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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Macros looking good for Tuesday morning, so far...
Dow futures jump more than 200 points on hopes of a coronavirus vaccine
Dow futures jump more than 200 points on hopes of a coronavirus vaccine
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
The volume for Tesla in Frankfurt (TL0.F) on Monday was just 989 shares.
Avg Volume for TLO.F is 3,664 per day.
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Thanks @FrankSG for the great weekend read, I learned a lot.
I have a sobering question, though:
did you model different scenarios taking into account climate change?
I'm in my mid-thirties and I think *a lot* about this, to be honest. I'm not very optimistic, given the circumstances.
I have a sobering question, though:
did you model different scenarios taking into account climate change?
I'm in my mid-thirties and I think *a lot* about this, to be honest. I'm not very optimistic, given the circumstances.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Lol, this Report was filed by ABC's Detroit station on May 07, 2020:
"Former UAW president Carrie Jones went from leading some 150,000 auto workers and contract talks last year with the big three to now formally charged with embezzlement and using the union to aid in racketeering"
I guess some things are higner priorities with the union.
Given that most of the world will soon realise Climate Change is a real problem, the technologies Tesla are developing and selling are exactly what is needed to reduce the problem, more will be needed, but reducing emissions is an essential first step..
If we hit tipping points where mankind loses control of the climate, then adaption and active intervention, becomes more important, for example Boring Company has a technology we will need....
In any scenario that doesn't involve human extinction, Tesla and related companies have most of the answers we need.... fixing this planet will be easier than moving to Mars.... there is no plan B. When there are important problems that need timely solutions, science and engineering are the only hope...
IMO people will be surprised how much the Fossil Fuel industry is a house of cards, how quickly it will fall over and disappear and how much better life will be for all... that rapid collapse will solve a lot of the problem... we all just need to do our tiny bit... encouraging others to buy EVs is the best thing to do, after that solar and a home battery... Everything we need to do is also in our best interests and will save us money in the long run... and add to our direct quality of life..
Doom and Gloom is the wrong message, the future is promising, is the right message.
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I won't share my exact portfolio (size), but I can say it was >98% of my net worth a few times in 2019. Probably a little less right now, but still very high, because TSLA has done so well.
The total amount I put in TSLA, I should've been able to earn back in <2 years with my current occupation, but I am planning to quit, because I've come to dislike it a lot and I want to do other things. I probably won't make anywhere close to as much with a different occupation.
My future isn't 'secure' if Tesla goes bankrupt tomorrow, but I'll manage. I'm pretty young too. I'm planning to sustain myself with other means (work) anyway for the next 5-10 years, so that I won't have to touch any of my investments. I don't want financial freedom so I can retire, sit on my ass, and do nothing. If Tesla goes bankrupt, it would only really impact my life 5-10+ years into the future.
I'm definitely biased/wrong, but I strive to be less biased/wrong over time. That's really all I can do. I try to base my predictions on data as much as I can.
I made this mistake in my Q2'19 earnings forecast. I kinda realised what I was doing at the time, and I've not done this since. Actually, looking back over that blog post, I might've adjusted the numbers a bit before posting, because it's not as severe as I remember it being. But you can still see I had 3 different predictions for "Net (loss) income attributable to noncontrolling". Nowadays I'd leave this the same if I do a bear and bull model for earnings, because it causes the exact problem you describe.
My bear and bull model in the Investment Strategy Blog aren't the most bearish and bullish prediction I can think of in every single part of the model. For example, shares outstanding is the same in both models, rather than the most bearish and bullish dilution I can think of. R&D spending is also the same in both models in dollar values.
What you speak of is still true to a certain extent, but I try to put these bear and bull models on a bell curve of sorts, with there being a <10% chance that reality turns out worse than the bear model, and a <10% chance of reality being better than the bull model. Although don't quote me on these exact percentages. I could also be unconsciously biased, and it could be something like <12% for bear, and <3% for bull, or vice versa.
I don't think either of these scenarios are unrealistically bearish or bullish, and I check over the high level predictions at the end, such as growth, operating margin, etc. to help make sure they stay realistic. Nonetheless, lots of unforeseen things could happen to throw these predictions off.
I've only been making super detailed financial models for Tesla for about a year. I was pretty satisfied with how my predictions for the past 2 ERs turned out, but time will tell whether any of my long term predictions turn out to be accurate. The ones from this blog post are currently looking like they were way too conservative.
When I wrote my initial investment thesis, I wasn't as confident yet, and I thought there just had to be some risks, albeit small. I wrote an entire section on risks in that post, but partly thanks to the comments I've gotten on my posts*, and partly due to continuously thinking logically about everything, I've now been able to disregard some of the risks that weren't very realistic. Those were kind of just in the back of my mind for the sake of having some risks, because you can't have a little-to-no risk investment, right? That's what I used to think anyway.
*Less than a handful constructive negative criticism. The little bit that I did get has been very valuable, but none of it was in the form of large risks to TSLA. Most of the negative criticism, that claimed I was wrong about my optimism with regards to Tesla/TSLA, was unconstructive, badly informed, and/or just plain wrong.
That being said, there is of course some risk, and most importantly I don't know what I don't know. So to try to know what I currently don't know, I do constantly try to look at it from 'the other side' and try to poke holes in everything.
The options are largely sold by market makers. I've learned from @ReflexFunds that these are being delta-hedged, so it appears possible for the sellers to make money, in spite of the sale of the option by itself being unprofitable.
The stock is (imo) being sold by badly informed people. If the market was always well informed, nobody could make any money investing, so I'm thankful that it's not.
Things that would make me pause:
- Elon no longer being involved with Tesla would give me cause for pause. I'd have to think about deleveraging and/or cashing out some. Although I think at this point, I'd still hold for the short to mid term. But because it'd lower my confidence in Tesla's long term execution, I might be much more conservative in the mid 2020s and late 2020s.
- Something that would jeopardize Tesla's ability to retain and attract talent. It's currently one of Tesla's largest competitive advantages over other auto companies in my opinion, and could potentially also become an advantage over other tech companies depending on how things play out. Tesla is a much more meaningful place to work than Facebook/Apple imo, and imo also has a much more inspiring founder/leader in Elon.
- Unforeseen 3rd party battery breakthroughs. It's still likely that they would work with Tesla, the largest consumer of batteries, but if not, it could spell trouble.
- Another company taking the lead in autonomy, although this seems almost as unlikely as a meteor hitting Palo Alto HQ. Tesla would still make the most efficient EVs with the best longevity, but it could hurt my long term bull case.
Best thing to do is to compare it to other investment opportunities imo. I think that's why the markets are doing relatively strong at the moment, in spite of COVID-19. They can't get good returns in cash/bonds, so the least bad place to park wealth is (in some cases traditionally overpriced) stocks.
If you know of another investment opportunity that you estimate would return an average of 30% annually, discount it 30% annually. If the best investment opportunity you currently know of is expected to return 10% annually, discount it 10% annually.
Read this.
I put in some disclaimers in some of my blogs:
I can't completely rule it out, but I hope that on average my blogs are more helpful and educational than stupidity-inducing.
Besides, it's probably better for people to do stupid things being long TSLA, than stupid things being short TSLA, or long other stocks.
California May Soon Mandate Uber & Lyft Shift To Electric Vehicles | CleanTechnica
Green Car Reports shared that the regulation will be focused around the idea of percentage of electric vehicle miles traveled (eVMT).
“Under two preliminary strategies, CARB would bring the percentage of eVMT from an estimated 5% in 2023 up to either 32% or 51% in 2030 — and lower emissions from 250 grams per passenger mile traveled today to between 38.4 and 68.6 grams in 2030. Overall, the strategies could raise the number of zero-emissions vehicles actively used in ride-hailing to 400,000 by 2030.”
That would certainly cause an uptick in demand
Green Car Reports shared that the regulation will be focused around the idea of percentage of electric vehicle miles traveled (eVMT).
“Under two preliminary strategies, CARB would bring the percentage of eVMT from an estimated 5% in 2023 up to either 32% or 51% in 2030 — and lower emissions from 250 grams per passenger mile traveled today to between 38.4 and 68.6 grams in 2030. Overall, the strategies could raise the number of zero-emissions vehicles actively used in ride-hailing to 400,000 by 2030.”
That would certainly cause an uptick in demand
Mo City
Active Member
Why not also require this of taxi companies?
mblakele
FSD Beta (99)
Knowing CARB, they may tilt the scheme toward fuel cells. The source article mentions them:
California will mandate more electric cars for Uber and Lyft: Here’s how
Regulation will be focused primarily around the idea of % eVMT (electric vehicle miles traveled), and counting only those miles covered by battery electric and fuel cell vehicles. PHEVs won’t be counted because there is no standardized, centralized way of knowing when and how often PHEV drivers actually plug in—with some studies showing that a significant portion never do.
Hopefully we’re at an inflection point.
Japan shares hit 10-week peak, S&P 500 tests 3,000
Good luck longs.
Japan shares hit 10-week peak, S&P 500 tests 3,000
Good luck longs.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
I just hope TSLA will participate in the rally, not lackluster like last week.
pz1975
Active Member
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
NASDAQ-100 Futures up over 2.0% at 02:15 hrs on Tuesday. TL0.F (Tesla) trading at 764.80 Euro in early trading at Frankfurt (eq. $835.05 USD)
If S&P breaking 3k doesn't get us over the 800 range hump, we truly are set in the 800's until Q2 P/D numbers haha
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
With a glorious 40 shares traded, I'm not sure how much worth should be put into this, haha.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yeah, its just fidgeting with the Euro right now. Still only 170 shares traded in Frankfurt.
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