Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

It's not about lobbying. A politician getting paid to continue to run is one thing, they need a platform to run on. If the politician sees their county/state bleeding jobs, there's not enough money in the world that can get you to win that state.

Do we live in the same country ? Look at all those 10+ term congressmen from CDs that are bleeding jobs.

BTW, the way the system works is - you get congressmen who have little interest in a particular bill - because it doesn't directly affect their CD or politics to support the bill.

Also, Tesla needs CA politicians to be vocally supporting them all the time. This is perhaps where their lobbying efforts fail the most. Both Feinstein and Harris are fairly powerful, for eg.

 

[TradingInvest]

Supposedly EVs are a big deal in the trade negotiations. I have seen this stated by the commerce secretary. However, for whatever reason, this is not covered in the news. I am expecting a surprise on the upside for EVs once some of the trade deals fall into place.

There were talks that Trade barriers will be removed. In this case, I think the 15% tariff on EVs will drop to near zero at some point. When this is enacted, it will be very positive for Tesla. Although Tesla will produce in Shanghai, that's only for low end Model 3 and Y. Model S, X and high end 3, Y will still be imported for a few years.

 

[AudubonB]

You know the old (USA) custom - once you've paid off the balance - of burning your house mortgage?

Well, I think I now know why Mr Musk invented that NotAFlameThrower:

Elon Musk turns to Morgan Stanley to finance 5 California mansions

$61 MILLION!!!!!!!! "I think you're gonna need a bigger match", someone must have told him.

 

[Zaxxon]

Well it really did share a lot. The X/S share basically the same batteries, motors, software and electronics. They made the body hella complicated with the falcon wing doors and it probably shares zero body parts overall.

Right, very little in the way of parts outside of the battery, whose ramp was Panasonic's responsibility. The 3/Y are an entirely different animal.

 

[EVNow]

Agreed, and since i'm one that generally throws water at the 'this time it's different' line of commentary, I thought I should say so. It really is different:

Roadster --> Model S: No comparison. Totally different vehicle, Tesla's first 'real' vehicle made fully in-house.
Model S --> Model X: Minimal comparison. Tesla originally said they were going to build the X off of the S platform but that... didn't happen. Much at all.
Model X --> Model 3: Minimal comparison. Tesla said they took learnings from the X and used them to streamline the 3, and I'm sure they did. But it was still a new platform, new cell type, new pack architecture, new software, new new new. And also intended for an order of magnitude increase in volume compared to either S or X.
Model 3 --> Model Y: The Y is said to share 75% of its components with the 3. It really is much more similar to the 3 than the X is to the S. It will likely use the 3's cell type, pack design, etc. It is intended for similar volumes as the 3. It will use the 3's software platform. Tesla will be unveiling it at a later stage of development vs the 3 on its development timeline.

This is not to say that I think Tesla will ramp up the Y as quickly as they'd like to. There will be issues. I just don't see them as being quite as numerous or severe as what the 3 went through, where it took 6 months from initial deliveries just to get any sort of volume going and another 6 to truly get things rolling.

Actually here is the most important reason, this time will be different.

Musk is no longer trying to do something "cool". He is now trying to be profitable. Very different goals.

The next "cool" thing is not some weird door or handle - but FSD.

 

[heltok]

Elon did great in the meme review, he seemed like a meme expert! Not sure if I would laugh as much at the dolphin meme, at least not while on camera. Social calibration and we live in very times with a lot of sensitive people taking things out of contexts, but I take it as sign that he is a good mood and that he believes that Tesla and SpaceX are doing very well.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Making or modifying Tesla ready for rally will take away yet another halo from ICE cars.
Really looking forward to it.

Tesla Model 3 Snow Driving | Is the Tesla Model 3 a Good Rally Car?

 

[Cherry Wine]

No mention of retaliatory European tariffs on imports of US autos in the event of imposition of US tariffs on European-imported autos - yet.

Caterpillar Inc. trucks, Xerox Corp. machines and Samsonite International SA luggage are among U.S. goods that would face retaliatory European Union tariffs should President Donald Trump follow through on a threat to impose automotive duties against the bloc, according to a senior EU official.

EU set to retaliate in case of auto tariffs

 

[Remus]

OFF TOPIC: Much happiness in my household (not me or my wife) but child: EM just did MEME REVIEW.......SP should soar now my daughter predicts!


EDIT: It better soar...some of her funds have been invested by her dad in TSLA

About 13 minutes in:

. It is NOT Will Smith...believe me

I held my nose and watched that.

OMG I am getting irrelevant! I have no freaking idea why that channel can get so many subscriptions!

 

[anthonyj]

 

[John Beans]

Elon did great in the meme review, he seemed like a meme expert! Not sure if I would laugh as much at the dolphin meme, at least not while on camera. Social calibration and we live in very times with a lot of sensitive people taking things out of contexts, but I take it as sign that he is a good mood and that he believes that Tesla and SpaceX are doing very well.

I saw that deer in the pool and thought, "Who's their lifeguard, Mr. Steven?"

 

[MXWing]

Elon did great in the meme review, he seemed like a meme expert! Not sure if I would laugh as much at the dolphin meme, at least not while on camera. Social calibration and we live in very times with a lot of sensitive people taking things out of contexts, but I take it as sign that he is a good mood and that he believes that Tesla and SpaceX are doing very well.

Disappointed in the memes. Don't think Elon was given great material to work with.

Now HERE is something funny. Musk - Interstellar mashup.

 

[SebastianR]

Wow, watch that view count of the meme review video! It was 5.7 when I started to watch and way above 6 million a few minutes later.

I think Elon should spend more time on these formats and ignore CNBC & Co.

Initially I didn’t get what Elon is doing here but now I think this is brilliant! Other car companies must be jealous!

 

[aubreymcfato]

Wow, watch that view count of the meme review video! It was 5.7 when I started to watch and way above 6 million a few minutes later.

I think Elon should spend more time on these formats and ignore CNBC & Co.

Initially I didn’t get what Elon is doing here but now I think this is brilliant! Other car companies must be jealous!

The viewrship he gets is insane, and from the past this translates in a lot of Twitter followers, we'll see. Elon knows what he does (until he doesn't: the deer laugh is better than I feared, but it could be viewed negatively).

 

[Foghat]

Wow, watch that view count of the meme review video! It was 5.7 when I started to watch and way above 6 million a few minutes later.

I think Elon should spend more time on these formats and ignore CNBC & Co.

Initially I didn’t get what Elon is doing here but now I think this is brilliant! Other car companies must be jealous!

Published 11 hours ago, and already hit nearly 1 million likes.

Marketing effectiveness at its best. It is ridiculous for him to do anything else. There is no need for mainstream media other then to advertise&promote his internet appearances.

I still want to see him do the hot sauce show with his kids right there to laugh with him as he eats hot wings and answer q’s in agony. It’d another hit to add to the list.

 

[MXWing]

CBS News Technology Analyst Larry Magid speaks with Consumer Reports Auto editor Patrick Olsen on why the magazine pulled its coveted "Recommended" rating from the Tesla Model 3

Consumer Reports Auto editor Patrick Olsen on why Tesla Model 3 lost the "Recommended" rating

My commentary notes:

Consumer Reports did not do a sufficient job justifying their "Not Recommended" rating.

The interviewer is great. Owns a Tesla Model 3 and is very knowledgeable about his car and how Tesla's "work."

Interviewer asked very reasonable questions that made sense. How can such a well regarded car not be recommended. CR response was not sufficient.

Consumer reports is going to wait ONE MORE YEAR to verify that Tesla fixed the issues. The owners were surveyed in Summer of 2018.

Paint/Trim/Electronics/Glass was the issues behind the rating. Back in the day, engine, transmissions were the issues of concern. The Tesla equivalent is motors, inverters and batteries. No complaints about those!

Consumer Reports LOVES Toyota and their very methodical and minor incremental improvements. Opposite of Tesla - and where is our Toyota EV?

I think the very modest price drops in TSLA reflect the overall inconsequentialness of this downgrade.

 

[KarenRei]

I think the very modest price drops in TSLA reflect the overall inconsequentialness of this downgrade.

I wouldn't call a nearly 4% drop when it happened "inconsequential". Nike had a shoe blow out in the middle of a televised basketball game in front of a former president and they lost only 1%.

 

[KarenRei]

CBS News Technology Analyst Larry Magid speaks with Consumer Reports Auto editor Patrick Olsen on why the magazine pulled its coveted "Recommended" rating from the Tesla Model 3

Consumer Reports Auto editor Patrick Olsen on why Tesla Model 3 lost the "Recommended" rating

My commentary notes:

Consumer Reports did not do a sufficient job justifying their "Not Recommended" rating.

The interviewer is great. Owns a Tesla Model 3 and is very knowledgeable about his car and how Tesla's "work."

Interviewer asked very reasonable questions that made sense. How can such a well regarded car not be recommended. CR response was not sufficient.

Consumer reports is going to wait ONE MORE YEAR to verify that Tesla fixed the issues. The owners were surveyed in Summer of 2018.

Paint/Trim/Electronics/Glass was the issues behind the rating. Back in the day, engine, transmissions were the issues of concern. The Tesla equivalent is motors, inverters and batteries. No complaints about those!

Consumer Reports LOVES Toyota and their very methodical and minor incremental improvements. Opposite of Tesla - and where is our Toyota EV?

I think the very modest price drops in TSLA reflect the overall inconsequentialness of this downgrade.

I have trouble getting past the interviewer's lisp...

But yeah, the responses are weak. Here's his main argument:

We have a very long history and we take it very seriously. And part of that history, and part of that focal point that we have is to make sure that we, we expect it that when people spend a lot of money on a new car, and if you buy a new car you're spending a money, that people deserve our recommendation only on models that we know are going to last the test of time. And it's not just a one sided or two sided triangle - they have to do well in our testing, they have to be reliable, and they have to be safe. And if you can't connect all of the parts of that, we're not going to recommend it.

Model 3 did do well in your testing .
Paint and trim are not issues about reliability. You yourselves said that the vehicle (powertrain, etc) was reliable.
You yourselves said it's safe.

So what the heck?

If people look at the Tesla Model 3 coverage on our site, all of the details that we can publish are there. We don't go into every detail from every owner, but we wrap them up in groups, we have 17 trouble areas, and we call off the ones that owners have told us that they have the most trouble with.

Yes, you did. And only one of those 17 categories was even "average", only a couple were "good", and all the others were "great". So again: what the heck?

I can tell you that, in broad strokes, it would be the paint and trim, electronics, and glass are the four areas that are trouble

You rated "Paint/Trim" as good.
You rated "In-car Electronics" as good, and "Electric System" as great.
You have no category for glass. One presumes it's "Body Hardware", which you ranked as average.
Not a single thing you described is a part of your "recommendation triangle" - testing, reliability, and safety.

 

[MXWing]

I wouldn't call a nearly 4% drop when it happened "inconsequential". Nike had a shoe blow out in the middle of a televised basketball game in front of a former president and they lost only 1%.

Fair enough, but I feel those losses were primarily from momentum trading and will recover.

I don’t think anyone was dumb enough to start or hold a long short position at 295.

Were are probably range bound regardless until the next catalyst. Short of macro swans we probably trend up chipping away at that dip once people digest the downgrade as nothing burgers.

 

[Fact Checking]

Options Expiration - Options Don't Expire on Fridays | InvestorPlace

"If you’re short ATM or near-money options and don’t cover, you’re at the mercy of the system. Ninety-nine times out of 100, nothing will happen, but always keep in mind that the risk extends past the regular 4 p.m. close."

The title is misleading: for all intents and purposes options do expire on Friday, just not at 4pm but at 5:30pm (using the 4pm price).

So the after hours price between 4pm and 5:30pm matters too: if there's a big price move the options could still be excercised until 5:30pm.

Also note that large positions of slightly out of the money options might be excercised even at a small loss by a large buyer of shares, to avoid slippage of the price.

Settlement will take several days, as usual, so the fact that options are cleared on Saturday is mostly immaterial (modulo counterparty risk).