Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

From TechCrunch.com:
It’s not clear just how many Polestar 2 vehicles will be produced; Polestar has told TechCrunch that it is in the “tens of thousands” of cars per calendar year. Those numbers will also depend on demand for the Polestar 2 and other models that are built in the same factory.

You know, thinking about it, I can imagine they might have some very interesting TV commercials... definitely for a mature audience.

 

[MC3OZ]

You're right that even with the greatest stretch of imagination this "3650 miles battery" announcement in the near future is pure fantasy. However, there is still a good chance that something fundamentally new is coming sooner than we expect.

Why they dropped "cell building" from Giga Berlin drawings? Certainly not because of saving money. It's entirely possible that Tesla has learnt a completely new way to produce huge amounts of cells&packs. Maybe related to getting rid of coating&drying process or new easier materials as mentioned in the video linked by Curt. I'm not saying the Berlin construction plans definitely changed because of some battery manufacturing breakthroughs, but it's quite possible IMO. We'll likely get to know in September.

BTW. If someone has better information about Berlin cell supply plans please share.

I think you are right about Giga Berlin, my thought are similar... the packs will be produced in Europe, possibly eventually at the factory regardless of the changed plans...

Navigating the approvals process is part of the issue, but that mostly needs time, so perhaps things are just being done in stages.

I think if they do make packs at GF Berlin, it will be "production ready" Battery Day tech... which will itself be a step change... and probably game over for ICE.

The video Curt link seems to me like it is R&D on next generation battery tech, and I think there are 2 strong future use cases.

1. Combine a 25 kWh million mile battery pack with a 200 kWh high density pack, perhaps the combined weight may be less than a conventional 50 kWh pack. For daily driving the 25 kWh pack is mostly used, the 200 kWh pack is kept at optimal SOC and then Supercharged as needed on long trips.. 70 cycles is not that much of an issue if the battery is rarely fully cycled.

2. As others have pointed out battery power air travel needs high energy density... for that use 70 cycles might mean the battery is replaced every 140 flights... if the battery can be recycled this is no big deal, the extra expense from regular battery replacement is not such a big deal for this application...

For long distance shipping, hydrogen and flow batteries are also in the mix, but ships will have batteries, need something more like million mile chemistry IMO.. How that plays out is anyone's guess, but shipping is the one area where I can make a case for hydrogen..

 

[marvinat0rz]

Yes, the first million is the hardest. Even though he was a buy and hold investor before making millions in business, those millions probably made it a lot easier to buy/hold. At least it does for most people. The reason is that you already have "enough" and are not so afraid to lose some on a bet here or there. And that's why I advise people to disassociate from their money and to not think of stocks as being money. And to figure out how to live fulfilling lives without spending a lot.

What you're pointing out here is the heart of the disagreement we had a few days back, and I feel it's a point that's worth emphasizing further. Money has different "utility values" at different points in life, and this is also affected by personal preferences. For someone who e.g. considers most paid work a chore and a necessary evil, or has a family, it might be a rational choice to e.g. sell (parts of) an expected winner for diversification to other income-generating assets, leading to a very high likelihood of having complete freedom over one's time and career choices forever. In this situation, reducing the risk of a big (even temporary) drawdown might outweigh a higher expected return.

While, as you point out, reaching a position of complete economic independence is likely to make it much easier to make investment decisions that are purely expected to yield the highest returns. Such investments will usually have a volatility that's hard to stomach if one's personal situation means a couple of $100k is a life-changing amount of money. I think this is big part of the reason why we see so many compounding fortunes after the $1 million mark. The people capable of disassociating from volatility and risk without a heavy wealth cushion are a rare breed, so for most it takes extreme focus to keep cool in that situation. With a million or two in the bank....meh, who cares. You can do almost whatever you want regardless of what happens. Feelings are dampened, leading to investment decisions that are driven by expected return to a much greater degree.

Selling big part of a winning stock with future potential for something non-compounding like a remodel or a car is rarely a sound choice IMHO. Diversification to a different income-generating asset could be, in the situation outlined above. In that case, it's probably healthy to be aware that one might give up a fortune that's multiples higher, and make a considered choice. Happy & safe regardless of money situation? Go for it.

Everyone wishes they'd bought bitcoin at $.5. Almost no working person would have held to >$1000, or even close. A rare few would have kept a double-digit percentage to $17k and back down to a few thousand. Whereas capital class people will find it much easier to make cold decisions.

Edit:

A need to constantly spend money makes money seem scarce and that is not a winning mindset. You want a mindset that you already have more than you need.

Perfectly agree with this. Of course, the most effective way to enter this mindset is to actually have more than you need already

From what I see on this forum, we probably have a fair amount of members that are capable of disassociating investment returns from strong emotional reactions. But this is actually a very rare trait, especially when combined with a life that's healthy in all other ways, and the frequency of this type of people shows that this is a quite rare online community.

 

[MC3OZ]

Just keeping track of Tesla Innovation is practically a full time job...

https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1281215435426263042

This first one might be a picture of a Plaid drive, even if it isn't, we know Plaid drive is not far away..

Tesla filed a patent 'Packaged device having embedded array of components'

I actually don't have much idea what this patent is about, and neither does the author of the article, the picture of the FSD board probably adds nothing...

The patent seems to be about AC to DC conversion, so possibly relevant to V2G...

I would need more time to read it... and think about it..

EDIT:: It may be about placement of components on circuit boards more generally, so have wider application allowing more compact boards... but AC to DC conversion was an example referenced.

 

[Mo City]

Index futures are up slightly, continuing to look forward to recovery while ignoring the employment outlook and pandemic trend.

A lot will depend on what congress does later this month, particularly on unemployment assistance. I'm confident of an extension with less generous terms.

 

[Causalien]

Ok, this is way too long but since it's still the weekend and the discussions are all over the place anyway, I'll combine the story telling how I got into Tesla with an actual need for advice. All numbers in usd to make it easier.

tl/dr at the end.

I'm 50+. I have about $2k in my bank account and not much income at the moment because the virus wiped out the industry I'm in for now. Although that is slowly improving. Live in Scandinavia so no need to save for healthcare and in a decade or so I'll have basic retirement enough for rent and food but not much else. No other savings. Nobody knows I have this investment. Not even the girlfriend. No need to support anyone but myself. I don't think I've made much more than $30k in a year ever. Personally choice. Work as little as possibly. Travel a lot. Work with what I want instead of what pays well. Not quite a hippie but I've been called that.

I now have 200 shares. Might not sound like much to many of you but I had zero savings two years ago and had never owned a single stock. I unexpectedly had $15k which I somehow managed to turn into 200 shares in 18 months. Mostly through multipliers (see below) and one successful sell high/buy low. Another sell/buy almost ended badly so I'm not touching my shares again. They are for a better/earlier retirement now.

I now also have over $50k in these 5x multipliers. Bought these latest ones when the stock was at around $1k. Starting to get really nervous for when I'm gonna exit these. All this talk about $2-2,5k in the short term is not helping. They'll be worth something like $125k at $2000 and $250k+ at $2500

Taxes is not an issue.

So far I've been treating this as a big gamble. If it works, it works. If it don’t, I'm not really much worse of. That's beginning to change though. Even if the share price falls 50% I'll still have ten times what I started with.

At the same time I have zero other savings, still all in on Tesla, so I can't really justify converting these to more Tesla shares even though that would probably be the smart thing in the long run.

I know I've been extremely lucky. Not only that Tesla existed but also that I somehow made mostly correct assumptions about when to buy/sell. Had I had those original $15k at any other time the last 10 years I would have needed them for daily life. Wouldn't even have thought of investing. And if I had invested in Tesla at any time before early 2019, I would have gotten out because I would have needed the money. I know for certain that I will not get a second chance making an investment this profitable.

The only thing that wasn't luck was that I actually studied full time for almost three weeks before deciding where to invest. The idea was that I needed something that gave me 10-20 times the money over 5-10 years to really make an impact. I looked into and could have bought something in solar/wind or even mining for minerals needed for batteries etc. Looked into 3D printing and robots. But I couldn't find one company that stood out and was the likely winner. The whole sectors wouldn't explode enough. I needed to find the winner in a winning sector and go all in. My first choice was SpaceX. Spent a day reading up before I realized there was no way to invest.

For some reason I hadn't really thought of cars, but SpaceX led me to Tesla. Spent a week reading and watching videos before buying in. Loved the cars but in the end it was the energy part that made me decide. Strangely enough for a different reason I had had a brief interest in batteries a few years earlier when a relative was getting solar for their summerhouse which is why I have a 2016 registration here. Had totally forgotten about that when I tried to register again in 2019.

My original plan with my first 50 shares was to hold for 5-10 years and if everything worked out perfectly the stock goes to $5-10k. Could I really have $2 million in Tsla with little else though? The exchange rate fluctuations alone could be over $10k many days. That would be tough.

Great problem to have and it might never happen. Tesla might stall. Not sure why but anything can happen. Hey, I got rich (kinda), for awhile at least, who would have thought.

What would you do? Sell the multipliers tomorrow morning? Take the $50k? If I don't and we go down to $1400 it'll be $25k instead. Hold until July 22? When it might be worth $250k or whatever. Potentially make another round of, for me, life changing money? I probably know the correct answer is sell some and keep some but for the first time I feel this is for real. It might not be enough for an island, unless it's really small, but it would be enough for me.

I am obviously not afraid to play the odds but the stakes are getting high. If I sell or not, it'll feel like forever until earnings report arrives though.

tl/dr. Made some money. No idea what to do.

Sell half, or convert all to shares. Then forget about the fact that you have it.
Focus on finding a job or ways to make more money, if you really want to increase your wealth. From what you've said, you are really not about gaining wealth and instead is all about that traveling life. Either way, the wealth in TSLA should not be affecting you. Leave it there and forget it.

 

[Intl Professor]

Ok, this is way too long but since it's still the weekend and the discussions are all over the place anyway, I'll combine the story telling how I got into Tesla with an actual need for advice. All numbers in usd to make it easier.

tl/dr at the end.

I'm 50+. I have about $2k in my bank account and not much income at the moment because the virus wiped out the industry I'm in for now. Although that is slowly improving. Live in Scandinavia so no need to save for healthcare and in a decade or so I'll have basic retirement enough for rent and food but not much else. No other savings. Nobody knows I have this investment. Not even the girlfriend. No need to support anyone but myself. I don't think I've made much more than $30k in a year ever. Personally choice. Work as little as possibly. Travel a lot. Work with what I want instead of what pays well. Not quite a hippie but I've been called that.

I now have 200 shares. Might not sound like much to many of you but I had zero savings two years ago and had never owned a single stock. I unexpectedly had $15k which I somehow managed to turn into 200 shares in 18 months. Mostly through multipliers (see below) and one successful sell high/buy low. Another sell/buy almost ended badly so I'm not touching my shares again. They are for a better/earlier retirement now.

I now also have over $50k in these 5x multipliers. Bought these latest ones when the stock was at around $1k. Starting to get really nervous for when I'm gonna exit these. All this talk about $2-2,5k in the short term is not helping. They'll be worth something like $125k at $2000 and $250k+ at $2500

Taxes is not an issue.

So far I've been treating this as a big gamble. If it works, it works. If it don’t, I'm not really much worse of. That's beginning to change though. Even if the share price falls 50% I'll still have ten times what I started with.

At the same time I have zero other savings, still all in on Tesla, so I can't really justify converting these to more Tesla shares even though that would probably be the smart thing in the long run.

I know I've been extremely lucky. Not only that Tesla existed but also that I somehow made mostly correct assumptions about when to buy/sell. Had I had those original $15k at any other time the last 10 years I would have needed them for daily life. Wouldn't even have thought of investing. And if I had invested in Tesla at any time before early 2019, I would have gotten out because I would have needed the money. I know for certain that I will not get a second chance making an investment this profitable.

The only thing that wasn't luck was that I actually studied full time for almost three weeks before deciding where to invest. The idea was that I needed something that gave me 10-20 times the money over 5-10 years to really make an impact. I looked into and could have bought something in solar/wind or even mining for minerals needed for batteries etc. Looked into 3D printing and robots. But I couldn't find one company that stood out and was the likely winner. The whole sectors wouldn't explode enough. I needed to find the winner in a winning sector and go all in. My first choice was SpaceX. Spent a day reading up before I realized there was no way to invest.

For some reason I hadn't really thought of cars, but SpaceX led me to Tesla. Spent a week reading and watching videos before buying in. Loved the cars but in the end it was the energy part that made me decide. Strangely enough for a different reason I had had a brief interest in batteries a few years earlier when a relative was getting solar for their summerhouse which is why I have a 2016 registration here. Had totally forgotten about that when I tried to register again in 2019.

My original plan with my first 50 shares was to hold for 5-10 years and if everything worked out perfectly the stock goes to $5-10k. Could I really have $2 million in Tsla with little else though? The exchange rate fluctuations alone could be over $10k many days. That would be tough.

Great problem to have and it might never happen. Tesla might stall. Not sure why but anything can happen. Hey, I got rich (kinda), for awhile at least, who would have thought.

What would you do? Sell the multipliers tomorrow morning? Take the $50k? If I don't and we go down to $1400 it'll be $25k instead. Hold until July 22? When it might be worth $250k or whatever. Potentially make another round of, for me, life changing money? I probably know the correct answer is sell some and keep some but for the first time I feel this is for real. It might not be enough for an island, unless it's really small, but it would be enough for me.

I am obviously not afraid to play the odds but the stakes are getting high. If I sell or not, it'll feel like forever until earnings report arrives though.

tl/dr. Made some money. No idea what to do.

Speculate only with money you can afford to lose. You have to specify for yourself the numbers to be detailed. We are all condemned to remain free, thanks to advice from a snake. Not an advice, just a statement of our condition.

 

[Causalien]

We might see 100k/share tomorrow. It is possible. If you don’t agree, explain how it’s not.

Printer can't print 20 Trillion in a day.

 

[ggr]

When do you expect that hard drop to happen?

A while after lots of people say it will happen, and just before a bunch of people say "What just happened?".

 

[Prunesquallor]

Don't know about that, but last week in a discussion with the wife I did comment "I've got a million dollars and I drive a Tesla, can you possibly imagine how much pussy I could get?"

We're an "old couple" and both laughed...

That’s funny, and I’m trying to imagine a situation where I could use that line (with the addition “and I’m wearing a Rolex”) with my wife present.

I’m not yet seeing it.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Index futures are up slightly, continuing to look forward to recovery while ignoring the employment outlook and pandemic trend.

A lot will depend on what congress does later this month, particularly on unemployment assistance. I'm confident of an extension with less generous terms.

Q2 earnings season is starting and it's going to be a huge catalyst starting Tuesday. The market is heading for a reckoning, one way or another.

 

[wipster]

Ok, this is way too long but since it's still the weekend and the discussions are all over the place anyway, I'll combine the story telling how I got into Tesla with an actual need for advice. All numbers in usd to make it easier.

tl/dr at the end.

I'm 50+. I have about $2k in my bank account and not much income at the moment because the virus wiped out the industry I'm in for now. Although that is slowly improving. Live in Scandinavia so no need to save for healthcare and in a decade or so I'll have basic retirement enough for rent and food but not much else. No other savings. Nobody knows I have this investment. Not even the girlfriend. No need to support anyone but myself. I don't think I've made much more than $30k in a year ever. Personally choice. Work as little as possibly. Travel a lot. Work with what I want instead of what pays well. Not quite a hippie but I've been called that.

I now have 200 shares. Might not sound like much to many of you but I had zero savings two years ago and had never owned a single stock. I unexpectedly had $15k which I somehow managed to turn into 200 shares in 18 months. Mostly through multipliers (see below) and one successful sell high/buy low. Another sell/buy almost ended badly so I'm not touching my shares again. They are for a better/earlier retirement now.

I now also have over $50k in these 5x multipliers. Bought these latest ones when the stock was at around $1k. Starting to get really nervous for when I'm gonna exit these. All this talk about $2-2,5k in the short term is not helping. They'll be worth something like $125k at $2000 and $250k+ at $2500

Taxes is not an issue.

So far I've been treating this as a big gamble. If it works, it works. If it don’t, I'm not really much worse of. That's beginning to change though. Even if the share price falls 50% I'll still have ten times what I started with.

At the same time I have zero other savings, still all in on Tesla, so I can't really justify converting these to more Tesla shares even though that would probably be the smart thing in the long run.

I know I've been extremely lucky. Not only that Tesla existed but also that I somehow made mostly correct assumptions about when to buy/sell. Had I had those original $15k at any other time the last 10 years I would have needed them for daily life. Wouldn't even have thought of investing. And if I had invested in Tesla at any time before early 2019, I would have gotten out because I would have needed the money. I know for certain that I will not get a second chance making an investment this profitable.

The only thing that wasn't luck was that I actually studied full time for almost three weeks before deciding where to invest. The idea was that I needed something that gave me 10-20 times the money over 5-10 years to really make an impact. I looked into and could have bought something in solar/wind or even mining for minerals needed for batteries etc. Looked into 3D printing and robots. But I couldn't find one company that stood out and was the likely winner. The whole sectors wouldn't explode enough. I needed to find the winner in a winning sector and go all in. My first choice was SpaceX. Spent a day reading up before I realized there was no way to invest.

For some reason I hadn't really thought of cars, but SpaceX led me to Tesla. Spent a week reading and watching videos before buying in. Loved the cars but in the end it was the energy part that made me decide. Strangely enough for a different reason I had had a brief interest in batteries a few years earlier when a relative was getting solar for their summerhouse which is why I have a 2016 registration here. Had totally forgotten about that when I tried to register again in 2019.

My original plan with my first 50 shares was to hold for 5-10 years and if everything worked out perfectly the stock goes to $5-10k. Could I really have $2 million in Tsla with little else though? The exchange rate fluctuations alone could be over $10k many days. That would be tough.

Great problem to have and it might never happen. Tesla might stall. Not sure why but anything can happen. Hey, I got rich (kinda), for awhile at least, who would have thought.

What would you do? Sell the multipliers tomorrow morning? Take the $50k? If I don't and we go down to $1400 it'll be $25k instead. Hold until July 22? When it might be worth $250k or whatever. Potentially make another round of, for me, life changing money? I probably know the correct answer is sell some and keep some but for the first time I feel this is for real. It might not be enough for an island, unless it's really small, but it would be enough for me.

I am obviously not afraid to play the odds but the stakes are getting high. If I sell or not, it'll feel like forever until earnings report arrives though.

tl/dr. Made some money. No idea what to do.

My friend, I am just a poor country HODLer, so do not consider this investment advice. But take a look at Smorgasbord's post a page or so back and take that into consideration. If you don't need the cash for anything specific, I would not be in a hurry to sell those 5x instruments. Things are looking pretty good for Tesla right now, and barring anything dramatic happening, I don't see it ending anytime soon. Stock price may go down later in the year, but I have a lot of confidence that major investors have finally seen the light. Again, not an advice but I think you get my meaning.

 

[Prunesquallor]

You know, thinking about it, I can imagine they might have some very interesting TV commercials... definitely for a mature audience.

“American Pole Star”™

 

[Off Shore]

It's amazing how stealthily they were able to bring that Chinese construction crew in...

Maybe not the whole crew...

 

[traxila]

Printer can't print 20 Trillion in a day.

Sure it can. It’s digital.

 

[StealthP3D]

We might see 100k/share tomorrow. It is possible. If you don’t agree, explain how it’s not.

Not possible. Even uber-bulls like Ron Barron would immediately sell all his shares as fast as practical somewhere well below $100K. And so would other large holders. I know I would sell before it got there.

Do you have any idea what that would make the market cap?

 

[EVortex]

Ok, this is way too long but since it's still the weekend and the discussions are all over the place anyway, I'll combine the story telling how I got into Tesla with an actual need for advice. All numbers in usd to make it easier.

tl/dr at the end.

I'm 50+. I have about $2k in my bank account and not much income at the moment because the virus wiped out the industry I'm in for now. Although that is slowly improving. Live in Scandinavia so no need to save for healthcare and in a decade or so I'll have basic retirement enough for rent and food but not much else. No other savings. Nobody knows I have this investment. Not even the girlfriend. No need to support anyone but myself. I don't think I've made much more than $30k in a year ever. Personally choice. Work as little as possibly. Travel a lot. Work with what I want instead of what pays well. Not quite a hippie but I've been called that.

I now have 200 shares. Might not sound like much to many of you but I had zero savings two years ago and had never owned a single stock. I unexpectedly had $15k which I somehow managed to turn into 200 shares in 18 months. Mostly through multipliers (see below) and one successful sell high/buy low. Another sell/buy almost ended badly so I'm not touching my shares again. They are for a better/earlier retirement now.

I now also have over $50k in these 5x multipliers. Bought these latest ones when the stock was at around $1k. Starting to get really nervous for when I'm gonna exit these. All this talk about $2-2,5k in the short term is not helping. They'll be worth something like $125k at $2000 and $250k+ at $2500

Taxes is not an issue.

So far I've been treating this as a big gamble. If it works, it works. If it don’t, I'm not really much worse of. That's beginning to change though. Even if the share price falls 50% I'll still have ten times what I started with.

At the same time I have zero other savings, still all in on Tesla, so I can't really justify converting these to more Tesla shares even though that would probably be the smart thing in the long run.

I know I've been extremely lucky. Not only that Tesla existed but also that I somehow made mostly correct assumptions about when to buy/sell. Had I had those original $15k at any other time the last 10 years I would have needed them for daily life. Wouldn't even have thought of investing. And if I had invested in Tesla at any time before early 2019, I would have gotten out because I would have needed the money. I know for certain that I will not get a second chance making an investment this profitable.

The only thing that wasn't luck was that I actually studied full time for almost three weeks before deciding where to invest. The idea was that I needed something that gave me 10-20 times the money over 5-10 years to really make an impact. I looked into and could have bought something in solar/wind or even mining for minerals needed for batteries etc. Looked into 3D printing and robots. But I couldn't find one company that stood out and was the likely winner. The whole sectors wouldn't explode enough. I needed to find the winner in a winning sector and go all in. My first choice was SpaceX. Spent a day reading up before I realized there was no way to invest.

For some reason I hadn't really thought of cars, but SpaceX led me to Tesla. Spent a week reading and watching videos before buying in. Loved the cars but in the end it was the energy part that made me decide. Strangely enough for a different reason I had had a brief interest in batteries a few years earlier when a relative was getting solar for their summerhouse which is why I have a 2016 registration here. Had totally forgotten about that when I tried to register again in 2019.

My original plan with my first 50 shares was to hold for 5-10 years and if everything worked out perfectly the stock goes to $5-10k. Could I really have $2 million in Tsla with little else though? The exchange rate fluctuations alone could be over $10k many days. That would be tough.

Great problem to have and it might never happen. Tesla might stall. Not sure why but anything can happen. Hey, I got rich (kinda), for awhile at least, who would have thought.

What would you do? Sell the multipliers tomorrow morning? Take the $50k? If I don't and we go down to $1400 it'll be $25k instead. Hold until July 22? When it might be worth $250k or whatever. Potentially make another round of, for me, life changing money? I probably know the correct answer is sell some and keep some but for the first time I feel this is for real. It might not be enough for an island, unless it's really small, but it would be enough for me.

I am obviously not afraid to play the odds but the stakes are getting high. If I sell or not, it'll feel like forever until earnings report arrives though.

tl/dr. Made some money. No idea what to do.

Some day you will know if your choice was the right thing or not. I have always been more afraid of not seizing the moment at the right time and taking advantage of the big opportunity than I have of actual failure of some decision or action. I never want to be the sad guy that always says if only I would have done this or that. I am playing the long game because the possible and even probable outcome will be life changing, but I am in a position that I can afford to do that. You have to assess for yourself where you are, where you want to be, and what is the best and most probable way of achieving your desired outcome. It’s hard and can require some real soul searching, but I think it’s helpful to imagine your life based on possible and probable outcomes and then be decisive and deliberate in what you choose to do.

 

[elasalle]

Not possible. Even uber-bulls like Ron Barron would immediately sell all his shares as fast as practical somewhere well below $100K. And so would other large holders. I know I would sell before it got there.

Do you have any idea what that would make the market cap?

Wouldn't that be enough for EM to head to MARS

 

[Silentk]

Magnificent ICE car seen on Twitter, can Tesla really compete?:

https://twitter.com/thefigen/status/1280607499058642945?s=21

 

[Singuy]

Wouldn't that be enough for EM to head to MARS

It's enough for Elon to buy the entire solar system from God.