lafrisbee
Active Member
The only reason?
I tend to like my "old" cars from what I did in em, or where they took me. I was poor. So I did NOT like them much, or often.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I tend to like my "old" cars from what I did in em, or where they took me. I was poor. So I did NOT like them much, or often.
bhtooefr
Active Member
Updated short interest:
15,139,641 shares, $15.002B at risk.
Ihor's estimate was 16.17M shares, 6.81% too high.
Buying options with cash never uses anything as collateral. You are buying the options, they're yours to sell, exercise, or let expire. (There are delta hedging effects, of course, but this doesn't affect the ownership/lending status of your stock, other than its value.)
Selling options does use collateral. If you sell a put option, 100x the strike price in cash (that is, what you would owe if the option were to be exercised) will be held as collateral. The only way that stock is held as collateral is if you sell a call option, in which case 100 shares of the underlying stock will be held as collateral (and presumably that's where lending may come in). Note that you can't sell a naked call (which has unlimited loss potential, just like actually shorting the stock) without margin, because of this - without margin you must have the actual stock to be held as collateral.
And then spreads are another thing.
In all cases, the long leg of the spread acts as protection against the short leg getting exercised.
In a debit spread (where the long leg's strike price is closer to the current price and is therefore more valuable), the maximum loss is what you paid for the spread, so no collateral is held, you own the spread (but you can't sell the long leg of the spread without having collateral for the short leg, replacing it with another long leg in the same order, or buying back the short leg in the same order!) If the short leg were to somehow get exercised, the long leg guarantees profits even, of 100x the difference between the strike prices.
In a credit spread, the maximum loss is if the short leg (more valuable) gets exercised, causing you to have to exercise the long leg - therefore it's 100x the difference between the strike prices - and that is the cash collateral that must be held. (Note that even in a call credit spread, where the short leg would normally mean unlimited loss potential, the long leg limits the loss, and therefore only cash needs to be held as collateral, not stock.)
15,139,641 shares, $15.002B at risk.
Ihor's estimate was 16.17M shares, 6.81% too high.
All of this below is assuming that you don't have margin enabled.
Buying options with cash never uses anything as collateral. You are buying the options, they're yours to sell, exercise, or let expire. (There are delta hedging effects, of course, but this doesn't affect the ownership/lending status of your stock, other than its value.)
Selling options does use collateral. If you sell a put option, 100x the strike price in cash (that is, what you would owe if the option were to be exercised) will be held as collateral. The only way that stock is held as collateral is if you sell a call option, in which case 100 shares of the underlying stock will be held as collateral (and presumably that's where lending may come in). Note that you can't sell a naked call (which has unlimited loss potential, just like actually shorting the stock) without margin, because of this - without margin you must have the actual stock to be held as collateral.
And then spreads are another thing.
In all cases, the long leg of the spread acts as protection against the short leg getting exercised.
In a debit spread (where the long leg's strike price is closer to the current price and is therefore more valuable), the maximum loss is what you paid for the spread, so no collateral is held, you own the spread (but you can't sell the long leg of the spread without having collateral for the short leg, replacing it with another long leg in the same order, or buying back the short leg in the same order!) If the short leg were to somehow get exercised, the long leg guarantees profits even, of 100x the difference between the strike prices.
In a credit spread, the maximum loss is if the short leg (more valuable) gets exercised, causing you to have to exercise the long leg - therefore it's 100x the difference between the strike prices - and that is the cash collateral that must be held. (Note that even in a call credit spread, where the short leg would normally mean unlimited loss potential, the long leg limits the loss, and therefore only cash needs to be held as collateral, not stock.)
Last edited:
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Here's a Chart from the final trading day of Q1 2020:
Here's a Chart from the final trading day of Q4 2019:
Here's a Chart from the final trading day of Q3 2019:
So 2 out of 3 ain't bad? Note that TSLA was flat going into the end of 2019 Q3, so there was no special motivation for Large Funds to 'load up'.
HTH.
Cheers!
Last edited:
Well the 4th of July holiday will interfere with that here in the States if they announce after-hours on the 2nd as the 3rd (Friday) is the recognized holiday and the markets will be closed until Monday the 6th. Plenty of time for FUD to flood if the intent is to keep the SP down.
Now if P/D is around 90K, Katie bar the door!
lafrisbee
Active Member
WAG and nowhere?This is as good a time as any to go on the record with my prediction for 2020 Tesla vehicle production:
526,750 vehicles total in 2020
Now, 1.5 cyberbux for anyone who can guess how I got here; 5 cyberbux if you can guess where this is going...
Cheers!
I crack me up.If the number is truly great, above 92k....I don't see Elon missing the chance to hammer it to Wall st by releasing any later than before market opens on July 2nd. Tesla might say there's a greater % of cars that could still be added to deliveries that they're still counting than they normally do if they want to rush out a positive surprise.
Right... I was just thinking more people buying shares of TSLA regardless of their initial motivation.I don't know why you would call them "friends" if you are helping them set up "trading" accounts. Friends don't encourage friends to trade.
Perhaps you meant setting up a brokerage account for investment purposes.
I don't think this distinction is made often enough. When someone asks what I do and I tell them I've been retired for decades they want to know what I do for income. When I tell them I'm an investor the most common thing for them to say is "Oh, you're a day-trader?" I have to tell them I don't day-trade, that's too much work and too little return. I'm an investor. This often leaves them looking puzzled which is the only clue I need to know that they don't understand how to harness the power of compounding.
@aubreymcfato and @StealthP3D How is a buy and hold strategy "compounding"?
Compounding would be if shares earned dividends in the form of shares or something... It's not compounding if it's just the value of our shares steadily increasing arithmetically, is it?
Buying and holding call options might be using leverage, -still not compounding without repeatedly rolling winnings into increasing numbers of shares or contracts or something.
Wouldn't compounding require something like getting dividends in the form of shares that themselves will grow into more shares?
What am I missing?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Based on pre-opening data, TSLA MaxPain for today's options expiration is estimated to be $975: Stock Option Max Pain
A cursory survey suggests that $980 may now be a more profitable target for big option writers (mainly hedge funds and market makers).
A cursory survey suggests that $980 may now be a more profitable target for big option writers (mainly hedge funds and market makers).
Last edited:
lafrisbee
Active Member
The only thing you want to compound is what is compounded... the money.
When we talk about Tesla growing at 40% per year, that's compounding growth. 2020 is 140% of 2019 and 2021 is 140% of 2020, so on and so forth. So by holding, you get to take part in every stage of that growth. If you jump in and out, not only you'll be missing out on some of that, you'll also be paying unnecessary capital gain tax. Compounding is not tied to dividend reinvesting.
Yap! Seen the same strategy happen multiple times. I think it was Q2 2019 that email was leaked that they could hit 100k and all the estimates shot up then they dropped the stock like a brick when it was only 95-97k. I think it quickly recovered as it was a new record but I’m sure some shorts escaped under that one. I hate moving targets. CNBC tried to say street est was 90k for Q1 this year when it was 79kLol, Dude! Do you remember that quarter (was it Q3 2018?) when Telsa actually BEAT their numbers, then the Financial Media ALL published false headlines and pre-written stories saying that Tesla posted a 'miss'?
Of course stories got corrected (3 days later). On page 13. After the MMs had readjusted their shortzes.
Cheers!
230,000 Fremont 100,000 Shanghai 2nd half of year. 196,750 1st half total. Could easily hit 550 thousand total this year.This is as good a time as any to go on the record with my prediction for 2020 Tesla vehicle production:
526,750 vehicles total in 2020
Now, 1.5 cyberbux for anyone who can guess how I got here; 5 cyberbux if you can guess where this is going...
Cheers!
Just wanted to remind everyone that I'm still the bull that I was when I said this as early as March
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Good analysis! Mine's based on working back from 4M vehicles produced in 2025 with a 1.5x growth multiple:
526,750 vehicles total in 2020
790,123 vehicles total in 2021
1,185,185 vehicles total in 2022
1,777,778 vehicles total in 2023
2,666,667 vehicles total in 2024
4,000,000 vehicles total in 2025
790,123 vehicles total in 2021
1,185,185 vehicles total in 2022
1,777,778 vehicles total in 2023
2,666,667 vehicles total in 2024
4,000,000 vehicles total in 2025
Now, these targets may sound fanciful and arbitary, but I'm here to tell you there's really no other way to do 'Logistics' at this scale and for a world-wide supply chain.
You have to tell each supplier what volumes, when to deliver, and tell them far enough in advance so they can be prepared. When the growth rate is very large, its even more important to provide multi-year production targets, so everyone can pull in the same direction. This is NOT a trivial undertaking.
Elon said: "The Model 3 rampup is one of the cleanest exponentials I have ever seen".
Tesla in 2025 said: "Hold my Beer!"
Cheers!
P.S. I see one of the 'bear' analysts reduced their 2020 production estimate to 450ish thouand, presumably because Tesla missed 7 weeks of production in Fremont and 7/52 * 363K = ~48k fewer vehicles.
This is false. Tesla is not production bound due to final assembly, or paint, or body. Tesla's production capacity at Fremont is now large enough that production is limited by logistics. You can not build a car without the windshields and air bags and wheels and tires and brakes...
So the 7 weeks lost at Fremont (but only 2-3 at Shanghai) will be easily made up AS LONG AS their suppliers deliver the contracted parts. They may need overtime, but they should be able to catch up by year end. I do not expect 2020 final Production numbers to be affected by the March shutdown.
Cheers!
Last edited:
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
