Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hacer]

EXIT before the HERD

Are you saying flee the country? Where would you go?

 

[jerry33]

The Mayor's attitude toward Tesla was really puzzling. She seemed to treat it as a minor annoyance and I got the impression she really didn’t have much understanding of what went on there

My assumption is that she knows what the oil companies told her.

 

[Johnny Ma]

I really would not be surprised to see a trend over the next several years of a diminished role of Fremont in US production. I think the new US Giga may take on a much larger role.

I've been thinking about this a lot. Others have pointed out that the geographic area has a large base of talent to draw from. I think we'll see Fremont become automated more quickly than other Gigafactories, but I don't know that that means a diminished role in production.

 

[wipster]

I got back into TSLA today. While I was out this week, I played three stocks to do well after their earnings reports. They were companies actually benefiting from the coranavirus lockdown. I got lucky with all of them, ATVI, BYND and PTON, then quickly cashed out. Today I also bought IIVI for its earnings report coming on Monday, and SFM which reported its earnings on Tuesday but is strong technically.

Glad to have you back Curt! But aren't the capital gains taxes on these short-term trades killing you? Just curious, especially with all the TSLA sell offs and buybacks you've done recently. I realize it's none of my business, but unless I see specific reasons to sell, that's why I'm a holder not a trader.

 

[MC3OZ]

I've been thinking about this a lot. Others have pointed out that the geographic area has a large base of talent to draw from. I think we'll see Fremont become automated more quickly than other Gigafactories, but I don't know that that means a diminished role in production.

I've been thinking about a comment on the latest Limiting Factor video about the tab-less battery.

He expects Tesla to tap design talent in all Giga/Terra-factory locations, that is starting with the Chinese designing a compact model.
Tesla would be crazy not to tap German design/engineering talent.
And there is lots of good talent in Texas and smart people elsewhere in the US.

Having multiple teams working in parallel on different projects gets more done, US teams can always review and improve the work of German and Chinese teams... A lot of work is CAD or software which is easy to transfer...

The Bay area has a lot of talented software developers, Tesla definitely wants to tap that talent on an on going basis.

IMO Fremont is close to maxed out, for now Tesla will get more bang for the buck investing in new factories with clean designs.
In turn that streamlines logistics and taps talent in new areas, all of which allows Tesla to keep diversifying and expanding their product mix.

There isn't much wrong with Fremont, it can still churn out cars, perhaps the paint-shop is the biggest problem.
So at present any investment in Fremont is unlikely to yield major benefits...

Perhaps in future when Tesla has multiple bigger better located and more efficient factories, they can use Fremont to experiment with improved production techniques and more automation. IMO that is 3-5 years into the future...

 

[Curt Renz]

Glad to have you back Curt! But aren't the capital gains taxes on these short-term trades killing you? Just curious, especially with all the TSLA sell offs and buybacks you've done recently. I realize it's none of my business, but unless I see specific reasons to sell, that's why I'm a holder not a trader.

The government let's me keep most of the gains. No complaints. At my age much of what the government doesn't take will go to my heirs.

 

[Big Dog]

I'm just chuckling at all of these comments that the county's decision doesn't make sense, is not logical, is confusing, is..... None of the above. Such decisions are commonplace. Growth is not welcome by the NIMBY's in the Bay Area.

California is just a really bad place to do business, particularly manufacturing. It's why manufacturers have been leaving for years. Not sure why this is such a hard concept.

(Off to go wait for all the disagrees from those that don't live in this state.)

 

[wipster]

The government let's me keep most of the gains. No complaints. At my age much of what the government doesn't take will go to my heirs.

Copacetic my friend! If there is a good reason to get older, that's close to the top! Trade away (although I might have held PTON and BYND a bit longer...)!

 

[srius]

You didn't ask me, but here's my opinion anyway. NYC was hit very hard because different areas have different demographics and healthcare systems. It's not surprise. Look at Germany vs. Italy.

I think you're correct, that they don't want to bear the burden of dealing with so many cases/deaths. But the thing is, strict lockdown only works to stamp out the disease if it's not already widespread, and it's clearly already widespread. On top of that, these county public health officials are not remotely qualified to make decisions outside of their areas of expertise. They should be advising on what to do, given that people will die due to economic hardships and other effects we can't even think of if we stay shutdown like this for a longer period of time. Every 1% increase in unemployment results in a 1% increase in suicides.

Well said. These country health officials are not elected, they don't have as much pressure from the economic impacts. Besides, most bay area companies do fine with work at home.
There are actually 6 criteria for loosening the restrictions. The three directly related to Corvid-19 spread and hospital capacity are all checked, and the three not yet checked are all tied to bureaucratic operations (not enough testing, not enough staff for contact tracing, and not enough PPE).
Bay Area has 6 criteria for loosening coronavirus restrictions. Here’s where each county is now

 

[Tim S]

The Mayor's attitude toward Tesla was really puzzling. She seemed to treat it as a minor annoyance and I got the impression she really didn’t have much understanding of what went on there (she was very knowledgeable about the progress on the homeless encampment, however).

I really would not be surprised to see a trend over the next several years of a diminished role of Fremont in US production. I think the new US Giga may take on a much larger role.

Tesla is in the city of Fremont, not Alameda. They are both in Alameda County. The mayor of the city of Alameda has no jurisdiction over Tesla.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Copacetic my friend! If there is a good reason to get older, that's close to the top! Trade away (although I might have held PTON and BYND a bit longer...)!

BYND is a long term hold for me. Just as TSLA is the future of sustainable energy/transport, plant based is the future of sustainable food.

 

[Johnny Ma]

I'm just chuckling at all of these comments that the county's decision doesn't make sense, is not logical, is confusing, is..... None of the above. Such decisions are commonplace. Growth is not welcome by the NIMBY's in the Bay Area.

California is just a really bad place to do business, particularly manufacturing. It's why manufacturers have been leaving for years. Not sure why this is such a hard concept.

(Off to go wait for all the disagrees from those that don't live in this state.)

Don't understand why that's funny to you. It's not just California. It's in many counties in the US. Lots of "we can open up to level 1 if we meet conditions A, level 2 for conditions B,..." with no recognition that these conditions A, B,etc, might not be possible. Or that reopening would immediately require return to level 1, because conditions would worsen.

I don't think you even have to stop ALL economic to kill the world. If we stay in lockdown like we are until the end of the year, at least the West is done. And that will ripple through everything.

This has to do with Alameda County, and Dr. Pan's ignorance, because we're talking about TSLA. It applies to much more than just TSLA and California.

 

[StealthP3D]

Someone or institution or community will bear the expense in one way or another so there is always a cost to pay.

My point was, if you're going to worry about how to pay for the healthcare, it's a lot easier to pay for it when everyone is not unemployed! Otherwise, the cost gets added onto everyone else bills and hospitals go bankrupt. It's the exact opposite of what you were saying - that the cost of the healthcare becomes a bigger problem if we open the economy back up.

 

[MP3Mike]

You reference Bay Area hospitals being filled again. When were they filled the first time?

Most hospitals try to keep usage in the 80-90% range. I don't know what it has been in the Bay Area, but in Oregon with the SAH orders it has been running around ~30%, which isn't enough to operate without losing money. So they are looking at having to do pay cuts, furloughs, or layoffs. And it isn't because people don't need care, it is that they aren't allowed to get the care they need. (Or in some cases that they just want.)

 

[Prunesquallor]

Tesla is in the city of Fremont, not Alameda. They are both in Alameda County. The mayor of the city of Alameda has no jurisdiction over Tesla.

You are absolutely correct. My mistake.

 

[Green Pete]

BYND is a long term hold for me. Just as TSLA is the future of sustainable energy/transport, plant based is the future of sustainable food.

I have some calls in bynd that are doing well. But frankly their food is very unhealthy. I think it's just a matter of time before lab grown meat is a thing and beyond is out of business

 

[Boomer19]

Who do they arrest if it's a public company? Us shareholders?

test me test me, why don’t you arrest me

 

[Creekstalker]

test me test me, why don’t you arrest me

Great tune.

 

[JRP3]

But frankly their food is very unhealthy.

Not compared to ground beef, which it's intended to replace. Sodium is a bit higher but not an issue if the rest of your food doesn't have excessive sodium.
We can discuss further here if you wish BYND Beyond Meat out of main

 

[Sancho]

BYND is a long term hold for me. Just as TSLA is the future of sustainable energy/transport, plant based is the future of sustainable food.

Same for me. My BYND position is now as large as my TSLA position.