Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SMAlset]

If you looked at the data dashboard from the county website, the hospital utilization is so low that you can't even see percentage on the chart.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Data Dashboard - Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - County of Santa Clara

While we investors are hoping that manufacturing can reopen in Fremont, there are other real reasons that people lost their revenue cannot wait for 7-14 days. For the same reason that city cannot afford hospitals to get overwhelmed, the city also cannot afford to have people lost their homes, food and basic safety net.

You do know that losing jobs also losing health care, right?
COVID is not the only disease kills people.

Have you checked the food bank in San Jose?

San Jose wants more federal help to feed struggling residents - San José Spotlight
"The city is serving an average of 510,213 meals a day to Santa Clara County residents, up from 360,213 meals last week, he added, totaling more than 2.5 million meals across the county per week." That's 41% increase in a week.

Let's say, people receive 3 meals a day, that's 0.8 million people under poverty that depends on food bank, which is 41.5% of the entire Santa Clara County population.

At this rate, we will have famine problem, not the virus problem. Also the rate of food bank demand is exponential -- almost doubling every week. Unlike COVID where most people can recover in two weeks, people fell into poverty will need to continue on food bank support for months or years to come.

In my view, in the current dire situation continuing holding economic hostage in the name of public health is violation of human right. This is human created poverty and famine, not because of we have bad climates or agriculture production.

I’m just stating what’s been in the Briefings and in the virus reporting and why, given what’s been out there, why I don’t think anyone should be surprised Tesla doesn’t yet have the go ahead to open. I think everyone is well aware of job loss, food availability etc. We own two Teslas, have Tesla stock and are about to be getting Solar and Powerwalls through Tesla which has been on a 2-month hold due to covid, so understand the investor concerns as well. Investors should however be pleased Tesla has been so well positioned that they are seen as a bright spot for the future by a lot more people who poo-pooed them and the SP is where it is right now. Other companies and manufacturers aren’t fairing as well. I have very strong feelings that Tesla will be doing extremely well down the road given all their innovation, expansion in multiple fields and how happy people are with their products.

 

[Johnny Ma]

Probably a topic for the Covid thread (and Moderator move if you see fit) but I don’t think that there is no one in them but more like the high paying surgeries etc. are postponed because the beds have been taken by covid patients and ICUs were more or less commandeered for them. Also non-emergency procedures were postponed due to the risk of covid infection from being in the hospital with covid patients. I honestly have no idea who is paying for the hospital visits of people who were admitted for covid. Private insurance, state funds, federal government funds? Estates of the dead if there’s money there? I know I’ve read accounts of people who didn’t go to the hospital who clearly would have benefited from early admission and treatment because they either didn’t have insurance or knew even with insurance their portion could be catastrophic to their family’s finances.

I work in healthcare in a hard hit area. This is incorrect. I can't reveal numbers, but internal email sent out saying we urgently needed to reopen because, *surprise*, when you shutdown healthcare for all reasons but COVID-19, lots of people die. The numbers are really, really bad.
I don't pray, but maybe I'll start doing so - praying that Lord Elon does the right thing and continues to defy the shutdown order.

 

[SMAlset]

Not if everyone is broke.

Someone or institution or community will bear the expense in one way or another so there is always a cost to pay.

 

[feigen66]

I work in healthcare in a hard hit area. This is incorrect. I can't reveal numbers, but internal email sent out saying we urgently needed to reopen because, *surprise*, when you shutdown healthcare for all reasons but COVID-19, lots of people die. The numbers are really, really bad.
I don't pray, but maybe I'll start doing so - praying that Lord Elon does the right thing and continues to defy the shutdown order.

Same here. I am also working in healthcare area.

Maybe it's not enough to convince anyone, but I am also not sure why people who do not work for hospitals kept citing imaginary scenarios where we have other fire needs to put off now.

The media portraits a very different view from the ground zero.

 

[Rarity]

As for hospitalizations in the Bay area the Covid thread looking back would be a good source to answer that. I only was periodically checking on Santa Clara Counties and on April 23 SCC had 191 hospitalizations from covid. Not sure if that was the peak and it’s fluctuated below that and backwards over the weeks. Right now SCC stands at 113 as of May 7.

Given almost 2,000 acute beds in Santa Clara County, the county's hospitals were never filled with covid-19 patients.

I think it's safe to assume that Alameda County is similar.

 

[feigen66]

Someone or institution or community will bear the expense in one way or another.

We are paying the expense already, not the reason you might think.
California faces $54B budget deficit

 

[elasalle]

6M views already for the Joe Rogan/ Elon interview from yesterday ..

 

[Sanny]

Can we have anti COVID thread just next to that another one? I need somewhere to complain from time to time to keep my sanity.

 

[skybluecgreen]

I think some people heard “manufacturing” and stopped listening and I can understand if Elon plugged his ears at that point , but I think he knew differently. If one listened to everything Newsom said during that briefing, he made it clear this was small business manufacturing to support some of the businesses that were allowed to open. It was to be an opening that was slow and careful for workers and customers, and it was followed up with it was still up to the local health jurisdictions as to what numbers and trends they were seeing in their communities and whether their businesses met the guidelines on plans for when they did get to open. There were health/safety guidelines that were further discussed during the briefing. I know people were hoping to hear Tesla could open already but I personally never heard anything that Newsom said, taken in totality, as indicating it was a given or likely to open yet. I always thought it was more likely mid- to end of month timeframe or possibly later. Tesla’s workforce is huge compared to many local community businesses and will bring in workers from many cities in the Bay area and elsewhere. That kind of people movement is troublesome to officials who do not and maybe can’t afford to see their hospitals filled again with very sick virus patients. Remember those hospital costs are going to have to be borne by someone.

You guys do realize that if with this beginning of lifting if there is an alarming rise in cases and hospitalizations over the next 7-14 days that we’re likely in a hold pattern. The health spokespeople and mayors for the Bay area cities have pretty much indicated that as well.

I never heard the word 'small' when it came to manufacturing. Initially he said 'retail' and associated manufacturing. He listed some retail business examples like florists. Later, he listed auto dealerships as allowed to reopen in Phase 2. He said that they were actually already included in being allowed but that they were now listed separately. So car dealerships were already part of 'retail' and thus the associated manufacturing of them would be allowed as well. That's my interpretation.

I believe that under Newsom's guidelines Tesla would be allowed if not for Alameda dragging their feet.

Alameda is making it clear that their stricter orders supercede Newsom's. For any lawyers out there, is this truly enforceable or does Tesla have a legal right to follow Newsom's guidelines if they wish?

 

[SMAlset]

Same here. I am also working in healthcare area.

Maybe it's not enough to convince anyone, but I am also not sure why people who do not work for hospitals kept citing imaginary scenarios where we have other fire needs to put off now.

The media portraits a very different view from the ground zero.

So question do you think the SF Bay area officials are taking this very cautionary approach because they simply don’t want to see this area with as many dead and hospitalized as NYC area? I certainly wouldn’t want to be working in the hospital there and bearing that burden of care for so many infected people. My heart goes out to all those healthcare workers out there for what they have experienced. Also to all those families ripped apart both physically and financially.

 

[Big Dog]

I never heard the word 'small' when it came to manufacturing. Initially he said 'retail' and associated manufacturing. He listed some retail business examples like florists. Later, he listed auto dealerships as allowed to reopen in Phase 2. He said that they were actually already included in being allowed but that they were now listed separately. So car dealerships were already part of 'retail' and thus the associated manufacturing of them would be allowed as well. That's my interpretation.

I believe that under Newsom's guidelines Tesla would be allowed if not for Alameda dragging their feet.

Alameda is making it clear that their stricter orders supercede Newsom's. For any lawyers out there, is this truly enforceable or does Tesla have a legal right to follow Newsom's guidelines if they wish?

Newsom has made clear that counties have final authority of what and when to open, so his Order is more like a suggestion.

 

[Johnny Ma]

So question do you think the SF Bay area officials are taking this very cautionary approach because they simply don’t want to see this area with as many dead and hospitalized as NYC area? I certainly wouldn’t want to be working in the hospital there and bearing that burden of care for so many infected people. My heart goes out to all those healthcare workers out there for what they have experienced. Also to all those families ripped apart both physically and financially.

You didn't ask me, but here's my opinion anyway. NYC was hit very hard because different areas have different demographics and healthcare systems. It's not surprise. Look at Germany vs. Italy.

I think you're correct, that they don't want to bear the burden of dealing with so many cases/deaths. But the thing is, strict lockdown only works to stamp out the disease if it's not already widespread, and it's clearly already widespread. On top of that, these county public health officials are not remotely qualified to make decisions outside of their areas of expertise. They should be advising on what to do, given that people will die due to economic hardships and other effects we can't even think of if we stay shutdown like this for a longer period of time. Every 1% increase in unemployment results in a 1% increase in suicides.

 

[powertoold]

I'm all in for Tesla to restart production with several of the execs approving it. Alameda Sheriff office can go and try to arrest whoever they think is responsible. I'll drive to the factory and document it if I'm off

 

[Big Time]

Been reading this forum for thousands of pages......thought I’d join up.

good day today for TSLA.

Been invested 5 years, always a surprise and what a ride! But like Ol blue eyes says, The best is yet to come.

 

[feigen66]

As for enforcement, the next few weeks federal court will be quite busy.

Something caught my eyes that Professional Beauty Federation of California sues Gov. Newsom, with a right-leaning law firm:
Barbers, beauticians plan to sue Newsom over stay-at-home order

This is interesting because:

If we look at the lobbying profile of Professional Beauty Assn of the congress bills:
Professional Beauty Assn Bills Lobbied

It's very much Democrat leaning according to the co-sponsors:
https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/1/cosponsors?q={"search":["H.R.1"]}&r=1&s=1&searchResultViewType=expanded&KWICView=false (D235, R1)

Cosponsors - H.R.1349 - 116th Congress (2019-2020): Small Business Tax Fairness and Compliance Simplification Act (D16, R6)

The PBFC homepage has a few pictures with Democrat reps :
Professional Beauty Federation of California – A Voice for Beauty in California

What that means is that the members of PBFC are so financially desperate that they have no choice but sue once was their political allies.

Tesla is not the only one dissent the current situations. There are many lobbying groups that were once Democrat friendly are now changing their side.

Currently the firm alone have 6 cases against Newsom (1 new case per week): Cases - The Center For American Liberty

If this rate keeps up, the next few weeks the federal courts will be filled with Stay-at-Home sues.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Fri, May 08, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

VWAP: $813.87
Volume: 16,023,322
Traded: $13,040,836,179.02 ($13.04 B)

Closing SP / VWAP: 100.67%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)​

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 41.0% (42nd Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 51.9% (54th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)

Comment: "Cruising at FL820"

*Main Session numbers approximate due to EDGAR data dropout @ 15:59

 

[Sanny]

You didn't ask me, but here's my opinion anyway. NYC was hit very hard because different areas have different demographics and healthcare systems. It's not surprise. Look at Germany vs. Italy.

I think you're correct, that they don't want to bear the burden of dealing with so many cases/deaths. But the thing is, strict lockdown only works to stamp out the disease if it's not already widespread, and it's clearly already widespread. On top of that, these county public health officials are not remotely qualified to make decisions outside of their areas of expertise. They should be advising on what to do, given that people will die due to economic hardships and other effects we can't even think of if we stay shutdown like this for a longer period of time. Every 1% increase in unemployment results in a 1% increase in suicides.

I think it is explained by media laser focus on Covid deaths and forgetting about everything else. Any person dies from Covid - it goes on that politician record, other causes - who cares now, and who will count later, it is all fuzzy. Same why it is generally accepted to publicly blame Sweden for what they are doing - current deaths are visible, everything else is too complicated to understand and even more complicated to write about.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So question do you think the SF Bay area officials are taking this very cautionary approach because they simply don’t want to see this area with as many dead and hospitalized as NYC area? I certainly wouldn’t want to be working in the hospital there and bearing that burden of care for so many infected people. My heart goes out to all those healthcare workers out there for what they have experienced. Also to all those families ripped apart both physically and financially.

Are you actually reading what healthcare workers are posting in this thread, today? Its not an issue of lack of compassion for those that seek to reopen the economy. Critical care beds in Alameda County are not full of covid-19 patients, but real people are dying from lack of care for their other conditions, care that is being delayed or undelivered because of the Alameda county's blanket shutdown.

They are NOT balancing risks, IMO. They are overreacting to a single headline issue, while downplaying or minimizing the real damage their policies are causing residents.

The fact that Alameda spent half of their conference call dealing with a single company shows how media focused their response has been. What causes that, if not some external pressure to keep Tesla shut down?

The County's policy is not reasonable. Tesla returning to production does NOT endanger lives. Killing the business of a major employer in the region will CERTAINLY result in negative outcomes for the 40+K people affected.

 

[Creekstalker]

That kind of people movement is troublesome to officials who do not and maybe can’t afford to see their hospitals filled again with very sick virus patients.

You reference Bay Area hospitals being filled again. When were they filled the first time?

 

[Prunesquallor]

Are you actually reading what healthcare workers are posting in this tread, today? Critical care beds in Alameda County are not full of covid-19 patients, but real people are dying from lack of care for their other conditions, care that is being delayed or undelivered because of the Alameda county's blanket shutdown.

They are NOT balancing risks, IMO. They are overreacting to a single headline issue, while downplaying or minimizing the real damage their policies are causing residents.

The fact that Alameda spent half of their conference call dealing with a single company shows how media focused their response has been. What causes that, if not some external pressure to keep Tesla shut down?

The County's policy is not reasonable. Tesla returning to production does NOT endanger lives. Killing the business of a major employer in the region will CERTAINLY result in negative outcomes for the 40+K people affected.

The Mayor's attitude toward Tesla was really puzzling. She seemed to treat it as a minor annoyance and I got the impression she really didn’t have much understanding of what went on there (she was very knowledgeable about the progress on the homeless encampment, however).

I really would not be surprised to see a trend over the next several years of a diminished role of Fremont in US production. I think the new US Giga may take on a much larger role.