Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chunky Jr.]

If my heart rate went up 30% every time I hit refresh today, does that count as exercise?

 

[Sudre]

Could not agree more.

For all the newbies just look at the 52 week high/low before you invest.

52-wk high 1,794.99
52-wk low 211.00

Ok this was an unusual past year but find me another stock that has this volatility/range.

HODL is an understatement for my 5 years in TSLA.

I guess one could say that's TSLAs real range anxiety.

 

[vikings123]

I like this guys reply to Elon’s wow:

View attachment 564297

lol imagine the volatility tomorrow if he actually said something about the stock price. This guy probably has some short term options or just got in today. Regardless Elon is just the most polarizing figure for TSLA stock price, there is nothing in between. To the moon or to the next support level. No wonder day traders and swing traders call this the best stock ever.

 

[PeterJA]

Forgive me but once again I feel it's time to...

Ya gotta have balls the size of church bells

I don't have church bells in my pants because I understand two facts:

1) This stock is probably the safest investment that exists, because this company is marching toward global domination of several giant industries, with historic tailwinds and no credible competition.
2) Stock price gyrations on the way to the moon mean nothing if you hold your shares. Paper losses are not losses unless you sell.

Hang in there. If you cannot get Zen about it and realize how useless money can be in the end I recommend laying off the trading. It can be like a drug where you only feel normal when you make money but are driven to despair when you lose.

I respect the kind advice, but he lost nothing. That might be kinder to point out.

Looks like I am still not very good at manage anxiety yet.
I bought NIO at $15.55 220 shares, TSLA at $1496 10 share ... which is less than 3% of my existing share at much lower price. Besides, I am just switching from MSFT to the two; I am not even using my living expense money.

Still when I see the lowering AH price, I feel quite bad and cannot focus on work. Especially when the Feb 4 nightmare coming back, and today is actually worse than that day.

I've suggested to you before that you educate yourself about Tesla, so you would understand Fact #1 above. But even if you haven't done that, I don't understand why you and others here can't seem to grasp Fact #2.

You've seen the stock go down and back up... how many times now?... dozens? How many more times do you need to see this before you grasp the obvious trend direction?

Perhaps I'm being too harsh, but I for one am tired of trying to keep up with a thread that is one-quarter educational posts and three-quarters shrieks of joy or despair. TSLA is a volatile stock that is headed way up. Please try to get over it, so this thread can be more signal and less noise.

 

[juanmedina]

YouTubers talking about the S&P 500 inclusion ... No bueno

 

[Artful Dodger]

I get the sentiment, but I'm pretty sure that's the first $250 TSLA drop we've ever had (at least in this kind of time frame), so I'm not sure how you're used to it . (Yes, I know we've seen similar percentage drops before).

Only one other trading day in TSLA history has had a larger percentage drop intraday.

That was March 19, 2020 when we went from a High of $452.00 to a Low of $358.46 for a -26.1% drop.

Mar 19 was also a high volume day with 30.2m shares traded, but the total amount of money traded was only $12.49B or just 19.4% of today's ATH of $64.32B in trades.

Today was 5x bigger than the previous high intraday swing.

Cheers!

 

[Curt Renz]

Piper Sandler Raises TSLA Price Target to $2,322

"In our view, Tesla is the most consequential company in the mobility ecosystem, and this is unlikely to change in the next decade. We are increasing our price target to $2,322 after adjusting our DCF model to reflect faster-than-expected share gains and, more importantly, a detailed analysis of Tesla's software opportunity." - Alex Potter

Since this was released after regular hours, I suspect that Alexander Potter will be invited to media interviews tomorrow. He's highly rated by TipRanks: https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/alexander-potter

Piper Sandler is the post-merger name for Piper Jaffray, a well respected independent financial firm based in Minneapolis, not Wall Street. Their chief technical analyst Craig Johnson was one my regular TV guests, and the person who alerted me to Tesla in early 2013.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Hi folks,

I wrote this on Sat. afternoon, and wanted to share it with you here:

I think there will be more bumps up, likely more than the +10% we saw on Friday. but the short squeeze, if any, will be protracted and not short term.

The reason I say this is because I'm convinced now that the only shorts remaining with large positions against TSLA are very large Brokerages like UBS or MorganStanley, with literally Trillions of dollars of assets under management, making any margin call a non-issue for them. Further, the Federal Reserve is backstopping Wall St. right now, so they can take risks and play the long game.

Look what happened in After-hrs trading for TSLA on Friday. Following an historic runup to a new ATH, and there was no change in the SP. No Margin calls went out, no forced covering to drive up the SP.

There was NO BUMP in the SP after-hrs. That means NO margin calls. That means whoever lost that ~$2B in their short position on Friday could absorb that kind of hit without even a hickup. Jonah and the whale?

So I believe these large brokerages will slowly unwind their short positions, as they have been gradually doing throughout 2020, but will continue to try to take advantage of macros and 'news' to decrease their losses.

Concerning the S&P inclusion, I'll go with the mainstream opinion here that there'll be a bump during the runup, and a 'sell the news' reaction eventually, like most all other notable case studies of other equities being added to the NDX.

So, Imma watch 'n' see wot happens.

Cheers!

"Very large brokerages"? Who else can afford to dump $32B in their owned shares to dump the SP $275 for a temporary victory? Who else is accumulating for what we now know will become the largest Mkt Cap equity on Wall St?

Rhetorical question. The answer is AJonah and the Whales.

Cheers!

 

[FrankSG]

I wonder whether these numbers are skewed by fractional shares.

I'm pretty sure that an account with fractional shares is counted. Therefore, it's likely the average number of shares per account holding TSLA has dropped as of late, because accounts that bought in the $500s and $600s likely bought more shares than the ones buying today.

Maybe the average # of shares would be something like 5 shares? Pretty much a guess though. There are undoubtedly accounts with 100s of shares as well that bring up the average significantly.

 

[mickle]

Energy and Solar revenue is totally speculative right now. In 2019 it accounted for 6% of revenue. It was 9% in 2018. If it re-accelerates and becomes 10-15%-plus analysts will take notice and start to model it.

This note is about FSD software revenue. The takeaway should be $60 billion in FSD revenue in 2030. $182 billion FSD revenue in 2040. All at 90% gross margin.

I would argue that FSD working and producing income is much more speculative than growth in Energy and Solar.

 

[FrankSG]

I don't understand why people make such a big deal about this. They literally could have bought $1 worth of Tesla, or only 0.00067 of a share to get included in those counts. (So that 50k users could account for as few as 33 shares purchased today.) And somebody else that already had one share and added 1,000 more wouldn't change the count at all. In my opinion there just isn't enough information to make it valuable.



Of course they are.

It's still a data point, and an indicator of sentiment among a certain group of investors.

My guess (but it is a guess obviously) would be that these 50k users bought something on the order 100k shares combined.

 

[lafrisbee]

After-action Report: Mon, Jul 13, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Sells Off from Stratospheric Heights (back to Upper-BB A/hrs)"

Traded: $64,321,581,181.00 ($64.32 B)
Volume: 38,987,036 ; Biggest $$ Day Ever
VWAP: $1,649.82

Closing SP / VWAP: 90.56%
(TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = $277.667B / $169.519B = 163.80%​

TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $110.399B

'Short' Report:

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 53.9% (51st Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 45.5% (46th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 1.50% of Short Volume (54th Percentile Rank)​

View attachment 564292

Comment: "WVAP = $1.31 > Opening SP "

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

So those 2 or 3 times I asked about the BB (and was joking) I guess we should have looked at it for real.

 

[RobStark]

In the brands ranking, the leader Renault (28%, up 2%) is now in recovering mode, with Peugeot (21%) firm in the 2nd spot, while DS (7%, down 1%) is in the 3rd spot, ahead of Tesla (6%, down 1%).

EV Sales: France June 2020

 

[Bet TSLA]

People who are interested in Alex Potter's analysis should probably listen to Rob Maurer interviewing him in December and then again in May. Valuable for understanding what it all means. Three salient items: Alex knows the China auto market very well; Alex characterized price targets as rather non-substantive signposts, not meant to be real, and irrelevant to the paying customers; and he provides some explanation for why nobody includes Tesla Energy (basically it's too hard and nobody else does).

That's my memory without going back and listening to them again. I'm providing YouTube links, but I listened to them as podcasts.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Done! orders completed

rather than to moan about "overpaying" on my $1760's purchases, I'm going to celebrate my 1 day 69 trifecta as a TSLA long.

bought 1569, 1669, & 1769 in 1 day. If they hit a 1469, I will buy that too if it happens today.

Thanks to everyone on this board for your perspective & insight!

Doh, missed it by that much!

Low: $1,471.11​

My experience is that on down days like this the SP will fade throughout the day and settle near its bottom just before the Close.

Cheers!

 

[jhm]

The calories burned over S&P 500 inclusion astonished me — indeed, a personal learning experience. For myself, I view Q2 profitability as a greater event. I say that, for only one reason, market psychology.

The stalwarts of Wall Street, continue to see Tesla through an automotive filter. As we enter earnings season, the stark contrast between TSLA being profitable and the industry losing billions will be an inflection point. Recall Tesla’s first profitable quarter in 2013. I’m convinced the emotional reaction by the market will be profound.

So much is written about data and evidence being baked into a share price, yet market reactions to released news events are often naive.

July 22 draws nigh.

Dark pool trading exists to enable large positions in stocks to change hands without moving the price in public markets.

 

[FrankSG]

Shanghai loves Tesla

Apparently they inspect over 100 cars every day, some days as high as 300-400, and 1,000+ cars per day during the last few days in a quarter.

 

[Boomer19]

Hi folks,

I wrote this on Sat. afternoon, and wanted to share it with you here:



"Very large brokerages"? Who else can afford to dump $32B in their owned shares to dump the SP $275 for a temporary victory? Who else is accumulating for what we now know will become the largest Mkt Cap equity on Wall St?

Rhetorical question. The answer is AJonah and the Whales.

Cheers!

the brokerages themselves don’t trade.
unless you’re referring to the prop side of investment banks, HFTs and hedge funds with direct connections to exchanges, large customers of prime brokerages, then large customers of regular brokerages etc etc

but yes, seemed like some heavy hitters spent a lot of $ to get that reversal kindling today before the rest jumped in to pounce

it’s like everyone with a short term trading position long or short was scared sh!tless to hold with any conviction. talk about turbulence!

 

[S3XY]

If he’s still in the market he managed to turn a $5 million gain into a $1 million loss. That can do things to a person, and this morning he already wasn’t in the best place to start with. The stress of such huge sums and moves can become too much, for anyone. I hope he uses his 7 day breather from TMC to regain some balance.

He's always seemed a bit unbalanced to me.

 

[shootformoon]

How many people are sick of the extremists on this board? They bully anyone with different views/styles of investing tsla.

Some veiled their intolerance by stating TT007 is bragging his wins and even claiming his posts are low info. Look at this board. The noise signal ratio raised to another high these days and I did not see these bullies complained. Maybe they are part of the noise but can't tolerate messages disguised as noise. As pointed out, if you cannot understand his message, it is your loss and problem. And it is so sad you blame this on him.

Yes you can dislike his style but plenty of imperfect styles exist on this board. Last time I checked this is a public board. You can create your own private club if you attack people on their styles only.

This is an investment board. Remember this please.

Many disagree ratings with my comment when TT stormed out, I had similar feelings even if I dint post them when @KarenRei and @Fact Checking left.

I think its always a shame when infighting leads to storming out under temper, and calls of "don't let the door hit you on the way out"

Reasoned discussion takes many viewpoints. We now have one less point of view, regardless of the morality of being a day trader, long or short. That's the loss, and it bothers me that some celebrate it. He wasn't a troll, he was just in it for the money not the mission.

Ah well it takes all kinds of people to make an energy revolution.