Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[PeterJA]

The Ford one I totally get. Their goal of 2050 is absurd. Why bother announcing that? It's like announcing their 2020 goal back in 1990. If our auto companies aren't carbon-neutral long before 2050, we have larger problems.

Also, the whole Model E thing still annoys Musk, methinks.

Methinks it would annoy me too, since Ford has done nothing with the name. Instead they called their BEV the "Mach-E" (aka Mockee), a name almost as dumb as Audi's "Etron" (French for "turd"). Ford threatened to sue Tesla reportedly because "Model E sounds too much like Model T," a claim so absurd that I'm surprised Tesla didn't fight it. Model T has been out of production for nearly a century, so the threat was just a slap to Tesla's face with no economic benefit to Ford.

Tesla offered to share their patents, offered to share their Supercharger network, and showed Ford the future of automobiles. In return, they got a slap in the face.

Well, a tsunami of karma is coming for Ford. I predict they will be bankrupt within one year of Cybertruck reaching volume production.

 

[Mike Smith]

I did want to say, while I know I'm very critical and vocal of Troy's methods for his estimates, his work in the early days was very crucial and important for investors. I would completely stop being critical if Troy waited until say the beginning of the 3rd month to put out his initial estimate and then revise from there throughout the rest of the month.

Forget the actual numbers early on, instead watch how they change and his reasons for why they are changing over time. That is the value of the early numbers.

 

[PeterJA]

Just a reminder to not despair if Tesla fails to meet inflated Q2 delivery expectations. This could be a bear trap.

Tesla don't need no stinking record deliveries in Q2 to be profitable and lock S&P 500 inclusion. They are pulling other profit levers, and have the secret weapon that @The Accountant pointed out months ago.

 

[Curt Renz]

Curt,

I am a possibilian, what we don’t know, is enormous compared to what we do know.

More than anything, I hope to live long to understand all that the James Webb Space Telescope reveals.

Keep an open mind, but no so open that your brains fall out.
James Oberg, NASA engineer and science writer

An open mind should not be confused with credulity.
From a personal communication to me by Craig F. Bohren, Ph.D.
Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Physics, Penn State Department of Meteorology

Nearly always people believe willingly that which they wish.
Julius Caesar

 

[Jack6591]

Keep an open mind, but no so open that your brains fall out.
James Oberg, NASA engineer and science writer

An open mind should not be confused with credulity.
From a personal communication to me by Craig F. Bohren, Ph.D.
Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Physics, Penn State Department of Meteorology

Nearly always people believe willingly that which they wish.
Julius Caesar

.


1 Corinthians 13:11

 

[Curt Renz]

.


1 Corinthians 13:11

When I was a child, I used to speak like a child, think like a child, reason like a child; when I became a man, I did away with childish things.

I'm not much of a fan of the bible, but that's a commendable comment.

 

[Jack6591]

When I was a child, I used to speak like a child, think like a child, reason like a child; when I became a man, I did away with childish things.

I'm not much of a fan of the bible, but that's a commendable comment.

That bible verse led me to science...

 

[TrendTrader007]

007
@TrendTrader007
·
14s

$TSLA One look at this long-term quarterly chart tells me that it is futile to be a bear on the stock at least for the next 4/4 It all depends on the circumstances but as of now it would be a huge error to sell the stock

 

[dl003]

007
@TrendTrader007
·
14s

$TSLA One look at this long-term quarterly chart tells me that it is futile to be a bear on the stock at least for the next 4/4 It all depends on the circumstances but as of now it would be a huge error to sell the stockView attachment 556910

There're legitimately 2 things on this board that give me anxiety every time I'm about to read it: the Coronavirus thread and your posts.

 

[TrendTrader007]

There're legitimately 2 things on this board that give me anxiety every time I'm about to read it: the Coronavirus thread and your posts.

007
@TrendTrader007
·
1s

$TSLA in fact the quarterly chart on nasdaq shows a similar pattern to early 1999 I would be a fool to bet against it and who is to say that Tesla is not going to do a QUALCOMM circa 1999

 

[JustSaying]

Just saw a truckload of Model Y’s headed south thru San Clemente

Tesla releases new solar panel, slashes prices - Electrek



Was there any speculation on the source of these panels?

Imported from China seems likely.

My invoice lists the solar panel are Q.Peak duo -G6+ 330-345

Q CELLS is one of the world´s largest and most recognized photovoltaic manufacturers for its high-performance, high-quality solar cells and modules. It is headquartered in Seoul, South Korea (Global Executive HQ) and Thalheim, Germany (Technology & Innovation HQ). Q CELLS offers the full spectrum of photovoltaic products, applications and solutions, from modules to systems to large scale solar power plants. Q CELLS is a flagship company of Hanwha Group, a FORTUNE Global 500 firm and a Top 8 business enterprise in South Korea. "

 

[FrankSG]

230,000 Fremont 100,000 Shanghai 2nd half of year. 196,750 1st half total. Could easily hit 550 thousand total this year.

You're predicting 110k delivered in Q2?

 

[dl003]

007
@TrendTrader007
·
1s

$TSLA in fact the quarterly chart on nasdaq shows a similar pattern to early 1999 I would be a fool to bet against it and who is to say that Tesla is not going to do a QUALCOMM circa 1999

And who am I to question you.
What's your read on macros?

 

[willow_hiller]

New companion website to the Big F'ing Field and Austin Says No: Tulsa Says Yes

It's actually quite funny.

 

[TrendTrader007]

And who am I to question you.
What's your read on macros?

$TSLA My 22 years of trading experience /intuition tells me that the single biggest mistake of my career that I just avoided last week was liquidating all my Tesla position All is well that ends well

 

[dl003]

You're predicting 110k delivered in Q2?

Elon secretly wished Fremont to be forced shut so that he could summon the real machines making the machines from his homeworld.

 

[JustSaying]

My invoice lists the solar panel are Q.Peak duo -G6+ 330-345

Q CELLS is one of the world´s largest and most recognized photovoltaic manufacturers for its high-performance, high-quality solar cells and modules. It is headquartered in Seoul, South Korea (Global Executive HQ) and Thalheim, Germany (Technology & Innovation HQ). Q CELLS offers the full spectrum of photovoltaic products, applications and solutions, from modules to systems to large scale solar power plants. Q CELLS is a flagship company of Hanwha Group, a FORTUNE Global 500 firm and a Top 8 business enterprise in South Korea. "

BTW , at 12:30 pm today I saw 2 truckloads of new Teslas eastbound on the I10 a few miles west of the 111.

 

[AZRI11]

You're predicting 110k delivered in Q2?

I'm sorry. Should've made it clearer, "production totals"

 

[FrankSG]

Good analysis! Mine's based on working back from 4M vehicles produced in 2025 with a 1.5x growth multiple:

526,750 vehicles total in 2020
790,123 vehicles total in 2021
1,185,185 vehicles total in 2022
1,777,778 vehicles total in 2023
2,666,667 vehicles total in 2024
4,000,000 vehicles total in 2025​

Now, these targets may sound fanciful and arbitary, but I'm here to tell you there's really no other way to do 'Logistics' at this scale and for a world-wide supply chain.

I'll take the over on these numbers. Especially 2021 should be much higher than 790k.

Actually, out of these 6 numbers, I'm least confident about Tesla hitting the 527k in 2020. I think 2021-2023 are almost certainly going to be higher, and 2024 and 2025 are a bit hard to predict at this point.

Tesla's production capacity today:
Fremont S+X: 80k (90k, but demand might not be there, so let's say 80k)
Fremont 3+Y: 400k
Shanghai 3: 200k
Total: 680k

Tesla's production capacity end of 2020:
Fremont S+X: 80k
Fremont 3+Y: 500k
Shanghai 3: 250k
Total: 830k

Tesla's production capacity end of 2021:
Fremont: 580k
Shanghai 3: 250k
Shanghai Y: 250k at least, quite possibly more.
Berlin: Just starting to ramp
Texas: Cybertruck should be starting?
Nevada: Semi?
Total: 1,080k+

Tesla's production capacity end of 2022:
Fremont: 580k
Shanghai 3+Y: 500k+
Berlin: 250k+, hard to predict exactly at this point.
Texas: Hard to predict, but should be at least 100-200k Cyber, and perhaps Y production too.
Nevada: There should be semi production, but hard to say how many. Maybe 50k/year?
Total: 2M-ish?

There's not enough visibility beyond the next 2-3 years to make any accurate guesses, but I'll be surprised if Tesla's production capacity and deliveries don't grow in excess of 50% for the next couple of years.

 

[vikings123]

$TSLA My 22 years of trading experience /intuition tells me that the single biggest mistake of my career that I just avoided last week was liquidating all my Tesla position All is well that ends well

Serious question: Can you educate us on what the chart is telling you? I mean you just went from selling everything to load up the truck so I assume there was something you saw in the chart that made you change your mind?