Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

I live in Alameda County and some cities are pushing back with this order. Maybe they got some balls watching Elon do it to the County back in May? No way Elon allows another shutdown to the factory.

5 Cities Push Back After Alameda County Suspends Outdoor Dining

Has anyone seen any stats for Covid 19 at the Fremont factory recently? I haven't seen anything, but there is only so much one can read. I would hope that the Tesla factory could be a model for other large businesses.

But you never know. A good friend's wife works at a local Safeway and she got it from a co-worker and gave it to him. I came within 2 days of seeing him before he got it. Both of them are really feeling bad right now, but at home thank goodness.

 

[Causalien]

There are a number of people on this thread that have made considerable amounts of money with Tesla/TSLA and share their thoughts on trading strategy, and pertinent information we come across to share with others/discuss/debate without the vitriol that others seem to put out and bring out in others.

I agree with others who have pointed out that many of us change our investment strategies from time to time but when we do it is best to indicate the information that made us reverse/change investing course. If we don't we come off as having less credibility despite our having been successful (if we define success by who has the biggest gains/bank account). Helping others have this success is why many come here. Sharing what has worked for us in the past and what we plan to do in the future and why we suddenly change that strategy.

Personally, I do not feel the size of one's gains/bank account is the definition of success.

Yes, there are people that come here to spread FUD or just troll and they seem to go away if ignored and if not, we have the 'ignore' feature.

I am happy for you that you have achieved your level of success.

There is a conclusion that my mentor reached. That sudden increase in wealth just amplifies a person's original personality.

Some ppl realizes that and will try to seek out answers on how to reconcile with the new found wealth. Sadly, not many ppl knows the answer or have experienced it to give advice.

I can say that hookers and blow ended up being the choice for many that ended up in this predicament.

 

[Lessmog]

I generally agree.

July 22: Earnings reported. Confirmation of GAAP profit will increase S&P 500 addition positioning starting in After Hours.

Sept 15: Battery Day. My expectation is that just as Tesla described the details of the FSD chip (HW3) on that day AND announced that it was already in cars produced weeks earlier, Tesla will continue to avoid Osbourning and whatever battery tech they announce will already be in cars produced weeks earlier.

S&P 500 Announcement. I'm expecting this in Sept. The S&P 500 Index Committee does a "reconstitution" typically every quarter, but they skipped March 2020 and then just did one last month (June). CNBC Quadruple Witching. The next such event is scheduled to take effect after market close on Sept 18, 2020 (S&P Calendar spreadsheet). I'm guessing that the Committee might want to combine these two events into one, since both will have a large effect on the weightings of stocks in the index and they wouldn't want to have two such events close to one another.

Looking at S&P search for "join S&P 500", there are about 5-6 actual (not business) days from official press release announcement until additions take effect. So, that makes a likely S&P announcement for inclusion of Tesla around Sept 12-13. Which is before Shareholder Meeting/Battery Day.

Small but important correction: Date has been pushed to 22 Sept for shareholder meeting and battery day.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

I was looking at some Polestar 2 video's. Looks great -- a worthy competitor to Model 3 Long Range. I was also looking at the site to see the specifications and try to compare them to the Model 3. The only thing I would choose the Polestar over the Model 3 is that the Polestar has a heated steering wheel.
Looking over the specs of Tesla it occurred to me that a lot of things were not mentioned. Specs that would make someone choose a Model 3. For instance there is no mention in the specs about Sentry Mode or Dashcam recording. I think it is worth mentioning it in the specs. When people are comparing the two cars it could pull some potential buyers to Tesla in stead of Polestar

I also looked at the price. What I found is that here in Canada the price difference between the two cars is quite significant. The Polestar 2 is CAD 10,000 more expensive than the Tesla M3 Long Range (Polestar does offer a 0.9% financing rate though). On the Dutch site the two cars are only about EUR1,000 apart. I wonder why, both car need to be imported and are both subject to 10% import tax in Europe.

NAFTA. or the USCAM or USMCA or whatever it's called nowadays.

US & Canadian made cars flow back and forth duty free - hence the huge price gap.

 

[StealthP3D]

I was looking at some Polestar 2 video's. Looks great -- a worthy competitor to Model 3 Long Range. I was also looking at the site to see the specifications and try to compare them to the Model 3. The only thing I would choose the Polestar over the Model 3 is that the Polestar has a heated steering wheel.
Looking over the specs of Tesla it occurred to me that a lot of things were not mentioned. Specs that would make someone choose a Model 3. For instance there is no mention in the specs about Sentry Mode or Dashcam recording. I think it is worth mentioning it in the specs. When people are comparing the two cars it could pull some potential buyers to Tesla in stead of Polestar

I also looked at the price. What I found is that here in Canada the price difference between the two cars is quite significant. The Polestar 2 is CAD 10,000 more expensive than the Tesla M3 Long Range (Polestar does offer a 0.9% financing rate though). On the Dutch site the two cars are only about EUR1,000 apart. I wonder why, both car need to be imported and are both subject to 10% import tax in Europe.

Three weeks ago I e-mailed the closest Volvo dealer to inquire about ordering a Polestar 2 (just to see what the experience would be like). They gave me the run-around until finally the sales manager informed me they couldn't sell me a Polestar, I would have to order it remotely from Polestar. So I asked him if I bought one, would they provide warranty support. He seemed to ignore my question with a generic reply and I had to ask two more times. Finally, a day or two later he responded with a simple "We will be able to support the Polestar." But it didn't leave me with any confidence that he knew what he was talking about or their technicians would be able to support it. It was almost as if he resented that the Polestar 2 will exist.

I intended to contact Polestar and see what would be involved in purchase and how I would take delivery (being over 1000 miles from a Polestar presence) but I lost interest. I imagine these will sell in very low - extremely low volumes in N. America.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

FYI: Alameda County was placed on California's county watch list for COVID-19 transmission as of today, 7/12. No impact to the Fremont factory as of now, and no intimation that workplaces such as the Fremont factory are under consideration for closure, but this is definitely a space to watch very closely for those that would be more heavily impacted by short term price movements and/or are looking for a buying opportunity.

http://www.acphd.org/media/591931/press-release-2020.07.12.pdf

Very useful info, @Cherry Wine - thanks for posting.

 

[bhtooefr]

On FSD being possible

they can auto land planes now

FSD coming

Worth noting that Garmin Autoland is... nowhere near as sophisticated as even Tesla Navigate on Autopilot, let alone FSD features.

Ultimately, it's finding a suitable runway (basically this means, looking at the weather to get wind data, looking at the runways nearby, and picking one long enough in the right direction), and then executing what I believe will be a predetermined flight plan to get there (the FAA has all sorts of procedures for entering airports, which actually makes all of this easier, because the plane will know how it needs to get there... but even if it doesn't, it knows the runway heading, location, altitude, and current altitude, so it can calculate that easily enough). It will also communicate with Air Traffic Control to tell them what it's doing, but ATC isn't being given a choice in the matter, they're merely being told what the plane is doing so that they can get everyone out of the way. All of this is procedural, and while not trivial (especially because this is FAA certified stuff), it's nowhere near the complexity of a road situation.

Contrast with Tesla Autopilot, which has to react to traffic, instead of just telling everyone to get out of its way.

 

[lafrisbee]

For giggles...
I looked at the five day chart to see if I could see something that would support what I think happened Friday really did. And I thought wait? is this the 6 month chart? They really do look similar, especially the spike at the beginning.
Nothing I could see by just looking at the week long picture could support my idea, except how well maintained the MM'ers had it on Wed and Thurs.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I live in Alameda County and some cities are pushing back with this order. Maybe they got some balls watching Elon do it to the County back in May? No way Elon allows another shutdown to the factory.

5 Cities Push Back After Alameda County Suspends Outdoor Dining

I remain convinced that for the county to seek another Fremont factory closure things would need to be dire indeed (in other words, unlikely). Frankly, I hope the cities pushing back don't get their way - there is significant evidence that bars/indoor dining are major vectors that should not be open during ongoing high levels of community spread.

 

[wipster]

Small but important correction: Date has been pushed to 22 Sept for shareholder meeting and battery day.

Thanks mate! Wasn't aware of that... or maybe I was sleeping when it was announced.

 

[smorgasbord]

Small but important correction: Date has been pushed to 22 Sept for shareholder meeting and battery day.

Thanks - and you're right it's important, as if my S&P guesses are correct, that would be after S&P 500 inclusion. Which means consideration of the competing stock price effects (negative since after inclusion rush, positive due to battery day announcements).

 

[Lessmog]

Interrupting this natty banter for an important cat twit
https://twitter.com/i/status/1282057576205692933

 

[Bet TSLA]

I think TT is a successful short term trader using high margins. I think to trade this way you need to change your thinking and positions a lot to try to time market highs to protect your high profits on any run up.
To a buy and hold trader he might seem to change his views week to week but to a short term trader it makes sense.
I trade this way too and I have been very, very successful as my edge comes from only being long on Tesla.
Brokerage firms tell us about 90 per cent of short term traders loose money, but the 1 percent of the winning short term traders can be very successful.

And why do you think this? If you go through his posts and track TSLA ,you'll find that he's almost never right. You think that leads to success? Or you think he doesn't trade the way he posts? Or is it all just BS? This being the intertubes, he might be a dog, right? As might I. In any case, I've put him on ignore so his posts won't irritate me any more.

 

[wipster]

Three weeks ago I e-mailed the closest Volvo dealer to inquire about ordering a Polestar 2 (just to see what the experience would be like). They gave me the run-around until finally the sales manager informed me they couldn't sell me a Polestar, I would have to order it remotely from Polestar. So I asked him if I bought one, would they provide warranty support. He seemed to ignore my question with a generic reply and I had to ask two more times. Finally, a day or two later he responded with a simple "We will be able to support the Polestar." But it didn't leave me with any confidence that he knew what he was talking about or their technicians would be able to support it. It was almost as if he resented that the Polestar 2 will exist.

I intended to contact Polestar and see what would be involved in purchase and how I would take delivery (being over 1000 miles from a Polestar presence) but I lost interest. I imagine these will sell in very low - extremely low volumes in N. America.

In addition to the other items brought up, the Polestar also doesn't include Superchargers and OTA software updates.

 

[JusRelax]

In addition to the other items brought up, the Polestar also doesn't include Superchargers and OTA software updates.

Does anybody know the production capacity of the polestar 2? I spent about an hour trying to find it but couldnt find any article that stated it. The only info I could find is that the polestar 1 production rate was less than 500 per year.

Considering that it's so hard to find a production rate for the polestar 2, I have to assume that, even though it currently seems like the closest thing to a somewhat competitive tesla competitor, the production ramp of it would be very slow.

 

[dmunjal]

I remain convinced that for the county to seek another Fremont factory closure things would need to be dire indeed (in other words, unlikely). Frankly, I hope the cities pushing back don't get their way - there is significant evidence that bars/indoor dining are major vectors that should not be open during ongoing high levels of community spread.

The new order isn't about bars or indoor (never been allowed) dining but restricting OURDOOR dining. Yet, indoor businesses like Target, Costco, and Tesla Fremont are still allowed to be open.

 

[wipster]

Does anybody know the production capacity of the polestar 2? I spent about an hour trying to find it but couldnt find any article that stated it. The only info I could find is that the polestar 1 production rate was less than 500 per year.

Considering that it's so hard to find a production rate for the polestar 2, I have to assume that, even though it currently seems like the closest thing to a somewhat competitive tesla competitor, the production ramp of it would be very slow.

From TechCrunch.com:
It’s not clear just how many Polestar 2 vehicles will be produced; Polestar has told TechCrunch that it is in the “tens of thousands” of cars per calendar year. Those numbers will also depend on demand for the Polestar 2 and other models that are built in the same factory.

 

[anthonyj]

We might see 100k/share tomorrow. It is possible. If you don’t agree, explain how it’s not.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Ok, this is way too long but since it's still the weekend and the discussions are all over the place anyway, I'll combine the story telling how I got into Tesla with an actual need for advice. All numbers in usd to make it easier.

tl/dr at the end.

I'm 50+. I have about $2k in my bank account and not much income at the moment because the virus wiped out the industry I'm in for now. Although that is slowly improving. Live in Scandinavia so no need to save for healthcare and in a decade or so I'll have basic retirement enough for rent and food but not much else. No other savings. Nobody knows I have this investment. Not even the girlfriend. No need to support anyone but myself. I don't think I've made much more than $30k in a year ever. Personally choice. Work as little as possibly. Travel a lot. Work with what I want instead of what pays well. Not quite a hippie but I've been called that.

I now have 200 shares. Might not sound like much to many of you but I had zero savings two years ago and had never owned a single stock. I unexpectedly had $15k which I somehow managed to turn into 200 shares in 18 months. Mostly through multipliers (see below) and one successful sell high/buy low. Another sell/buy almost ended badly so I'm not touching my shares again. They are for a better/earlier retirement now.

I now also have over $50k in these 5x multipliers. Bought these latest ones when the stock was at around $1k. Starting to get really nervous for when I'm gonna exit these. All this talk about $2-2,5k in the short term is not helping. They'll be worth something like $125k at $2000 and $250k+ at $2500

Taxes is not an issue.

So far I've been treating this as a big gamble. If it works, it works. If it don’t, I'm not really much worse of. That's beginning to change though. Even if the share price falls 50% I'll still have ten times what I started with.

At the same time I have zero other savings, still all in on Tesla, so I can't really justify converting these to more Tesla shares even though that would probably be the smart thing in the long run.

I know I've been extremely lucky. Not only that Tesla existed but also that I somehow made mostly correct assumptions about when to buy/sell. Had I had those original $15k at any other time the last 10 years I would have needed them for daily life. Wouldn't even have thought of investing. And if I had invested in Tesla at any time before early 2019, I would have gotten out because I would have needed the money. I know for certain that I will not get a second chance making an investment this profitable.

The only thing that wasn't luck was that I actually studied full time for almost three weeks before deciding where to invest. The idea was that I needed something that gave me 10-20 times the money over 5-10 years to really make an impact. I looked into and could have bought something in solar/wind or even mining for minerals needed for batteries etc. Looked into 3D printing and robots. But I couldn't find one company that stood out and was the likely winner. The whole sectors wouldn't explode enough. I needed to find the winner in a winning sector and go all in. My first choice was SpaceX. Spent a day reading up before I realized there was no way to invest.

For some reason I hadn't really thought of cars, but SpaceX led me to Tesla. Spent a week reading and watching videos before buying in. Loved the cars but in the end it was the energy part that made me decide. Strangely enough for a different reason I had had a brief interest in batteries a few years earlier when a relative was getting solar for their summerhouse which is why I have a 2016 registration here. Had totally forgotten about that when I tried to register again in 2019.

My original plan with my first 50 shares was to hold for 5-10 years and if everything worked out perfectly the stock goes to $5-10k. Could I really have $2 million in Tsla with little else though? The exchange rate fluctuations alone could be over $10k many days. That would be tough.

Great problem to have and it might never happen. Tesla might stall. Not sure why but anything can happen. Hey, I got rich (kinda), for awhile at least, who would have thought.

What would you do? Sell the multipliers tomorrow morning? Take the $50k? If I don't and we go down to $1400 it'll be $25k instead. Hold until July 22? When it might be worth $250k or whatever. Potentially make another round of, for me, life changing money? I probably know the correct answer is sell some and keep some but for the first time I feel this is for real. It might not be enough for an island, unless it's really small, but it would be enough for me.

I am obviously not afraid to play the odds but the stakes are getting high. If I sell or not, it'll feel like forever until earnings report arrives though.

tl/dr. Made some money. No idea what to do.

 

[RobStark]

I was looking at some Polestar 2 video's. Looks great -- a worthy competitor to Model 3 Long Range. I was also looking at the site to see the specifications and try to compare them to the Model 3. The only thing I would choose the Polestar over the Model 3 is that the Polestar has a heated steering wheel.
Looking over the specs of Tesla it occurred to me that a lot of things were not mentioned. Specs that would make someone choose a Model 3. For instance there is no mention in the specs about Sentry Mode or Dashcam recording. I think it is worth mentioning it in the specs. When people are comparing the two cars it could pull some potential buyers to Tesla in stead of Polestar

I also looked at the price. What I found is that here in Canada the price difference between the two cars is quite significant. The Polestar 2 is CAD 10,000 more expensive than the Tesla M3 Long Range (Polestar does offer a 0.9% financing rate though). On the Dutch site the two cars are only about EUR1,000 apart. I wonder why, both car need to be imported and are both subject to 10% import tax in Europe.

They are optioned differently.

Polestar 2 has a hatch that has automatic foot operation.

There is zero doubt that all Teslas offer the best value proposition.

Best car in class doesn't get 100% market share.

Some will pick Polestar 2 on styling, some Europeans will buy Polestar 2 because they can get it now versus waiting for Model Y. Some because it has native Android OS that they are extremely comfortable with. And YES some because it has heated steering wheel.

I have equally no doubt that Tesla can sell every Model 3/Y it can make WITHOUT DISCOUNT.

Because every automaker sells every car it makes.