yup stock market is forward looking .... I think you are helping making my point .... the market IMHO is detached from reality ... it is not rational... that is precisely the definition of a bubble or a castle in the air... for the rise to continue unfettered the thesis has to be looking forward everything goes back to what is was pre-covid ... in fact better than it was pre-covid.... the upslope of the V continues to rise ...
I just don't see it ... macro environment will have an impact on Tesla at some point ... Tesla is better positioned than competitors and i will continue to invest ... but you cant say that TSLA is insulated from the macro environment ... at least not yet ....
i feel like we are actually talking about investing i am loving the debate
It is wrong to think that all businesses, market segments, and people are impacted the same way in any depression/recession.
In the Great Depression of the 1930's, Hollywood grew enormously as movies now had sound and were an affordable entertainment option. Proctor & Gamble stepped up advertising, including producing its own radio shows, and kept sales up while competitors slumped.
Today's there a big difference between running an airline and running a video conferencing company, between running retail stores and a SaaS business. Between running a movie theater and SVOD. We've seen a huge shift in how people work and live, and while things will not stay the way they are today, they also won't go back to what they were previously. The shift to virtual and online environments was happening anyway, and the lockdowns have accelerated that shift.
There are winners and losers and it's incorrect to characterize what's happening today as affecting everyone and every business the same.
The market is completely detached from reality. The bubble may burst, or can go on indefinitely, with movements expanding and contracting to and from economic reality. No one knows.
Tesla still has auto sales as its core revenue generator. Yes in the future that may change, but currently that is fact. There has been anecdotal talk here of no deals on new cars from Ford etc. This is true, but will change as the supply changes. Things shutdown. The supply of new cars dried up. But the supply of used vehicles is increasing. Hence where things are currently reflected in, is the used car market. Prices are dropping. As someone who bought an used X in February, and scoured ev.cpo daily for a long time, I know for fact used tesla prices have already dropped. People are turning their leases in or trying to get out of them contributing to more used supply. Car rental companies, either going bankrupt or on their way, are adding to that supply as well. Some predictions say used car prices might drop another 20 to 30 per cent this year.
Tesla is not insulated from this. In my opinion this is the real reason they dropped prices recently. Trying to stay ahead of somewhat decrease in demand, and the potential for more. Fact of matter is few people are tesla fanatics like us. Few people dig deep into EV driving, and if they have been driving ICE their whole life, and now can scoop up a 2 year old vehicle for historically the price of that same vehicle being 4 or 5 years old, they will be more than happy to do so, especially if gas is cheap. On top of that people are driving way less, and as workplaces transition, this may remain the case permanently, thus decreasing vehicle turnover. in my opinion this situation slows transition to electric driving and does not accelerate it.
Realize I am not saying the future is not bright, but Tsla goes up, Tsla goes down. I would be somewhat surprised to not see a dip after Q2, and if a second wave of COVID hits hard in the fall, the v-shaped recovery we are in, will splinter and Tsla will be pulled down, as new cars will not be purchased in the relative strength they would of been.
So that’s where I stand. Been a while since I have held no options, but too risky for me in these strange times. I say after q2 we will see the 700’s again. The fall all depends on vaccines, treatments, and outbreaks. To look at the minutiae of tesla during this time, while giving insight, will not protect from where the world happens to be.
