Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[woodisgood]

As a Californian, I would really hate to lose Tesla. But the truth is the region was never going to support Tesla the way other states cater to their largest manufacturers. California loves the Silicon Valley side of Tesla but doesn’t love the manufacturing, doesn’t take pride in it. A lot of it comes down to socioeconomic politics in the Bay Area. This is not a region that loves/cherishes/has pride in/cares about its blue collar workforce/enterprises. Surprising considering how obvious it is that the green revolution (which CA is leading) is going to require significant investments in a new breed of manufacturing.

Elon’s right. Making stuff isn’t appreciated the way it used to, and it needs to be again if we are going to solve some of humanity’s greatest challenges. We can’t code ourselves out of climate change.

Moving out of CA will greatly benefit Tesla in the long run. It will be interesting to see if the markets will see it that way immediately on Monday, or simply label it as more chaos/instability around Tesla.

 

[mars_or_bust]

I must admit I am very much in awe as to how Elon is putting pressure at all levels for Freemont to reopen. Truly a great CEO. Even though I disagree on some of his covid 19 beliefs, he is very much right that the factory can be reopened safely, and must be reopened.

 

[EV forever]

wow this is much pretty much saying Tesla has the green light?

The mayor is making it known publicly which side of the fence she stands on. Her city is going to be crushed by Tesla leaving because the county is being ridiculous.

Yep. The Fremont city mayor is distancing herself from the county decision and making it clear that the City of Fremont would be fine with Tesla opening up immediately. This entire debacle is squarely on Dr. Pan's head.

 

[Xd85]

Alameda county responded. Unclear if it adds

ALAMEDA COUNTY -- The Alameda County Health Care Services Agency and the Public Health Department have been communicating directly and working closely with the Tesla team on the ground in Fremont. This has been a collaborative, good faith effort to develop and implement a safety plan that allows for reopening while protecting the health and well-being of the thousands of employees who travel to and from work at Tesla’s factory.
The team at Tesla has been responsive to our guidance and recommendations, and we look forward to coming to an agreement on an appropriate safety plan very soon.
We greatly value and support the important role of small and large businesses to our local economy and our communities. We appreciate that our residents and businesses have made tremendous sacrifices and that together we have been able to save lives and protect community health in our region. We need to continue to work together so those sacrifices don’t go to waste and that we maintain our gains. It is our collective responsibility to move through the phases of reopening and loosening the restrictions of the Shelter-in-Place Order in the safest way possible, guided by data and science.
We do not have any further comment and will not be taking any requests for interviews.

 

[woodisgood]

At the very least, perhaps the County will now prioritize finding a solution for Tesla. Up to this point I think they just weren’t getting around to it.

 

[phantasms]

SpaceX and Tesla are literally the #1 and #2 destinations for graduating engineers. Talented engineers will follow wherever they go and they will get their choice of the litter.

...And it's because they are companies with a mission beyond just "Make a shiny golden parachute for management". They make real, cool products that the engineers themselves want to see made, while most of SV (let's be honest now) basically makes sanctioned malware for advertisers, building private surveillance systems that would even make Orwell blush.

Quoted for excellence.

 

[Quesder]

Unfortunately not; Fremont doesn't have the authority to overrule Alameda county when it comes to the shutdown. But this does put massive pressure on Alameda county to reconsider their stance.

Yeah, I hope the pressure from top (state) and bottom (city) can give the county and quick and short squeeze to give in.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Alameda county responded. Unclear if it adds

ALAMEDA COUNTY -- The Alameda County Health Care Services Agency and the Public Health Department have been communicating directly and working closely with the Tesla team on the ground in Fremont. This has been a collaborative, good faith effort to develop and implement a safety plan that allows for reopening while protecting the health and well-being of the thousands of employees who travel to and from work at Tesla’s factory.
The team at Tesla has been responsive to our guidance and recommendations, and we look forward to coming to an agreement on an appropriate safety plan very soon.
We greatly value and support the important role of small and large businesses to our local economy and our communities. We appreciate that our residents and businesses have made tremendous sacrifices and that together we have been able to save lives and protect community health in our region. We need to continue to work together so those sacrifices don’t go to waste and that we maintain our gains. It is our collective responsibility to move through the phases of reopening and loosening the restrictions of the Shelter-in-Place Order in the safest way possible, guided by data and science.
We do not have any further comment and will not be taking any requests for interviews.

Wouldn't be surprised if Elon responds to that in a tweet basically saying "We've tried to cater to your guidelines. We've laid out safety protocols that go beyond your guidelines. You either let us open on "X" day or we move forward with our relocation plans"

Once Elon's got someone on the ropes, I don't see him relenting

 

[EV forever]

Fremont Statement of Fremont mayor on Tesla situation:

“As the local shelter-in-place order continues without provisions for major manufacturing activity, such as Tesla, to resume, I am growing concerned about the potential implications for our regional economy. We know many essential businesses have proven they can successfully operate using strict safety and social distancing practices. I strongly believe these same practices could be possible for other manufacturing businesses, especially those that are so critical to our employment base. The City encourages the County to engage with our local businesses to come up with acceptable guidelines for re-opening our local economy. As we have done for over a decade, the City is prepared to support Tesla as soon as they are able to resume automobile manufacturing operations and are committed to a thoughtful, balanced approach to this effort that remains safe for our Fremont community.”
​

Seems like Elons approach of playing hardball is paying off

Also, neighboring city Palo Alto mayor

 

[Prunesquallor]

Alameda county responded. Unclear if it adds

ALAMEDA COUNTY -- The Alameda County Health Care Services Agency and the Public Health Department have been communicating directly and working closely with the Tesla team on the ground in Fremont. This has been a collaborative, good faith effort to develop and implement a safety plan that allows for reopening while protecting the health and well-being of the thousands of employees who travel to and from work at Tesla’s factory.
The team at Tesla has been responsive to our guidance and recommendations, and we look forward to coming to an agreement on an appropriate safety plan very soon.
We greatly value and support the important role of small and large businesses to our local economy and our communities. We appreciate that our residents and businesses have made tremendous sacrifices and that together we have been able to save lives and protect community health in our region. We need to continue to work together so those sacrifices don’t go to waste and that we maintain our gains. It is our collective responsibility to move through the phases of reopening and loosening the restrictions of the Shelter-in-Place Order in the safest way possible, guided by data and science.
We do not have any further comment and will not be taking any requests for interviews.

Translation: "We can’t agree. We're taking credit for the low infection/death rate. Leave us alone."

 

[MP3Mike]

but there are ways for influential people like Elon to contact other influential people (Newsom) and get the wheels greased.

What makes you think Elon hasn't already tried that. Newsom has already punted the ball...

 

[EV forever]

Unfortunately not; Fremont doesn't have the authority to overrule Alameda county when it comes to the shutdown. But this does put massive pressure on Alameda county to reconsider their stance.

But, Fremont city can make a decision that they will take no action if Tesla opens and continues car production. After all, the local police are expected to enforce the restrictions, they simply won't. What is the county going to do, send state troopers?

 

[phantasms]

But, Fremont city can make a decision that they will take no action if Tesla opens and continues car production. After all, the local police are expected to enforce the restrictions, they simply won't. What is the county going to do, send state troopers?

Well what is the police situation there? Obviously the county wouldn’t send state. Where I grew up it was the county that had the police. Where I live now it’s the town. What’s the situation in Teslaland?

 

[Xd85]

Fremont Police as at least 1 S85

 

[printf42]

The mayor is making it known publicly which side of the fence she stands on. Her city is going to be crushed by Tesla leaving because the county is being ridiculous.

Actually City of Palo Alto is weeping in the corner right now, they did nothing wrong, and is about to lose Tesla HQ because of a bad neighbor.

 

[phantasms]

I went from nervous about this in the morning to now convinced the county and state will be offering incentives for them to stay. lol

Elon = The Blade

 

[kbeckley]

May not be a popular post given the mood of the forum...slight weekend off topic but salient to the long term health of Tesla I think.

It is unfortunately necessary to state one's bonefides on this board these days so... Been a share holder since basically IPO...Continued to buy...never sold a share... been a fan of the company since Eberhardt (poorly) ran it... Defended Elon endlessly over the years... sold enough Teslas to get some nice referral gifts... still drive my Signature model S (waiting on plaid) and dear wife drives an X... it is all about the mission... blah blah blah.

So... sad to see Elon moving the headquarters out of California (nowhere near to where I live). California is still the reservoir of the best engineering talent (especially software) in the US. Elon often says that this is the most important thing - exceptional engineering talent. People live in California for many reasons and clearly for many the up sides (coastal, cosmopolitan, temperate etc) outweigh the negatives (high pop density, higher taxes, impossible housing costs). I do think the factory will not be moving for a long time because Tesla needs to add manufacturing for ever not shift manufacturing.

Full disclosure, I am also biased against Texas which has been nothing but hostile to Tesla and does not 'deserve' Tesla. Texas wins because of its population (which often wins these things). I also look at Texas as being the Canadian equivalent of Alberta. Alberta and Texas are petrol states that love to extol their fiscal rectitude and 'live and let live' ideals while the resource (and oil is almost literally the 'mother' of all resources) royalties roll in. I believe Texas would both be governed very differently (i.e. like everyone else) if oil was not the base of the economy. I would love to hear (in a civil manner) from Texans correcting my misconceptions. In my former telecom days I visited Richardson Tx regularly and there was certainly excellent tech there but nothing compared to California. Even SpaceX is in Texas because that is as far south as you can go in the continental US - to think otherwise is to misunderstand orbital dynamics.

Perhaps a terrible parallel, but not so sure Boeing has been served well my moving its head office to Chicago. Anyway Tesla is leading the EV world BECAUSE of California (talent and regulatory environment) not despite it. Just look at their sales and tech lead. Californians can look at this 2 ways: screw you Tesla or screw you California government - both will happen. The former might be less inclined to buy a Tesla.

Anyway I am all about the mission (the financial gains have been a sweet bonus) and I feel this move does not help Tesla in the long run. Perhaps they will leave the core engineering team in California - that would be a smart decision.

Phew...having said all that I do think the factory could and should open right away - they clearly proved that in Shanghai. However calling the Dr Pan unelected (why should she be and why is that relevant?) and incompetent is petty. She may be incompetent but public shaming is rarely productive.

I read a lot of "Go Elon - you show them" rah rah on this board but Tesla needs to be where the talent is, and as of today that is still California. This may be the first decision that Elon has made that I do not feel is in the long term interest of the company. Dearly hope I am wrong - he needs to be right. Covid will be a blip in the great Tesla story moving the headquarters in a fit of pique might not.

 

[Captkerosene]

I posted this a year ago and got 14 "disagrees:"

People don't hate Teslas, they hate Tesla owners. The car has become associated with liberal politics. Much the same way Harley was associated with the Hell's Angels. This is an INVESTMENT board and people can't stop posting about global warming armageddon, immigration and how much they hate Trump. Is it your goal to sell Teslas and make money or advance political agendas? Alienating half the population is not the way to grow the brand. Tesla is trying to cast a wide net and many posters on this board are hindering instead of helping their efforts. So when somebody keys a Tesla understand that it wasn't the car they wanted to hurt, it was the owner.

Now the board is condemning government overreach and cheering a move to Texas.

Only explanation I have for the change is that the posters are a lot richer now.

 

[woodisgood]

Actually City of Palo Alto is weeping in the corner right now, they did nothing wrong, and is about to lose Tesla HQ because of a bad neighbor.

Entirely different county too. Wonder if SC County would have treated Tesla differently. That being said, the Bay Area counties have kind of banded together since none of them individually knew what the hell to do.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Wouldn't be surprised if Elon responds to that in a tweet basically saying "We've tried to cater to your guidelines. We've laid out safety protocols that go beyond your guidelines. You either let us open on "X" day or we move forward with our relocation plans"

Once Elon's got someone on the ropes, I don't see him relenting

The factory will likely stay for the next few years. Tesla has invested too much capital in it and too many jobs/lives are tied to it. But they will probably not expand it any further (also for lack of space, earthquake risk, high wages). And eventually, in 5-8 years, the production lines will move to a new, much more efficient giga- or terafactory in another, less expensive part of the country.

HQ is definitely gone though (although that could be largely symbolic and involve just a few dozen people).