mr. Scelfo.
On January 7, 2019, Mr. Scelfo, on behalf of Tesla, delivered a revised non-binding letter of intent to Dr. Fink to acquire 100% of the outstanding shares of capital stock of Maxwell for a per share purchase price of $4.35, which represented a premium of 75% from the closing price of Maxwell’s stock on January 7, 2019. The other terms of the offer remained the same as Tesla’s initial letter of intent. Dr. Fink shared the revised non-binding letter of intent with Maxwell’s Strategic Transaction Committee on the morning of January 8, 2019.
In connection with the revised offer, Dr. Fink and Mr. Scelfo agreed to arrange an additional in-person meeting pursuant to which Tesla could meet additional members of the Maxwell team and learn more about Maxwell’s operations, technology and products.
Dr. Fink and Mr. Scelfo continued to communicate via email in between January 7, 2019 and January 10, 2019, and Dr. Fink indicated that Tesla’s latest offer was unlikely to be accepted by the Maxwell board of directors.
On January 11, 2019, senior business development and engineering personnel and other members of Tesla management met with the CEO, CFO, senior operations personnel and other members of Maxwell management and personnel at Maxwell’s headquarters in San Diego. During the meetings, Tesla indicated that members of its management team would be having a technical and business review on the following Monday and an update on negotiations with Maxwell would be provided to Tesla’s Chief Executive Officer and Audit Committee. Tesla made it clear that their latest offer was at the high end of the range in which approval from its Audit Committee had been given. Moreover, Mr. Scelfo indicated that, while Tesla may consider any counter-proposal from Maxwell, any higher proposal from Maxwell may cause Tesla to discontinue discussions and explore any and all alternative solutions available to Tesla, including alternatives that were simultaneously being considered or in development at Tesla.
On January 18, 2019, Mr. Scelfo, on behalf of Tesla, delivered a revised non-binding letter of intent to Dr. Fink. The offer continued to be an acquisition of 100% of the outstanding shares of capital stock of Maxwell. In the non-binding letter of intent, Tesla indicated a new per share purchase price of $4.75. While this was still lower than Maxwell’s initial request of $5.75—$6.00 per share that was discussed with Mr. Scelfo in December, it represented a premium of 66% from the closing price of Maxwell’s stock on January 17, 2019. Tesla indicated it would be amenable to discussing a fixed value construct, subject to a potential mutually agreed to price collar should Tesla share price move outside a certain percentage between signing and closing.

The book recommends a bidding strategy of: 65% 85% 95% 100% of your target. If 66% premium(166% total) was the target the ideal bidding should be premiums of 8%, 41%, 57%, 66%. Not that far from the actual bidding, which likely changed some due to new information and from market fluctuations.
 
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Ok, fair enough, I guess I bought into the clickbait.

What put me off in that interview was an exchange early in the podcast when Cathie Wood explained Ark's outlandish, ultra-bullish estimate for the EV market (just to present the extremes of their thesis) and Elon replied with something like "Yeah, that sounds about right", causing Cathie Wood to go "Really? Wow!", suggesting even she didn't actually believe that target was realistically achievable. Either that or it was some uncontrolled, instinctive butt-kissing.

As an investor, I want a balanced analytical approach rather than what-if, super-optimistic scenarios. But I do appreciate that Elon's way is to get the public excited about possibilities, and it's sometimes tricky to separate that from company-related realistic guidance.

She said, "Really? Wow" because she had not finished framing her statement yet and was expressing the most bullish scenario.
 
Just finished reading ”Never split the difference”, a great book about hostage negotation and bargaining. It’s interesting to see Tesla following a pretty similar strategy in the bidding for Maxwell . Also highlighting an interesting part of the dialgue:

Fascinating exchange, but since when was the word "telephonic" used in the last 100 years??
 
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I'm planning on purchasing more shares in 8 days and I'd love for the share priced to stay where it's at.....come on Elon keep posting.....you know you want to ;)

Yes, I also plan to purchase some more shares later in the month. So have selfish motivations for not wanting the stock price doesn't rise too much just now. But either way, I'm getting some more shares at the end of the month.
 
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She said, "Really? Wow" because she had not finished framing her statement yet and was expressing the most bullish scenario.

My point exactly. When the analyst generally recognised as most bullish on TSLA presents her most-bullish scenario for the growth of the EV market (I believe she mentioned something like 26m EVs sold in 2023, compared to 1.3m last year), and the CEO of Tesla equates that estimate to his median expectation, I bet she was thrown off. That doesn't help the wider investor community to view Elon's statements on guidance as realistic.

I have a sense that Elon expects explosive growth, both in terms of the EV market and Tesla's own production rate, as well as when it comes to rate of development of self-driving AI, and so he doesn't really process the exact numbers and time frames that various analysts throw at him. It's just easier for him to think "yeah, however bullish your model is, the real development rate will probably be even higher". Because he's an incurable optimist and dismisses possible setbacks.
 
There are certaint things that you really nred to investigate yourself.

2 things. Both Japan and Australia lacks tesla cars. Both rich countries. It must be a marketing problem. Aussies might be more interested in a truck. But i thunk japan is a marketing problem.

There's also these huge worry about population decline in japan frim the financial markets. I say good. There's waaay too many ppl here.
 
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No, the annual report only has to talk about things that happened in the relevant year. They can also choose to talk about stuff in the future, but they don't have to provide any level of detail at all.

Which makes sense. You don’t see Apple talking about the devices they’re working on in their annual report. Companies are still allowed to have secrets.
 
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