Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fobble]

3% of the population and mostly rural. Not much effect I wouldn't think.

And when the flood recedes and those flooded cars need to be replaced, potentially many Teslas will be bought instead.

 

[Stretch2727]

Ok, this is way too long but since it's still the weekend and the discussions are all over the place anyway, I'll combine the story telling how I got into Tesla with an actual need for advice. All numbers in usd to make it easier.

tl/dr at the end.

I'm 50+. I have about $2k in my bank account and not much income at the moment because the virus wiped out the industry I'm in for now. Although that is slowly improving. Live in Scandinavia so no need to save for healthcare and in a decade or so I'll have basic retirement enough for rent and food but not much else. No other savings. Nobody knows I have this investment. Not even the girlfriend. No need to support anyone but myself. I don't think I've made much more than $30k in a year ever. Personally choice. Work as little as possibly. Travel a lot. Work with what I want instead of what pays well. Not quite a hippie but I've been called that.

I now have 200 shares. Might not sound like much to many of you but I had zero savings two years ago and had never owned a single stock. I unexpectedly had $15k which I somehow managed to turn into 200 shares in 18 months. Mostly through multipliers (see below) and one successful sell high/buy low. Another sell/buy almost ended badly so I'm not touching my shares again. They are for a better/earlier retirement now.

I now also have over $50k in these 5x multipliers. Bought these latest ones when the stock was at around $1k. Starting to get really nervous for when I'm gonna exit these. All this talk about $2-2,5k in the short term is not helping. They'll be worth something like $125k at $2000 and $250k+ at $2500

Taxes is not an issue.

So far I've been treating this as a big gamble. If it works, it works. If it don’t, I'm not really much worse of. That's beginning to change though. Even if the share price falls 50% I'll still have ten times what I started with.

At the same time I have zero other savings, still all in on Tesla, so I can't really justify converting these to more Tesla shares even though that would probably be the smart thing in the long run.

I know I've been extremely lucky. Not only that Tesla existed but also that I somehow made mostly correct assumptions about when to buy/sell. Had I had those original $15k at any other time the last 10 years I would have needed them for daily life. Wouldn't even have thought of investing. And if I had invested in Tesla at any time before early 2019, I would have gotten out because I would have needed the money. I know for certain that I will not get a second chance making an investment this profitable.

The only thing that wasn't luck was that I actually studied full time for almost three weeks before deciding where to invest. The idea was that I needed something that gave me 10-20 times the money over 5-10 years to really make an impact. I looked into and could have bought something in solar/wind or even mining for minerals needed for batteries etc. Looked into 3D printing and robots. But I couldn't find one company that stood out and was the likely winner. The whole sectors wouldn't explode enough. I needed to find the winner in a winning sector and go all in. My first choice was SpaceX. Spent a day reading up before I realized there was no way to invest.

For some reason I hadn't really thought of cars, but SpaceX led me to Tesla. Spent a week reading and watching videos before buying in. Loved the cars but in the end it was the energy part that made me decide. Strangely enough for a different reason I had had a brief interest in batteries a few years earlier when a relative was getting solar for their summerhouse which is why I have a 2016 registration here. Had totally forgotten about that when I tried to register again in 2019.

My original plan with my first 50 shares was to hold for 5-10 years and if everything worked out perfectly the stock goes to $5-10k. Could I really have $2 million in Tsla with little else though? The exchange rate fluctuations alone could be over $10k many days. That would be tough.

Great problem to have and it might never happen. Tesla might stall. Not sure why but anything can happen. Hey, I got rich (kinda), for awhile at least, who would have thought.

What would you do? Sell the multipliers tomorrow morning? Take the $50k? If I don't and we go down to $1400 it'll be $25k instead. Hold until July 22? When it might be worth $250k or whatever. Potentially make another round of, for me, life changing money? I probably know the correct answer is sell some and keep some but for the first time I feel this is for real. It might not be enough for an island, unless it's really small, but it would be enough for me.

I am obviously not afraid to play the odds but the stakes are getting high. If I sell or not, it'll feel like forever until earnings report arrives though.

tl/dr. Made some money. No idea what to do.

This was not all luck. Impressed by the research that got you to TSLA.

Actually from your comments it sounds like money is not all that important to you. May give you the mindset to take the risk and continue. The best investors are usually ones that do not let fear of loosing take over their emotions. Sometimes this comes from already being wealthy, sometimes this can come from not being overly concerned about money.

Ultimately the decision is yours as only you know your personal situation, risk tolerance and whether you can stomach the volatility in TSLA.

 

[Singuy]

And when the flood recedes and those flooded cars need to be replaced, potentially many Teslas will be bought instead.

Nah I don't think so. Tesla will most likely not put service centers and super chargers in flood zones. These floods are actually pretty common so there's no use buying fancy cars in these areas as risk are high.

 

[oldTAVguy]

@Oveeus, I disagreed with your post. Tesla's mission is to acceslerate the world's transition to sustainable energy. Tesla wants other EV companies to succeed. We need more than Tesla to change the world. The more EV cars on the road, the better for Tesla and the better for humanity, as each EV will replace an ICE.

I think that Elon is very disappointed with the other automobile companies and has decided to put the screws to them while accelerating the transition. Why else would he be building 2 factories at the same time and have plans for at least 3 more in the works.

Each price reduction makes it that much harder for any other manufacturer to create viable competition, without taking the path of total commitment. I think he would actually keep prices higher if others were doing their part and getting the whole industry to stop with the Tesla bashing and get on board the zero emissions path.

 

[kyzhk]

@Oveeus, I disagreed with your post. Tesla's mission is to acceslerate the world's transition to sustainable energy. Tesla wants other EV companies to succeed. We need more than Tesla to change the world. The more EV cars on the road, the better for Tesla and the better for humanity, as each EV will replace an ICE.

Disagree. Battery production capacity is limited. Tesla makes the most efficient (and desirable) EVs, therefore the more battery production capacity allocated to tesla the more EVs can be produced.

i.e. for a given volume of battery production capacity and a given demand for EVs in different segment, total EVs produced can be maximized by allocating all capacity to Tesla. You can technically produce a lot more low energy capacity EVs, but there is limited demand for those which doesn't help the cause.

 

[Mo City]

You can always sell half lock in some nice solid gains. And if the rise continues you have a surprising upside. If it drops a lot, then you still have your locked in gains.

Unless something from the Twilight Zone happens (like TSLA reaching $5,000 during September), this is my exact plan.

I have a number in mind but will reassess when it gets close.

 

[PeterJA]

...What would you do? Sell the multipliers tomorrow morning? Take the $50k? If I don't and we go down to $1400 it'll be $25k instead. Hold until July 22? When it might be worth $250k or whatever. Potentially make another round of, for me, life changing money? I probably know the correct answer is sell some and keep some but for the first time I feel this is for real. It might not be enough for an island, unless it's really small, but it would be enough for me.

I am obviously not afraid to play the odds but the stakes are getting high. If I sell or not, it'll feel like forever until earnings report arrives though.

tl/dr. Made some money. No idea what to do.

It's hard to answer your question of "what would you do?" because you didn't say the expiration date of your multipliers (I assume you mean calls). Apparently sometime after July 22. The general question that others too are asking is... when will TSLA tank again?

Of course nobody knows, but I think not soon.

I bought more shares last Thursday after posting these reasons for an imminent breakout. Friday the breakout began [edit: actually continued]. I think it's not done. I think investor sentiment has turned a corner because of all the good news that has either arrived or is highly likely to arrive soon. FUD is no longer working. Scumbag-analyst downgrades are no longer working. Elon is joking about bidets on Instagram. Big Money and Robinhood retailers are both waking up.

What I would do is act like a longterm investor and HODL as long as possible. But that's me. You say the next 10 days will "feel like forever," but you're not afraid. Which is it? Are you a lucky gambler who needs a rest... or a longterm investor who believes in this company?

 

[Big Time]

Gonna be bright eyed and bushy tailed tmrw morning. Ready for anything, but not overly anxious and trigger happy.

 

[vikings123]

Elon seems to be indicating that the SR version of model Y will never be made.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1282499399562588160?s=21

 

[StealthP3D]

We do miss going to the movie theater, which we did often. We liked to go on off days and off times, back row, middle and many times were either alone in the theater or with just a few others.

If that's the case, why don't you just have a contractor add a big-screen theater wing onto your house?

 

[StealthP3D]

3% of the population and mostly rural. Not much effect I wouldn't think.

I agree. Even if you assume it had a much larger than reasonable impact to Q3 deliveries, that impact would be completely lost in the noise due to the momentum of natural growth Q1-Q3.

 

[Prunesquallor]

If that's the case, why don't you just have a contractor add a big-screen theater wing onto your house?

Ooh, ooh. With a big popcorn machine and a hot dog rotisserie and a case full of Twizzlers!!!

 

[StealthP3D]

Tesla is on track to be the king of all forms of mobility over roads, perhaps also many other forms of terrestrial transportation.

I'm concerned with how bearish you have become. Why limit it to "terrestrial" transportation. /s

 

[lafrisbee]

We might see 100k/share tomorrow. It is possible. If you don’t agree, explain how it’s not.

No we will NOT see 100k/share tomorrow or any day for that matter.
We will ALL pass out either from excitement or alcohol long before it gets to 100k/share.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think that Elon is very disappointed with the other automobile companies and has decided to put the screws to them while accelerating the transition. Why else would he be building 2 factories at the same time and have plans for at least 3 more in the works.

Because Elon thinks bigly. I doubt he puts much time into thinking about putting other car makers out of business, just displacing as many ICE sales as possible. And the only way he can do that is to build a lot of cars at affordable price points. The other automakers that go out of business will simply be a side-effect of that.

 

[MC3OZ]

Because Elon thinks bigly. I doubt he puts much time into thinking about putting other car makers out of business, just displacing as many ICE sales as possible. And the only way he can do that is to build a lot of cars at affordable price points. The other automakers that go out of business will simply be a side-effect of that.

Also if you want to scare other automakers into going all in on EVs, this is the way to do it..

Tesla doesn't need to slow down , wait or make it easy for them, put the industry in a sink or swim race to build more EVs, that is the best way to achieve the mission and maximise market share...

How other car companies fare is entirely up to them..

 

[Artful Dodger]

That’s funny, and I’m trying to imagine a situation where I could use that line (with the addition “and I’m wearing a Rolex”) with my wife present.

I’m not yet seeing it.

She's Dansh. Mabbe don't speak English?

Cheers!

 

[Zaxxon]

No we will NOT see 100k/share tomorrow or any day for that matter.
We will ALL pass out either from excitement or alcohol long before it gets to 100k/share.

Uh, yes. I'll be selling well before the market cap hits 18T tomorrow. What can I say? I'm a weak long.

 

[Paul_SF]

OT , but maybe not...

P.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I'm very confused. Can someone recap the Model Y options available 2 weeks ago with their prices, and what's available now?

Elon's tweet an the interpretations above make this sound more bullish to me rather than a price cut.