Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dreadnought]

The Biggest "BULL"bell will be the 0-60mph if it is faster than anything with wheels. And it could be.
It may even make a "Liberty BullBell" if a writer compares it to some of the rockets.... just thinking about it? What's the 0-60mph for manned Spacecraft? 'could be an amusing graph.
Well just a quick search shows it already beats some (all?) manned spacecraft:
"
How fast does a rocket go 0 60?
To equal 1g of acceleration, a car would need to get to 60 in 2.74 seconds, roughly. If we want to be really, really exact, it looks like 1g is getting to 60 MPH in 2.73511683 seconds.Feb 7, 2017

The Fastest 0-60 Time A Person Could Actually Survive - Jalopnik
jalopnik.com › the-fastest-0-60-time-a-person-could-actua.

But not Dragsters .91sec 0-60 mph.

That would make for a nice headline but comparing against the first few seconds of the launch when the rocket has maximum mass is not really fair. And btw as it goes up vertically, it's always accelerating with more than one g.
Quick Google search brings up that Falcon 9, for instance caps acceleration intentionally at 4.5 g to protect the payload:
Launch Accelerations: Values, history

 

[Mo City]

Massive issue for VW Group, they have to refund diesel cars, turn in the car and get a refund, in Germany.
ZEIT ONLINE | Lesen Sie zeit.de mit Werbung oder imPUR-Abo. Sie haben die Wahl.

Der Bundesgerichtshof - Presse : Pressemitteilungen aus dem Jahr 2020 - Schadensersatzklage im sogenannten "Dieselfall" gegen die VW AG überwiegend erfolgreich

(get a refund for your sharan 2014, and buy a Model 3 )

This is yet another blow against VW? How much is this one estimated to cost them?

 

[Sancho]

Interesting, certainly seems you give a lot more thought to investments than many. I perused everything on your blog, love your price targets, rarely do I meet someone more bullish than I! I have a couple questions:

1. How much do you own? Feel free to PM, I'll keep it confidential, and share as well. Is your future secure without the funds? My fixed sources of income are such that I could lose everything in options and stocks and still maintain current lifestyle.
2. You might have shared this in the lengthy blog post, but how do you think of different business segments, chance of success in each, and in a way also you confidence in the numbers? I recall that humans overestimate their ability to guess things like this, and also can have their estimates be influenced. (Daniel Kahneman - Wikipedia). Are there things that have influenced you?
3. My understanding of math is that to arrive at a maximum bullish case for TSLA, one needs to take the change of success of each of the business segments working out and MULTIPLY each probability together. For example, if the max bull case of Y sales has 50% chance of success and max bull case of cybertruck has a 33% chance of success, one needs to multiply 1/2 and 1/3 to see the chance of max bull case of both things happening is really only 1/6, or about 17% chance. Adding in different business segments, of which there are many, can only decrease the chance of the entire thing coming out well. Discussion: TSLA has executed well historically and the times might well be a changing, but I think such things ought be considered. Is my understanding of the math wrong? Lottery mathematics - Wikipedia I think that this might cover some of it, but it is kind of like betting on black or red, and if one needs to hit red 6 times in a row, the chance of doing this (random events, not a business run well) is very small. I try and temper my analysis by such things.
4. Do you ever allow your mind to analyze the other side of the argument? Who is selling the stock and options to you and why? What would cause you to sell?
5. How do you account for current value based upon future potential? I've always discounted 20% per year but have no good way of doing this.

If you put out such a long post, and cross post it here, perhaps some flavor as to your position in life would help. Age, income, stability, etc. Do you ever worry that you might unduly influence others that could end up losing money?

I only like ITM options as they have some inherent value to them. I've paid 20% premium above that value to buy LEAPS.
Thanks

If I offer you the chance to bet on my flipping a coin 4 times, with you getting $10 for each head, and you get nothing for each tail, you should be happy if I charge you anything less than $20 to play (50% + 50% + 50% + 50%). So the math in the blog for the bull case is correct. However, if you want to calculate the chance of Tesla succeeding with all segments (which would mean that TSLA would be worth 100% of the upside of all segments) is indeed derived from multiplying. (so in the coin example, the chance of earning the full $40 would be 50% x 50% x 50% x 50% or 1/16).

So, from a mathematical perspective, the additive property of Tesla going after multiple huge paydays is very attractive to an investor. For those of us who feel the current SP is more than justified by just the automotive business, then the energy and other businesses are free lottery tickets (with odds that are far, far better than any lottery tickets we could buy).

 

[Singuy]

]


Over 100,000 dead already, trillions lost, the damage is too great for kiss and make up.
This will have a lasting impact that maybe only time , lots of time can heal.

?? Intent is all that matters. Blame an entire country and hold them for reparations because containment failed is nonsense. You think China wanted all this to happen? As if they didn't have enough on their plate already with HK being a thorn and Trump negotiating trade wars.

Containment failed pretty much everywhere, the worst being the U.S. Should the U.S held responsible for super charging the virus?

 

[goinfraftw]

Maybe it's worth going all-in in Tesla. Can they hurry up in lowering carbon emissions?

East Africa facing ‘triple threat’ from coronavirus, locusts and flooding, Red Cross warns

'Many will starve': locusts devour crops and livelihoods in Pakistan

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=locusts

 

[JRP3]

Anyone with that car will not need to rob a bank. They are loaded.

Maybe not after buying that Roadster. Gotta make the payments somehow.

 

[lafrisbee]

That would make for a nice headline but comparing against the first few seconds of the launch when the rocket has maximum mass is not really fair. And btw as it goes up vertically, it's always accelerating with more than one g.
Quick Google search brings up that Falcon 9, for instance caps acceleration intentionally at 4.5 g to protect the payload:
Launch Accelerations: Values, history

Come on MAN! (insert emoji here to let you know I am with you but realize we are dealing with humanity as a whole and they don't know Jack-Sugar about gravity so it would be read by the masses as if Tesla was cooler than rockets).

 

[Christine69420]

TL0 in Frankfurt today:

€760.90 is $831.63

€762.90 is $833.82
€751.10 is $820.92

The stock exchange in Frankfurt closed regular trading at 5:30.

 

[CyberDutchie]

If I offer you the chance to bet on my flipping a coin 4 times, with you getting $10 for each head, and you get nothing for each tail, you should be happy if I charge you anything less than $20 to play (50% + 50% + 50% + 50%). So the math in the blog for the bull case is correct. However, if you want to calculate the chance of Tesla succeeding with all segments (which would mean that TSLA would be worth 100% of the upside of all segments) is indeed derived from multiplying. (so in the coin example, the chance of earning the full $40 would be 50% x 50% x 50% x 50% or 1/16).

So, from a mathematical perspective, the additive property of Tesla going after multiple huge paydays is very attractive to an investor. For those of us who feel the current SP is more than justified by just the automotive business, then the energy and other businesses are free lottery tickets (with odds that are far, far better than any lottery tickets we could buy).

If you would apply this logic to Elon’s multiple paydays (the 12 “tranches”) with the chances of him reaching the next milestone at 50%, the chances for him of earning the full $55B would be 0.0244140625%.

However, since each tranche succeeds the previous one, the math needs to be different: you will need to apply a different chance of success reaching each mile stone within the 10 year time frame, for example like this:

 

[kengchang]

?? Intent is all that matters. Blame an entire country and hold them for reparations because containment failed is nonsense. You think China wanted all this to happen? As if they didn't have enough on their plate already with HK being a thorn and Trump negotiating trade wars.

Containment failed pretty much everywhere, the worst being the U.S. Should the U.S held responsible for super charging the virus?

Not Taiwan because we don't believe in China's BS PR talk and we don't follow WHO recommendation because we are not a member. Worked out great.

 

[HG Wells]

Since its the weekend I want to point out a strange resemblance.

This was Trumps physician during the election. He wrote that famous letter.
Trump dictated note saying he was 'astonishingly' healthy, doctor says

This is the Physician in france thats pushing the hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine drugs.
French doctor defiant on hydroxychloroquine despite study

Coincidence ?

 

[Curt Renz]

 

[MartinAustin]

That’s probably illegal. You’re going to hide your license plate when you’re likely to make a big speed violation.

I can't help but agree. There are going to be countries, jurisdictions, whatever where this is deemed illegal.

It seems cool and logical from an engineering standpoint.

Elon loves to push the envelope for reasons of cool and first physics. If he gets pushed back by regulators he will still have made the News Cycle one more time, which is the accidental-and-free marketing that Tesla thrives on.

I mean, isn't there anywhere else you can put the outlet(s) ?

 

[JRP3]

Plate could be made to slide up or down, still visible, to expose the nozzle.

 

[ZachF]

It's looking like road traffic may be back to normal (or close to it) in the US and Germany:

 

[ZeApelido]

I got a notification from IB (Lynx) that the number of analists with a buy rating on TSLA went from 5 to 4. But there were no changes in other ratings. Did someone stop covering TSLA?

 

[Kenypowa]

Not Taiwan because we don't believe in China's BS PR talk and we don't follow WHO recommendation because we are not a member. Worked out great.

Agreed. I am all in for advancing the sustainable transport in the world, including China.

However anyone would be foolish to believe anything from the Chinese Government / CCP. They would lie to their teeth to preserve their power. I mean, they can't even keep their promise of letting HK rule itself under 1 country 2 system for 50 years; it's been only 23 years and they couldn't wait to strip any remaining freedom and democracy from the HK citizens.

 

[Boomer19]

Exactly!

More seriously, I'm not familiar with any laws in the US that would make it illegal simply to have that capability - it would be illegal in every state to actually deploy it on a public road. It's more of a track tool and will certainly require a special mode to be selected before it will activate.

I imagine it will be very expensive and have very limited uptake - it's probably being designed more as an outrageous option to give Tesla marketing more cowbell (fastest 1/4 mile of any production car ever).

halo

 

[Reductionist]

I can't help but agree. There are going to be countries, jurisdictions, whatever where this is deemed illegal.

It seems cool and logical from an engineering standpoint.

Elon loves to push the envelope for reasons of cool and first physics. If he gets pushed back by regulators he will still have made the News Cycle one more time, which is the accidental-and-free marketing that Tesla thrives on.

I mean, isn't there anywhere else you can put the outlet(s) ?
View attachment 544769

I think the whole license plate discussion kind of misses the point. Judging from Elon's comments on what the SpaceX package will be able to do (ie. significantly increased acceleration), I think it's reasonable to assume that the thrust of the system is planned to be on the order of 2000-5000 lbf (0.4-1g of additional acceleration). There is no way that the operation of such a thruster on public roads is going to be legal.
The risk of injury and property damage, not to mention the noise level, and the sheer novelty of such a system will make it next to impossible to make this package street legal.
Because of this, I'm basically certain that this system will be geoblocked to only be available on private roads/racetracks. There it doesn't matter if the license plate retracts.

 

[jerry33]

However anyone would be foolish to believe anything from the Chinese Government / CCP. They would lie to their teeth to preserve their power. I mean, they can't even keep their promise...

Are you sure it's China? This sounds a lot like the U.S. government.