Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[HG Wells]

I think the market in general will go down over the next few weeks.

 

[Prunesquallor]

https://twitter.com/troyteslike/status/1270927560415817735?s=21

Troy Teslike predicts 501,000.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I think the market in general will go down over the next few weeks.

I don't think we're going to have a lot of days like today. I actually think it's going to be a very slow drift downwards , which would actually be welcome from my point of view. Allows time for the market to more accurately assess values of individual companies instead of treating a big blanket move up and down for everything. Maybe the market goes down another 5-10% from here, but I really just see it bouncing back and forth between this high and 5-10% lower.

 

[Causalien]

Ya. Can we stop talking about nkla. The time I wasted skipping those posts are getting too much.

We are not nklaq. There's no gain for investor here from finding out how bad they are. And I find my mind getting poisoned by all the negativity.

 

[dl003]

So far today the auto industry is getting absolutely pummeled while TSLA is down <2%.

I don't know if that can hold.

So far today I've gotten like 15% of my wish. Market is taking a dump (and needs to go down quite substantially more) but TSLA remains healthy. I never thought TSLA would go down as much as the market in the first place. It was always my prediction that, as market goes into correction, TSLA will come out ahead as smart money moves out of meme stocks like airlines, pharma, and BS IPOs and into fundamental plays like TSLA. Funny how TSLA is becoming a fundamental play during all this; oh how far we have come. We got the products, the upgrades, the balance sheet, the brand, and the execution. Apple be damned.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Every time I look at the TSLA chart today I hear a horse race announcer in the back of my mind calling the moves around the $1000 point. I can't make up my mind on which horse is going to take the win today. The options volume is saying under $1000 for Friday at the moment. It is really hard reading these tea leaves today. I think they are buying back the higher PUTs.

Upper BB is now 998. Coincidence? I think not. @Artful Dodger ?

 

[floydboy]

The issue is that they don't have expertise in fuel cells. What they actually have to convince everyone is that only Nikola can drop in off-the-shelf parts into a truck.

I'm not quite sure how they expect to be able to do that.

I'm thinking, fuel cells aren't their core competency.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

this guy used to be long till like 5-6 mths back

considering he closed his short at a loss ... and then SOLD $1100 puts?!?! I'd say he's a bull again.

Edit: ... just not on purpose.

 

[jbcarioca]

I disagree. Once you can show truckers and trucking companies benefits, either economic or time saving*, they jump on it fast. Examples: switch to radial tires and remote mechanical and driver monitoring. (Naturally they are resistant to change if you can't show them benefits.)

*Example: Before radial tires, truck drivers that drove on unpaved roads (gravel trucks, logging trucks, etc.) spent the evenings repairing flats. Two or three flats per day was pretty common. After radial tires, flats became almost a non-existent. Before radial tires, tire fires on highway trucks were also common. Now they are very rare.

I disagreed, but only because you're overstating the receptiveness to change. Radial tires were a major exception, a transformational technology that actually required minimal change in behavior. BEV does require major behavioral change, but the more serious impediment is the technological adaptability of truck drivers. Of course, large corporate fleets that are run by technology-receptive operators will lead the way. The Walmart, Amazon, and others will lead most traditional common carrier types. Still, the driver learning curve is a large impediment.

Even with aircraft, legions of highly trained pilots resisted 'glass cockpits' and Fly-by-wire so virulently that they actually cost Boeing at least a decade. How much less adaptable will be truck operators. No, they aren't the decision makers, but they can slow the rate of change.

 

[Todd Burch]

More strange all carmakers are on the red BUT not NKLA$ +1.90%

cuz it’s not a carmaker .

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Poor little Robinhood retail investors. Wall Street pumps the market up, everyone jumps in.......and the bottom falls out.

We are completely out of whack right now considering the near and medium term prospects for the economy. Oil is massively oversupplied, yet we still pump like mad and act as if all is well. Zombie companies like Uber and Nikola are soaring, yet have little chance of profit in the next 2-3 years.

I think we're hitting reality here and are gonna reset somewhere lower for the summer. This last run up was essentially a scam to rip off retail investors.

Fortunately for us.....Tesla is insulated from all this noise and can just continue to scale. Fun times.

 

[wipster]

So, profit taking, MMD, or what goes up must come down?

Inquiring minds are just curious yellow (or George)...

 

[DrL90]

I agree. Money/savings talk to this group. Besides fuel savings, which will be enough on their own and not mouse nuts, there was the mention of numerous cracked windshields over the life of the vehicle that would be addressed by Tesla glass - as long as Franz ‘The Incredible Hulk’ isn’t throwing steel balls off of overpasses. That can save thousands.

Then there’s just all the other engine/tranny/brakes etc... that aren’t going to require maintenance and repair.

Tesla semis will pay for themselves much quicker.

Then we have TACC and AP advantages. For those of us that have driven their Tesla’s on long road trips, we know how these features reduce stress and exhaustion by significant amounts. Truckers will find they don’t tire the same way. In fact, I can envision changes (more) to drivable hours. Imagine as a trucker no longer having to keep logs but instead the vehicle doing it for you. Quicker inspection turn around times. I can even envision the eventual discontinuation/at least a dramatic change to check point stops with automatic cargo weighing by the vehicle etc...

Many people think too small and are unable to imagine significant change.

And none of this even considers FSD and platooning.

Electronic logging devices (ELD) are now a requirement by the federal motor carrier safety administration. Most truckers haven't had to keep logs themselves since it the compliance date in Dec 2017. All Trucks with a 1999 or older engine model year are the only ones exempt from this. As you would suspect there was alot of pushback against this from the trucking community especially the owner operators because you could no longer over run your hours of service. There will definitely be benefits to having the Tesla semi with this ELD already on board. Considering as of today these are all purchased separately from the trucks whether its an app on your phone or some sort of tablet with a dock that connects to the electronics of the truck to monitor when you've stopped or are driving. I think Tesla should try to make some type of arrangements with the large fueling stations that already hold the properties in all the correct locations all across the country to build out the charging infrastructure. I know it doesn't make much sense because they sell fuel but I'd have to imagine it'd make adoption of the Tesla semi that much easier knowing there's always a charging spot near by thats large enough to house a 70 plus foot vehicle.

 

[UncaNed]

That's why they have 'fractional' shares...lol....and most robinhooders are of the 'YOLO' generation so most likely they will be buying $2k call options

Is there really such a thing as fractional call options?? If so, what broker??

 

[Artful Dodger]

Max Pain: $970.00

Stock Option Max Pain

 

[Drax7]

I disagreed, but only because you're overstating the receptiveness to change. Radial tires were a major exception, a transformational technology that actually required minimal change in behavior. BEV does require major behavioral change, but the more serious impediment is the technological adaptability of truck drivers. Of course, large corporate fleets that are run by technology-receptive operators will lead the way. The Walmart, Amazon, and others will lead most traditional common carrier types. Still, the driver learning curve is a large impediment.

Even with aircraft, legions of highly trained pilots resisted 'glass cockpits' and Fly-by-wire so virulently that they actually cost Boeing at least a decade. How much less adaptable will be truck operators. No, they aren't the decision makers, but they can slow the rate of change.

How complicated is it to drive an electric vehicle?
In minutes i adapted.
An 18 wheeler with manual transmission is way more complex.
What am I missing.

 

[phantasms]

CNBC doing a special on Musk [Tesla and Space X] in the morning. 6am?

I'm buying the dip for a short term play.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Ya. Can we stop talking about nkla. The time I wasted skipping those posts are getting too much.

We are not nklaq. There's no gain for investor here from finding out how bad they are. And I find my mind getting poisoned by all the negativity.

Agreed. The Nikola/NKLA discussion was fun (and even useful) for a few days, but it has run its course. And while we’re at it: the ‘how much is Toyota worth’ discussion is also getting old.

Any more posts on these subjects may end up in the cylindrical archive.

 

[dl003]

So, profit taking, MMD, or what goes up must come down?

Inquiring minds are just curious yellow (or George)...

I think we have seen a combination of overconfidence in the Fed, MM's delta hedging due to retails buying calls, retails buying the dip, future manipulation to lure retails in. In WSB speak: normies have no one to blame but themselves.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Upper BB is now 998. Coincidence? I think not. @Artful Dodger ?

Yeah, Upper-BB dropped to 991.90 by 13:00 hrs due to the lunch-time slump. Nice though that its still up substantially over yesterday (974.60 at the Close). Tomorrow, the Upper-BB is likely to be up substantially again, it'd be nice to see it open over $1K for moral support/affirmation.

With Max-Pain at $970 if volume dries up this afternoon MMs will likely push hard. Either way, no matter. The 'curve' is 'up and to the right'...

#Texla

EDIT: @Unpilot 'Technical Traders stick the landing'...



Cheers!