Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Favguy]

And, if we were all androids, making this decision would be literally a no-brainer. But since we're humans, with emotions, and relationships, and distractions, and responsibilities, and all the fears and baggage these things involve... the mathematically correct decision isn't always the personally correct decision.

(And to call it the mathematically correct decision is already supposing that there was some sort of guarantee of future performance.)

While general advice is fine as far as it goes, we're all an experiment of one.

That's a perfectly valid counter. One of the advantages of being slightly autistic is I don't get so affected by the emotional side of things and tend to focus intently on the most logical solution with the best probability of financial gain I'm a pain in the arse to live with though!

 

[Favguy]

If one can afford to do that, then do it. I cannot. As I said above, everyone's situation is different and if it hadn't have been for Tesla and a few other stocks in the past ten years since I had to exit the work world 10 years early and unexpectedly, I might be able to do what you propose. However, while I'm damn lucky to have been able to live fairly well, it hasn't been easy. I don't even know if I'll be alive in 10 years let alone 20, so I would much rather get rid of my monetary obligations and live as debt free as possible, while still retaining a majority of my Tesla stock.

And that's all I'm gonna say about that.

Fair point, and I've altered the last line of my post to something more appropriate.

 

[lafrisbee]

I kinda remember some time this week mentioning the MMs were having issues holding TSLA below 1400 and they were buying back those Call strikes by offering good prices. The hilarious part and I mean outstanding ROTFLMAO part is those MMs were rolling them to.... 1500 strikes! and we closed above that. OH this is a great day.
Remember how I said I was not going to bet on the top this week? Well..... Thursday it looked like they were going to manage to keep it down so I sold a CALL spread between 1460 and 1470 for some pennies in front of the steam roller. This morning when I woke up and reviewed where the options chart had settled I IMMEDIATELY bought those back on the MMD. Lucky for that dip because I made some pennies. I should listen to myself next time. I got lucky today. Note to self. DO NOT SELL CALLS when you tell yourself not to sell calls!

Now go look at what the volume says about next week. 27,000 Calls with a strike of $1500 moved around. We do not know how many were simply noise back and worth but I see a push down attempt next week. Lets see if they start buying those back or push down harder. I think the MMs have lost control completely.

Next week's Option volume from today......
View attachment 563163

Next weeks open interest and max pain:
View attachment 563166

I don't have much time to post and next week might be none. The housing market is sky rocketing. I am trying to purchase some property and the houses I am looking at are selling in hours. I've missed two bids by 10 minutes. The last one I was the second person seeing the house.
My parents just sold their Florida house in 2 hours (20k over average prices) no one toured the house, just a virtual tour. I am mentioning this just to show an idea of how hot the economy is right now even with this whole CV19 thing. Honestly I don't get it.

I think this dovetails in with my theory about a whale attack on the MM's.

 

[vikings123]

What a Hiro! Well said Hiro San!

“Who, Elon or Warren, has more money doesn’t really matter. But how they made it and what they would use it for really matters. Making money with sweat and use it for future”

https://twitter.com/hiromichimizuno/status/1281739273394204672?s=21

 

[Prunesquallor]

You understand it probably wasn't the best mathematical decision. Therefore, your decision was an informed one.

As was mine. The surprise “morgage burning” dinner I had with my wife and friends was priceless.

 

[Runarbt]

What is all that talk about inclusion of S&P 500 priced in? Are the fund managers of these ETF's allowed to buy TSLA already, even if there isn't an official announcement?

PS. Share closed above $2,000 today. That is $2,000 Canadian..

just bs.. nothing is ever fully priced in until it is a fact.

Not Q2 profit
Not SP500 inclusion
and then SP500 funds will start buying
and then battery day

 

[Artful Dodger]

Hi folks,

Great day, wot? I am a long-term HODL'er, w.zero margin, and 100% in equity (no derivatives at all). Today, my leveraged returns were 4.5x the SP. How is this possible?

More specifically, today TSLA was up +10.29% but my Investment Account balance is up +48.9% today (4.54x). Yes, in just this single day. Da'fuq, you ask?

It's the magic of compounding. You see, my dollar cost average is under $275. That is how much I paid, on average, to buy each of my shares. But today, those shares went up $150 for EACH SHARE. That's is about a 54.5% return. And it's over 4.5x today's % increase in the SP (again, about +10.29% today).

And it's not just some stats trick. In absolute dollar terms, my Investment Account went up by over 54% of the amount of 'seed money' I put in 27 mths ago. In ONE DAY. Even discounting cash at 2.67% per year (ie: 30-d Note), that's still a solid 50% return.

And again, I want to emphasize that's TODAY's returns, not this weeks's or this month's. Indeed, lifetime this account is up more than 450% over these past 27 months.

Now, I occasionally do partake in a small amount of swing trading (<10% of my balance). Lifetime it's about 2:1 gains vs losses but a LOT more STRESS! Especially when buy'n'hold long-term can lead to the type of leveraged returns that I'm enjoying now.

See? It's the magic of compounding. Just HODL, and your shares will turn magic too.

Cheers!

Paging @Hock1 @StealthP3D

 

[Prunesquallor]

*I* like your thinking. If the "news" surfaces in the next day or so, we'll know.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

Looks like Musky’s kickbacks to his Third Row acolytes are paying off for shareholders!

 

[smorgasbord]

Hi folks,

Great day, wot? I am a long-term HODL'er, w.zero margin, and 100% in equity (no derivatives at all). Today, my leveraged returns were 4.5x the SP. How is this possible?

More specifically, today TSLA was up +10.29% but my Investment Account balance is up +48.9% today (4.54x). Yes, in just this single day. Da'fuq, you ask?

It's the magic of compounding. You see, my dollar cost average is under $275. That is how much I paid, on average, to buy each of my shares. But today, those shares went up $150 for EACH SHARE. That's is about a 54.5% return. And it's over 4.5x today's % increase in the SP (again, about +10.29% today).

And it's not just some stats trick. In absolute dollar terms, my Investment Account went up by over 54% of the amount of 'seed money' I put in 27 mths ago. In ONE DAY. Even discounting cash at 2.67% per year (ie: 30-d Note), that's still a solid 50% return.

And again, I want to emphasize that's TODAY's returns, not this weeks's or this month's. Indeed, lifetime this account is up more than 450% over these past 27 months.

Now, I occasionally do partake in a small amount of swing trading (<10% of my balance). Lifetime it's about 2:1 gains vs losses but a LOT more STRESS! Especially when buy'n'hold long-term can lead to the type of leveraged returns that I'm enjoying now.

See? It's the magic of compounding. Just HODL, and your shares will turn magic too.

Cheers!

Paging @Hock1 @StealthP3D

In my view, references to "seed money" and "today's returns" and the like are indeed stats trick. Real compounding is measured as CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate).

For instance, I bought TSLA shares in 2011 at under $23. Still have them. Today, the CAGR on them is just under 60%. Good, but not great.

I also bought shares at $235, which give me a better return. How? I bought them just over a year ago, so the CAGR on them is well over 500%.

What's important is the CAGR for your whole portfolio over the period of time in which you've invested.

 

[StealthP3D]

I don't know. It looks to me like the manipulators have been having to expend a lot of resources to keep a lid on TSLA and it might be about ready to get away from them.

I don't make too many daily predictions but if I see something that looks unusual I might share it. I posted this about 20 minutes before the price exploded today.

 

[bhtooefr]

FYI, re: Robinhood:

Robinhood users bought today. And all this week, too.

399,045 users holding at open, somewhere between 404,831 and 407,457 holding at close (it swung that hard across the close), and continued up to 408,540 at the end of after-hours trading.

 

[StealthP3D]

The shareholder meeting at Fremont will probably be outdoors in a large parking lot, maybe under a tent. So should be pretty safe I think. But if they give tours of the nearby battery plant, probably have to load people on buses, I wouldn't do that part.

Just buy a positive pressure ventilation hazmat suit with HEPA filters. I bet you could find a li-ion powered one for under $4-8k.

 

[lafrisbee]

I don't make too many daily predictions but if I see something that looks unusual I might share it. I posted this about 20 minutes before the price exploded today.

yes, but I think the "explosion" was all about the planned timing of a whale or group of whales bear attack ( I hope that is the right term?). It was the buying that was concerted at roughly 12:30. The volume was low in the AM, and especially low the hour previous to when the buying "exploded."
I think the buyers would have preferred the MM's keep the price at $1380. And the buyers had a set plan based on the price... the buyers/whales pulled back buying en masse once the stock got to about $1460 (they did their math days before), and then they let their foot off the gas, allowing the MM's to spoon feed them at that rate. But all restraint was abandoned when with an hour left the whales figured if they didn't buy all they were going to need before the day ended then they would lose their time/knowledge advantage.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

The shareholder meeting at Fremont will probably be outdoors in a large parking lot, maybe under a tent. So should be pretty safe I think. But if they give tours of the nearby battery plant, probably have to load people on buses, I wouldn't do that part.

No need. On current trend, Covid cases should be close to zero by then

 

[Bet TSLA]

Hi folks,

Great day, wot? I am a long-term HODL'er, w.zero margin, and 100% in equity (no derivatives at all). Today, my leveraged returns were 4.5x the SP. How is this possible?

More specifically, today TSLA was up +10.29% but my Investment Account balance is up +48.9% today (4.54x). Yes, in just this single day. Da'fuq, you ask?

It's the magic of compounding. You see, my dollar cost average is under $275. That is how much I paid, on average, to buy each of my shares. But today, those shares went up $150 for EACH SHARE. That's is about a 54.5% return. And it's over 4.5x today's % increase in the SP (again, about +10.29% today).

And it's not just some stats trick. In absolute dollar terms, my Investment Account went up by over 54% of the amount of 'seed money' I put in 27 mths ago. In ONE DAY. Even discounting cash at 2.67% per year (ie: 30-d Note), that's still a solid 50% return.

And again, I want to emphasize that's TODAY's returns, not this weeks's or this month's. Indeed, lifetime this account is up more than 450% over these past 27 months.

Now, I occasionally do partake in a small amount of swing trading (<10% of my balance). Lifetime it's about 2:1 gains vs losses but a LOT more STRESS! Especially when buy'n'hold long-term can lead to the type of leveraged returns that I'm enjoying now.

See? It's the magic of compounding. Just HODL, and your shares will turn magic too.

Cheers!

Paging @Hock1 @StealthP3D

Is this intended to be something other than gibberish? I have no idea what you're talking about.

 

[vikings123]

Lolz.

https://twitter.com/johnvoelcker/status/1281610091490312193?s=19



Manifest itself, he says. Lolol.

Trevor has the master plan lol.

 

[Yoona]

Investing well is largely a matter of avoiding mistakes ... Never sell a stock simply because it's worth a lot more than you paid for it ...

100% agree. The ultimate goal of investing is for one to get wealthy, not to get rich. This is what the 1% understands, and what the 99% don't get.

The secret to getting wealthy is to accumulate assets - from the book "Rich Dad, Poor Dad"

TSLA is an appreciating asset. Cash is soon spent before you know it.

 

[Off Shore]

The whales knew (figured out) something. Something not known to the public(yet). They also knew they needed to act on that information before it became known to us all.

Please consider the possibility that the something is stuff we already know here.

 

[Yoona]

Literally one of the worst decisions you can make is paying off a mortgage early. The mistake is hugely multiplied if you are a succesfull investor.

So true. I even went further many times. Instead of paying off mortgage, I extend it to as many years as I can, and make only the minimum payment. The extra $ I have monthly is then invested. The returns are much, much, much more than the mortgage interest.

That is the very first lesson I learned in investing - USE OTHER PEOPLE'S MONEY. Mortgage interest is so low, it's practically free.