Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[adiggs]

I disagreed, but only because you're overstating the receptiveness to change. Radial tires were a major exception, a transformational technology that actually required minimal change in behavior. BEV does require major behavioral change, but the more serious impediment is the technological adaptability of truck drivers. Of course, large corporate fleets that are run by technology-receptive operators will lead the way. The Walmart, Amazon, and others will lead most traditional common carrier types. Still, the driver learning curve is a large impediment.

Even with aircraft, legions of highly trained pilots resisted 'glass cockpits' and Fly-by-wire so virulently that they actually cost Boeing at least a decade. How much less adaptable will be truck operators. No, they aren't the decision makers, but they can slow the rate of change.

I figure that the early adoption is a mixture of drayage and defined and shorter routes where the vehicles can be charged at their base of operations where it parks daily (nightly).

That's a slice of the total market, and yet I think a big enough slice to keep manufacturers building trucks for a few years trying to satisfy this demand. That demand is dependent on the fuel cost and consistency being enough lower that not transitioning will be a major factor in the cost of transportation (and I think that it will be - about .20 / mile fuel cost vs. about .50 / mile fuel cost).


The long haul, owner - operators, and other more general use cases will need longer to develop. Primarily due to the need for somebody to build out a significant charging network that can be relied on. I trust Tesla to build that network, but this network is going to be more difficult to build - partly due to the power draw, and also due to the restrictions on where these can be placed (truck stops) due to the rest of the services for drivers and setup they need for handling tractor + trailers (a supercharger in a restaurant or hotel parking lost just won't work for these charger locations).

 

[ZeApelido]

So, profit taking, MMD, or what goes up must come down?

Inquiring minds are just curious yellow (or George)...

Just following macros (SPY, Nasdaq) looks to me.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Poor little Robinhood retail investors. Wall Street pumps the market up, everyone jumps in.......and the bottom falls out.

We are completely out of whack right now considering the near and medium term prospects for the economy. Oil is massively oversupplied, yet we still pump like mad and act as if all is well. Zombie companies like Uber and Nikola are soaring, yet have little chance of profit in the next 2-3 years.

I think we're hitting reality here and are gonna reset somewhere lower for the summer. This last run up was essentially a scam to rip off retail investors.

Fortunately for us.....Tesla is insulated from all this noise and can just continue to scale. Fun times.

While the market is overstretched right now, I don't see it being drastically overvalued because money has transitioned from some sectors into others, especially tech. Tech leading the rally and/or sustaining is the best possible outcome because tech is pretty insulated from the effects of the lockdown. Literally besides not being able to go out on the town, life has not changed for anyone I know in the in tech community here in Seattle and I have a very big network here spanning practically all of the large tech companies and small ones here in Seattle. No job loss, no cut backs, no one's even worried about job cuts in the fall. Not because they're delusional, but because their companies are actually telling them there's no need to worry about layoffs now or in the future. Savings and their available discretionary spending has gone up because the traditional things they spend money on they haven't been able to do so in months. Meanwhile the PPP and extra $600/weekly for unemployment is doing it's job.

I will definitely say that the outlook forward from here is all about is there another lockdown in the fall and you either fall into the camp that there will be or there won't be. Based on the updated data on mortality rate, hospitalizations, and ICU, I'm in the camp that thinks there will be no lockdown again, regardless of a 2nd wave.

I fundamentally believe this virus and the market/economy has and is still going through a transition/transformation from an old market where traditional metrics and signs of market strengths and weaknesses are obsolete into a new market/economy. I mean oil......oil doesn't matter anymore, at least not in the way it used to be for a barometer of economy health. Yet on CNBC you hear them talking about it constantly....except that the disruption of oil was already starting before the virus and it's only going to be accelerated by renewable energy. I continue to believe that the large amount of money that has been sitting on the sidelines waiting for a retest or anything close to a retest of the march low will continue to wait and miss out.

And retail investors were and continue to buy stocks in the tech sectors and stocks that are growth stocks. Sure there are some retail investors chasing stocks like airlines, cruise ships, etc...those are definitely bubbles. But I don't think retail is being screwed over nearly as much as you think they are. Amazon was one of the top accumulations of retail investors since the bottom and it's holding up fine and will continue to do so.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

While the market is overstretched right now, I don't see it being drastically overvalued because money has transitioned from some sectors into others, especially tech. Tech leading the rally and/or sustaining is the best possible outcome because tech is pretty insulated from the effects of the lockdown. Literally besides not being able to go out on the town, life has not changed for anyone I know in the in tech community here in Seattle and I have a very big network here spanning practically all of the large tech companies and small ones here in Seattle. No job loss, no cut backs, no one's even worried about job cuts in the fall. Not because they're delusional, but because their companies are actually telling them there's no need to worry about layoffs now or in the future. Savings and their available discretionary spending has gone up because the traditional things they spend money on they haven't been able to do so in months. Meanwhile the PPP and extra $600/weekly for unemployment is doing it's job.

I will definitely say that the outlook forward from here is all about is there another lockdown in the fall and you either fall into the camp that there will be or there won't be. I will definitely say based on the updated data on mortality rate, hospitalizations, and ICU, I'm in the camp that thinks there will be no lockdown again, regardless of a 2nd wave.

I fundamentally believe this virus and the market/economy has and is still going through a transition/transformation from an old market where traditional metrics and signs of market strengths and weaknesses are obsolete into a new market/economy. I mean oil......oil doesn't matter anymore, at least not in the way it used to be for a barometer of economy health. Yet on CNBC you hear them talking about it constantly....except that the disruption of oil was already starting before the virus and it's only going to be accelerated by renewable energy. I continue to believe that the large amount of money that has been sitting on the sidelines waiting for a retest or anything close to a retest of the march low will continue to wait and miss out.

And retail investors were and continue to buy stocks in the tech sectors and stocks that are growth stocks. Sure there are some retail investors chasing stocks like airlines, cruise ships, etc...those are definitely bubbles. But I don't think retail is being screwed over nearly as much as you think they are. Amazon was one of the top accumulations of retail investors since the bottom and it's holding up fine and will continue to do so.

Agreed. The price action in BA these past few days has me thinking the Big MM's are just shaking out the weak and gonna buy some big positions when it reaches their entry point. It's been pretty much all gloom for BA this week, but i dipped a little into them today. At these levels, i do not think it can lose much more.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Just following macros (SPY, Nasdaq) looks to me.

Heavily manipulated in the Pre-Market from 08:00 (left edge of chart below) to 09:30 hrs, to the tune of -1% vs the QQQ (NASDAQ-100) macros. That's how they engineeered the Opening SP at $20 lower than expected due changes in the macros.

TSLA been moving at roughly a 2x multiple of the macros since shortly after the Opening (c.f. MMD).

Cheers

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

To add on to what I said above, I'm definitely not advocating for the stock market to just bounce back from this down day in a day or two or even a week. I'd love to see the overall market go down another 1-2% today and level out, maybe over the next week total is another 2-3% down and then just have the market take a breather to readjust value to individual companies.

Considering how much the dyamics of the stock market have changed in terms of where the money is being put, I think an overall drop of 5% from these levels makes the macro market pretty fairly valued, maybe even undervalued if the trend of increasing positive Covid tests with little corresponding jump in ICU/Hospitalizations/ICU's continues and/or we get some more positive vaccine/drug developments

To me, the very positive part of this pullback and another pullback of 2-5% from here in the macro's that it's happening at the best possible time for us as Tesla investors. Let the pullback happen before Q2 P/D and Q2 earnings numbers so that investors are more mentally prepared to buy in on those events rather than being hesitant because they fear a macro pullback could happen at any time.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

While the market is overstretched right now, I don't see it being drastically overvalued because money has transitioned from some sectors into others, especially tech. Tech leading the rally and/or sustaining is the best possible outcome because tech is pretty insulated from the effects of the lockdown. Literally besides not being able to go out on the town, life has not changed for anyone I know in the in tech community here in Seattle and I have a very big network here spanning practically all of the large tech companies and small ones here in Seattle. No job loss, no cut backs, no one's even worried about job cuts in the fall. Not because they're delusional, but because their companies are actually telling them there's no need to worry about layoffs now or in the future. Savings and their available discretionary spending has gone up because the traditional things they spend money on they haven't been able to do so in months. Meanwhile the PPP and extra $600/weekly for unemployment is doing it's job.

I will definitely say that the outlook forward from here is all about is there another lockdown in the fall and you either fall into the camp that there will be or there won't be. Based on the updated data on mortality rate, hospitalizations, and ICU, I'm in the camp that thinks there will be no lockdown again, regardless of a 2nd wave.

I fundamentally believe this virus and the market/economy has and is still going through a transition/transformation from an old market where traditional metrics and signs of market strengths and weaknesses are obsolete into a new market/economy. I mean oil......oil doesn't matter anymore, at least not in the way it used to be for a barometer of economy health. Yet on CNBC you hear them talking about it constantly....except that the disruption of oil was already starting before the virus and it's only going to be accelerated by renewable energy. I continue to believe that the large amount of money that has been sitting on the sidelines waiting for a retest or anything close to a retest of the march low will continue to wait and miss out.

And retail investors were and continue to buy stocks in the tech sectors and stocks that are growth stocks. Sure there are some retail investors chasing stocks like airlines, cruise ships, etc...those are definitely bubbles. But I don't think retail is being screwed over nearly as much as you think they are. Amazon was one of the top accumulations of retail investors since the bottom and it's holding up fine and will continue to do so.

All of those things may be true, but the big tech world(employment-wise) is only a small slice of the US/World. And one that was unlikely to be disrupted regardless of calamity. The regular US......is an absolute mess and rapidly trending worse. Unemployment won't get back to 2019 levels until at least 2023, wealth an income inequality are accelerating even more in the mean time. We act as if there's going to be no pain from all these things, that's physically impossible.

Yes, oil is for all intents and purposes now irrelevant. However there are still trillions of dollars in market cap saying otherwise. Not to mention all the employees now being thrown on top of an already huge unemployment pile. Who is going to pay all these people for 3 years of unemployment? Are we going to run $3T deficits for 3 straight years while half our states and cities are effectively bankrupt?

It just feels like we're deluding ourselves. A transition on this scale, though progressive, has to come with pain on par with the World Wars at the onset of the Industrial Age. I've posted that IMO the covid lockdown is a part of that pain, but it's probably just the tip of the iceberg. Anywho......enough macro talk, apologies.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Mkt Cap report (11 Jun 14:00 Hrs):

183.902B / 173.844B =
+5.58% TSLA / TM

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

All of those things bay be true, but the big tech world(employment-wise) is only a small slice of the US/World. And one that was unlikely to be disrupted regardless of calamity. The regular US......is an absolute mess and rapidly trending worse. Unemployment won't get back to 2019 levels until at least 2023, wealth an income inequality are accelerating even more in the mean time. We act as if there's going to be no pain from all these things, that's physically impossible.

Yes, oil is for all intents and purposes now irrelevant. However there are still trillions of dollars in market cap saying otherwise. Not to mention all the employees now being thrown on top of an already huge unemployment pile. Who is going to pay all these people for 3 years of unemployment? Are we going to run $3T deficits for 3 straight years while half our states and cities are effectively bankrupt?

It just feels like we're deluding ourselves. A transition on this scale, though progressive, has to come with pain on par with the World Wars at the onset of the Industrial Age. I've posted that IMO the covid lockdown is a part of that pain, but it's probably just the tip of the iceberg. Anywho......enough macro talk, apologies.

Everyone's opinion is valid

The only thing I'll repeat is what I said just above.......regardless of whether we agree on how much the market is overvalued or not , in terms of timing, this is the best possible time for the market to correct itself or pullback, at least for Tesla investors. Get it out of the way before the start of the 2nd half of the year for Tesla and Q2 P/D and Earnings so that when/if Tesla executes like it has been doing, the stock will be free to run

 

[TheTalkingMule]

....this is the best possible time for the market to correct itself or pullback, at least for Tesla investors. Get it out of the way before the start of the 2nd half of the year for Tesla and Q2 P/D and Earnings so that when/if Tesla executes like it has been doing, the stock will be free to run

And raise funds! I would be overjoyed to see the market and TSLA flatten out for a few weeks and then Elon to bust out a $10B cash raise to "accelerate expansion". In 2021/22 we could use those funds to actually accelerate expansion or keep afloat in the macro bloodbath.

 

[dl003]

I have so many nice things to say about NKLA and not being allowed to say them is torturous.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

And raise funds! I would be overjoyed to see the market and TSLA flatten out for a few weeks and then Elon to bust out a $10B cash raise to "accelerate expansion". In 2021/22 we could use those funds to actually accelerate expansion or keep afloat in the macro bloodbath.

I would be very opposed to any cap raise until after Q3/Q4, possibly Q1/Q2 of next year . I very much believe the stock price will be double what it is around this time next year if Tesla executes. Why raise funds at a lower valuation when you internally know that your production is going to increase more than double in 12 months time? I would say focus on increasing total production rates to 250k a quarter by this time next year and see where the market values the company and then start a new push of expansion and raise funds at that time if they need to.

Giga 3, Giga Berlin, and the Texas Giga can easily be covered by Tesla's current cash and cash flow.

 

[mekberg]

I would be very opposed to any cap raise until after Q3/Q4, possibly Q1/Q2 of next year . I very much believe the stock price will be double what it is around this time next year if Tesla executes. Why raise funds at a lower valuation when you internally know that your production is going to increase more than double in 12 months time? I would say focus on increasing total production rates to 250k a quarter by this time next year and see where the market values the company and then start a new push of expansion and raise funds at that time if they need to.

Giga 3, Giga Berlin, and the Texas Giga can easily be covered by Tesla's current cash and cash flow.

Also battery day.

 

[Buckminster]

ID3 gets 4 stars:

Volkswagen ID 3 2020 review | Autocar

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Also battery day.

Probably the only scenario of raising cap this year that I would be ok with is if the stock shoots up to like $1,500 in a day or two after battery day based on what is shown at battery day

 

[Buckminster]

I have so many nice things to say about NKLA and not being allowed to say them is torturous.

Just for you:
NKLAQ

 

[Curt Renz]

Giga Berlin - today:

 

[LN1_Casey]

ID3 gets 4 stars:

Volkswagen ID 3 2020 review | Autocar

Where did they find a working ID3 at?!

 

[EVMeister]

ID3 gets 4 stars:

Volkswagen ID 3 2020 review | Autocar

"Among the wind-cheating measures are aero-optimised wheels, an almost completely enclosed front end, a panel at the end of the bonnet to channel wind more efficiently over the windscreen".

Always with the cheating!

On a serious note: "Press the starter button located on the steering column, at which there is some distant telltale whirring of electronic devices, then twist the gearlever."

I thought they got rid of the start button and were touting the lack of it as a great feature back in the early reveal days? Could their software or something else not cope with lack of start button? Maybe I'm thinking of a different vehicle.

 

[Artful Dodger]

ID3 gets 4 stars:

Volkswagen ID 3 2020 review | Autocar

Only for?

Cheers!